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SUNDAY SERVICE PLAYS

SUNDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Jeff Alexander Sports

1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays -158

The Rays just won't go down at home.  The Rays are 20-2 in their last 22 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200, 8-1 in their last 9 home games with the total set at 9.0-10.5, 7-1 in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and 14-3 in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Marlins are 1-5 in their last 6 interleague games, 1-5 in their last 6 road games, and 0-4 in their last 4 interleague games as an underdog.  Take Tampa .

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Priceless Picks

1 Unit on Cleveland Indians UNDER 8.5

Sabathia is among the best UNDERS bets in baseball and we'll make that wager here.  First off, the Under is 44-11-3 in the Indians last 58 Sunday games.  The Under is 8-1 in Sabathia's last 9 starts overall, 6-0 in Sabathia's last 6 home starts, and 5-0 in Sabathia's last 5 Sunday starts.  The Under is also 12-5-2 in the Padres last 19 interleague games as an underdog of +110 to +150 and  4-1 in Maddux's last 5 starts as a road underdog of +110 to +150.  Bet the Under.

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Black Magic Sports

1 Unit on Kansas City Royals +137

Kansas City is a solid free pick today with Ace Gil Meche taking the ball for the Royals.  Meche is 10-5 against the money line in road games vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons.  Meche is also 18-11 against the money line in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) since 1997.  Gil Meche loves the role of the underdog and he pitches his best ball on the road as indicated by his numbers.  Meche owns a 3.95 ERA in 7 road starts this season.  Micah Owins is winless in his last 3 outings with a 9.22 ERA to show for it.  Meche is on top of his game while Owings is faltering.  I’ll give the Royals a great shot at winning on the road Sunday.  Cash in with Kansas City as the underdog.

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Black Widow Sports

1* on Houston Astros +119

Houston’s Ace in Roy Oswalt will out-duel the Yankees’ Ace in Chien-Ming Wang Sunday.  The Yankees are just 14-19 (-10.0 Units) against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150 this season.  Oswalt is 15-2 (+13.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) over the last 3 seasons.  The Wizard is coming into form with a 3.15 ERA over his last 3 starts for Houston.  Chien-Ming Wang has been struggling mightily with a 6.36 ERA over his last 3 starts for New York.  The great price we are receiving on Houston at home is too good to pass up.  Take the Astros on the Money Line.

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Info Plays

3* on Tampa Bay Rays -152
(Listing Jackson only)

Play Against - Road teams (FLORIDA) - excellent power team (>=1.5 HR's/game) vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start against opponent starting a well rested pitcher who is working on 5 or 6 days rest.  This is a 68-32 ML System hitting 68% since 1997.  The Marlins can hit the long ball, but Edwin Jackson is a stud on the mound for Tampa Bay who will hold the Marlins’ lineup in check.  Play On - All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (TAMPA BAY) - with a team batting average of .265 or worse on the season (AL) against opponent starting a pitcher who gave up 1 or less earned runs last outing.  This is a 150-48 ML System hitting 75.8% since 1997.  These two systems in favor of the Rays make Tampa the pick as our free play Sunday.  Bet Tampa Bay at home.

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Brian Gabrielle

LifeLock 400: Roush at Michigan

Last Week: We hate Pocono. It's a boring track, a boring race, and we posted our first shutout week of the season, losing all three of our straight-up bets and watching the guy we selected for our head-to-head wager, Kyle Busch, finish 43rd after wrecking early. Gah. We're happy to get the heck out of rural Pennsylvania. For the week, we lost 1.5 units; for the season, we've profited 6.2 units on 20 units wagered, a return of 31%, and we've given you winning weeks in 12 of 14 events. (Note that if you'd eschewed the relatively conservative betting pattern we outline below, and simply bet one unit per wager we recommend, last week you'd have lost four units, but for the season, that would still leave you with a profit of 14.74 units on 55 units wagered, a return of 26.8%. But there's clearly a bit more week-to-week risk associated with that strategy.)

Take Carl Edwards (+500), 1/6th unit. This week, the Smokeless Set heads to the Irish Hills of Michigan for a far more enjoyable race to watch (and hopefully to wager upon). Edwards has won three events this year, and all have come at aero-sensitive tracks like Michigan International Speedway. Also, he was dominant at MIS's sister track in Fontana back in February. He's got six top 10s in seven starts at this track, so you know he'll be close. I think he's got a great shot at taking his fourth win of the season.

Take Kyle Busch (+500), 1/6th unit. And if it's not Edwards, it'll likely as not be the younger Busch. The kid screwed us with that last-place finish in Pocono, but given what a beast he's been on downforce tracks this year, I expect him to be strong on Sunday. Plus he's got a serious attitude, and wants to show last weekend was a fluke. P.S. - it was. Before last week, Busch was riding a five-race streak in which he'd finished third or better in every event. Expect him near the front all day on Sunday.

Take Matt Kenseth (+1000), 1/6th unit. The No. 17 has definitely perked up over the last month. Just a few weeks ago it looked like Kenseth was dead in the water, but since then he's inched up to 15th in points, just three spots from the Chase, with four consecutive top-10 finishes. It definitely can be said that sometimes Kenseth lacks the killer instinct to close the deal and win races, but he's got two career victories at MIS, is part of the Roush team that dearly loves to do well at this venue because it's so close to its corporate headquarters, and he's got eight top 10s in his last 10 tries here.

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SPORTS ADVISORS

NBA FINALS

(1) Boston (15-9, 12-12 ATS) at (1) L.A. Lakers (13-6, 10-8-1 ATS)

Just one win away from their 17th NBA championship – and first in 21 years – the Celtics look to close out the Lakers when the two meet for Game 5 of their best-of-seven championship series at Staples Center in Los Angeles.

Boston fell behind by 21 points at the end of the first quarter of Game 4 Thursday and found itself down by as many as 24 before mounting a furious second-half rally en route to a 97-91 road win as 7½-point underdogs. The Celtics, now up 3-1 in the series, outscored the Lakers 57-33 in the second half to get the victory. No team in NBA history has rallied from a 3-1 deficit to win the crown.

Five Celtics scored in double figures Thursday, led by Paul Pierce’s 20 points, but the 29 combined points from reserves James Posey and Eddie House proved to be the key as they shot 6-for-12 from beyond the 3-point line. In defeat, Los Angeles saw all five starts score in double figures, but start Kobe Bryant had just 17 points on 6-of-19 shooting.

Boston is perfect at the betting window in the Finals (4-0 ATS) and has cashed in five straight games and six of its last eight dating to the Eastern Conference finals against Detroit. Los Angeles, conversely, is 0-4 ATS in the Finals and has followed an 8-1-1 ATS run by going just 4-6 ATS in its last 10.

The Celtics are now 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS against the Lakers this season (3-0 ATS at Staples). Prior to covering the spread in the last six battles, Boston had gone 1-7 ATS against Los Angeles.

Even with Thursday’s win and cover, Doc Rivers’ Celtics are still just 3-8 SU and 4-7 ATS on the highway in the playoffs. But they are on positive pointspread runs of 6-0 against the Pacific Division, 13-2 against the Western Conference (6-0 last six), 4-1 on Sunday and a lengthy 26-11-1 in their last 38 games following a spread-cover. Boston is also 10-2 ATS this year as an underdog of three points or more.

The Lakers, who had won 15 consecutive home games before Thursday’s loss, are 9-1 SU and 6-4 ATS in playoff games at Staples this year. They are also 8-4 ATS in their last 12 at home dating to the regular season. On the flip side, Los Angeles is mired in pointspread funks of 0-8-1 in the NBA Finals, 0-7 against the Eastern Conference, 0-5 against the Atlantic Division and 1-7 at home against teams with a winning road record.

Game 4’s 188-point total fell just short of the 191½-point line, making the under now 3-1 in the Finals (2-0 in L.A.). Meanwhile, the under is on streaks for Boston of 6-2 overall and 7-0 on the highway. For Los Angeles, the under streaks include 8-1 overall and 5-0 at home. However, the over is still 11-6 in the Lakers’ last 17 battles against Atlantic Division foes.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON


INTERLEAGUE

Chicago Cubs (44-25) at Toronto (35-35)

The Cubs send lefty Ted Lilly (6-5, 5.13 ERA) to the mound in the rubber match of a three-game series with the Blue Jays, who are set to go with Jesse Litsch (7-2, 3.42) when the two meet inside the Rogers Centre.

Chicago rebounded from Friday’s 3-2 loss in Toronto with a 6-2 win on Saturday, scoring all six runs of Toronto ace Roy Halladay. The Cubs are 15-4 in their last 19 outings, including 5-1 in their last six. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are mired in a 3-7 slump, alternating wins and losses in their last seven contests (all at home).

In addition to their 15-4 overall run, Lou Pinella’s Cubs are on positive runs of 4-1 on Sundays, 8-2 against teams with a winning record and 17-6 against right-handed starters, but they’re still just 1-5 in their last six against teams from the A.L. East. The Blue Jays also sport several hot streaks, including 29-12 at home against southpaws, 8-1 on Sundays, 6-2 in interleague matchups and 4-1 at home against N.L. squads.

Chicago has won six of Lilly’s last eight starts overall, including Tuesday when he gave up three runs on four hits in 6 2/3 innings of a 10-5 victory in Atlanta. Despite that win, Lilly is just 2-3 with a 5.22 ERA in seven starts on the road. Also, he hasn’t faced the Blue Jays since 2003 as a member of the A’s, but for his career he is 1-1 with a 5.32 ERA in 23 2/3 innings against Toronto.

Litsch has a 2.95 ERA in his last three outings, and he’s held the opposition to three earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts, but he’s come up empty in his last two, losing 5-1 at the Yankees on June 4 and getting a no-decision in his team’s 3-2 home loss to Seattle on Monday. Litsch gave up 10 hits in each of those two contests.

When working north of the border, Litsch is 3-0 with a 2.97 ERA in six contests, but Toronto has dropped all three of his no-decisions at home. The right-hander is 0-1 in two career interleague outings – both against the Phillies – allowing six runs on 12 hits in seven innings of work.

With Lilly on the hill, the Cubs are 6-2 in his last eight and 4-0 when he faces a team with a winning record but just 3-7 with him on the road and 0-4 when he toes the rubber on Sundays. With Litsch pitching, the Jays are 7-1 when he faces a team with a winning record and 6-2 when coming off a loss.

For the Cubs, the under is on streaks of 4-1-1 overall, 36-16-5 on the road, 47-23-5 against right-handed starters and 4-0-1 in interleague. For Toronto, the under runs include 4-0-1 at home, 20-8-2 at home against southpaws, 13-3-2 against the N.L. Central and 24-8 on Sundays.

Finally, in head-to-head battles between these teams, the under is 6-1-1 in the last eight overall and 4-0-1 in the past five in Toronto. 

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER


N.Y. Yankees (36-33) at Houston (33-36)

It’s a battle of aces when the Yankees send Chien-Ming Wang (7-2, 4.30) to the hill to take on the Astros and Roy Oswalt (5-6, 5.06) at Minute Maid Park in Houston in this series finale.

New York will be going for the sweep today, having won the first two games of this series by scores of 2-1 and 8-4. Overall, New York is on an 8-3 tear, while the Astros have managed just three wins in their last 11. Also, the Yankees have now won four of the five meetings between these two dating back to 2003.

Joe Girardi’s Yankees are also on runs of 21-7 on Sundays, 40-14 in Game 3 of a series, 11-4 in interleague games against right-handed starters and 20-7 against the N.L. Central. Meanwhile, in addition to their ongoing 3-8 slump, the Astros are on slides of 0-5 against the A.L. East, 1-6 at home, 2-9 against right-handed starters and 0-5 in the third game of a series.

Wang has been a road warrior this season, going 4-0 with a 2.38 ERA in six starts, five of them Yankees victories. On Tuesday in Oakland, he held the A’s to one run on seven hits in 7 1/3 innings of a 3-1 victory, New York’s fourth win in a row with Wang on the hill. In his lone interleague start this season, the right-hander gave up seven runs on six hits in 7 2/3 innings of an 11-2 loss to the Mets.

Oswalt is coming off one of his best efforts to date, as he held the Brewers to one run on five hits in seven innings of a 6-1 victory, improving to 3-1 with a 5.59 ERA in six starts at Minute Maid. Prior to Tuesday’s win, the Astros had lost four straight games with their ace on the mound. In his lone interleague start this season, Oswalt gave up six runs on 11 hits in six innings, losing 6-2 loss at the Rangers.

With Wang on the hill, the Yankees are on runs of 40-15 overall, 20-6 on the road, 51-18 as a favorite, 20-6 with him as a road favorite and 8-1 on Sundays. With Oswalt starting, the Astros sport runs of 47-16 at home, 13-6 in interleague play and 13-5 when he gets four days’ rest, but they are just 1-5 in his last six as an underdog.

The over is 4-1 in Wang’s last five overall and 7-3 in his last 10 on Sunday. Conversely, with Oswalt pitching, the under is on runs of 4-1 overall (3-0 last three) and 5-1 when he’s a ‘dog.

For the Yankees, the under trends include 15-7 on the road, 4-2 overall, 4-2 as a road favorite and 17-8 on the highway against teams with a winning home record, but the over is 5-1-1 in their last seven interleague games. For the Astros, the under is 10-5-1 in their last 16 overall and 11-6-1 in their last 18 against right-handed starters, but their over streaks include 4-1-1 on Sundays, 5-1 as a home ‘dog and 12-5 in interleague play.

ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES

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James Patrick

Red Sox vs. Redlegs

Bosox have surpassed the total in 5 of 6 Sunday games and the Reds are Over in 6 of 7 Sunday affairs, while today’s starter Bailey is Over at a 4-1-1 rate at home. Our Sunday Major League Baseball selection is Boston – Cincinnati Over the Total.

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Dave Cokin

A's @ Giants
Play: Giants +110

Dana Eveland was one of my pre-season sleepers, and he's actually done pretty well for the most for the A's. But since his complete game win back on May 21, the old Eveland bugaboo has come back in a big way. Simply stated, Eveland has lost his command. 15 BB in just 14.2 IP over his last three starts is a strong negative indicator. The Giants send out Kevin Correia, who's no star by any means, but is actually a little underrated if you look beyond his career W/L ledger. Correia was lights out in his rehab stint and should have a good game here. Good value grab on the Giants to beat the A's.

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Robert Ross

Chicago Cubs at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Chicago Cubs

Taking the better team here at a price. The team with way more power, too. The Cubs are 27-11 against the money line vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game this season and 25-9 against the money line vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game this season. Take Chicago!

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Marc Lawrence

Play On: Chicago White Sox w/Contreras vs. Cook

The Pale Hose host the Rockies in the rubber match of this three game weekend set at Comiskey Park when Jose Contreras takes on Aaron Cook. Contreras has been especially sharp at home of late, winnng each of his last four starts while compiling a 1.64 ERA. On the flip side, Cook is just 6-14 in his team starts in June and 2-7 away on Sundays in his MLB career. Stay at home with Contreras and the White Sox here today.

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Scott Spreitzer

San Diego Padres at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Under

I'm playing the Under in the Padres/Indians game on Sunday. C.C. Sabathia has been almost unhittable in recent weeks. His ERA over his last 10 starts is an incredible 2.09. His full season numbers aren't that great because he started so poorly. Once he settled in, he became the same super C.C.! How is a bad NL West team going to hit him? They're not. San Diego has struggled to hit lefties anyway this season, with a poor .690 OPS. I believe Cleveland will also have trouble hitting Greg Maddux of the Padres. The veteran has posted a 3.34 ERA this season. The Tribe's offense has lacked discipline at the plate. Maddux is ideally suited to exploit that. Both teams will be leaving town after the game. Cleveland heads to Colorado to play the Rockies. San Diego could very easily be distracted by their pending trip to Yankee Stadium. This has all the look and feel of a very quickly played pitcher's duel. The Under in the Padres/Indians game is the play.

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Matt Fargo

Pittsburgh Pirates at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles

Daniel Cabrera is one guy that you are not sure what you are going to get from start to start. He could pitch a gem or he could bet blasted but the main strategy here is the fact that the Orioles offense is playing great and can back him up. Baltimore has scored 17 runs in the first two games of this series and has put up six runs or more in five of the last eight games. The bats are hitting .282 on the season against left-handed pitching including .325 over the last 10 games. Pittsburgh has lost two in a row to drop to nine games under .500 on the road and three games under .500 overall. Obviously the pitching has been hit hard and the starters ERA on the road is now a whopping 6.72. The Pirates have been one of the worst Interleague teams around as they have lost 42 of their last 57 games against the opposing league. They add to it here. Play Baltimore Orioles 1.5 Units

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Big Al McMordie

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Baltimore Orioles     
Play: Baltimore Orioles     

At 1:35pm our complimentary selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Pittsburgh Pirates. I'm sure Major League Baseball realized when it scheduled this series that it would be the first meeting of these two teams in Baltimore since the 1979 World Series, which the Pirates of course won after being down three games to one. But I don't know if they knew that they were also pitting the two teams with the worst records playing outside of their league in the regular season since Major League Baseball started interleague play back in 1997. Going into this season, the Orioles at 79-114 have an interleague win percentage of only .409, but have been outdone by the Pirates who have the only interleague win percentage below .400 at .377 (57-94). So far, in this series these records have held true to form with the Orioles taking the first two games and it probably won't get any easier for the Pirates this afternoon as lefthander Paul Maholm gets the start and although his overall numbers are not terrible, he is quite abysmal on the road with a 1-4 record and 6.82 ERA and an amazing 41 hits surrendered in just over 27 innings. Baltimore's veteran righthander Daniel Cabrera has pitched very well this season although he has gotten roughed up in his last two starts. But those were in two of the toughest places to pitch in the AL: the Metrodome and Boston's Fenway Park. Take the Orioles.

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Ross Benjamin

Pittsburgh (Maholm) @ Baltimore (Cabrera)
Pick: Over 9.0

The Baltimore starting pitcher Daniel Cabrera enters the game in bad form off of his last 4 starts posting a 6.98 ERA, a 1.81 WHIP, and walking 3 more men than he had struck out. In his last 6 starts Cabrera has allowed 6 home runs in 37.2 innings. Cabrera has seen just 6 of his last 22 home starts go under the total. In 5 starts on the road this season the Pittsburgh starter Paul Maholm has posted a lofty 6.83 ERA. In his last 5 starts overall Maholm has allowed 7 home runs in 35.2 innings. Maholm has seen 7 of his last 8 starts go over the total versus a team with a win percentage of less than .500. The Orioles have gone over the total in 6 of their last 7 games versus a left-handed starting pitcher. Baltimore is hitting .285 as a team versus left-handed pitching at home this season and .317 as team versus southpaws over the last 10 games. Pittsburgh has gone under the total just 7 times this season in 32 road games and just 21 times over the last 72 on the road. Play on over the total.

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JB's COMPUTER PICKS

Boston Red Sox -160

New York Yankees -135

St. Louis Cardinals +125

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Karl Garrett

Cubs at TORONTO -120 

The G-Man's Saturday comp play was washed away, as the Rangers and Mets were done in by the rain drops.

Still on a 10-2 comp play run as I enter play for Sunday.

Afternoon baseball action from Canada today, and I will take the Blue Jays to take today's rubber game against the Cubs.

Chicago is just 15-17 away from the Friendly Confines this season, and starter Ted Lilly has been a bog part of the Cubs struggles on the road this year, as his 2-3 mark with an over 5 ERA shows.

Toronto starter Jesse Litsch is 3-0 at home this season with a 2.97 ERA, and the G-Man will side with Litsch and his Jays to hand the Cubs another road setback.

Take Toronto in this one.

3* TORONTO

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Bobby Maxwell

N.Y. Yankees -125 at HOUSTON

We're 16-7 with our last 23 FREE plays and coming today with a complimentary selection on the Yankees as they take on the Astros in Houston.

Two teams going in opposite directions in this matchup as the Yankees have won eight of their last 11 while the Astros have dropped eight of 11.

And the one consistency this season for New York has been starter Chien-Ming Wang (7-2, 4.30 ERA). Wang is 4-0 on the road with a 2.38 ERA and on Tuesday he held the A’s to one run on seven hits in 3-1 road win.

The Yankees have won his last four starts and with Wang on the hill the Yankees are on runs of 20-6 on the road, 51-18 with him listed as a favorite, 40-15 overall and 8-1 when he toes the rubber on Sundays.

Houston has Roy Oswalt (5-6, 5.06) on the mound today and he has really struggled this season. The Astros have won just once in his last five starts and he is 1-5 as an underdog.

If you haven’t noticed, the Yankees are back over .500 and they’ve taken the first two games of this series. They are playing some good baseball, including getting some very good starting pitching.

Let’s play the Yankees in this one as Wang gets the job done for them again.

3* N.Y. YANKEES

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J.R. MILLER

LAKERS -7.0

Celtics/Lakers OVER 190.5

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JEFFERSONSPORTS

EARLY RELEASE MLB FOR SUNDAY

BALTIMORE-132
CHICAGO WHITE SOX-142
BOSTON-146
TEXAS+150
MINNESOTA+130

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