Saturday Service Plays

Re: Saturday Service Plays

Jeff Benton

5* SAN DIEGO PADRES

Here’s the deal with this play: Anytime I can get the second best pitcher in baseball, on his home field, and only have to lay a small price, I’m taking it. Every time. I don’t care who the opponent is. I watched Peavy in his debut against Roy Oswalt and the Astros on Monday, and he was absolutely phenomenal as he surrendered just three hits and three walks in seven scoreless innings in a 4-0 win. Now the reigning N.L. Cy Young winner faces the Dodgers, against whom he went 3-0 last year with a 2.08 ERA, giving up just 22 hits and nine walks in 34 2/3 innings. Not only did the Padres win all five of Peavy’s starts against the Dodgers, but they’re 10-1 in his last 11 starts against L.A., including 5-0 at home! So I don’t care that the Dodgers are countering with their ace, Brad Penny. They’re not winning this game against Peavy, especially when you factor in that Penny is 3-6 with a beefy 5.61 ERA in his career against San Diego. Also, the Dodgers are 2-6 in Penny’s eight outings versus the Padres since he joined the organization in 2004, including 0-4 at Petco Park. This one’s almost too easy. Lay the price with Peavy and the Padres.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Jake Timlin

MILWAUKEE BREWERS -1½ RL

All Milwaukee minus the Run Line as they blowout the Giants once again. Looking at last night’s meeting there is two things that can be taken from the Brewers 13-4 win and that is San Francisco is going to struggle this year and that Milwaukee continues to be a dangerous offensive team. Well thanks to being at home and facing an inexperienced Corrreia look for another blowout in Milwaukee today. I mean with Milwaukee’s offense picking where they left off last year with 28 runs in four games and now facing a San Francisco team that has just 2 wins in their last 11 games in Milwaukee and with the Giants being outscored so far this year 22-8 it is very likely that the Giants will get buried today. So since I am looking blowout back the Brewers tonight on the Run line and minus -1 ½ runs

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Drew Gordon

1. 400,000* North Carolina
2. 50,000* Memphis
3. 50,000* Pirates

1. North Carolina- While a lot of bettors seem to like North Carolina in this game, I believe they like the Tarheels for the wrong reasons, and I'm here to give you the right one's. If you think Kansas is going to come out flat, like they did against Davidson, then you don't know basketball, plain and simple. Make no mistake, the Jayhawks will come out fired up for this one, but that being said, I still firmly believe the Tarheels win and cover this contest and here's why:

First and foremost, the Tarheels have the best two players on the court, at the most critical positions - point guard & center. It took him some time, but clearly Ty Lawson is now fully recovered from his ankle injury. When he's at top speed, like right now, he's one of the fastest and most dangerous point guards in the country, bar none. Lawson's tourney numbers: 15 ppg, 4 assists/game, 1+ steals/game, AND just 6 turnovers overall! Good luck to any Jayhawks who draws the assignment of covering the red-hot Lawson!

Then there's Hansbrough, who's the key to this contest. Not only has he ripped through some of the best defenses in the country, game in and game out (28 points, 13 rebounds against a HUGE Louisville frontline), but his ability to extend the defense and hit free throws is critical in this contest. His mid-range jumper killed the Cardinals in Elite Eight, and it'll do the same tonight. He's one of the smartest players in college basketball, and you best believe Kansas C Darrell Arthur is in BIG trouble tonight... He not only got manhandled by a smaller Davidson frontline (just 7 points, 5 rebounds), but has a real penchant for foul trouble (113 personal fouls on the season) which plays right into Hansbrough gameplan.

Looking over the rest of the match ups, I'm willing to say its just about a push across the board. Rush and Chalmers will get theirs, but so will Ellington and super-sub Danny Green. Some say Chalmers is the best defender on the floor, but Marcus Ginyard is rock-solid and will pester Rush the entire game. While overall the Kansas has the better defense, the Tarheels edge on offense with Lawson and Hanbrough is greater, especially with some of the inconsistency we've seen from the Jayhawks offense this season.

Finally, as a last note, you've got to give the coaching the edge to Roy Williams, who has Championship experience. I know its a corny and sometimes over-hyped factor, but not when the opposing coach maybe fielding offers from his alma mater Oklahoma State! I don't care what anyone says, Williams is the better coach, he proved it against Pitino in the Elite Eight, and he's proved it time and again before that.

Bottom line, in a relatively close contest, the difference comes down to the two best players on the court and their ability to change the game at any moment. Lawson will have this Tarheels offense firing on all cylinders, like he has all tourney long. While you can expect Hansbrough to keep the Kansas bigmen guessing all night and spending plenty of time on the bench in foul trouble (Arthur especially). In the end, Tarheels roll!

Take North Carolina over Kansas as your top-rated play of the day.

2. Memphis- Athleticism. That's what it comes down to in this contest... The Tigers have it, and the Bruins simply don't have enough of it. Say what you will about star C Kevin Love and his success this season, but he's yet to see two more athletic bigmen than Memphis' Dozier and Dorsey. If the Bruins think a freshman center is going to be the undoing of this surging Tigers team, they've got another thing coming tonight! But let's dig a little deeper...

When you consider Love might be overmatched for the first time all season, it takes a lot of luster off this UCLA team, but that's not where the mismatches end. Memphis has a strong edge in the backcourt as well, with freshman phenom Derek Rose teaming up with Chris Douglas-Roberts, one of the most underrated players in college basketball this season, to lead the Tigers attack.

Granted, I'm not saying the Bruins are a pushover here, far from it, but its the match ups that are their downfall. For example, Darren Collison, will be working against Antonio Anderson all game long - a tough match up for Collison. While we already discussed both Rose and Douglas-Roberts match up edges. And finally, while not a tremendous advantage, I'll still take Dorsey and Dozier (in Calipari's system) over Mbah a Moute and Love.

Critics will argue that the Bruins have a strong edge in experience, which is absolutely true... But if you want to take the more "experienced" team over the team that just finishing wiping the floor with Michigan State and Texas (in Houston), then be my guest! People are constantly trying to punch holes in this Memphis squad because they come from a weaker conference, but truth be told, they may be the most complete team left in March Mayhem, and it'll show tonight.

Take Memphis over UCLA in tonight's Final Four showdown.

3. Pirates- While the Marlins were excited to ink the big lefty, Mark Hendrickson, to a one-year deal back in January, their expectations were soon dashed, when the southpaw got rocked by the Mets in the season opener. He allowed 6 runs on 7 hits over 5 innings, walking 3 in the process... Not exactly the numbers the Fish were counting on. And unfortunately for Florida, it won't get easier any time soon, as the Pirates have started the season hitting well, batting .281 against lefties thus far.

Speaking of hitting, its clear the Marlins are hurting without Miguel Cabrera, who was the "pop" in Florida batting order. While Hanley Ramirez has stepped up, I cannot disagree more with him hitting in the leadoff spot... He's their best hitter and the Marlins need to put him in a position to bat some runs in, not bat .462 with 1 RBI on the season! Not only that, but with McLouth, Doumit, and especially Nady swinging the bats so well, the disparity on offense is that much more obvious.

Countering Hendrickson will be the Pirates Paul Maholm, who despite going 10-15 with a 5.02 ERA last season, is better than those numbers indicate. The proof is in the pudding, and the last time he pitched at Dolphin Stadium he was excellent, allowing 2 runs on 3 hits in 7 2/3 innings of a 3-2 win back on June 26th of last season! Not only should Maholm outpitch Hendrickson, but based on the Pirates above average hitting to start the season, Maholm should get plenty of support.
Bottom line, look for the Pirates to bounce back strong tonight, thanks in large part to a solid edge on the mound, and an even bigger edge at the plate. Maholm had a great Spring, and many are pointing to this season as a breakout year for the southpaw, and it all starts tonight in South Florida.

Take Pittsburgh behind Malholm over Florida and Hendrickson in this MLB match up.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Eddie Roman

Highest Rated 15,000 Unit Final Four Game of my Career

15,000 units Memphis

13-3 Career W/ 15,000 Unit Plays

10-0 Last 10 Final Four Plays


2000 Unit Bonus Locks

2000 units UNC
2000 units Arizona

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Chris Jordan

1,000* College Winner #4 in a Row


FINAL FOUR GAME OF THE YEAR

1,000* North Carolina

400* Angels run line

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

VEGAS VIC

Memphis -2

Kansas +3

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

ROB VENO

Blue Chip: UCLA Over 133.5

Blue Chip: Kansas +3


ERIN RYNNING

NBA Playmaker: Cleveland Under 197.5


FAIRWAY JAY

20* Big Drive: Kansas +3.5

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Wunderdog

4* UCLA

4* North Carolina

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Insider Sports Report

4* Houston (Oswalt) -125 over Chicago Cubs (Marquis)
Range -110 to -145

4* N. Carolina -3 over Kansas (NCAAB)
Range -1.5 to -5

3* U.C.L.A. +2 over Memphis (NBA)
Range +3.5 to Pk

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

K Garrett

40 UCLA
40 UNC
10 KC
10 Padres

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Pointwise Phones

4* N. Carolina
4* UCLA

1* highest
6* lowest

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

FERRINGO

1-Unit Play. Take #813 Memphis (-2) over UCLA
It's been a chalk tournament so I don't see why it should stop here. Memphis was my pick last April to win the championship this year. I just hope they don't decide to come out and throw up a 32 percent shooting night. UCLA is just as streaky shooting from the outside so whichever team is able to knock down more contested shots from the perimeter is going to win. I think Memphis has looked better against better competition in the NCAA Tournament and I think they can duplicate their gritty performance in this venue a year ago when they upset Texas A&M.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Frank Rosenthal

NBA
Celtics-2 Sb
Raptors-4 Sb
Nuggets-10 Sb+
Over 232.5 Sb+

NCAA
Ucla+2.5 Sb+
Over 133 Sb+
Unc-2.5 Sb
Over 159 Sb

Major League Baseball
Cubs+105 Sb
Padres-145 Sb
Under 7 Sb+
Bjays+120 Sb
Cws+150 Sb
Rangers+150 Sb

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Larry Ness

Seattle vs. Baltimore

I was anticipating going against Loewen last night but a rainout Thursday caused Baltimore to move Loewen back one game. I'll go against him here, as the 24-year-old lefty is coming off a 2007 season in which he made only six starts due to a stress fracture in his left elbow. I realize he pitched well in limited action but he's facing a Seattle team which went 28-13 (plus-$1,730) vs lefties in '07. Miguel Batista makes his first start of the '08 season, although he was forced into action on Wednesday as the team's closer, after JJ Putz was placed on the DL. Seattle got Batista from Arizona, after he had a solid '06 season as a starter for the D'backs, going 11-8 with a 4.58 ERA (Arizona was 19-14 in his starts). Batista went 16-11 (4.29) for the Mariners in '07, leading the team in wins, while Seattle went 19-13 (plus-$843) in his 32 starts. Batista's only history against Baltimore comes in three starts back in 2004 (while he was with the Blue Jays) and the fact that he was hit hard means little, as he's been a totally different pitcher the last two seasons. Look for the Mariners to bounce back from last night's 7-4 loss behind a solid effort from Batista plus their ability to get to the left-handed Loewen. Take the Mariners.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Alex Smart

Philadelphia 76ers -6.0

Iguodala scored 30 points to lead his Philadelphia 76ers to a hard fought 109-104 win at Atlanta on Friday night, and in the process clinched a play off spot for his team. But do not expect a let down from the Sixers as they still have plenty to play for, as they are tied for Washington for the 5th seed, and Toronto just one game behind in 7th. Atlanta is still hoping for a post season appearance, but after last nights loss, maybe a little disheartened in let down situation tonight. Final notes & Key Trends: Philly 14-3 ATS L/17 against a team with a losing record, winning SU by an average of 14.8 PPG. Play on the Sixers

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

LT Profits

Memphis @ UCLA u133.5

The Memphis Tigers have been running up some scores lately, but we expect the stingy defense of the UCLA Bruins to slow the Tigers down here, resulting in a much lower scoring game than many people expect.

UCLA has one of the best defenses in the country, and they will no doubt make a concerted effort not to let Memphis get their running game going, as the Bruins know that the Tigers are capable of running away with this game if they are not at least slowed down. The Bruins are allowing just 58.9 points per game this season while holding their opponents to 42.0 percent shooting, and they have been downright suffocating lately, surrendering 55.4 points per on a miniscule 35.3 percent shooting to their last five opponents.

While the Tigers are known for their exciting offense, many people overlook their excellent defense which is holding opponents to 38.8 percent shooting over the entire year. Considering that the Bruins will slow the pace of this game when they are on offense also, we think that the Memphis defense should have no trouble keeping UCLA around 60 points or so at the most here.

The bottom line is that if UCLA is successful in containing the Memphis transition game, we do not see this contest getting out of the 120s.

Pick: Memphis, UCLA Under 133.5


Arizona Diamondbacks (-115)

Brandon Webb has always been a fast starter while Jeff Francis did not pitch well in his seasonal debut that, fortunately for him, did not count due to a rainout, so the Arizona Diamondbacks get the call as small road favorites tonight.

Webb is always a Cy Young candidate, and he has been virtually unhittable during the month of April. The Diamondbacks are 14-4 as a team in all of Webb’s April starts over the last three seasons plus Opening Day of this one, when he allowed two runs and just three hits in six innings of a 4-2 win at Cincinnati, and he has an April ERA of 2.85 over this period. Also, if we flash back to last season when the Rockies won 21 out of 22 games before getting swept in the World Series, their only loss during that unbelievable stretch came to Webb 4-2 right here in Colorado.

Francis is the ace of the Rockies staff, but he did not look like it in St. Louis on opening day when he allowed five runs in 2.1 innings, only to have the outing wiped out when the rains came and the game could not be resumed. He has also been mediocre in his last four home starts vs. Arizona, with two good outings and two shaky ones. The end result was 13 earned runs and 35 baserunners allowed in 23.2 innings of work.

We look for Webb to continue his April dominance here at a rather modest price.

Pick: Diamondbacks -115

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

Gold Medal Club

Kansas @ North Carolina

PLAY ON NORTH CAROLINA -3

The "wiseguys" maybe entertaining a Kansas upset, but this is the most dominant team in North Carolina I have seen in a long time. North Carolina feasts on good defensive teams allowing less than 64 a game going a perfect 12-0 to the number- conversely, the Jayhawks have struggle to contain teams like Carolina that average more than 75 a game going 1-7 ats.

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Re: Saturday Service Plays

  Scott Rickenbach   

Arena Football 1* (regular play) New Orleans VooDoo (-) vs San Jose Sabercats

The VooDoo have quickly become one of the hottest teams in the league and we will ride them again here. New Orleans is playing with a special sense of urgency as well as passion and intensity. This has been especially true in their recent home games and they certainly won't be short on emotion with the current AFL champs paying them a visit. A key for New Orleans has been the surprisingly solid play of Danny Wimprine at QB. Defensively they lead the league with 12 interceptions and they also have 8 sacks. The secondary is definitely solid enough to give QB Mark Grieb of the SaberCats some problems. San Jose has not been putting much pressure on opposing QB's and, as a result, Wimprine should provide another solid performance. With the different philosophies of the defenses here it will be the opportunistic VooDoo (who excel at QB pressure) that make the big plays in this one and that will key a home victory. Play New Orleans minus the points as a regular selection. 

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