Wednesday Service Plays

Re: Wednesday Service Plays

ANTON WINS

4 units Denver -8


EZ Winners

5 STAR: (716) UTAH (-1) over Detroit
(Risking $550 to win $500)

NCAA

3 STAR: (748) GEORGIA (-1) over Florida
(Risking $330 to win $300)


2 STAR: (760) TEXAS A&M (-9) over Texas Tech
(Risking $220 to win $200)

2 STAR: (790) GEORGE MASON (-13.5) over William & Mary
(Risking $220 to win $200)


THE DUKE

College Game of The Year tonight

Appalachian State +15.5

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MATT FARGO

PICK: UTEP

The Miners have won two straight games and it was the first that is the most impressive as they picked up their first conference road win of the season at Marshall last Wednesday. UTEP easily took out East Carolina on Saturday to improve to 12-1 at home this season. This includes a perfect 6-0 record in conference home games with the average margin of victory being +13.2 ppg. The lone defeat came against a tough New Mexico team in overtime by just a single point.

UAB has responded very well from that last second loss against then-top ranked Memphis as it has won its two games since then. The first was a home against Houston by just a bucket while its most recent win came at lowly SMU on Saturday, not exactly the most impressive. The Blazers lone home loss was that game against Memphis but it is a different story on the road. UAB is 6-5 away from home with a win at Central Florida being the only one of the six against a team with a winning conference record.

UTEP is currently tied with Southern Mississippi and Central Florida for fourth place in the conference but there is a lot of room to move up. After this game, UAB must still go to Memphis while hosting two decent teams in Tulsa and Tulane. The other second place team, Houston must also come to El Paso and has home games against Southern Mississippi and Central Florida. This is all so important because the top four teams in the conference receive bye in the first round of the C-USA Tournament.
As far as revenge factors, UTEP wants this one bad. The Miners were outrebounded in that first meeting 51-32, an eight-point loss back on February 9th. “That’s where we lost the game,” UTEP coach Tony Barbee said after the game. “They out-toughed us…it was disgusting to watch. I’m so disappointed.” That being said, we can expect a much stronger effort on the boards tonight and that usually equates to wins as the Miners are 21-4 in C-USA regular season games when outrebounding opponents.
UTEP is 18-3 all-time in C-USA home games, and 34-5 in conference home games over the last five seasons. This season, the Miners are yielding an average of 62.5 ppg in C-USA home games, with only one team, Southern Mississippi, tallying over 66 points against the Miners. The defense is significant as UAB brings in a tough offense and one that just put up 91 points at SMU and leads the conference in shooting. The Miners have their confidence back and they get yet another home victory on Wednesday.

Play UTEP Miners 1 Unit

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SEBASTIAN

20* Hofstra
50* Utah Jazz
100* Texas A & M
300* Cleveland (nba)

100* Insider...Richmond

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Iceman

3* Blue Jackets


3G

NBA
5*Atlanta Hawks

NCAA
5*Old Dominion
5*Alabama
4*Purdue

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Ats Lock

Financial

4 Units - Kentucky
3 Units - George Washington - Tulsa


Texas Sports Wire

5* Kentucky
4* Richmond
3* Texas A&m - Jazz


WAYNE ROOT

Chairman - Florida St
Millionaire - DePaul
No Limit - Ole Miss
Insiders Circle - Colorado
Billionaire - Clemson

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Paul Leiner

50* NBA Over 212 NO/Phx

10* CBB Over 134 Kansas/Iowa State

5* CBB Houston -8

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Gina

Denver Nuggets (33-23) at Seattle SuperSonics (15-41)

The Nuggets have won two straight and four of the last five meetings against the lowly SuperSonics, who have dropped five of its last seven games. However, The Nuggets are currently playing below par. Denver has lost three straight and nine of its last 13 games on the road, a woeful 11-16 on the road this season. Go with Seattle tonight at KeyArena to cover the spread in a close battle. The Sonics have covered the spread in four of their last five games.

Seattle SuperSonics


Toronto Raptors - 11
Seattle SuperSonics + 8½

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Johnny Guild


Florida Gators + 1.5
Tulsa Golden Hurricane + 18.5


Minnesota Timberwolves (12-43) at Toronto Raptors (31-24)

The struggling Timberwolves are 2-7 in their last 9 games, just 12-43 this season and have played horrible away from home, one win in its last 20, a pitiable 2-23 thus far this season.

The Timberwolves surprisingly beat the Jazz on Tuesday, 111-100, at Target Center, but won't be home tonight. Minnesota’ poor performance on the road has been a fiasco. Take the Raptors tonight at Air Canada Centre to outscore the Wolves, who are averaging 93.7 points per game. The Timberwolves have lost the last seven clashes against Toronto and is 1-5 both straight up and against the spread in the last 6 meetings versus the Raptors in Toronto.

Toronto Raptors - 12

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Josh Dean

15* Utah -1

15* Iowa St. +12.5

5* Charlotte +7.5

FREE B: TEXAS A&M

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Malinsky 6* top of the ticket

UNDER 191.5 Boston/Cleveland

To go to a 6* rating in the NBA means that we must have both performance levels and consistency levels that we can trust. It is rare, but we get that here, and with part of the concept coming from a positive sub-category of our season portfolio we will not hesitate to pull the trigger.


We have had a great deal of success playing Boston Under this season, with the marketplace never fully accepting that the Celtics were at their strongest on that end of the court, as visions of Pierce-Allen-Garnett offensive showcases filled their heads. The chemistry has been outstanding on the defensive end, and pacing of the games has been slow, as it should be. When you have great half-court offensive talents you are supposed to get into your sets whenever possible, and when you have some aging veterans you also do not need to be pushing the pace more than is necessary during the regular season. In Tom Thibodeau they have arguably the MVA (Most Valuable Assistant) on any coaching staff in the league, with his ability to create defensive game plans made easier by having a corps of veterans that understands them. It all adds up to excellent value in general for tonight’s purpose, but recent events have made it even better.


Boston got caught up in a pair of track meets at Golden State and Denver immediately after the All Star break, which badly skews both the numbers and the perceptions. It was a difficult scheduling sequence, with little time to prepare for the Warriors and none for the Nuggets, and the final scores showed. But what did it set up for us? An easy 4* Under at Phoenix on Friday, an easy 4* Side at Portland on Sunday, and another easy 4* Under against the Clippers on Monday. Now they return to their home court for the first time since February 13, and they do it in a setting that calls for defense once again – the legs are going to still be heavy off of that western tour, but at least there was a day of film study to prepare for LeBron James and company.


Cleveland provides the ideal foil here, both in terms of matchups and value. The Cavaliers have played a pair of Over’s in the first two games since adding Ben Wallace and others, but that creates a misleading impression. The Cavaliers were in against the weak defenses and uptempo styles of Milwaukee and Memphis, which created much different flows from what we will project going forward. As we expected to see the defense was solid, allowing 42.9 percent shooting in those games, but they fell at Milwaukee, and created a higher final score, because the Bucks were 32-37 from the free throw line last night. Now for tonight.


The Cavaliers are not expecting Zydrunas Ilgauskas to be able to go because of a respiratory infection, and with that being the case, James is surrounded by the most offensively inept starting lineup in the NBA – Wallace, Anderson Varejao, Delonte West and Devin Brown. Those other four combined for 30 points in 107 minutes last night. But that is an outstanding defensive group, particularly in the front-court. And while Wally Szczerbiak will be a tremendous offensive force off of the bench, we do not fear him in that regard here. Szczerbiak turns 31 next week, and the 38 minutes he played last night were his season high. That taxes him in a back-to-back situation, particularly after he played 32 vs. Memphis on Sunday. So there are no easy counters anywhere for Cleveland offensively against this class of defense, but there is the ability to get down and guard the Celtics, and turn it into a battle that way. That is what we expect to see – a physical grinder of a game that will resemble playoff time, with a slow tempo and points not easy to come by.

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Balfe

Sixers +2
Hornets -3
Iowa St +12


ETHAN Law

1* UNC Wil
1* Georgia
1* George Washington
1* UTEP
1.5* (Underdog GOM) Ole Miss


Akmens

NHL

Sharks u 5

NBA

Cavs u 194

College

W Kentucky u 136
Wyoming o 140.5
W Virginia u 141

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Larry Ness' Oddsmaker's Error-CBB

My Oddsmaker's Error is on UTEP at 9:00 ET. Although UAB (and likely Houston) still hold out hopes of getting an at-large bid, just like last year, the only C-USA school heading to the "Big Dance" will be Memphis (unless someone knocks off the Tigers in the C-USA tourney, which is unlikely). Former Indiana head coach Mike Davis has his team at 19 wins in his second year at Birmingham and he's had to overcome the loss of two key starters. PG Delaney (8.8-5.5-5.0) went out after just four games, while the 6-9 Sharpe (14.2-6.8) was lost after just 12 games.Following Davis from Indiana was swingman Vaden (21.0-3.5-2.5) and after sitting out LY, he's been the Blazers' best player TY. The return of guard Toney (12.4), who's now played the last 11 games, has been big for UAB, as he joins a combo of Johnson and Berrios (about nine PPG) in the backcourt. The frontcourt is a rotation of the 6-8 Kinnard (11.3-6.9), the 6-7 Huffman (7.6-6.1), the 6-8 Crawford (4.6) and the 6-9 Holmes (4.4-3.2). The Blazers beat UTEP in Birmingham by 81-73 but the Miners shot just 38 percent in that game, including a sad 4-of-18 from three-point range. At home, UTEP has gone 12-1 this year, losing only to New Mexico, 86-85 in OT on Jan 2. The Miners have one of the nation's best scorers in Jackson (24.3-5.6) and expect him and his teammates to shoot much better this time around. Kilgore (12.2-4.5-4.8) is an excellent PG and freshman guard Culpepper has been coming off the bench while averaging 12.8 PPG. The frontcourt is nothing special with the 6-9 Ramalho (6.2-4.8), the 6-9 Watts (5.7-4.2), the 6-11 Britten (3.8) and the 6-10 Sampson (3,4-3.1) being the biggest contributors. However, against UAB, that';s not much of a concern. There is not much difference between these teams and here at home, where it's lost just ONE of 13 games this year, UTEP is being greatly undervalued by the linemakers.

Oddsmaker's Error on UTEP.

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BeatYourBookie.com

NCAA Basketball

100* Play Miami (+8.5) over Clemson

Miami is 10-1 ATS coming off a win this season
Miami is 25-12 ATS in February road games since 1997
Miami is 6-1 SU vs. Clemson since 1997


50* Play Florida State (+2) over N.C. State

N.C. State is 8-17 ATS in home games the last 2 seasons
N.C. State is 2-8 ATS coming off a loss this season
N.C. State is 3-10 ATS vs. ACC Opponents this season


NBA Basketball

50* Play Toronto (-12.5) over Minnesota

Toronto is 5-0 SU & ATS vs. Minnesota the last 3 seasons
Toronto is 23-8 ATS in the month of February the last 3 seasons

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Dennis Hill

Kansas
Va Comonwealth
New Orleans NBA

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Odds on Sports

NBA
Minnesota +11.5
Orlando -1
L.A. Clippers -2
Seattle +8.5
Under 202 Sac/Atl
Over 191.5 Clev/Boston
Under 208.5 Ind/Chicago

NCAA Hoops
Utah -4.5
Over 141.5 Aub/Miss st.
Over 122 N.Iowa/Ind st.

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Wunderdog:

4 units on Florida +1.5
3 units on W. Virginia -4.5
2 units on Minnesota +8


RAS

792 UTEP -1 ... 1/2

753 Drexel OVER 133 ... 1/2

768 TCU UNDER 129 ... 1/2

780 Troy UNDER 158'... 1'

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Dr. Bob

NBA Opinion/Possible Best Bet
L.A. CLIPPERS (-2) over Portland
The Clippers were crushed the other night by Boston, but the Clips apply to a solid 137-80-3 ATS home bounce-back situation that plays on teams that lost by 20 points or more at home in their previous game. Los Angeles also applies to a 150-86-2 ATS bounce-back situation. Portland has been struggling the past month or so, going just 2-14 ATS in their last 16 games but the Clippers aren’t as good without big man Chris Kaman, who is out again tonight, and my ratings based on current personnel favor the Clippers by just ½ a point. I’ll lean with the Clippers at -2 or -1 ½ and I’ll take Los Angeles in a 2-Star Best Bet at -1 or better.

College Opinions
Iowa (+2) over PENN STATE
Iowa is an underrated team since pointguard and leading scorer Tony Freeman started playing in early December and Penn State is an overrated team since losing star Geary Claxton early in their Janauary 15th blowout loss to Wisconsin. Using games for both teams for the entire season would yield a fair line of Penn State by 4 ½ points, but using only Iowa’s games with Freeman and Penn State’s games without Claxton results in a line of Hawkeyes by 1 ½ points in this game. I’ll lean with Iowa based on the line value and I would take Iowa in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more.

DUKE (-15) over Georgia Tech
Duke has always performed well against mediocre or bad teams, as the Blue Devils are 92-38-3 ATS in regular season games after a victory when facing a team with a win percentage of .650 or less. The Blue Devils also apply to a 201-95-8 ATS home favorite momentum situation if they remain a favorite of 15 points or less. My ratings favor Duke by 17 points, so there is also some line value on the side of the Blue Devils. My only problem with this game is that Georgia Tech is 10-1 ATS in 8 seasons under coach Paul Hewitt after losing 4 or more consecutive games, so I do expect the Yellow Jackets to play hard. I’ll still lean with Duke at -15 points or less

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Re: Wednesday Service Plays

IndianCowboy has another 5* play today.  Anyone seen it?  Thanks in advance.

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Winning Points Online NCAAB

**PREFERRED
Georgia* over Florida by 12

Other than seven straight wins against Georgia,what does Florida have that Georgia doesn't? Do they have the best guard in the conference,Georgia's Sundiata Gaines? No. Do they have Billy Humphrey, Georgia's junior guard who was absent from the lineup two weeks ago when Florida won by 10 points on their home floor? No.

Lots of freshmen and sophomores on that Florida team, coming off their 20th win and maybe not mature enough to realize you gotta keep goin' andgoin' and goin' to keep winning when you're out onthe road in late February and and the other team can play a little. GEORGIA, 78-66.

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INDIAN COWBOY

Knicks -5.5 (POD) (5* selection)

Note Released to clients today:
I've made some changes on the spreadsheet. I am not the handicappers many of whom I know that have game of the weeks every day or a game of the month every day. In this way, I guess I'm "boring" as I don't have a the big 10* play everyday, that's just not me and I approach handicapping differently. I feel that those who have the big 10* each day are sometimes more focused on sales than selections. I continue to learn a great deal from my handicapping on a daily basis and review all of my notes because I firmly believe one day, I will be able to secure 58% + consistenlty, as I have done many times in the past. The way that I do my spreadsheet is that I have a particular percentage and if the chances of that play exceeding 56% currently I roll with it. San Diego State - my comp pick yesterday was at 56%. However, the POD yesterday was 61% - the twolves/jazz over - so whichever one has the highest statistical percentage, that is what I roll with the pod. I am increasing my plays to 60%statistical average. This would mean I would have less comp plays and less plays overall, I might even reduce the monthly charge as well doing just 1-2 and occasionally 3 plays a day if it calls for 3 plays at over 60% chance of hitting. But, I'd rather make 40 to 45 plays a month and have a better winning % than making 90 plays a month and not having the same winning %. In that, I'll stick in 2, 5* selections, the nba and college game of the months that I like. Sure, not as exciting, but to me handicapping is not about the hype, it's a study and math, similar to any of the other degrees that I have pursued.

I like the Knicks for quite a lot of reasons today. For one, you know as well as I do that this team got pounded on the road to the Bobcats. This team comes off a 20+ loss to the Raptors the other day, my game of the month, now, this team will face the Bobcats at home who have lost at least 5 straight games on the road by double-digits, many by 20 or more points. Why not the Knicks coming home after a tough frustrating loss, no Gerald Wallace still for the Bobcats and having revenge. The Knicks can play with the best of any teams at home - after all, look at the fact that this team beat the Raptors at home. The Bobcats are 0-7 ATS as an underdog of late and the Knicks are 4-0 ATS following an ATS loss.

Twolves/Raptors Over 199 (3 units)

The Twolves come off a nice outright wni over the Jazz and are reminded of this ugly loss they had to the Raptors at home where they gave up over a 100 points and scored just 83 points. I don't see the Twolves doing that horrible on the road today as if the Nets can pop 91 at Toronto, there is no reason why this team with a little bit of confidence, but more importantly with some revenge, starts out the game on a strong foot and I have them scoring at least 95. Of course, I have the Raps playing even better than what they did at Indiana, as this team has covered their last 5 games against a team with a straihgt up losing record and are 13-3 ATS at home. Thus, I like the over despite favoring the Raptors or the Twolves - the underdog should do well which favors the over, the Raps do well in blowing out teams on the road, the Raps are scoring with east at home as the last 6 ballgames in Toronto have gone over, the over is 5-0 for the Raps when their opponent scores more than a 100 in their previous game and the over is 4-1 when the Twolves are underdogs of late.

Pacers -1.5 (3 units)

This is the weaker of the 3 selections that I'm going with today, but I do like it for a couple of reasons. For one, the Pacers come off a tough home loss to the Raptors, a team that they failed to cover against the 3 point spread. This team fought very hard, but they fell just short. They do have revenge against this Bulls team from losing on the road by double-digits. The Bulls did play better with their new look team at Dallas, but they fell short, but still covered. The Pacers have had some tough games at home and when they play teams ranked around the 20th spot in the league at home, they do have success, such as beating the Nets by around double-digits and beating the Blazers. This team needs a big win at home, and I think they can get it here against the Bulls on the cheap price. The Bulls have put together some quality players, but I think it will take some time for them to gel. With Noah starting, but Gooden and Hughes getting more minutes - I simply think the Pacers play a bit more "gelled" basketball at this point. The Bulls are 6-15 ATS road favorites by this margin, the favorite is 8-0 ATS in this matchup and the home team is 7-1 ATS in this series of late. This was enough for me to make it a play despite it being the least significance out of the full card.

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