TUESDAY SERVICE PLAYS

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Jim Feist

FLA Marlins @ NY Mets
Take Under

Shea Stadium is a great pitcher's park. Notice that the Mets average almost 5 runs per game on the road, but 4.5 at home. The Mets are 10th in the NL in runs scored, and a pair of aces take the mound here. Maybe Florida's 22-year old starter Andrew Miller isn't yet an ace, but he's pitching like one: a 0.95 ERA his last three starts. That's why they traded Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis for him. Mets lefty Johan Santana is an ace, the best southpaw in the game. Don't look for a lot of runs, play the Marlins/Mets under the total!

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Sports Gambling Hotline

NBA total winner for you tonight, as we are playing the Lakers-Spurs to go UNDER the posted total.

The first three games in this series have all stayed UNDER the total, as have 7 of the last 9 dating back to 2007.

It just seems the points have been very hard to come by on the losing end, as the loser in the first three contests has not topped 85 points. If that trend continues, it will be very hard for this game to head OVER the total.

8 of the last 9 series meetings in San Antonio have played LOW, and we like this one to stay LOW as well.

Play the UNDER.

2* UNDER

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Dave Cokin

MIN Twins @ KC Royals
Take MIN Twins

Nick Blackburn was rated the top minor league prospect in the Twins organization this season by Baseball America and he's done pretty well in his rookie campaign. The Twins are hanging tough in the AL Central thanks to their solid starting pitching from the kids they've called up. The Royals are heading toward another last place season. They just can't hit a lick, and that puts inordinate pressure on their hurlers. Brian Bannister has not been sharp of late and remains winless in night games for the season. I'll go for the price and back Blackburn and the Twins.

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Tony Mathews 

Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Selection: Boston Red Sox -1.5 Runs

Explanation: We will side with the Boston Red Sox -1.5 Runs as they face-off against the Seattle Mariners in Tuesday's MLB contest.

The Boston Red Sox will use starting pitcher Daisuke Matsuzaka. Daisuke Matsuzaka has pitched well this season. In fact, Daisuke Matsuzaka is a Perfect 8-0 with a 2.40 ERA on the season. In addition, Daisuke Matsuzaka has a 2.33 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Daisuke Matsuzaka pitching another great game today.

The Seattle Mariners will use starting pitcher Miguel Batista. Miguel Batista has struggled this season. In fact, Miguel Batista is 3-6 with a 6.47 ERA on the season. In addition, Miguel Batista has a 8.56 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Miguel Batista pitching another bad game today.

The bottom line, we see the Boston Red Sox getting a blowout win tonight!

Take the Boston Red Sox -1.5 Runs!

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Brian Marshall

Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Indians

Plays On: Cleveland Indians -140

Game Analyses: We see the Cleveland Indians beating the Chicago White Sox in Tuesday's MLB game.

The Chicago White Sox will be lead by starting pitcher Mark Buehrle. Mark Buehrle has struggled this season which is shown by his 4.82 ERA on season. To say the least, we see Mark Buehrle giving up many runs today.

The Cleveland Indians will be lead by starting pitcher Aaron Laffey. Aaron Laffey is having a great season which is shown by his 1.60 ERA on the season. In addition, Aaron Laffey has a 0.86 ERA in his last 3 starts. It's clear Aaron Laffey will pitch another great game today.

Take the Cleveland Indians

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Alex Smart

Arizona Diamondbacks -147

The Arizona DBacks have played their best baseball at home this season, winning 6 of their L/7 and 19 of 27 overall. Tonight they look to continue that success against a San Francisco Giants team that they have owned here at Chase Field , recording 4 straight wins and 11 of 13. The Diamondbacks are also 4-1 against the Giants this season and have won 14 of the last 20 overall confrontations. Considering the DBacks current domination in this series, and the DBacks positive home field advantage in 2008 , I like their chances of bringing us home some dough. Final notes & Key Trends: Arizona starter Dan Haren, is a perfect 5-0 at home this season along with a stingy 2.27 ERA in 6 starts. Play on Arizona 

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LT Profits

Chicago White Sox +135

The Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Indians continue to go in totally opposite direction after the White Sox took the series opener here last night, and Chicago merits a play as a nice-sized dog.

Last night’s victory brings the Sox to 10-2 in their last 12 games. The sometimes erratic Mark Buehrle has been very sharp while winning two games during this hot streak, allowing a total of two runs and nine hits in 13.2 innings. The last outing was against these Indiana, whom Buehrle limited to one and on only two hits in seven frames. The White Sox have also had a steady bullpen that now ranks sixth in the Major Leagues with a 3.14 pen ERA, so if Buehrle reverts to the bad form he is sometimes prone to, at least Chicago is a still a Bullpen System play.

Now Cleveland’s Aaron Laffey lost that last start to Buehrle, and yes we usually like to go with the pitcher that lost the first meeting when there is a pitching rematch in consecutive starts. However, it is very hard to like the Indians right now considering that they are hitting a woeful .232 as a team overall and a disgusting .210 vs. left-handed pitching over the last 10 games. As talented as Laffey seems to be with his 1.60 ERA in five starts, he still can’t win 0-0.

We will go with the hotter ad better hitting team at this nice price.

Pick: White Sox +135


Toronto Blue Jays -105

A.J. Burnett is in one of his hot streaks right now, and he gives the Toronto Blue Jay the edge over the Oakland Athletics tonight.

Burnett has been puzzling scouts for years, as he seems to have Cy Young stuff at times yet always seems to underachieve. Well, he has now recorded three consecutive Quality Starts, and he is blowing people away lately, with 31 strikeouts in 26 innings over his last four outings. He also pitched very well in his only career outing here in Oakland last season, allowing one run and just four hits with nine strikeouts in seven innings. If he is in need of assistance, he has he support of a Toronto bullpen that leads the American League with a 2.88 pen ERA.

Now we are high on Oakland’s Greg Smith, but he has tailed off lately after an excellent start. In fact, he is 0-3 in his last three appearances with a 4.48 ERA and a very high 1.53 WHIP. Smith is also catching a Toronto lineup that is starting to heat up after being dormant for most of the season, as the Jays are batting .284 as a team the last 10 games.

Both teams are carrying winning streaks into this series, with the Blue Jays having won five in a row and Oakland winning four straight, but we look for Toronto to keep their streak going behind Burnett and that fine bullpen.

Pick: Blue Jays -105

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MATT FARGO

Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals
PICK: Minnesota Twins

REASON FOR PICK: Kansas City is playing some of the worst baseball in the league right now as it has dropped eight in a row which is the league’s longest active losing skid. The Royals were just a game under .500 but now they possess the third worst record in baseball. Hitting has been horrendous as they are batting just .230 over their last 10 games. Even worse has been the pitching as Kansas City has allowed six runs or more in eight of its last 11 games.

The Twins meanwhile continue to hang around in the American League Central despite what was to be a rebuilding season. They are 25-25 and trail the White Sox by three games in the division. Minnesota took two of three in Detroit in the first series of this roadtrip so there is momentum heading into this one. The Twins have been division killers of late, winning 10 of their last 13 within the Central and they have taken four of six from Kansas City to start the season.

The Royals send Brian Bannister to the hill who started strong but has had his share of rough outings of late. He has allowed five runs or more in four of his last five starts, posting a 7.67 ERA over that span. His track record against the Twins is near spotless but the recent form is a big problem now. He has allowed six home runs over this five-game stretch as well. This comes after giving up just one long ball in his first five outings and 15 all of last season.

Nick Blackburn counters for Minnesota and he has been just the opposite as four of his last five starts have been quality outing. His ERA over those five starts is 3.66 and this is his first ever start against the Royals which is a big advantage for the pitcher. As is the fact that Kansas City has scored three runs or fewer in seven of its last eight games including a combined total of four runs in its most recent four-game series against Toronto. Play Minnesota Twins 1.5 Units

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Re: TUESDAY SERVICE PLAYS

Ferrall

AL FREE B's FOR TUES:

OAKLAND -110 on ML over Toronto--The Jays have won 5 straight and the A's have won 4 straight.  Something's got to give !  The A's have even swept the jays in Toronto this yr.  This one is in Oakland however, so I'm on the A's.  They are 16-11 at home this season and the Jays are 13-13 on the road. TAKE THE OVER 7.5 RUNS

Angels -130 on ML over Tigers--Santana looks for his 7th win against the miserable Bonderman, who gets lit up every time he pitches.  TAKE THE OVER 9.5 RUNS

BOSTON -180 on ML over Seattle--Dice K isn't losing to this lineup.  He's a perfect 8-0 and he'll work over the M's, who've lost 7 straight and suck ass !


NL FREE B's FOR TUES

Brewers +120 on ML over Braves--The Brew crew upset the Braves and Hudson here.  Atlanta is 6-16 on the road--end of story.  Atlanta just finished a homestand winning 8 of 11.

ARIZONA -160 on ML over Giants--The D'Backs have won 11 of last 13 at home vs SF, and four straight overall against them at Chase Field.  In total games played against the Giants, the D'Backs are 14 of 20 and 4-1 vs them this year already.

PADRES -135 on ML over Nationals--The Nats don't score runs and are hitting .233 as a team.  They'll face Wolf tonight and three straight lefty's in this series.    Wolf is 2-1 at home and teams hit .188 against him at Petco.  He's 9-4 in 18 starts vs Nationals.  Washington is 9-15 on the road

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KARL GARRETT

30 DIMER - SAN ANTONIO SPURS

This Lakers-Spurs series has the feel that the last Spurs series had in which the Spurs lost their first 2 games at New Orleans, but came home to rally for a pair of wins and covers on their home floor.

Stick with the home cooking again tonight, as the home team has won the last 7 series meetings, with the Spurs going 5-2 against the spread.

The Spurs looked like a completely different team on Sunday, as their big three of Parker, Ginobili, and Duncan combined for 72 points. If they can get similar production tonight, that will free up the rest of the guys to knock down their perimieter shots, and life will be good once again for the defending champs.

Look for Odom, and Fisher to struggle once again, and for the Spurs to head back to LA-LA-land all even at 2 games each.


10 DIMER - ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (-1 1/2-RUNS) Haren & Lincecum listed

The D-Backs had a rocky road trip, as they lost all 3 at Florida, and split 4 with the Braves. Look for the snakes to enjoy being back at home, and come through with some big offense tonight.

Tim Lincecum has been tough at 5-1, but lately he has been prone to the big inning, and with Arizona 19-8 at home this year, I can see the Diamondbacks pulling away in the later innings in this one.

Arizona is 4-1 this year versus San Francisco, and 9-2 at home against the Giants since last season.

Run Line play on Arizona in this one.

Take the Diamondbacks -1 1/2 runs.


10 DIMER - TEXAS RANGERS (Padilla over Sonnanstine)

The Rays are for real, but the Rangers aren't bad, and if you are going to beat Tampa, the time to get them is when Andy Sonnanstine is on the mound, as Sonnanstine may be 6-2 this year, but his ERA os over 5.

Vincente Padilla is 4-1 on the road this year, and 6-2 for the year with a 3.33 ERA.

Texas has won 4 of their last 6 games, and I like them plus the take back to cool off the surging Rays in this one.

Take Texas.

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WUNDERDOG

Los Angeles Lakers at San Antonio
Pick: First Half UNDER 96.5 -110

The Lakers have been playing some of their best basketball of the year, but the 84 points in game three was their lowest output of the year. They realize what they have to do to win on the road here - play great defense and match the intensity of the Spurs. The Lakers will turn it up a notch on defense, especially at the game's onset. As we get deeper into the playoffs both of these teams continue to increase the defensive intensity. Los Angeles allowed 51 points per game in the first half during the regular season, but in the playoffs they have cut that to 48.9. In their last five games it has dropped to 46.8. San Antonio allowed 46 per game in the first half in the regular season but just 44.2 over their last five games. Under Popovich, the Spurs are 19-7 UNDER in the first half in the Conference Finals. We like the Spurs to come out fired up, play great defense keeping the first-half to come in UNDER the total.

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Priceless Picks

1 Unit on Twins/Royals UNDER 8.5

With as well as Bannister has pitched at home, this game has UNDER written all over it.  The Under is 7-1 in the Royals last 8 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150, 13-4 in the Royals last 17 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5, and 38-13-2 in the Royals last 53 home games.  The Under is 7-0 in Bannister's last 7 starts as a home favorite and 12-1-1 in Bannister's last 14 home starts.  The Under is also 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in this matchup.  Bet the UNDER.

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Jeff Alexander Sports

1 Unit on Blue Jays/A's OVER 7.5 Runs

Oddsmakers have set the bar too low for these two teams tonight and we'll take advantage.  The Over is 6-1-1 in the last 8 meetings in Oakland in this matchup and 6-2-2 in the last 10 meetings overall.  The Over is 4-0 in the Athletics last 4 games as a home favorite, 5-2 in the Athletics last 7 vs. the American League East, and 7-3 in the Athletics last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Over is 4-0 in Burnett's last 4 starts during game 1 of a series, 5-2 in Burnett's last 7 Tuesday starts, and 9-4 in Burnett's last 13 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.  We'll take the OVER here.

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Re: TUESDAY SERVICE PLAYS

JeffMoney

Orioles +115 (pod)
Braves -125
Angels -115

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GamblersWorld.

TIP OF THE DAY

Los Angeles Lakers vs. San Antonio Spurs

Prediction: San Antonio Spurs

Current Line: -4.5 Over/Under: 192 Reason: The fans at the AT&T Center will be treated to a playoff game between the Los Angeles Lakers and the San Antonio Spurs when they take their seats on Tuesday night. Oddsmakers currently have the Spurs listed as 4.5-point favorites versus the Lakers, while the game's total is sitting at 192. The Spurs hammered the Lakers 103-84 as a 5.5-point favorite in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals on Sunday. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (193.5). Manu Ginobili scored a team-high 30 points for San Antonio, while Tim Duncan added 22 points and 21 rebounds in the win. Kobe Bryant led the Lakers with 30 points and Pau Gasol netted 15 points in the loss. Team records: Los Angeles: 57-25 SU, 47-34-1 ATS San Antonio: 56-26 SU, 38-44 ATS Los Angeles most recently: When playing on Tuesday are 5-5 After playing San Antonio are 5-5 After a loss are 7-3 San Antonio most recently: When playing on Tuesday are 8-2 After playing LA Lakers are 7-3 After a win are 6-4 A few trends to consider: The total has gone UNDER in 8 of the LA Lakers last 9 games when playing on the road against San Antonio The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the LA Lakers last 6 games when playing San Antonio LA Lakers are 14-3 SU in their last 17 games The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the LA Lakers last 7 games on the road The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Antonio's last 5 games San Antonio is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home The total has gone UNDER in 8 of San Antonio's last 9 games when playing at home against LA Lakers San Antonio is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

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Gavazzi Hoops + Baesball

5% LA Lakers +4

3% Chicago Cubs
2% Baltimore Orioles

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Rocketman Sports

San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Arizona D-Backs
     
San Francisco is 1-6 this year when playing with a day off. Arizona is 20-5 this year against division opponents. Arizona is 20-7 this year when playing against a team with a losing record. San Francisco is scoring only 3.7 runs per game overall this year, 3.5 runs per game on the road and 3.3 runs per game against right handed starters this season. Arizona is scoring a whopping 6 runs per game at home this year. Arizona bullpen has a 3.26 ERA overall this year and a 3.46 ERA at home this season. Haren is 5-0 with a 2.27 ERA at home this year. Arizona has won 4 of 5 against San Francisco this year. We'll recommend a small play on Arizona tonight! 

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DAVE MALINSKY 5*

Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays
PICK: Over

Sometimes performance patterns (or “trends”, if you like) can point us in the right direction in terms of getting ahead of something that the marketplace is slow to catch up on. That is a pretty common thought process. What is not nearly as common is looking for patterns to reverse when the market is attaching too much weight to something that is misleading. And that provides tonight’s value.

Tampa Bay has played to a 19-9 Under tune at home so far. And just what does that mean? It tells us that Scott Kazmir (3-0/0.47 at home) and James Shields (3-1/1.75 at home) are becoming dominating performers from this mound. It also tells us that the Rays have also caught some opponents that were short-handed offensively (in a 6-1 Under home-stand, they faced the Yankees without Rodriguez and Posada, and the Angels with multiple infield starters missing). And the Tampa offense has also been up against a slew of talented pitchers here so far.

None of this, of course, means anything in a Vicente Padilla/Andy Sonnanstine matchup, and as such we are able to take advantage of tonight’s short price.

Padilla gets a measure of respect that he does not deserve for that 6-2/3.33 opening to the season. There are seven unearned runs that do not show in that accounting, and it is not as though one or two bad games were part of that - in four different starts he has allowed at least one unearned run, which is what can happen with a weak defense behind him (Texas leads the Major League’s in errors). Meanwhile Sonnanstine is not Kazmir or Shields. He has worked to a 6.14 tune over 15 career starts here at Tropicana Field and his stuff is just ordinary - he has twice as many hits allowed (72) as strikeouts (36), which is an indication that long relief may be a part of his future.

The flip side of the pitching equations? Texas is tied for 1st in the A.L. in runs scored, 2nd in batting average, and 1st in home runs. Tampa Bay is 5th in the league in all three of those categories. The Rangers are also second in the A.L. in walks, while the Rays lead the league in stolen bases. And both offenses are loaded with left-handed punch that can attack mediocre right-handed pitching. So in a game in which we only need for each side to reach four runs to be guaranteed that we get at least a refund, there is plenty of value here.

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Oscarxena Sports

New York Mets -1 1/2 Runs +1.21 (3 Unit Play)

I am not a huge fan of laying the run line on home teams and especially on teams playing badly like the Mets but I will take a shot here today on Santana here tonight. Although the Mets lost again last night I believe this team has too much talent not to get turned around soon and with management standing behind Willie Randolph I think the players will settle in and start to win. In starting to win they will need to get outstanding pitching and they probably have one of the best starters on the mound tonight in Johan Santana. The Mets have went 7-3 so far this year in Santana's starts and he has been very good in his career against the Marlins going 3-0 with a 1.96 ERA in three starts. Santana has also had good success with HP umpire Ed Rapuano as his teams are 2-0 with two Unders with him behind the plate. The Marlins will counter with Andrew Miller who has been pitching very well lately but has not had much success against New York as he is 1-1 but has a 8.38 ERA and the Mets manhandled him earlier this year. I think if the Mets can score 4 runs in this game the run line is a winner and the Mets are 7-3 with Rapuano behind home plate the last 10 while Florida is 3-6. Take the Mets tonight.

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Info Plays

3* on Braves/Brewers O 8.5

Dave Bush is 1-5 with a 6.70 ERA in 8 starts this season for Milwaukee.  I could easily see the Braves scoring 9 runs themselves tonight.  Bush is 14-1 OVER vs. teams who strand 7.5 or more runners on base per game over the last 3 seasons.  Milwaukee is 29-13 OVER at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons.  Atlanta is 24-13 OVER in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons.  Tim Hudson is in line for one of his worst starts of the season against a Brewers’ team scoring and giving up 5 runs per game over their last 7 games.  Bet the OVER 8.5 runs.

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