Friday Service Plays

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Black Widow Sports

1* on Sacramento Kings -1

Sacramento will run away with this one tonight.  The Charlotte Bobcats are reeling, losing 8 out of their last 9 games overall.  The Kings have won both games after the All-Star break with a great road win at Portland and a dominant home win over Atlanta, both by double-digits.  Charlotte scored just 65 points in a 20-point loss to the San Antonio Spurs their last time out.  Charlotte is 1-10 ATS when playing 6 or less games in 14 days this season.  The Kings own a 14-point win over Charlotte in their only meeting of the season.  You can expect another double-digit blood bath here when the Kings get done with the Bobcats.  Take Sacramento and lay the points.

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IRON HORSE

10* Orlando Magic



Ryan NHL

5* Calagry Flames

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Dave Malinsky comp 4* play

GAME: Boston Celtics @ Phoenix Suns

PICK: under

Offered at: 217.5

REASON FOR PICK: 4* BOSTON/PHOENIX Under

We cashed an easy 4* ticket with the Lakers against Phoenix Wednesday night in the first game of the “SunShaq” era, and now can step in again while the betting markets struggle to adjust the categories. This time it is the Total that is in the wrong place. That explosive offensive showcase on Wednesday (both teams shot over 50 percent) helps to set us up with a very high line for a game that will be played mostly in the half-court, and also feature some actual defense.

After playing the best defense in the NBA through the All Star break, the Celtics got caught up in a pair of track meets at Denver and Golden State this week, and paid the price accordingly. That wounded the ego of a team that brings a lot of pride to the defensive end of the court, and we are reading the kind of comments that mean a lot in that regard. First, from Kevin Garnett - ”If you look at how we've won games, we've stopped the easy buckets, we've stopped all the nonsense on the backdoor cuts. There was none of that [the past two games]. Now, we're in situations where teams are not only getting a lot of fast-break points but a lot of free throws. We have to continue to be aggressive and minimize those things."

From Ray Allen - "Out West they are going to score points, they are going to get the ball up and down the floor. We knew it in both games. We have to recognize it and we have to get back. Right now, these two games are a slap in the face.”

From Paul Pierce - “We know we can score, but that kind of game really doesn’t play to our strength, because we’re a defensive team. We can run, but we prefer to keep the score down some and play in the lower 100s. We just have to clean some things up defensively and do a better job of keeping teams out of the fast break.”

And from Doc Rivers - “That’s not the way we want to play. We are a better defensive team than we’ve played, but I was talking about that before the break, too. I thought our offense bailed us out (in) four or five games before the break, and we kind of fell into that fool’s gold that your offense is going to win. We’re never going to win a title, a conference or anything else just being an offensive team. We’re just not doing our jobs, and it’s a lot of little things. We’re better than that.”

Tonight anticipate the Celtics to put a premium on managing tempo and transition defense, especially after Rivers gave them yesterday off from practice to study film and focus on technique, which guarantees fresh legs. And what makes this one particularly interesting is that a lot of the defensive matchups are favorable. For Boston Kendrick Perkins has the muscle to not be pushed around by Shaq; Kevin Garnett has the experience and savvy to slow Amare Stoudemire down a bit; and Rajon Rondo has the tenacity to make Steve Nash work extra hard to create openings. Meanwhile for the Suns there is the confidence of knowing that O’Neal is taking up a lot of room in the paint, while Grant Hill can match up to Paul Pierce (quicker players have bothered Hill this season but Pierce does not play that way at this stage), and Raja Bell is not a bad match against Ray Allen. We are not talking about lock-downs here, but rather some individual matchups that can keep this from getting anywhere near the track meet that is being called for.

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WINNING POINTS

***BEST BET
Houston over *New Orleans by 6
HOUSTON 98-92.


***BEST BET
*Detroit over Milwaukee by 21
DETROIT 104-83.


***BEST BET
*Golden State over Atlanta by 20
GOLDEN STATE 121-101.

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Black Magic Sports

1 Unit on Indiana Pacers -5

Indiana has been struggling, but they won’t fall to the New Jersey Nets who are now playing without Jason Kidd.  Kidd’s replacement, Devin Harris, is sidelined for two weeks due to injury so New Jersey doesn’t have a true point guard playing tonight.  New Jersey is 3-13 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making more than 36% of their attempts this season.  New Jersey is 0-10 ATS after playing a game as a home underdog this season.  The Nets have never covered the spread in this spot this season.  Cash in with Indiana as the favorite.

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Bob Akmens

Detroit Red Wings - Calgary Flames
Under 5.5 -135  / 3 units

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Wolkosky Milan

10* NEW JERSEY +5
10* PHILADELPHIA +7
10* CLEVELAND -2½
10* TOR/NYK UNDER 197½
10* DAL/MEM UNDER 197
10* HOU/NOH OVER 188
10* UTA/LAC UNDER 199½

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Bob Balfe

BULLS +5


E.Law Underdog game of year

Bobcats +1


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Drew Gordon

1. 200,000* Nets
2. 50,000* Bobcats
3. 50,000* Harvard

1. Nets- The Nets went into the All-Star Break playing well, and we saw them play well again at Chicago two days ago, getting the outright win 110-102 in OT. While we all know Jason Kidd's absence will be felt, let's not get carried away, as the Nets have some solid talent at the point guard position. Devin Harris isn't ready yet, but ex-Huskie PG Marcus Williams, who was being groomed to take over for Kidd, is playing extremely well, coming off a 25-point effort against the Bulls.

But enough about the Nets for now, as its the Pacers pathetic play of late which dooms them in this match up. They've lost 10 of their last 12 SU, going 4-8 ATS over that span. The injuries to O'Neal and Tinsley have left this Indiana team with little but Danny Granger chucking up shot after shot, and it shows, averaging 95 ppg on just 40% shooting over their last 5 games. Won't get any easier against a hard-nosed Nets defense, allowing 94 ppg on 40% shooting over that same span!

Its also hard to ignore the fact the Nets have absolutely owned this series, winning 7 straight against the Pacers, covering 6 of those 7! New Jersey has no fear of going into Conseco Fieldhouse whatsoever, and they'll play like it tonight. Make no mistake, the Nets are out to prove they can play without Kidd, and that's as much motivation as they'll need to keep this game competitive against the struggling Pacers.

Bottom line, now is the time to find value with this Nets team, as oddsmakers scramble to adjust to the Kidd trade. I say the Nets are almost as good without him, plus the added motivation of proving their doubters wrong, and the fact they've dominated the Pacers in the past, there's only one choice here and its the Nets plus the points.

Take the Nets plus the points over the Pacers as your top-rated play of the day.

2. Bobcats- Here's an example of a bad team getting highly motivated coming off one of their worst losses of the season. Charlotte is coming off an 85-65 blowout loss at the Spurs, and will be looking to bounce back strong tonight in front of their home fans. Bobcats may be terrible on the road (4-19), but understimate them at your own risk in Charlotte, where they're 15-16 SUATS this season.

Several match up issues for the Kings, including Brad Miller, who'll be matched up against one of the better defensive centers in the league in Emeka Okafor. What's worse is Okafor had a terrible game against the Spurs and Tim Duncan, so you can expect he'll be extremely active tonight. Not only that, but Gerald Wallace still isn't himself coming off that foot injury, but he did play 32 minutes against the Spurs despite only scoring 4 points (16 below his average)... Expect a much better effort in this one.

Another issue I have with the Kings is their road play. There's no question they're playing much better basketball overall, but they're vulnerable on the road, going 8-18 SU and 14-12 ATS away this season. We already know they're defense is average at best, but when they get on the road, the Kings offense also sputters, averaging 96 ppg on 45% shooting. They'll be hard-pressed to reverse that trend against a solid Bobcats defense tonight.

Bottom line, Bobcats bounce back from one of their worst losses of the season with a resounding effort against the road-weary Kings Friday night. Not only do the Kings have a tough time on the road in general, but they've lost their last 3 in Charlotte SUATS. Bobcats roll!

Take the Bobcats plus the points over the Kings in this NBA match up.

3. Harvard- How do you separate two losing Ivy League teams? Well, first you start with the home court, where the Crimson have been solid this season, going 6-4 SU & 4-2 ATS. Princeton meanwhile, has been atrocious on the highway, going winless 0-9 SU & 5-4 ATS... Needless to say, the Tigers are toothless when they travel, and they'll be toothless here again tonight.

So what happens to the Tigers when they travel? They're already slow-as-molasses offense gets even slower, averaging 50 ppg on 40% shooting on the road. That's bad news because the Crimson, like most Ivy League teams, are much better offensively at home, scoring 75 ppg on 46% shooting there this season. You tell me how Princeton keeps pace with this Harvard offense in this one? The answer: They won't, plain and simple.

Next, we'll look at the match ups, as the Crimson clearly have more balance and depth, despite the fact they have only one more win to show for it. Princeton's F Savage is coming off a huge 35-point effort, but he'll be much closer to his 9 ppg average tonight against a bigger Harvard frontline on the road tonight. Other than that, the Crimson have solid edges across the board, from the backcourt to the frontcourt.

Bottom line, while we've got two losing Ivy League programs matching up tonight, clearly only one is coming to play, and that's the Crimson. In case you wanted the numbers to back my assertion about the home court advantage: The home team is 6-2 ATS over their last 8 meetings in this series... Make it 7-2 ATS after tonight!

Take Harvard over Princeton in this Ivy League match up.

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Savannah Sports

2 Units on New Jersey +5.5

2 Units on Davidson -3.5

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Winning Points Online NBA.

***BEST BET
Washington at Cleveland UNDER 187.5

Cavaliers might dress only eight players, so they do not want to be running up and down the floor. They are very comfortable in a half-court game anyway. Washington still might be without Caron Butler, who will be coming off an injury layoff if he plays. Other would-be scorers who really aren't proven, go-to players are also attempting to play through some injuries for the Wizards. CLEVELAND, 88-84.

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Jake Timlin

Line makers suggest this match up is going to be a blowout, but I for one think it will be worst as Golden State at home is going to roll all over what is a bad road team in Atlanta. You see for the Hawks they just traded away 4 players for a injured Bibby who is now leading a Atlanta team that has lost 6 straight games while only covering once in those 6 games. Even worst for the Hawks they are horrible way from the dirty south as Atlanta has failed to cover in 10 of their last 12 road games, including 0-2 SU/ATS on their current west coast swing. Well make it yet another loser for the Hawks as the Warriors up tempo style of play will pave the way to a home blowout cover win. Take Golden State minus the home chalk.


Al DeMarco

Davidson carries a 16-game winning streak into tonight's game at Winthrop in nearby Rock Hill, South Carolina, about 45 miles from its campus. Leading the Wildcats is red-hot guard Curry, who is averaging 30 points in his last 11 games.

In addition to dominating the Southern Conference this season, Davidson has hung close in step-up games, losing by just four to North Carolina, by six to Duke, by 12 to UCLA and one to N.C. State.

This game offers a contrast in styles as Winthrop is a defense-first team that allows 59 ppg and holds foes to 40% shooting while Davidson averages 80 points on average.

Davidson has played the tougher non-conference schedule this year, and that experience will serve it well tonight.

1* DAVIDSON (on a 1* to 5* basis)


Jeff Benton

Philly has won six of its last seven SU while going 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11. So what stopped me? Two things: First, other than an impressive 84-76 win over the Mavericks, the Sixers really haven’t defeated anyone of consequence during their current hot streak. Secondly, all six of their wins and covers during this 6-1 SU and ATS run have come at home, as Philly is just 2-9 in its last 11 on the road (3-7-1 ATS).

All this said, I still think Andre Miller, Iguodala and the rest of the gritty Sixers have what it takes to hang with Orlando in this contest. For one thing, they did just that on the first of this month, losing to the Magic 108-106 and covering as a four-point underdog. With that cover, the Siers improved to 4-1 ATS in their last five outings against the Magic. Also, the underdog is 21-7 ATS in the last 28 meetings, and prior to the Feb. 1 contest, the road team had covered seven straight in this rivalry. Well, the Sixers are the visitor tonight.

Finally, the Magic just have not played consistent enough basketball lately to warrant being this big of a favorite. They’re just 3-4 SU and ATS in their last seven games, including 2-3 SU and ATS at home. Throw in the fact Philly is playing tight D right now (86.4 ppg allowed in the last five contests) and Orlando is not (109 ppg allowed in its last five), and I’ll take a shot with the road pup here.

(Based on a 1* to 10* rating system)

2* 76ERS


Scott Delaney

Something tells me the Tigers will roar tonight, as they’re on a 5-1 ATS run in their last six on the road, when facing a team that wins on the road. And though the home team has covered six of the last eight meetings, I can’t help but notice the Harvard numbers that tell us the road team is the play.

The Crimson are mired in ATS skids of 1-6 overall and in conference play, and 1-4 on Fridays – when the boys of Ivy play their first of back-to-back games. Princeton, for as bad as it’s been this year, won the first meeting by 14 in New Jersey, 68-54, on Feb. 2.

I know the Tigers have lost five straight, but the Crimson have dropped seven in a row – six of them to the bookmakers. Take the points.

1* PRINCETON


Tony Weston

At this point, I’m not sure I can ever trust the San Antonio Spurs. They either destroy the teams they’re not supposed to or just squeak by the teams they’re supposed to demolish.

There’s very little in between. They either look really good or really bad. And most of the time, it’s not beneficial to us in any way.

Luckily, Thursday is over and we can forget about that loss provided by the Spurs.

We do stay with a team in the West that we absolutely love tonight in the Phoenix Suns, who will host the Boston Celtics.

First, Boston comes into this game have lost back-to-back road games SU and ATS at Denver and Golden State. The Celtics are also 2-3-1 ATS their last six games and are 1-3 ATS their last four games away from Bean Town.

Now they take on a Phoenix Suns team that actually looked decent in a 130-124 loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday night.

It was Shaquille O’Neal’s first game with the Suns and what stood out wasn’t his 15 points and nine rebounds. No, it was Amare Stoudemire’s 37 points and 15 rebounds.

Shaq’s presence is going to open things up for Stoudemire and head to head, whether it’s Stoudemire or Shaq, either will dominate down low against the Celtics.

Phoenix is 2-1 ATS its last three games and will make three out of four with a strong win against the struggling Celtics.

Take the Suns at home.

3* SUNS (1* to 5* Scale)

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Teddy Covers NBA Game of the Month

Boston Celtics +1.5 / 6 units

The Boston Celtics started this road trip with the best record in the NBA, including a perfect 16-0 SU mark against Western Conference foes. But after suffering a pair of tough losses at Denver and Golden State to start the trip, the Celtics are now looking at the potential for their first three game losing streak of the season.

I like to support the best teams in the NBA coming off a loss. Boston is 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS following a defeat this season, including a 5-0 SU and ATS mark when coming off a loss by four points or less. In the lone previous instance that they’ve lost two straight, the Celtics bounced back with a double digit victory in their next outing.

Based on the information listed above, we can expect the best team in the NBA to come out with an inspired performance this evening. The high profile Suns will certainly get their attention, and Kevin Garnett’s return to health should only increase their intensity. And the Celtics have a major advantage in terms of recent opponents, having faced a pair of teams with similar uptempo styles in their last two games. We can expect the #1 team defensive team in the NBA, holding foes to 42.5% shooting from the floor and 31.8% shooting from three point range (both best in the NBA) to have considerable success shutting the Suns high octane offense down.

Phoenix played as well as they could possibly play offensively against the Lakers on Wednesday night, but they still came up ten points short of a pointspread cover, losing outright at home. That dropped the Suns current ATS run to 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven tries as a home favorite, the lone cover coming against an exhausted foe playing their fourth game in five nights. Things won’t get any easier against the best defensive team in the NBA. Nor are the Suns (dead last in the NBA in rebounding margin) likely to get easy transition or second chance opportunities against the fifth best team in the league in rebounding margin. Phoenix simply does not match up well against these Celtics, matchups made even worse by the Suns attempt to get Shaq up to speed.

Suns point guard Steve Nash: “We're going to have to adjust slightly to (Shaq’s) strengths.” (With games against the Lakers, Celtics and Pistons to open the second half), “We're going to learn a lot about ourselves and where we're going, and maybe that will give us a steeper learning curve to play against terrific teams.” That’s not exactly a testament to the Suns confidence that they can come out and beat elite level teams right now, just as they are transitioning their playing style.

Last, but not least, let’s examine the defensive acumen of these two teams. The Celtics have been the best defensive team in the league this year; Phoenix one of the worst. The Celtics have just seen two similar offensive gameplans to what they’ll face tonight, giving them a strong matchup edge here. Phoenix just played a game where they shot 52% from the floor, 77% from the free throw line, while winning the rebounding battle by 13 and committing only 12 turnovers. They still lost the game in straight up fashion because right now, this team isn’t playing a lick of defense. Expect those defensive woes to be the difference maker tonight as Boston cruises to victory.

Big Ticket: Take the Celtics.

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GamblersWorld -Tip of the Day

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Orlando Magic

Prediction: Orlando Magic

Current Line: -7.5 Over/Under: 201.5

Reason: The fans at Amway Arena will be treated to a game between the Philadelphia 76ers and the Orlando Magic when they take their seats on Friday. Oddsmakers currently have the Magic listed as 7½-point favorites versus the 76ers, while the game's total is sitting at 201½. The 76ers held the New York Knicks to under 40 points in the first half Wednesday, and cruised to a 124-84 victory at home. The 76ers easily covered the 6.5-point spread, while the combined score made it OVER the posted total of 191. Thaddeus Young shot 8-for-11 from the field with 20 points and eight rebounds to lead the way. The Magic were defeated 127-110 by the Raptors on Wednesday, as slight 3.5-point road underdogs. The combined score sailed OVER the posted total of 207. Dwight Howard had a double-double with 37 points and 15 rebounds in the loss. Team records: Philadelphia: 24-31 SU, 28-26-1 ATS Orlando: 34-22 SU, 34-21-1 ATS Philadelphia most recently: When playing on Friday are 8-2 Before playing Miami are 7-3 After playing New York are 6-4 After a win are 5-5 Orlando most recently: When playing on Friday are 6-4 Before playing Sacramento are 3-7 After playing Toronto are 5-5 After a loss are 6-4 A few trends to consider: Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Orlando Philadelphia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Orlando Orlando is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia The total has gone OVER in 4 of Orlando's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia Orlando is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Philadelphia Orlando is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home

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Teddy Covers

Houston Rockets @ New Orleans Hornets

PICK: Houston Rockets

REASON FOR PICK: Even on the second night of back-2-backs, the Rockets are playing too well right now to be underdogs in this price range. Houston is the hottest team in the NBA, winners of ten straight, going 8-2 ATS in the process. The Rockets are 9-2 against the number in their last eleven on the road; 9-2-1 ATS as an underdog this year including outright wins in their last three tries as a road dog. Rick Adelman’s team is getting tremendous play from their role players. Yao and T-Mac make the headlines in Houston, but the reality is that their overall level of improved play has come due to the success of their other guys – pint sized point guard Rafer Alston, Shane Battier, Luis Scola, Carl Landry, Luther Head.

Don’t expect the trade between these two teams that was completed before the deadline yesterday to have much impact on the Rockets overall chemistry and flow. Mike James hadn’t played significant minutes since December; sitting on the bench for the full 48 minutes in 19 of the Rockets last 25 games. Bonzi Wells never really fit in with what Adelman was trying to do on either end of the court, in sharp contrast to the just acquired Bobby Jackson who played the best basketball of his career under Adelman’s tutelage back in Sacramento. At least for the purposes of this game, the Rockets got the immediate injection of talent and energy from yesterday’s deal, as Wells and James will have a learning curve in New Orleans that Jackson won’t have for the Rockets.

The series history between these two teams is all about the road underdog cashing tickets. The road team is 9-2 ATS in the last eleven meetings, while the underdog has cashed at a 16-5 clip the last 21 times these two teams have faced off against one another. When the Hornets beat the Rockets in Houston last month, the Rockets Tracy McGrady was sitting on the sidelines in street clothes. With T-Mac back in the lineup tonight, expect Houston to get their revenge. Take the Rockets.

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Wunderdog

Toronto at New York
Pick: Toronto -5.5

The Knicks had to feel good afte they beat Washington 113-100 after the All Star break. That good feeling has dissappeared after they lost on Wednesday 124-84 to Philadelphia. That kind of loss is a confidence-killer and we think they will suffer a hangover here. Toronto on the other hand is riding the momentum of a win over Orlando in which they scored 127 points. The Raptors are a winning team on the road both SU and ATS and New York has no home court advantage - maybe a disadvantage. The Raptors are 36-24 ATS the past two seasons vs. losing teams including 30-15 ATS vs. teams at 40% or worse SU. They are also 42-28 ATS as a favorite over that span.

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Maddux Sports

3 UNITS SACRAMENTO -1
3 UNITS NEW JERSEY +5
3 UNITS DALLAS -8

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Brandon Lang

5 Dimes

Rockets
Davdison
Suns
Sonics
Sixers

Free play - Pacers

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Bob Akmens

Boston Celtics Phoenix Suns OV 218.0 / 3 units


Brandon Lovell

10*Utah St

5*Raptors


Doc Sports NHL

4* Detroit -115


BeatYourBookie.com

100* Play Princeton (+4.5) over Harvard

Harvard is 3-18 SU vs. Princeton since 1997
Harvard is 8-21 ATS coming off 3 or more conference losses

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Tom Freese

Boston at Phoenix

Phoenix is 17-6 OVER in non-conference games and they are 10-1 OVER at home off 5 straight games where their opponents had 14 or less turnovers. The Suns are 6-0 OVER vs. a team that allowed 100 or more points in their last game. Boston is 27-9 OVER away when the total is 210 or higher and they are 32-18 OVER off an ATS loss. The Celtics are 9-4 OVER as road dogs of 4.5 or less points. PLAY ON 'OVER'

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