Monday's Service Plays

Monday's Service Plays

Mighty Quinn

Valpo


RedZone Sports

Dallas Mavericks.


Scott Spreitzer

Golden St


Cappers Access

Georgetown

Texas


Joe Wiz Ill

Chicago

San Fran


Dave Cokin

Bucks

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Alex Smart

Game: Phoenix Coyotes vs. Dallas Stars

Prediction: Dallas Stars
Reason: The Dallas Stars enter into this home game, against Wayne Gretzkys Phoenix Coyotes in top form having won 6 straight games, while outscoring their opponents by a 20-9 count. The Coyotes have lost 4 of their L/5, and have been a bad bet in recent meetings in this series,losing 9 of the L/12 meetings. Final notes & Key Trends: The Stars have won 6 straight meetings against Western Conference teams.

Play on the Stars -1.5 puckline

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Jimmy the Moose

San Antonio Spurs at Toronto Raptors

The Spurs lost to the Celtics last night and are now 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games. San Antonio is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games. The Spurs are also 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. Eastern Conference opponents. San Antonio is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played after 0 days rest. The Raptors played on Sunday and easily beat the T' Wolves. The Raptors are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Southwest opponents. Toronto is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games. In their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning record the Raptors are also 6-2 at the window.

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Steve Merril

Loyola Marymount vs. Gonzaga
Play: Loyola Marymount   

It will be very difficult for Gonzaga to be focused for this game as they already beat Loyola by 23 points last month. This same situation occurred last year when Gonzaga won the first meeting by 35 points and then lost the rematch outright by 6 points.

Gonzaga is coming off an easy 101-59 win on Saturday and they now fit a negative 28-59 ATS situation which plays against big home favorites playing with just one day’s rest. Gonzaga was in a similar situation last month when they won by just 8 points as a 19½ point home favorite versus San Francisco.

Loyola is 2-0 ATS in their past two games and they have only lost once in their past eight games by more than 24 points. This line seems a bit inflated as my power ratings favor Gonzaga by only 30 points, and Loyola fits a 71-38 ATS contrary indicator which plays on big road underdogs that are coming off a SU road loss.

Play LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT


John Ryan

Loyola Marymount vs. Gonzaga
Play: Gonzaga     

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Gonzaga - This may be the largest favorite ever graded by the AiS, but we also had Gonzaga identified in their last game, which was a 42 point blowout of Pepperdine. Gonzaga was a 23 point favorite in that game. AiS shows a 70% probability that Gonzaga will win this game by 32 or more points. They also have a 90% probability of scoring 81 or more points in this game. Note that Gonzaga is 18-5 ATS when they score 81 or more points in a game over the last 2 seasons. Gonzaga is a strong offensive team and Loyola is 1-8 ATS in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams that are making >=37% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons. Gonzaga is nailing 3’s at a 39.2% clip this season. Loyola is a terrible team and they get just 9 offensive boards and 32.6 total boards per game. Note that Loyola is 0-6 ATS after 2 straight games with 9 or less offensive rebounds this season. Take Gonzaga.

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James Patrick Sports

Wizards vs. Warriors 10:35 p.m. est. NBA
Warriors have been scorching the basket as they are on a 8-2 Over the Total run. Tonight’s opponent offers no defensive challenge for Golden State and we look for #514 Washington – Golden State to fly Over the Total as our Monday NBA


Dave Cokin
         
509 Clippers @ 510 Bucks 8:05PM ET

Play: Bucks

Clippers looked like they had no legs in Saturday's loss at Philly. Hard to imagine them getting new life as they wrap up a lengthy road trip. The Bucks are off a loss to the Knicks, but they're actually respectable overall at home. This is mostly a play against the Clippers, although I do like the fact Milwaukee has moved Villanueva into the starting lineup. He's an upgrade over Yi at this point. Bucks minus the points tonight.

         
Brad Diamond Sports

Play on: Pepperdine plus over Portland
The road team in this series is running at an 80% clip with the underdog sizzling at 5-0 ATS. Pepperdine is 8-1 ATS off an ATS loss and 6-0 ATS after allowing over 90 points in their last game. Portland is 0-5-1 ATS at home L6, while suffering with and 0-4-1 ATS mark at home versus a team with a losing record on the road. Finally, Portland is 7-20 ATS after a SU victory. Portland has won 5 straight in this series by an average margin of just 5.2 points per game. Although Portland owns the series lately, all the emotion rests with the desperate visitor, who despite many player losses, will not letdown this evening.


Marc Lawrence

Play On: Charlotte Hornets
Note: The first thing Kobe Bryant will likely do when he leads his traveling band of Lakers into Charlotte tonight will be to look for an oxygen bar. That's what happens to a team playing its 8th consecutive road game in 12 twelve days. To make matters worse, they conclude this dizzying road trek Wednesday night in Minneapolis. Enter the Bobcats, off a 26-point loss last night, knowing they are 15-5 SU & 16-4 ATS at home against unrested opponents when Charlotte owns a win percentage of .290 or higher. They are also 19-7-1 ATS in their franchise history when playing at home without rest, including 7-0 ATS against .560 or greater opposition. With that, look for the Bobcats to improve to 6-0 ATS in this series against tiring Los Angeles tonight.


Great Lakes Sports
      
San Antonio at Toronto
Play on: San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs are 2-0 ATS the last two years at Toronto, and 36-30 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent the last three years. The San Antonio Spurs is also 67-60 ATS when playing in February since 1996, and 74-62 ATS vs Atlantic division opponents since 1996. We look for the San Antonio Spurs to dismantle the Toronto Raptors for the road ATS Win & cover tonight.
         

Tom Freese
         
Utah St at Nevada
Utah St is 24-10 ATS after scoring 75 or more points in two straight games and they are 4-1 ATS their last 5 games vs. a team with a win percentage of over 60%. The Aggies are 9-5 straight up their last 14 games vs. the Wolfpack. Nevada is in a 117-70 ATS Play Against System that says to go against home teams who are a pick or favorite if they have in season revenge if their opponent is off 3 straight conference wins. PLAY ON UTAH ST +

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VEGAS SPORTS PICS

Villanova Wildcats + 13.5 over (at) Georgetown Hoyas

No.6 Georgetown (19-3, 9-2) vs. Villanova (14-8, 4-6) went 1-2 vs. the Hoyas last season, the two losses coming by a combined eight points. Wildcats are 6-0 at the Verizon Center.


Texas Longhorns + 4.5 over Kansas Jayhawks

No.4 Kansas (23-1, 8-1) at No.12 Texas (19-4, 6-2) is 12-1 at home this season, 2-0 over the Jayhawks last two home meetings, and 11-2 in 13 ESPN Big Monday home games.

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Brandon  Lang

5 Dime - Illinois/Chicago
5 Dime - Wisconsin/Green Bay
5 Dime - Texas

FREE - San Diego

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Jimmy Boyd

Dallas vs. Philadelphia   
Take Dallas Mavericks

1 Unit on Dallas -3.5 The Mavs led by 11 points before allowing a 36-6 spurt by the Nets Sunday as they lost big. Dallas is a championship caliber team and it will want to erase yesterday's poor performance as soon as possible. Philly is playing its best ball of the year, but it will run into a buzz saw tonight. The Mavs are 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 games in Philly. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points and 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss period. The 76ers are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 1 days rest and 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. We'll play the Mavs tonight in this bounce back spot.

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Arthur Ralph

Super Pick: SAN DIEGO

900 GOLD KEY: St Mary's

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LT Profits Sports Group

Cleveland State is stumbling after a hot start inside the conference, going 0-6 ATS in their last six games. Wisconsin-Green Bay is 4-0 ATS last four, and they get the call.

The Cleveland State Vikings are 8-5 in Horizon League play including a home upset of Butler, but they have really hit the skids of late and the Wisconsin-Green Bay Phoenix could tie them in the conference standings with a win tonight.

In fact, the Vikings are on a six-game losing streak against the spread, and after beginning  the season 7-0 straight up in conference play, they had lost five in a row before a non-covering 60-56 win over a lousy Detroit team on Saturday. This skid began with a 59-50 loss to the Phoenix in Green Bay on January 24.

On the other hand, the Phoenix have been faithful to their supporters, as they are a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four games to move to 12-8, 60.0 percent ATS overall for the season. More importantly they have dominated this head-to-head series from a betting perspective, going 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.

Perhaps Cleveland State is now feeling the pressure after their surprisingly hot conference start, so we will side with the much hotter team as an underdog in this spot.

Free Pick: Wisconsin-Green Bay +3½

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Bob Harvey

Behind the talented duo of Brandon Johnson and Gyno Pomare, the San Diego Toreros should extend their current winning streak to six games tonight at the San Francisco Dons.

The San Fiego Toreros (13-11, 6-1 WCC) put their five-game winning streak on the line vs. a San Francisco squad that comes in at 6-16 overall and just 2-5 in conference play.

The Toreros have two straight series wins including this season's WCC opener back on Jan  12 by a 46-41 score. San Diego has won five straight and six of seven, with five of the wins coming by eight points or less. The last time USD started WCC play with a 6-1 mark was in 1990-91.

Toreros guard Brandon Johnson ranks third in the league in scoring (16.9 ppg), tied for first in steals (2.09), sixth in assists (3.30), first in three-pointers made per game (2.30), and eighth in assist/turnover ratio (+0.99). San Diego's other top caliber player is forward Gyno Pomare who ranks seventh in scoring (14.3), seventh in rebounding (7.2), second in field goal percentage (.554), sixth in blocked shots (1.33) and leads the team with six double-double's.

After playing 11 of its last 14 games on the road, San Francisco opens a three-game homestand tonight. The Dons look to snap a two-game losing skid and improve on an impressive 3-1 conference record. San Francisco is just 1-5 ATS at home. USF is improved, but I'm going with San Diego to stay hot with another win and cover in the WCC.

Free Pick: San Diego -4

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Al McMordie

The Bobcats have covered five straight meetings with the Lakers, including winning three as underdogs of 5+ points.  Cash in on Charlotte at home against Los Angeles tonight.

Our Monday night NBA selection is on the Charlotte Bobcats at home plus the points over the Lakers, as Los Angeles is a terrible 17-36 ATS in the regular season off back-to-back wins and covers.

Los Angeles comes into tonight's game off wins over Orlando (117-113) and Miami (104-94), and the Purple and Gold covered the spread in each game.  Within our 17-36 set, the Lakers are also a terrible 1-7 ATS as road favorites vs. a foe off a SU loss.

Charlotte has dropped six in a row, but the Bobcats have always played great at home off a loss, going 57-38 ATS in their history, including a stellar 33-15 ATS vs. a foe off a SU win.  The Bobcats have covered five straight games vs. the Lakers (winning the last three outright as 9-, 5-, and 11-point dogs).  Take the points.

Free Pick: Bobcats +8

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Bob Akmens

Los Angeles Lakers -8.0

This play is the result of a successful computer model that has allowed Bob Akmens Sports to finish in first-place in 152 different categories of documented monitored handicapping contests since 1978.

The computer models I’ve developed for each sport look at the most-predictive variables that go into the winning and losing of games.

Several interesting factors in today’s play are as follows -

The LAKERS cover the spread when:

They’re away-favorites in this range of 6.5 to 9 points: 5-1 ATS last 6

They play a poor-defensive team: 17-7 ATS last 24

The BOBCATS fail to cover the spread when:

They’ve gone over the total in 3 or more consecutive games: 1-5 ATS last 6

They’ve lost their last game by at least 10 points: 3-11 ATS last 14

They’ve failed to cover ATS in at least 3 games in a row: 2-8 ATS last 10

GO WITH THE LAKERS -8 IN THIS 705PM EST MATCHUP.

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Wunderdog

Villonova at Georgetown
Pick: Georgetown -13

The Wildcats were cruising along with an 11-2 mark. Then Casiem Drummond went down with an injury and they have not been the same team since.The Wildcats have dropped seven of their last 11, and have covered just once in their last 13 games. Their last five losses have all been by double-digits. Georgetown is coming off a disappointing loss on the road at Louisville. You can be sure they will be focused and hungry for this one, as their margin for error is gone, sitting with just a one-game lead in the Big East. The Hoyas are 12-0 at home and have won 10 of them by double-digits, and own 19 and 27-point wins coming back off their two losses. We're afraid ‘Nova is in the wrong place at the wrong time, Hoyas roll.

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Doc’s Sports

4 Unit Play. #518 Take Cleveland State -3 ½ over Green Bay
The Vikings appeared to be heading to a No. 1 seed in the Horizon League but then lost five straight including a trip to Green Bay. They now have revenge on their mind and will take care of business tonight at the Wolestein Center. The Phoenix have been a bad road team all season long going just 3-8 and State still has a 9-3 record despite dropping a game their against Wright State. The Vikings have already beaten Butler and Valpo in Cleveland and Green Bay will come next.

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John Ryan

5* Villanova
5* Texas
2* Texas ML
3* Dallas Stars


Josh Dean

20* Spurs -2

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JIM FEIST

How much defensive energy is Washington going to have left against the run-and-gun Warriors? This is the third game in four nights for the Wizards, and they had to run up and down the court on Sunday against the Suns. Washington started 14-7 over the total on the road, and you can believe the rested Warriors will run right at this tired Wizards team a long way from home. Golden State is 9-2 over the total the last 11 games.

Play the Wizards/Warriors over the total!


DAVE COKIN

Clippers looked like they had no legs in Saturday's loss at Philly. Hard to imagine them getting new life as they wrap up a lengthy road trip. The Bucks are off a loss to the Knicks, but they're actually respectable overall at home. This is mostly a play against the Clippers, although I do like the fact Milwaukee has moved Villanueva into the starting lineup. He's an upgrade over Yi at this point. Bucks minus the points tonight."

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BEN BURNS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL

SANTA CLARA
Game: St. Marys vs. Santa Clara Game Time: 2/11/2008 11:00:00 PM Prediction: Santa Clara Reason: I'm taking the points with SANTA CLARA. The Broncos will have "payback" on their minds as they lost by 31 points at St. Mary's last month. That loss seemingly served as a "wake-up call" as the Broncos have been playing much better since. In fact, they've won four of six games, going a profitable 5-1 ATS. Those two losses were both very close too as they came by five points (in double overtime) vs. Gonzaga and by two points at San Diego. Gonzaga has been the class of the conference for years and there's no shame in a closs loss at San Diego either, especially when considering that St. Mary's lost by eight there two nights later. Off the hard-fought and emotionally draining win at Gonzaga, Santa Clara was a bit flat for it's next game. However, behind a big effort by the defense, the Broncos still gutted out a 52-50 win vs. Portland. The Broncos, 53-31 ATS the past decade after holding their previous opponent to 60 points or less, will have had plenty of time to recover from the Gonzaga loss now, as the game vs. Portland was a full week ago. Note that the Broncos, who allow 61 points per game at home, are an impressive 43-18 SU (39-20 ATS) when playing with five or six day's rest in between games. The Gaels are having an excellent season and come in with an impressive ranking. They've been beatable on the road though, going just 2-3 SU/ATS in their true road games. Like the Broncos, they're coming off a strong defensive performance, holding San Francisco to just 51 points. Unlike the Broncos, they haven't been strong when coming off that type of effort. In fact, they're just 9-18 ATS the past few seasons after holding their previous opponent to 60 points or less. While the Gaels are solid defensively themselves, they don't typically fare too well against other strong defensive clubs, as they're just 4-12-1 ATS (5-12 SU) since 2005 when facing a team which allows 64 points or less. The Broncos were slight underdogs when they hosted St. Mary's last season and they won by 16 points. The previous season, the Broncos beat the Gaels by seven points here. Looking back further and we find that the Broncos have won 10 of the last 15 meetings when listed as the series host and that they're 12-7-1 ATS the last 20 series meetings overall. Look for a massive effort tonight, as they continue their strong play and improve to 4-0 ATS the last four times they attempted to avenge a road loss. *Big Monday GOM

SAN FRANCISCO
Game: San Diego vs. San Francisco Game Time: 2/11/2008 11:00:00 PM Prediction: San Francisco Reason: I'm taking the points with SAN FRANCISCO. The Dons nearly beat San Diego on the road in their first meeting and I expect them to bring some confidence from that result into tonight's meeting. I also expect them to have learned from the experience and look for them to double-team Gyno Pomare more regularly this time, taking him out of the Toreros' offense. The Toreros, who have been mediocre away from home, are in a tough spot as this will mark their third consecutive road game. Note that the Toreros barely managed to win at Pepperdine (USF also won there) last time out, failing to cover as -3.5 point favorites and falling to 5-11 ATS their last 16 games played in the month of February. Although they didn't fare too well at St Mary's, I believe that the young San Francisco players are finally beginning to understand and use coach Eddie Sutton's gameplan effectively. Note that Sutton, who recently picked up his 800th career victory, was coaching just his fourth game with USF the last time these teams met. Looking at the recent series history and we find that the Dons have won four of the last six meetings here and that the two losses came by just two and three points. In fact, the last three meetings here have all been decided by three points or less. I'm expecting another game which comes down to the wire and feel that getting a handful of points (currently +4) with the home team offers excellent value.

BEN BURNS
NBA BASKETBALL

CHARLOTTE
Game: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Charlotte Bobcats Game Time: 2/11/2008 7:00:00 PM Prediction: Charlotte Bobcats Reason: I'm taking the points with CHARLOTTE. Both teams played yesterday. The Lakers won at Miami while the Bobcats lost at Detroit. That's no real surprise though as the Bobcats have been dismal on the road. They've been competitive here at home for most of the season though, prior to losing their last four here. Note that three of those four losses came by single-digits though and that two of the single-digit losses came against other elite Western Conference teams, Dallas and San Antonio. Prior to that skid, the Bobcats had won four of five here, going a perfect 5-0 against the number. They've beaten some quality teams over the season here, including Cleveland, Orlando, Portland, Utah and Denver. They also hung within three points of Detroit here and lost by only one when they hosted the Celtics. Although both teams will now be playing the second of back to back games, the Lakers' scheduling situation has been much more gruelling. In fact, they'll be playing their eighth different road game in the past 12 days. Conversely, this will mark Charlotte's sixth game during the same stretch. The Bobcats haven't been bothered when playing a home game after playing the previous day. They've been in that situation four times this season and they've gone 3-1 ATS. They blew out Memphis in one of those games and the other three (Philly, Detroit, Boston) were all decided by seven points or less. The Bobcats have also enjoyed success against the Lakers, going a perfect 5-0 ATS the last five series meetings. They won the last three of those games outright and the two losses both came by just a single point. Desperate to snap their losing streak, look for a highly motivated effort by the Bobcats tonight as they continue their ATS success in this series by earning us (at least) the cover. *Non-Conference GOM

GOLDEN STATE
Game: Washington Wizards vs. Golden State Warriors Game Time: 2/11/2008 10:35:00 PM Prediction: Golden State Warriors Reason: I'm laying the points with GOLDEN STATE. The Wizards are in a very tough spot here. For starters, they're still without Gilbert Arenas. To their credit, they've managed to be fairly competitive without last year's leading scorer. That's had a lot to do with the excellent play of Caron Butler. The small forward was named to the East All-Star team and is averaging a career-high 21.4 points. However, Butler didn't play again last night and he's now missed six of the past eight games. He's listed as doubtful for tonight's game but even if he plays, he can't be expected to play like his "All-Star self." The Wizards may get Antonio Daniels back tonight. Like Butler, even if he does play, he may not be 100% though. Regardless of who plays and who doesn't, the Wizards will be facing a highly explosive team. In fact, the Warriors 112.5 points per game at home is the best in the entire league. The Warriors always love to run up and down the floor and they'll surely be doing so against their injury depleted and road-weary guests . While the Warriors had last night off, the Wizards played an extremely hard fought game at Phoenix, taking the Suns down to the wire and eventually losing by a point. In addition to playing the second of back to back games, the Wizards will also be playing in their fifth different city in the past seven days. Prior to last night's draining defeat, the Wizards, 0-3 SU/ATS the last three times they played the second of back to back games, played a hard-fought game in the high altitude of Denver. Look for it to catch up to them tonight as the Warriors run them off the floor with a convincing victory, improving to 9-3 ATS the last dozen series meetings. *Personal Favorite

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Michael Cannon

Villanova (+13) at GEORGETOWN

A tough loss on Clemson last night as it looked like they were going to pull off the outright win, then lose by 10 in double overtime. Despite that setback, I'm still on a 9-4 run with my last 13 overall free plays. Take Villanova as the big road dog tonight over Georgetown. The Wildcats needed a 3-pointer in the final minute to get by Seton Hall and avert a six-game losing streak. But they've been money in the bank against Georgetown at the Verizon Center. The Wildcats have never lost to the Hoyas at the Verizon Center, going 6-0 and holding Georgetown under 70 points in each game. In fact, Villanova's last road loss to Georgetown came way back in 1997, when the Hoyas were playing at US Air Arena. Given the fact that Georgetown hasn't really blown anybody out this year, coupled with Villanova's success against them on the road, this should be an easy cover for the Wildcats. Take the points with Villanova as they stay within the number.

4* VILLANOVA


Allen Eastman

NBA

Take Dallas Mavericks –4 over Philadelphia.

Dallas is coming off a loss Sunday to New Jersey. In fact losing on the road has become a bad habit for the Mavericks who have dropped three of their last four away from Dallas. Injuries have been a problem for the Mavs who finally got Jerry Stackhouse and Eric Dampier back. Seeing the Sixers, who they drilled by 15-points in there first meeting, should get Dallas back on track.


CBB selection: Take Utah State +6.5 over Nevada.

Utah State is 18-6 on the season and in first-place in the WAC with an 8-1 record. The Aggies have won 13 of its last 14 games and three of its last four on the road. Utah State is leading the WAC in free throw shooting (.783) and three-point shooting (.399), and is second in the conference in overall shooting (.505), scoring defense (68.1), scoring margin (+4.8) and assists (17.92). Traditionally these games against Nevada have been tight ones decided in the final minute or so. However Utah beat Nevada by 14 points at home less than two weeks ago and they should it keep it close at Nevada tonight.

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