Thursday's NBA Tip Sheet
Thursday's NBA Tip Sheet
Inside the Paint - Thursday
By Chris David
The NBA season has only a week of action left and 13 of the 16 playoff spots have been locked up. Atlanta and Dallas are both a couple games away from clinching, but the schedule is favorable for the two to go dancing this postseason.
This leaves us with one spot and it’s going to be a dogfight between Golden State (47-31 SU, 34-44 ATS) and Denver (47-31 SU, 42-36 ATS), who are tied for the eighth and final spot in the Western Conference. Fortunately, gamblers get a chance to watch the pair battle Thursday in a nationally televised battle on TNT at 8:05 p.m. EDT.
“Golden State faces a must-win situation, especially since Denver has already beaten them two of out of the first three meetings. If the Warriors win this game, I can’t see Don Nelson’s club not making the playoffs, especially with the pending schedule for both clubs,” said VegasInsider.com handicapper Matt Moore.
“After this game, the only tough test will be a road trip on Monday to Phoenix, who could be resting for the playoffs with its seed already being predetermined. A pair of home games versus the Clippers and Sonics should be double-digit wins or Nelly better pack his bags for good and leave for Hawaii.”
While the Warriors have a favorable schedule, Denver doesn’t. The Nuggets finish up their four-game road trip Saturday at Utah, who owns a league-best home record at 35-4. If George Karl and company drop two straight, they’ll need to win both of their final home games against Houston and Memphis plus get help.
Moore added, “Even though Denver held the Clips to 99 points, it’s just hard to back a team that doesn’t play a lick of defense, especially this time of the year. And when you look at the Clippers’ offense, it’s embarrassing to give up that many to them.”
Denver is allowing 106.9 points per game on the season, but that’s less than the 108.3 PPG that Golden State is surrendering. Oddsmakers are expecting another shootout, listing the total at 240 points for this battle. The ‘under’ has gone 2-1 in the three meetings this year, but all of the totals have been very inflated.
Golden State is listed as a 5½-point home favorite and it’s hard to back either team these days. The Warriors are 1-4 ATS in their last five games, plus 14-24 ATS at ORACLE Arena this year. Denver is 18-21 ATS on the road and 2-4 ATS in its last six games.
**Utah at Dallas**
Dallas (49-29 SU, 35-39 ATS) has a chance to inch closer to the playoffs on Thursday and a victory against Utah (52-26 SU, 42-34 ATS) would be huge for the club. The Mavericks currently sit in the seventh spot in the West and lead the Nuggets and Warriors by two games. Even if Dallas loses tonight, they’ll still hold a two-game cushion with Golden State and Denver playing one another. However, a triumph would push Dallas’ magic number to one with three games remaining.
Tonight’s battle will be tough, considering Utah is on fire. The Jazz have ripped off four straight wins and covers, all coming by double digits. Jerry Sloan’s team has been winning with defense, holding San Antonio to 64 on Friday before stifling New Orleans to 66 points on Tuesday.
The Jazz have been very suspect outside of Salt Lake City, going 17-22 SU and 16-23 ATS. The defense has given up 104 PPG on the road, compared to 95 PPG at home.
Dallas owns an impressive 32-7 SU and 16-19 ATS mark at home, which includes a 99-83 blowout win over Seattle on Tuesday.
This will be the fourth and final meeting between the two teams this year, with the home team winning the previous three battles. On Mar. 3, Utah stopped Dallas 116-110 but failed to cover as a 6½-point home favorite. The ‘over’ has gone 2-1 in the first three meetings.
After this battle, Dallas heads to the Great Northwest for a quick two-game set starting Saturday against Portland and Seattle. Utah has three tough tests remaining, two at home versus Denver and Houston before a road finale back in Texas against the Spurs.
**Lakers at Clippers**
The Lakers (53-25 SU, 44-33 ATS) had a great opportunity to increase its playoff seed on Tuesday but was surprised as nine-point road favorites against Portland, 112-103. The Trail Blazers shot 50 percent from the field, including a blistering 10-of-22 spot from 3-point land. The setback snapped a four-game winning streak for the Lakers and prevented the club from clinching the Pacific Division.
Even though Phil Jackson’s team has gone 6-4 in the last 10 games, the team is a dismal 3-7 ATS. The club has surrendered 105-plus points in eight of the previous 10 battles, helping the ‘over’ go 6-4.
The Clippers appear to be playing out the string, evidenced by their current three-game losing skid. On Tuesday, the club was blasted 117-99 by Denver as a 12½-point home underdog and will likely be a puppy the rest of the year.
This head-to-head series has been all Lakers this year, watching the Purple and Gold win by 21, 18 and 37 points. The Clippers haven’t busted the century mark in any of the meetings, which has helped the ‘under’ go 2-1.
Re: Thursday's NBA Tip Sheet
Denver (47-31, 42-36 ATS) at Golden State (34-44 ATS)
Two teams battling for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference meet up when the Nuggets travel to Oracle Arena for a clash with the Warriors.
Denver beat the Clippers 117-99 Tuesday night, easily covering as a 12½-point road chalk. The victory halted an untimely two-game SU and ATS skid – with the losses coming to lowly Sacramento and Seattle. The Nuggets are 7-3 SU in their last 10 starts, but they are just 2-4 ATS in the last six (1-2 ATS on the road).
Golden State outgunned Sacramento 140-132 Tuesday but failed to cash as a 14-point home favorite for its second straight ATS setback. The Warriors, who are 5-5 SU in their last 10 starts, are on a 1-4 ATS slide.
These two teams met 12 days ago in Denver, with the Nuggets winning 119-112 but the Warriors cashing as an eight-point underdog. Denver is 2-1 SU and Golden State is 2-1 ATS in three contests this year. The Nuggets, who prevailed 124-120 at Golden State catching five points in December, are 7-3 SU in the last 10 meetings, but the two teams have split the cash during this stretch.
The Nuggets sport positive pointspread trends of 11-5 overall, 9-2 on Thursday, 8-3 on one day of rest, 5-2 on road trips and 7-3 after a spread-cover. However, they are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 as a dog of five to 10½ points and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 against the Pacific Division.
The Warriors are on ATS streaks of 5-0 as a chalk of five to 10½ points and 10-4 on Thursday, but the rest of their ATS trends are negative, including 6-15 at home, 5-14 as a home favorite, 2-6 against the Northwest Division, 9-29 after a SU win and 8-17 on one day of rest.
The “over” trends run wild for both these high-scoring teams. For Denver, the over is on hot streaks of 19-7 overall, 5-1 as a road ‘dog, 15-5 after an ATS win, 8-3 after a SU win and 10-4 on the highway. For Golden State, the over is on runs of 4-1 at home, 10-3 on Thursday, 17-6-1 after a SU win and 13-6 on one day of rest. Finally, the over is 10-4 in the last 14 series meetings overall and 6-1 in the last seven at Golden State.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GOLDEN STATE and OVER
Utah (52-26, 43-35 ATS) at Dallas (49-29, 34-40-4 ATS)
The Jazz aim to shore up their playoff seeding when they head to the American Airlines Center to face the Mavericks, who are trying to hold off Denver and Golden State in the Western Conference playoff chase.
Utah shut down New Orleans 77-66 Tuesday as a 5½-point road pup for its fourth consecutive SU and ATS victory. The Jazz are on a 15-4 tear in their last 19 games, going 13-6 against the number during that stretch.
Dallas bested lowly Seattle 99-83 Tuesday but couldn’t cover the heavy 18-point spread at home, halting a four-game ATS winning streak. The Mavericks are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five starts, following an ugly six-game stretch in which they went 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS.
Utah is 2-1 SU and ATS this season against Dallas, with both wins coming at home, including a 116-110 victory laying 5½ points on March 3. In the lone meeting in Dallas, the Mavericks prevailed 125-117 in December, also as a 5½ point chalk. Utah is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six clashes in this series, but Dallas is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings at home. In fact, the host is on a 19-7-1 ATS roll in this rivarly.
The Jazz are on positive ATS runs of 4-0 against the Southwest Division, 5-1 after a SU win, 5-1 as a road ‘dog, 7-2 on one day of rest, 20-7 against winning teams and 19-7 against the West. Their lone negative: They’re 3-10 ATS in their last 13 outings on Thursdays.
The Mavericks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 after a SU win and 12-5 ATS in their last 17 on one day of rest, but they harbor negative pointspread trends of 3-7 against winning teams, 2-5 as a favorite, 5-16-1 on Thursday, 1-5 at home and 1-5 after a non-cover.
For Utah, the under is on an 8-1-1 spree against the Southwest Division, but the over is 5-2 in its last seven starts overall, 29-11 in their last 40 as a ‘dog of up to 4½ points and 41-20 in their last 61 as a road pup of less than five points. For Dallas, the under is on runs of 4-1 overall, 5-1 overall, 7-1 as a favorite, and 10-1 as a favorite of less than five points.
However, the over is 4-1 in the last five clashes overall and 4-0 in the past four battles in Dallas.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS
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NBA Research for Thursday
Denver vs. Golden State
Denver beat this team by 7 at home last time, this game has huge playoff impolications, I lean on Golden State here, but this game reminds me far too much of the Suns vs. Spurs game last night, the line is coming down as this is essentially a playoff game and I want no part of this game tonight.
Utah vs. Dallas
Utah comes off a huge win over the Western Conference Leading Horntes on the road, they have won 8 of 10, 4 in a row and covered 6 of 7, Dallas had covered 4 in a row and comes off a nice win over Seattle at home, they have big revenge here, everyone is back for this team including Dirk and despite favoring the Mavs by about 64%, I believe they are right and lean on the Mavs here on what is essentially a playoff game given how tight the race is in the West.
Lakers vs. Clippers
Just 15.5 points - that's all? lol. Of course, that is sarcasm. The Lakers are laying nearly 16 points to their rivals on the road, but the Clippers are flat out horrible right now and they are staring the likes of Dan Dickau which is one of the reasons why. The Clippers have lost 3 straight covers including 20+ losses to the Rockets and Nuggets at home and now face a Lakers team that comes off a loss to Portland on the road. The Lakers have lost 6 of their last 7 covers, but beat this team by nearly 40 at home, come off a loss and have covered the last 3 against the Clips, by principle though I hate laying such a big number but I think it is justified, lean on the Lakers here.
Re: Thursday's NBA Tip Sheet
Why don't try to test our lucky and sports betting knowledge on NBA games tonight...I have made my initial selection look at and give us your honest suggestion:
Denver Nuggets +4½ Over 237
Dallas Mavericks -4½ Under 198½-
LA Lakers -15 Over 209
P.s. Good luck with you new betting system...