Thursday Service Plays

Re: Thursday Service Plays

MATT RIVERS

For Thursday take the number with Rutgers.

Let me start by saying that Rutgers is terrible. The Scarlet Knights no longer have a player like Quincy Douby and are really really bad. Being on the road should not help as they were just dismantled at Freedom Hall by a billion against Louisville but I still cannot get that shocking win in Pittsburgh out of my head making me feel that this number is a bit much against a West Virginia team that has not exactly been lighting it up of late. The Mountaineers just lost that heartbreaker in Pittsburgh where Ronald Ramon nailed the three at the buzzer and who knows if they will rebound strong here now against a semi bottomfeeder. Bob Huggins' boys have now dropped three of the last four games including that dreadful 62-39 home loss to Cincinnati where I am still scratching my head. Rutgers will not have lightning strike twice in terms of an outright like at Pitt but we are also looking at a home team here that has gotten out of the 60's in only one of their last six games and unless they really bust out here, which is still very doubtful, we are looking to back a team that just pretty much needs to score in the 50's and I'll take my chances with any major program in this scenario, ever. West Virginia should win this game but in what should be an ugly 62-52 type of a final and therefore I'm all about the dog.

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Sports Gambling Hotline

True, the Flames of Illinois-Chicago are only 3-9 away from home this year, but they enter tonight's conference game at Detroit riding a nice 3-game winning streak, and they have been able to go 6-6 against the spread away from home thus far this season. We feel they will add to that record in a positive way tonight, as the Titans of Detroit are just 1-16 straight up their last 17 games, and the points really haven't helped much either, as Detroit is a lowly 3-9-1 against the spread their last 13 outings! Illinois-Chicago did win this year's first meeting 75-65 as the 9 1/2-point favorite, and they have won 4 of the last 6 series meetings both straight up, and against the spread. With the Flames looking to improve their stock, and the Titans going nowhere, we will lay the small number on the road tonight.

Play on Illinois-Chicago.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Scott Rickenbach

Fresno State Bulldogs (-) @ Idaho @ 10 ET - This is simply a case of W/L records dicatating some big time line value. The Bulldogs indeed have a very poor road record on the season. However, when you look at how tough their road schedule has been, one should not be surprised. Now, in this particular case, the Bulldogs take a big step down in level of competition and yet, many bettors will simply latch onto the poor road record that the Bulldogs have and they will jump on the Vandals. That suits us fine as it should help keep this line "in check". For our purposes, Idaho is absolutely outclassed. The Vandals are not a good team nor do they perform consistently. Even with the home court edge, we don't see the Vandals having enough to keep up with a talented Bulldogs team.

Play Fresno State minus the points

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Steve Merril

YOUNGSTOWN STATE +18'

Butler is coming off an emotional overtime win and cover at Wisc-Milwaukee on Tuesday night and the Bulldogs might have a tough time re-focusing tonight as a big home favorite with just one day's rest.

Butler already beat Youngstown State on the road last month and now they now qualify in a negative 29-59 ATS big home favorite letdown situation. Youngstown State also matches up well in this game as they allow just 33.6% from three-point range (versus opponents that average 36.1%). This strong perimeter defense will be important versus a Butler squad that attempts 47.1% of their total shots from beyond the arc.

Youngstown State has struggled to win this season, but they have still been competitive in most games and have only lost one time in their past fourteen games by more than 14 points. In fact, the Penguins? have lost their past six conference road games by an average margin of just -6.2 points per game.

Play YOUNGSTOWN STATE (+).

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Tom Scott

Youngstown State at BUTLER
Play ON:YOUNGSTOWN STATE plus the points

We don't normally try to knock down conference bears but, when you consider the position that Butler finds itself in tonight, this is definitely worth a try. The Bulldogs stand alone at the top of the Horizon League two full games ahead of the second place team and three games ahead of the third place team with just five games left on the conference schedule. Four of those five games are at home where Butler has won 22 of its last 23 games, including ten in a row. Two of those home games are against the second and third place teams (Wright State and Cleveland State) and both of those are same season revenge games for the Dogs. (Butler 6-0 SU in its last six home revenge games). Can you blame Butler for not being all that inspired tonight? Youngstown is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 league games and has enough firepower to hang around for most of the game. Butler wins but the Penguins get the money.

PREDICTION: Butler 68 - YOUNGSTOWN STATE 61

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Cajun Sports

Game: Pacific vs. Cal Irvine

Line: Cal Irvine -3.5

Rating: TWO-Star

Selection: CAL IRVINE -3.5

Analysis:

Its unlikely Pacific will shoot 59% here as they did in the second half of their earlier meeting with Cal Irvine this season, a game in which they were able to win 59 to 53. UCI is playing with a lot of confidence now as evidenced by their recent win over Santa Barbara on Saturday and we expect that momentum to carry over here. UCI is averaging 72.1 points per game at home this season and they are scoring those points on teams that normally only allow 68 points per contest. Their defense has been solid at home as well allowing only 60.7 points per game to teams that average 69.3 on the year. This in contrast to what Pacific has done on the road this season scoring 71.6 points per contest but that is against teams that allow 71.3 points per game so no real offensive power from Pacific. On defense they allow 69.2 points per game to teams that normally only score 68.3 points per game here again we see they are below average on the defensive side of the ball as well. UCI is 7-1 SU at home this season and 5-2 ATS in those games while Pacific is 8-4 SU on the road but a money burning 4-7 ATS. Finally we have a super system that tells us to Play ON CBB home teams as a favorite or pick after allowing 65 points or less in 2 straight games against an opponent after scoring 40 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games, 81-33 ATS the last five seasons.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Tom Freese Blue Line Club College Hoops

South Alabama at Middle Tennessee St 

South Alabama is in a 42-14 ATS System that says to Play On favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 if they are out rebounding their opponents by 4 or more rebounds a game if they are off 4 straight games where they out rebounded by 10 or more. The Jaguars are 17-6 ATS off a double digit win. Middle Tennessee St is 3-8 ATS when playing off an ATS loss and they are 2-5 ATS on Thursday. The Blue Raiders are 1-4 ATS their last 5 home games vs. the Jaguars.

PLAY ON  SOUTH ALABAMA -

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COMPS


RAZOR SHARP
MIAMI/CHICAGO UNDER the total of 191


#1 SPORTS
MIAMI/CHICAGO UNDER the total of 191


EASY MONEY
TULSA -4.5


MIKE WYNN
UC-Santa Barbara


RedZone Sports
Valparaiso
MIAMI HEAT


BIG AL
Carolina Hurricanes
Phoenix Suns


TRACE ADAMS
Miami Heat


Scott Spreitzer
Georgia Tech


HAWKEYE
CHICAGO -2


THE VEGAS STEAMLINE
Cleveland St


HUDDLE UP
Boston College -4


PLATINUM PLAYS
WAKE FOREST DEMON


TV HOTLINE
S. ALABAMA -6


HD'S ACTIONLINE
Samford -3


COMPUTER SPORTS
U.MASS-11 1/2


DARK HORSE
NCAA - Boise State -3 over Nevada


TOTALS 4 U
PORTLAND/DALLAS OVER 184


NEVADA SHARPSHOOTER
MURRAY ST +1.5


DR VEGAS
Boise St -3 over Nevada


BIG TIME SPORTS
MIAMI / CHICAGO UNDER 191


SCOUT
Michigan +7 over Iowa


Paul Leiner
Prediction: 10* Over 193 Mia/Chi


Las Vegas Sports Advisors
Santa Barbara -11.5


Florida Booky Busters
Boston College -4.


Buck Shot Boys
Boston College -4.5


Capper Consensus 
CBA - Youngstown State +18.5


Chalk Plays
Massachusetts -11.5


Underdog Picks 
Eastern Illinois +7.5


Top Play Club
Chicago Bulls -2


System Picks
Tampa Bay +140

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Locksmith Sports

1 Unit on Washington +7.5

Washington's big win over UCLA gives the Huskies some much needed confidence and momentum when they set back out on the road tonight.  Washington won the first meeting this season at home by 8 points and I like this one to go right down to the wire so we'll take the points.  The Huskies are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning SU record.  The Huskies are also 14-5 ATS versus very good shooting teams making >=48% of their shots after 15+ games under coach Romar.  Oregon is just 16-31 ATS off a road win since 1997 and just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.  Take the points in what should be a nailbiter.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Wunderdog

Game: Rutgers at West Virginia
Pick: Rutgers +18

The Scarlet Knights are clearly in a rebuilding year, but their recent play suggests that they have improved as the season progresses. After suffering five consecutive double-digit losses to open Big East play, Rutgers has been much more competitive. They beat Villanova at home, won on the road convincingly at Pittsburgh, suffered a pair of OT losses and were edged by DePaul on the road by two points, representing their play in five of the last six games. The Mountaineers came out of the gate strong opening at 10-1, but have not been nearly as good since as they have been just 6-6. Their last five games shows an escape at home to lowly Marshall by two, a home loss to Georgetown and a 23-point drubbing at home agaisnt Cincinnati. They also claim a loss on the road to Pittsburgh and a win over Providence. A team that averaged winning in their first 10 wins by 31.9 points per game, has suddenly won only once by this pointspread since. Too many points and we will back Rutgers here.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

BEN BURNS

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

ARIZONA STATE
Game: Stanford vs. Arizona St. Game Time: 2/14/2008 10:30:00 PM Prediction: Arizona St. Reason: I'm taking the points with ARIZONA STATE. The Sun Devils will have some major "payback" on their minds this evening. That's because they had won 10 straight games before losing at Stanford last month. Note that those 10 victories included the likes of Xavier, Oregon, Arizona and California. Things turned ugly after the loss to the Cardinal though as the team reeled off five straight losses. However, the Sun Devils finally were able to "right the ship" last time out, scoring an upset win at Arizona, after trailing by as many as 16 points in the first half. Jeff Pendergraph, who leads the Pac-10 in field-goal-percentage, had a massive day, chipping in 29 points. The Sun Devils' defense did the rest as they held the Wildcats to a mere 54 points. That's no small accomplishment, considering that Arizona had previously been averaging 78 points per game at home. I expect Pendergraph and co. to have regained some confidence from that important win and for them to carry the positive momentum into tonight's "revenge" clash on FSN. Granted, the Cardinal have been rolling. They failed to cover last time out though and may look past tonight's game ahead to their next game, which comes vs. a high profile Arizona squad. I believe that the inflated lines that come with having a national ranking have started to catch up with Cardinal and I look for the revenge-minded Sun Devils to score the minor "upset." *Main Event

IOWA
Game: Michigan vs. Iowa Game Time: 2/14/2008 9:00:00 PM Prediction: Iowa Reason: I'm laying the points with IOWA. The Wolverines come in off a home win over Penn State while the Hawkeyes come in off a loss at Minnesota. That's not a negative though. In fact, Iowa has gone 15-5 SU and 14-5-1 ATS the last 20 times it was coming off a loss vs. a conference opponent. During the same stretch, Michigan was just 7-11 SU and 7-10-1 ATS when coming off a win vs. a conference opponent. The Spartans have also been horrible as road underdogs of this size. In fact, they've gone 1-12 SU and 2-11 ATS the last 13 times they were road underdogs of +6.5 to +9 points, including a 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS mark the past three seasons. During that time, note that Iowa was 3-1 SU/ATS as a home favorite in the -6.5 to -9 range. The Hawkeyes already handled the Wolverines at Michigan, winning by a score of 68-60. While the Wolverines are much worse on the road, the Hawkeyes are significantly better when playing at home. The Hawekeyes are arguably an improved team from when these clubs faced each other last month and they've covered the spread in five of their last six here at home. These teams last met here in February of 2006 and the Hawkeyes crushed the Wolverines by a score of 94-66. The Hawkeyes know that they can't afford to lose any "winnable" Big-10 home games. Look for the their strong defense (allow 53.7 ppg at home) to shut down a relatively weak Michigan offense, which manages a mere 61 on the road, leading to another convincing win and cover. *Valentine's Day Massacre

NHL

CAROLINA
Game: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Carolina Hurricanes Game Time: 2/14/2008 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Carolina Hurricanes Reason: I'm laying the price with CAROLINA. Both teams played Boston in their last game. Carolina beat the Bruins on Tuesday, while Pittsburgh lost against them last night. That's worth mentioning as we find the Penguins at just 6-14 the last 20 times that they played the second of back to back games. Note that the Penguins have also lost three of their last four road games, giving up four goals in each of the losses. A look at the standings shows that the Hurricanes "need" this game more than their guests. Although they've got the Devils breathing down their necks, the Penguins still sit on top of the Atlantic. They're also still tied for the second most points in the Eastern Conference. Conversely, Carolina is currently tied for the tenth spot in the conference, with division rival Atlanta. However, playing in the Southeast division helps, as the Hurricanes are tied for the division lead, with both the Thrashers and the Capitals. In fact, they were on top of the division before both Atlanta and Washington earned points yesterday. My point about their poisition in the standings is that there should be no "complacency" on Carolina's part. As Sergei Samsonov said after the Boston win: "We're battling for a playoff spot. For us, it's almost a playoff game..." The Hurricanes lost their last two games at Pittsburgh. However, they've won three straight against the Penguins here in Carolina, outscoring the Pens by a 13-5 margin. Looking back further and we find that the Hurricanes have won six of the last seven series meetings here. They're also 19-11 (+5.7) when facing a team which defeated them in their previous meeting. Looking back a bit further and we find that the Hurricanes are 66-41 the past three seasons when playing a home game with an over/under line of six or greater. During the same stretch, the Pens were just 35-59 when playing a road game with an over/under line of six or great. I expect the Hurricanes to continue their home ice success in this series, earning another important two points.*Personal Favorite

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Alex Smart

North Carolina State +4.5

Boston College is a young team, in a rebuilding season, and have shown their vulnerabilities of late with 6 straight losses. NC State their visiting opponents are hard working bunch, that are capable of making life difficult for any ACC rival they face, as was evident in recent wins against Florida State, Wake Forest and Virgina Tech. Here in this spot against a team that is struggling , a Wolfpack upset is not out of the question. Final notes & Key Trends: The underdog has cashed in 4 of the L/5 meetings. Take the points with NC State

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

FERRINGO

7-Unit Play. Take #736 Boise State (-2.5) over Nevada
I’ve had my eye on this one for a couple weeks. Boise State dominated the second half in Reno just a few short weeks ago - a surprisingly easy victory over a Nevada team that’s tough at home. So after a 15-point road victory I think Boise could even top that number tonight playing on their home court, where they are even better. Boise already has a win over BYU in Idaho and is taking on a Nevada team whose experience I’ve questioned from Day 1. Nevada has one player – Marcellus Kemp. Boise knows this. If they focus their defense on him, or if he gets into foul trouble, or if he’s just having a bad night, then this one could be a double-digit win. Boise scores more, has a better margin of victory, shoots a higher percentage, and is facing a team whose numbers (naturally) dip considerably on the road. I think we’ve found a strong spot here and I think Boise takes care of business.

2.5-Unit Play. Take #739 Georgia Tech (+8.5) over Clemson
Letdowns are kind of the theme of my picks today. We went against Clemson after their last heartbreaking overtime loss to North Carolina and cashed, so we’re going back to that mode of thought. Georgia Tech has been scrappy on the road this season – as opposed to their past road play – and I think they can make enough shots to take down a Clemson team that has to be looking past them.

2-Unit Play. Take #729 South Alabama (-6) over Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee is on a nice little 4-1 SU and ATS rush, but its been doing so against the weaker sisters of the Sun Belt. USA has been a much better road team than folks are giving them credit for (8-1 ATS this year) and I think MTSU has to beat them in order to get the cover here. I don’t think they will, so we’ll back the far superior team. USA’s last six road wins have come by an average of 10.2 points so hopefully they can just have an “average” night.

2.5-Unit Play. Take #709 Drexel (+12) over Old Dominion
Letdown. Old Dominion played a peak game over the weekend in a win over George Mason and I don’t think they will have back-to-back light’s out nights. The crowd won’t be as rowdy, the energy won’t be as electric and the play won’t be as sharp. Drexel is awful. But they have some physical talent and they have the best player on the floor. ODU should get a win, but don’t be surprised if they let the Dragons back in the game in the last 10 minutes for our cover.

2-Unit Play. Take #713 Illinois-Chicago (-3) over Detroit
Detroit stinks. UI-C is one of the hottest 3-point shooting teams in the country right now and they could bury the Titans with a barrage from the outside. Not really much more to say. I just think Detroit is awful.

2-Unit Play. Take #718 North Texas (-9) over Denver
When Denver loses, they lose big. North Texas was a juggernaut at home early in the season and I think they rekindle some of that magic. Denver’s Princeton offense is much more effective at home where they are a better shooting team and the have the home crowd to build them up. The Pioneers are the worst road team in the country, going winless to this point of the season with numerous blowout losses. As long as the Mean Green come out with an edge and come out in attack mode they should run Denver right out of the gym.

2.5-Unit Play. Take #734 Oregon (-7) over Washington
Washington is awful. I have a litany of reasons why they were lucky to beat UCLA, but the bottom line is that I’m looking for a letdown out of the Huskies after their big win. This is a huge game for the Ducks if they have any postseason aspirations, and this is one of the Pac-10’s more angry hoops rivalries. I don’t think the Huskies defend well enough to shut down the Ducks’ perimeter attack and with a boost from the home faithful I see Oregon getting a double-digit win.

3-Unit Play. Take #762 Charleston (-3) over Chattanooga
The Cougars are going to bounce back after their embarrassing loss to rival Davidson over the weekend. That was their worst performance of the season and that they take out their frustrations on a team that’s dropped its last four road games.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Jeff Alexander Sports

1 Unit on Iowa -6.5

Iowa beat Michigan by 8 on the road where the Hawks have not been very deadly this season.  I like them to win on their home floor by double digits tonight.  Iowa is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games and 8-4 ATS in its last 12.  The Hawks are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS versus the Wolverines the past 3 seasons.  Michigan is 0-6 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs. an opponent as a favorite over the last 2 seasons, 2-11 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points since 1997, and  2-12 ATS in road games after playing a game as favorite over the last 2 seasons.  Iowa is 10-1 ATS in home games off a road loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons and 11-3 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.  Take the Hawks at home.

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Brandon Lang

10 Dime
Georgia Tech
Illinois-Chicago
Boise St

5 Dime
Middle Tenn State
Pacific
Miami Heat

Free - New Orleans

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Johnny Guild

Butler Bulldogs - 18

Rutgers Scarlet Knights + 18

Stanford Cardinal - 3½

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

Mr.A's

Chicago Bulls - 2

Phoenix Suns - 6½

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Re: Thursday Service Plays

KEITH MARTIN

Michigan @ Iowa  Over 118.5

Michigan plays a little more open with nearly 60 shots for and against on average. Looking over Michigans numbers on the road 61-70 is almost exact to their conf scores 62-70. Yes Iowa plays a slower style game. At home they have 58-53 ave score and in conf we see 55-60. The past 15 games for Michigan have ALL gone over todays posted total. The last time Iowa went over the 118.5 was on 1-19-08 when they played @ Michigan (68-60). The past 3 matchups and 6 of 10 have gone over. The first matchup of these two this season had a few numbers stick out. 47 threes were thrown up hitting 18. While thats a decent average, whats not is the free throws. Michigan only took 8 free throws (season ave is 16) and Iowa 24. The two made 20 of 32 free throws. So if they continue the decent shooting from the floor and get to the line more than they did the first time and hit around 70% from the line then this game goes over easy.

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DOC'S

3 Unit Play. #713 Take Chicago -2 ½ over Detroit
A simply look at the conference records is all that you need to know about this game. The Titans are 1-12 in the conference this season and have been just 4-9 when playing Calihan Hall. Chicago gets their fourth road victory on the season.

4 Unit Play. #718 Take North Texas -9 over Denver
On paper this game appears to be pretty even, but the Pioneers are one of the worst road teams in the Nation. You can bet against them blindly on the road as they have yet to record a victory this season (0-12). All five of their conference losses have been by double-digits and this slow down style of offense has been dreadful on the road. The Mean Green also have revenge on their mind, as Denver knocked them off earlier this season and you can be sure this will be an all-out blowout.

3 Unit Play. #734 Take Oregon -7 ½ over Washington
The Ducks still have an outside chance of getting a birth in the NCAA Tournament by need a sweep of the Washington school in order to move their record over the .500 mark. Washington has lost four of their last five games and expect them to come out flat after a big win over UCLA on Sunday. The Ducks got back on track with a big victory over the Bears in the Bay Area and will follow that up with another victory tonight @ the Pit.

3 Unit Play. #737 Take Wake Forest +6 over Florida State 
The road continues to be a winning ticket for the ACC and tonight the Demon Deacons will complete the season sweep of the Seminoles. FSU has lost six of their last eight games and will make it seven of their last nine on Thursday.

3 Unit Play. #739 Take Georgia Tech +8 ½ over Clemson 
The Yellow Jackets seem to be competitive in all of their games recently and will take this one down to the wire just like they did last year in Death Valley. The Tigers are coming off a devastating loss to UNC in double overtime on Sunday in which they had their chances but could not put away the Tar Heels. They will not have much left in the tank tonight and Tech comes in and challenges the Tigers right down to the wire.

3 Unit Play. #765 Take Eastern Kentucky -6 over Jacksonville State
This team squads are heading in different directions in the Ohio Valley Conference, as the Colonials enter this game having won five straight affairs. The Gamecoks are just 2-20 on the season when you take out their non-division one victories. They are 2-14 in the conference and already lost by 16 points earlier this season in Kentucky. This game in Alabama will follow a similar path and we collect big in the process.

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Gina

Miami Heat (9-42) at Chicago Bulls (20-31)

Both Miami and Chicago are two disappointing teams, The Heat have dropped eight straight and their last five road games, while the Bulls have lost seven of its last 10 and three of its last four at home. Despite that, the Bulls have been the better of the two, winning the last five meetings, going 5-0 ATS. Go with Chicago in the windy city. Miami is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road and the injury-riddled Bulls have won and covered the spread in the last four meetings, 8-2 ATS in its last 10 against them at the United Center.

Chicago Bulls

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