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Locksmith Sports

1 Unit on D-Backs -1.5 +139 

The Giants are 3-8 in their last 11 overall and a terrible 3-11 in their last 14 games as an underdog.  The Giants are also 1-7 in their last 8 games following an off day and 1-6 in their last 7 during game 1 of a series.  The Diamondbacks are 20-6 in their last 26 vs. the National League West, 22-7 in their last 29 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200, and 5-0 in Haren's last 5 starts as a home favorite.  The Giants are also 0-4 in their last 4 meetings in Arizona .  Take the D-backs on the run line tonight as a return home gets this team going again.

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BIG AL's AMERICAN LEAGUE WINNER

Royals


BIG AL's 100% ATS SAN ANTONIO/LAKERS GAME 4 WINNER

Lakers

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Jeffersonsports

MLB Early Releases

Oakland-102
Atlanta-120
Arizona Under 8

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BEN BURNS

OVER Lakers/Spurs
Game: Los Angeles Lakers vs. San Antonio Spurs
Prediction: over Reason: I'm playing on the Lakers and Spurs to finish OVER the total. With the first three games all having finished below the total, few are ready to jump on the 'over' in Game 4. That's given us excellent value with the 'over' for what I expect to be by far the highest scoring game that we've seen yet. The fact that the Spurs scored 103 points in Game 3 wasn't particularly surprising. After all, they've averaged 98.7 points per game on this floor for the year and the Lakers have allowed an average of 101.6 in their road games. It was somewhat surprising that the Lakers managed only 84 though, as they normally average more than 108 per game. While it was a case of "too little, too late," it's worth mentioning that Kobe and co. finally came to life in the fourth quarter, scoring 27 points. It's also worth noting that they typically bounce back from a poor offensive performance by being involved in a high-scoring game the next time out. In fact, the OVER is 12-7 (63%) the last 19 times that the Lakers were coming off a game in which they scored 85 points or less. Looking back further finds the OVER at 57-45-6 their last 108 in that situation. Of course, the Spurs hold opponents to 85 points or less a lot more often than the Lakers get held to 85 or less. Since 2006, they've held 97 opponents to 85 or fewer points. The following game, they've seen the OVER go 53-43-1, which is slightly better than 55%. When considering that the 'under' is 119-72-6 in all other San Antonio games (not including the previously mentioned 97) have gone below the total, it shows a significant increase in games going OVER after the Spurs held an opponent to or below the 85 mark. The Spurs have scored 99 or more points in seven of their last eight games on this floor. During that eight game stretch, they've averaged 104 points. They know the importance of tonight's game and should be able to be effective on the offensive end of the floor once again. It's unlikely they'll keep the Lakers down again though. Prior to Sunday's game, the Lakers had scored 99 or more in 11 straight road games, averaging 107.7 during that stretch. Look for tonight's final combined score to be higher than expected, with the OVER improving to 6-3 on the season when the Lakers were coming off three consecutive games which had fallen below the total. *Blue Chip

LAKERS
Game: Los Angeles Lakers vs. San Antonio Spurs
Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers Reason: I'm taking the points with the LAKERS. I wasn't at all surprised that the Spurs won Game 3. After all, they were playing at home in a "must win" situation and they've still got the pride which comes which being defending champions. While they're still at home and this is still more or less a "must win" game (not exactly, but it might as well be) the Spurs will see a much different Laker team tonight. Despite Sunday's result, the Lakers remain a highly profitable 30-15-2 ATS on the road for the year. They won at Utah to eliminate the Jazz at Game 6 and they won both road games in the high altitude of Denver. That may not sound like much now. However, keep in mind that the Nuggets are very generally very tough to beat at home, going 33-8 during the regular season. Note that the Spurs were 0-2 SU/ATS there this year. The Lakers went in there and dismantled them, winning by a combined 24 points in the two games there. As for the Jazz, they had the best home record (37-4) in the entire league, so winning a Game 6 there was no small feat. The point that I am trying to emphasize is that the Lakers know how to win on the road. Note that they're 27-9 SU (21-14-1 ATS) the last 36 times they played with 'revenge,' facing an opponent which defeated them in the previous meeting. They're also 8-2-1 ATS the last 11 times they were listed as underdogs, 9-3 ATS the last dozen times they were underdogs of four or less. You've probably already been hearing a lot of talk about how the Spurs benefited from extra rest in between games vs. the Suns and Hornets. While I have a great deal of respect for the Spurs, there's actually a lot of validity to "all the talk." The Spurs are an older team that typically benefits from having extra rest in between games. While they had yesterday off, they don't have that luxury of any "extra rest." That being said, I expect the effects of the first three games and the lingering effects of the recent 7-game battle with the Hornets, to take a toll tonight and for the Lakers to be the "fresher" team. While I'll grab the points, I look for Kobe and co. to score the outright upset, seizing control of the series. *Main Event


BASEBALL

REDS
Game: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds Reason: I'm laying the price with CINCINNATI. I successfully played against the Reds in their tough extra-inning loss at San Diego on Sunday. The Reds rallied to take the lead in the top of the ninth, only to see the Padres tie things up in the home half of the inning. Ditto for the 11th inning, as teams each scored twice in that frame. San Diego would eventually win in the bottom of the 18th inning, dropping Cincinnati to an ugly 9-19 on the road. Thankfully, the Reds had yesterday off, as that was (obviously) a rather gruelling loss, both mentally and physically. Returning home, where they're a respectable 14-9 on the season, including a perfect 7-0 their last seven, I expect them to bounce back and start the new series and week off with an important win. Like their hosts, the Pirates have been much better at home than they have been on the road. They're a solid 15-9 at Pittsburgh but are mirror-opposites (9-15) on the road. Given how much better both teams have been in their home park, it's not all that surprising that the Pirates swept the Reds when the teams met at Pittsburgh earlier this season. However, it's been a different story when the teams have met at Cincinnati in recent seasons though. The Reds blanked the Pirates (4-0) the last time the teams faced each other here and are 12-7 the last 19 series meetings here. Like their teams, today's starting pitchers have both been better at home. Snell has been decent at home but is 1-2 with an ugly 5.85 ERA and 1.732 WHIP in six road starts. The Pirates are 1-3 in his four career starts at Cincinnati and he's 3-4 with a 5.18 ERA in eight starts against Cincinnati overall. Cueto has also struggled on the road. However, he's 2-1 with a solid 3.82 ERA and an excellent 0.939 WHIP at home, recording roughly a strikeout per inning. The Reds offense has been clicking. They banged out more than 20 hits in Sunday's loss and they've averaged greater than six runs per game during their winning streak here, outscoring opponents by a 43-25 count. They're expected to add another red hot bat to the lineup as outfielder Jay Bruce, considered one of the top prospects in baseball, is expected to get called up from Triple-A. The 21-year old has been pounding pitchers, while down at Louisville, batting .364 while adding some 'pop' to go with that average. While Bruce may not crack the starting lineup today, Snell knows that he'll surely have to deal with an old nemesis in Ken Griffey. That can't be a comforting thought, as Griffey is 6-for-14 (.429) with a homer and five walks in his career versus Snell. Look for Cueto, Griffey and co. to serve up some "payback" from the earlier sweep at Pittsburgh, winning their eighth straight home game for the first time in more than a decade. *"Revenge" GOM

ROYALS
Game: Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals
Prediction: Kansas City Royals Reason: I'm laying the price with KANSAS CITY. Losers of eight straight, the Royals have certainly come back to earth recently and have assumed their normal position at the bottom of the AL Central. They're still a (relatively) respectable 10-12 at home though, which is one game better than the Twins' 9-13 mark on the road. In fact, the Royals have won four straight here. Returning home, with Bannister facing a team he has dominated, I expect the Royals to break back into the win column. Bannister was dominant in defeating the Twins here six weeks ago. Bannister went the distance in that outing, allowing a mere three hits, one walk and one run. The Royals won 5-1. The Royals are now a perfect 4-0 in his four starts against the Twins, winning those games by a combined score of 23-6. Bannister was 3-0 with a highly impressive 1.45 ERA and 0.839 WHIP in those four games. He was particularly dominant the last three games, recording a superb 1.13 ERA and 0.708 WHIP. The Royals won those games by scores of 5-1, 8-1 and 5-1. Including the earlier victory vs. the Twins here, Bannister is 3-2 with a stellar 2.92 ERA and 1.019 WHIP at home on the season. Conversely, Blackburn has a 4.85 ERA and 1.483 WHIP in five road starts. The Twins were 1-4 in those games. Look for Bannister to outduel Blackburn here as the Royals snap their skid and drop the Twins to 2-11 when playing on the road with a line ranging from +100 to +125. *Annihilator

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Lockline Sports

Boston
SF
Atlanta
Fla

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Vic Monte

Cards


Silver Fox

Royals
Angels

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LARRY NESS

San Francisco Giants @ Arizona Diamondbacks
PICK: Arizona Diamondbacks

REASON FOR PICK: The D'backs owned MLB's best record on April 30 (20-8) but open tonight's three-game series with the Giants with a 30-21 mark, having gone 10-13 in May so far. The team's "June swoon" has come a month early, mostly due to the team's 2-8 road record this month. Arizona's 19-8 home mark is still the third-best home mark in the NL and the team is averaging an impressive 5.96 RPG in those 27 contests. That bodes well for tonight's starter, Dan Haren. Haren has not pitched well on the road this year, 0-3 with a 5.25 ERA in four starts (team is 0-4). However, he's 5-0 with a 2.27 ERA at home, with the D'backs going 5-1 in his starts. He'll face a tough mound opponent in Tim Lincecum, who takes a 1.07 road ERA (four starts) into tonight's contest. However, the problem for Lincecum is that the Giants are a poor road team (9-16) and are just 14-21 with this year vs right-handed starters, averaging a rather sad 3.3 RPG. Haren has to like seeing those numbers and he's won his last four decisions against the Giants, posting a 2.25 ERA. I like Lincecum but the Giants enter this series having lost eight of their last 11 overall, plus seven of their last 10 on the road. The Giants have lost won four straight road games to the D'backs and 11 of their last 13 here at Chase Field. The D'backs are already 4-1 against the Giants this season and have won 14 of the last 20 meetings, overall. Too much going for the home team here. Take Arizona.

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Stephen Nover

Florida Marlins @ New York Mets 
PICK: Florida Marlins

REASON FOR PICK: The Florida Marlins are huge underdogs despite having the best record in the National League.

Yes, the Marlins are playing way above their heads. But why not take the hot team (7-2 in their last nine) against a stumbling Mets squad that has no heart and a manager on tilt.

New York is 1-7 in its last eight. The Mets have a cluster injury problem in the outfield. The only reason they are this big of a favorite is because Johan Santana is on the mound.

Santana, however, has yet to pitch into the eighth inning. He has been merely good so far for the Mets, not great with a 5-3 mark and 3.36 ERA. Sananta has surrendered 10 earned runs during his past three starts in 20 1/3 innings, while allowing 29 hits.

Florida starter Andrew Miller is showing definite signs lately of living up to his vast potential. He has a 3-1 mark and 1.44 ERA during his last four starts.

Maybe Santana stops the Mets' bleeding. But at this price, I'm willing to keep fading New York and back Florida. 

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Wunderdog

Game: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati -134

Cincinnati continues to be a no-show on the road, but have been a completely different club at home. The 9-19 mark on the road is supported by a 14-9 mark at home. That is almost 30% better in their home park. The Pirates have been just 5-12 in their last 17 road games, and the opponents have plated 31 runs in Snell's six road starts. The Reds have solved Snell to the tune of a 5.18 ERA in his career. The Reds are 8-1 in their last nine home tilts. Johny Cueto has had his problems on the road, but is 3-0 at home and the Reds get the call here.

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Black Magic Sports

1 Unit on Washington Nationals +131

Washington faces a San Diego team that is hitting just .226 at home this season.  San Diego is 11-26 against the money line in night games this season.  San Diego is 1-8 against the money line after a game where the bullpen threw 7 or more innings over the last 2 seasons.  The Padres are coming off an 18-inning game against the Cincinnati Reds and will come in a bit sluggish and with an overused bullpen to boot.  Washington is 47-33 against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.  Shawn Hill is 6-0 against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.  Hill is one of the Nats’ best starters and will lead Washington to victory on the road Tuesday.  Cash in with Washington as the underdog.

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Black Widow Sports

1* on Cincinnati Reds -133

Ian Snell has not won a game for Pittsburgh since April 12th a month and a half ago.  Pittsburgh is 12-32 against the money line vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) over the last 2 seasons.  Johnny Cueto has solid control and will test these weak Pirates’ hitters by throwing strikes all game long.  The Pirates are just 1-5 in their last 6 games following a win.  The Reds have been brilliant at home as of late.  The Reds are 7-0 in their last 7 home games and 7-0 in their last 7 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5 runs.  The Reds have played the role of the favorite very well, going 8-1 in their last 9 games as the favored team.  Take the Reds on the Money Line tonight.

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EZWINNERS

MLB

2 STAR: (951) COLORADO (+$167) over Philadelphia
(Action)
(Risking $200 to win $334)

2 STAR: (957) FLORIDA (+$177) over NY Mets
(Listing Miller only)
(Risking $200 to win $354)

2 STAR: (971) TEXAS (+$136) over Tampa Bay
(Listing Padilla only)
(Risking $200 to win $272)

2 STAR: (973) MINNESOTA (+$109) over Kansas City
(Action)
(Risking $200 to win $218)

2 STAR: (963) SAN FRANCISCO (+$148) over Arizona
(Listing Lincecum only)
(Risking $200 to win $296)

2 STAR: (965) WASHINGTON (+$129) over San Diego
(Listing Hill only)
(Risking $200 to win $258)


NBA

1 STAR: (715) LA LAKERS (+4) over San Antonio
(Risking $110 to win $100)

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Stan Sharp

Lakers/Spurs over 192

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Lenny Del Genio's MLB Major Mismatch (1-0 TY)

Play on Chicago Cubs

Why are the Dodgers favored here? They are 0-9 this season away from Chavez Ravine when facing a team that outscores its opponents by at least 1 run/game. LA simply can't keep up with the Cubs offense the majors best especially when they are averaging just 3.9 runs per game vs. righties. Chicago has easily won both of Sean Gallagher's home starts this season and continue to roll up the profits at Wrigley, where they are now 20-7 after yesterday's win. Dodgers have lost 9 of their last 12 vs. .500 or better competition and starter Kuroda has only won once in six road outings this season. Chicago Cubs are our MLB Major Mismatch.

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BRYAN LEONARD

Florida Marlins @ New York Mets
PICK: Florida Marlins

The line is simply too high considering how the Mets have been playing. We were this close to going against them again last night and we are still kicking ourselves for the omission. This line is based on reputation much more than on how the teams are currently playing. Florida enters action tonight 6 1/2 games ahead of the Mets in the standings. The reasons are simple. This young team is out there having fun while the hosts are pressing. The manager is on the hot seat regardless of what the owner said yesterday and the team of high priced players are feeling the pressure.

The huge off-season acquisition of Johan Santana has paid some dividends for the Mets. He has posted a solid 5-3 record with a 3.31 ERA. The problem with Santana is that his velocity is down and he doesn't look to be the dominant starter they had expected. He had velocity issues down the stretch last season which is why the Yankees and Red Sox dropped out of the bidding. He is still an excellent starting pitcher but don't expect his past dominance.

Florida counters with Andrew Miller who is showing signs of his vast potential. In his last three starts he has allowed just two earned runs in 19 innings with a strikeout to walk ratio of 22 to 5. He has walked just 13 batters in his last nine starts. Last year he walked 39 batters in 64 innings of work. Control issues are what was holding him back from becoming the second coming of Randy Johnson. If he has indeed harnessed his stuff he will be an elite pitcher for years to come

Florida is the much better team at this point of the season and just because you are unfamiliar with their names does not mean we can't continue to make some money off them.

PLAY FLORIDA

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anyone have Sean Higgs from vegas top dogs
NBA Info-Play?

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BALFE

NBA Basketball
Lakers +4 over Spurs
San Antonio played a flawless game three, but I think they may have taken their hand off the panic button which is not good. The Lakers still are a much longer and deeper team. Tonight we will see why Kobe is the best player in the NBA. Look for the Lakers to play focused and to take back control of this series.

Major League Baseball
Rangers/Rays Over 9 -120
Padilla/Sonnanstine

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Terron Chapman

Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Texas Rangers     

The Texas Rangers hope to get back in the win column this evening when they take on the Tampa Bay Rays and Andy Sonnastine in the second game of three game set between the two. We'll back the Rangers to do just that with Vicente Padilla taking the hill.

Padilla has started the season strong and has responded when called upon to the tune of a 6-2 record and 3.33 ERA. What's even more impressive is Padilla's ability to get it done on the road. Padilla is 4-1 in road games while the Rangers have gone 6-1 in road games he starts and have won in his last 6 starts overall..

He will be opposed by Andy Sonnastine who is coming off perhaps his worst outing of the year. Sonnastine was tagged for 9 hits and 7 earned runs, including 2 hr's in a 9-1 loss at Oakland. It's not a good thing to see the Rangers and their .344 avg against right handed pitchers in the last 10 games coming to the plate if your Sonnastine. The Rangers are 5th in the majors in offense and 3rd in home runs.

At first glance it's hard to fade the Rays right now. They are no longer sneaking up on opponents and bettors alike and have the attention of the mainstream. But the Rangers are still flying below people's radar and this line reflects so. The Rangers are still 16-9 in the month of May and have been playing some of the best baseball in the majors. The Rangers are 8-2 in Padilla's last 10 road starts as a pup of +110 to +150. They are also 7-1 in their last 8 games vs. a right handed starter. Play on the Texas Rangers for 1 unit.

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Mr.Bojangles wrote:


anyone have Sean Higgs from vegas top dogs
NBA Info-Play?

If I see it I will post it

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John Ryan

New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles     

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Baltimore – Baltimore bats will not keep hitting at the low level they have been over the past 7 days based on the AiS projections. Orioles’ bullpen is very strong posting an 2.18 ERA and a 1.646 WHIP. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 46-24 and have made 34.6 units since 2002. Play on home dogs with a money line of +100 or higher with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, playing on Tuesday. The average play for this system has been +127.4 Here is a second system that has gone 33-14 and has made 19.3 units since 2002. Play on any AL team that is a poor hitting team batting <=.260 and is now facing a horrible starting pitcher posting an ERA >=6.00, WHIP>=1.700 in May games. Ian Kennedy has not pitched well this season posting a 7.27 ERA and a 1.787 WHIP and is winless in 8 starts (0-3). Baltimore starter Burres has been a strong and consistent starter this season posting a 3.16 ERA and a 1.263 WHIP on the season and also has posted a 3.10 ERA and a 1.131 WHIP over the past 3 starts. He is 2-2 when starting against NYY with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.367. NYY in a poor role noting they are just 19-25 (-14.4 Units) against the money line in road games vs. poor power teams that are averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game over the last 2 seasons. Take Baltimore 

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