Sunday Service Plays

Sunday Service Plays

Ben Burns NFL Playoff TOY

Triple-dime bet GBP / NYG Under 40.5

Analysis: I'm playing on the Packers and Giants to finish UNDER the number. Its true that Green Bay saw last week's game here vs. Seattle finish above the total. However, that was due in large part to a couple of turnovers leading to easy touchdowns and the game taking on a different "feel" as a result. Conversely, the Giants have seen both of their playoff games finish below the total. Having outplayed Brad Johhsnon and Tony Romo and having avoided costly mistakes, Eli Manning continues to get the majority of his team's accolades. Its been the Giants' defense which has quietly carried the load though. After giving up an early touchdown in their opener against Tampa, the Giants' defense stiffened and blanked the Bucs through the second and third quarters, eventually surrendering only 14 points. It was more of the same against the Cowboys last week. After surrendering 14 points in the first half, the Giants' defense "dug deep" and held the high-scoring Cowboys to a mere three points in the second half, including none in the second half. That's pretty impressive considering that the Cowboys scored more points than any other team in the NFC this season, second only to the Patriots in the entire league. That low-scoring result marked fourth time in their past seven games that the Giants had held an opponent to 17 points or less. Only one of those seven opponents scored more than 22 points, and that was the Patriots in a "meaningless" game. Five of the seven games produced 38 combined points or less. As is the case in New York, the quarterback gets the bulk of the attention in Green Bay. While Favre has certainly had an impressive season, its the defense, which ranks second in the NFC in terms of points allowed, which has quietly gotten the job done. Indeed, the Packers are allowing only 18.2 points per game. The Giants last visited Lambeau in 2004, scoring a 14-7 upset. Their previous visit here was way back in 1995 when they combined with the Packers for just 20 points. On what is expected to be an extremely cold Sunday, I'm expecting another low-scoring affair. *Playoff TOY

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BIG AL's 100% (27-0) NFL PLAYOFF GOY: GREEN BAY

At 6:30 pm, on Sunday, our NFL Playoff Game of the Year is on the Green Bay Packers minus the points over the NY Giants. New York is playing solid football, no doubt, but this will be its third consecutive road game in the Playoffs. Teams struggle on the road off back-to-back road games, no matter if it's the regular season, or the playoffs, and it won't help the Giants any that Green Bay also will have an extra day to rest since the Packers played on Saturday. And like Saturday's game vs. Seattle, Lambeau Field should be blanketed by snow, with temperatures hovering around 8 degrees. Last week, the Packers spotted Seattle a 14-0 lead on the heels of two Ryan Grant fumbles, and then outscored Seattle 42-6 the rest of the way. New York doesn't have a one-dimensional offense like the Seahawks, but the Giants do have a weak secondary that Brett Favre should be able to exploit. New York's modus operandi under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo is to blitz in order to "protect" its weak secondary by forcing an opposing quarterback to get rid of the ball faster. But Brett Favre, behind terrific offensive tackles Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher, will get ample protection, and he won't have any problems finding open receivers in Green Bay's West Coast-style offense. It also is key that coach Mike McCarthy is an expert play-caller (one of the NFL's best). These two teams met earlier this season, and Green Bay easily won 35-13. For technical support, consider that NFL road dogs priced from +3 to +9.5 points have covered 0 of 14 games in the Playoffs since January 4, 1987 if they're matched up against a non-division foe that scored 35+ points the previous week! And unrested revenging teams, off back-to-back upsets, are a dismal 0-13 ATS since 1987 on the road vs. non-division foes, if they are not getting more than 8 points.

Take Green Bay.

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LARRY NESS

My 20* Championship GOY is on the GB Packers

The last time these two storied NFL franchises met in the playoffs was in the 1962 NFL Championship Game. Green Bay was coached by Vince Lombardi and its QB was Bart Starr, while New York's head coach was Allie Sherman and its QB, the late-YA Title. The Packers won that game 16-7 in New York and will win again here, only the score WON'T be that close this time around. Congrats to the Giants for their wins over the Buccs (a fraud!) and Cowboys (finished year on an 0-5 ATS run!) on the road but now they'll have to win in Lambeau Field, where the Packers are 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS this year. Not only are they playing their third straight playoff game on the road but it's their SIXTH road game in their last eight games. Yes, I realize the Giants have won NINE straight road games (includes neutral site win in London) but am I supposed to believe they have an ADVANTAGE playing in Lambeau? Over Green Bay's last five home games, the Pack have won by margins of 34, 14, 31, 21 and 22 points! History shows that NINE teams have attempted to win a third straight playoff game on the road since the Wild Card round was added in 1978. Just two teams have completed the 'road trifecta' and made it to the Super Bowl The Pats in '85 and the Steelers in '05. Only ONE of the seven SU losers (the '95 Colts) 'covered' in their title game loss, as the other six games were decided by 29, 14, 7, 27, 14 and 20 points! That's just one game decided by less than 14 points, with the average margin of defeat being 17.5 PPG. Let's take a close look at the Giants. Eli Manning owns a career QB rating of 73.4 over 57 regular season games. In Week 17 against the Pats, he threw for 251 yards and four TDs with a QB rating of 118.6. In New York's two playoff wins, he's only threw for 185 and 163 yards but he's got four TDPs and zero INTs, plus QB ratings of 117.1 and 132.4. That's a three-game run in which his QB rating is almost 50 points better than his career average, while he's completed 70.1 percent of his throws with an 8-1 ratio. His career completion percentage is just 54.7 and his TD-to-INT ratio is 77-78. So just who is this guy who has been playing QB for the Giants these last three weeks? Green Bay's D allowed just 11.4 PPG at home over its final five games and after handing Seattle 14 points LW, held the Seahawks to just 150 yards (and two FGs) on their final 10 possessions! Green Bay owns two "shut-down" CBs in Harris and Woodson and on the year, allowed opposing QBs a rating of 75.6 (very similar to the 'real' Eli's career rating!). I haven't even mentioned that TE Shockey is out, Burress (one catch for five yards LW) is still nowhere near 100% or that the Giants have averaged just 3.6 YPC rushing in the two playoff wins, with just one TD. By the way, Green Bay allowed just six rushing TDs this season, tying Pittsburgh for the NFL-low. I haven't even spent much time on Favre and the GB offense, one which has scored 31 points or more in EIGHT of its last 10 games (Giants have topped 24 points just two times in their last 11). Favre stopped forcing things this year and began letting his teammates "make plays" and it turns out he's got a deep group of very good receivers and it won't hurt here, that the Giants' secondary is battered and vulnerable. Then of course there's RB Ryan Grant, who has just been UNBELIEVABLE. He averaged 92.9 YPG (5.1 per) in the season's final 10 games and then last week....Well you KNOW what he did!

Championship GOY 20* GB Packers.

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Robert Ferringo

2.5-Unit Play. Take #306 Green Bay (-7) over New York Giants

2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 40.0 New York Giants at Green Bay Packers

I was on the G-Men last week, but I think it’s time to get off. This one is relatively simple to me: I don’t think that they have the corners to keep up with Green Bay’s passing attack. I think that this is just a bad, bad matchup for them. Also, Ryan Grant could have a similar type of day that Marion Barber had against the Giants last week and if that’s the case then New York will be in trouble. The Packers have been the best team in the NFC for over a month now and I think the home crowd will be enough of an edge here. I commend the Giants for their win at Dallas last week, but watching that game I felt like the Cowboys more blew that game with undisciplined play than the Giants won it by being the better team. The Packers lost to only two teams this year – Dallas and Chicago – because they are a solid all-around team. They are 14-4-2 ATS against the NFC, 5-0 ATS at home, and 19-7-2 ATS overall. They will force Eli Manning to make bad decisions – something he’s prone to anyway – and they will win the turnover battle. I’m looking for a 10- or 13-point Green Bay victory in a game that is still a little tense in the fourth quarter.

1.5-Unit Play. Take #304 New England (-14) over San Diego

Even if the Chargers were full strength, I’m not sure they would cover this line. They lose by 20+ points in their initial meeting in September. And while San Diego is playing much better ball over the past two months they still don’t stack up to the eventual champions. New England is 4-1 ATS in their last five AFC Championship games and they are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 January games. Further, the Pats are 8-3-1 ATS in home playoff games and 41-20-3 ATS against teams with a winning record. New England made it to the doorstep of the Super Bowl last year only to come up short and I don’t see them taking their foot off the gas for one instant this weekend. San Diego is 2-6 ATS as a double-digit underdog and they are simply too banged up to stand in New England’s way. Factor in a warm-weather, West Coast team traveling east to play in the snow, as well as some bad blood between the organizations over the past two years and I think this one has Pats rout written all over it.

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Vegas Sports Informer

NFL NFC-AFC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP PLAYS

5 Unit Play.Take Over 46 San Diego at New England

I’ve been looking to bet the Over on all New England games since Week 3 so taking the over in this game was pretty easy. New England should be able to score in the high 30’s against San Diego and I’m hoping the Chargers can score in the low 20’s. New England is 9-3 O/U as a home favorite and the Patriots are also 16-6-1 O/U in their last 23 games. San Diego is 5-0 O/U in their last 5 games as an underdog.

4 Unit Play.Take New England –14 over San Diego

With all of the injuries that San Diego has I’m surprised that New England wasn’t a 20-point favorite. New England beat the Chargers in Week 2 38-14 and I see the same results but a bigger beat down Sunday night. If San Diego struggles with injuries in this game we could see the Patriots winning by 20 points or more. New England is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home playoff games.

3 Unit Play.Take Green Bay –7 over NY Giants

Brett Favre looks to add another chapter to his legendary career and lead the Green Bay Packers into their 5th Super Bowl on Sunday by winning the NFC championship game against the Giants. It’s so hard for me to pick against Super Favre at home in the cold. Green Bay is 7-1 ATS as a home favorite and the Packers are also 11-3 ATS following a SU win.

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Strike Point Sports

NFL Conference Championship Picks

2-Unit Play.Take San Diego +14 over New England

The Pats have failed to cover their last four games, while San Diego is 7-0 ATS in its last seven following a SU win. I think that despite New England's dominance all season, this game will be competitive, mainly because of the pressure the Bolts will apply to Tom Brady. The Chargers are 11-3-2 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog, and in the most important game of the season, they will come to play.

3-Unit Play. Take San Diego/New England Over 47

There are just too many playmakers in this game for theese two teams not to shoot over the posted total. Tom Brady alone could play a big factor with the air attack, but with San Diego's turnover forcing defense and a special teams unit that is one of the best in the league, we'll see both teams account for 50+. I can definitely see the winner of this game at or above 30 points, and considering we see this being a single digit outcome, the loser will be over 20. Play the over here.

2-Unit Play.Take New York +7 over Green Bay

Cold weather, yes, and Brett Favre, but if Mike Vick and Atlanta can knock of Green Bay, then so can the red hot road Giants. New York has been outstanding away from Giant Stadium this season, as well as having covered their last four games in the playoffs as an underdog. The Packers are 1-4-2 ATS in their last seven at Lambeau vs. winning road teams, and I think the points will be good here, as New York has a great shot to take this one outright.

1-Unit Play.Take New York +260 over Green Bay

See above, but there is a lot of value on the Giants here. They enter the NFC championship playing arguably the best football of anyone over the last five or six games. The defense is comes in off a great outing limiting the NFC's top offense in Dallas, and I think they again show up strong against Green Bay. The offense is clicking with a solid balance of run and pass. Play New York small on the moneyline to win outright.

2-Unit Play. Take New York/Green Bay Over 40.5

This one, just like the AFC tilt, will go over its number. I see both teams here hitting for at least 20, while the weather can certainly play a role with favorable field position with turnovers and short punts. I see at least three mistakes via the cold, possible snowy weather. Two quarterbacks in Brett Favre and Eli Manning have shown in recent games they have been real successful down the field. They'll both cash in offensively and be a big reason for this game topping the total in this game.

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Doc's Sports

5 Unit Play. Take New England -14 over San Diego 

NFL Playoff Game of the Year. The path to perfection appears to be easy for the Patriots as this will likely be the smallest spread they see for the rest of the season. These two teams have already met once this season and it was no contest, with the Patriots winning 38-14. The Chargers are really banged up with QB Rivers, RB Tomlinson, and TE Gates all not 100%. New England never looks past their opponents and the Chargers have had no recent success against them. QB Brady can move this team up and down the field at will and should have no problem lighting up the scoreboard again. The Patriots set a record for most points scored and most touchdown passes. Jacksonville had a better game plan and still could not stay with them. The Chargers are a warm weather team and will not be used to playing in this type of environment. New England continues to roll and will likely enter the Super Bowl at around a 17 point favorite. New England 38, San Diego 10.

3 Unit Play.Take New York +7 over Green Bay

The Giants have been the best road team in the NFC and much like they did last week by beating Dallas, they will avenge an earlier loss to the Packers in this game. New York has possession receivers and a strong running game and that is a perfect recipe for success when playing in cold weather. The Packers are young and very inexperienced in big games and were fortunate that the Hawks rolled over and died once things starting to change at the end of the first quarter. Favre will be playing on the big stage for the first time in over a decade and expect him to come out and try and do too much, things that have cost him dearly in the past. The Giants have the ability to get pressure with their front four and they will wear down the offensive line of the Packers. New York 24, Green Bay 23.

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Matty O'Shea

NE/SD Over 46.0

Analysis: Do you honestly think the greatest scoring offense in NFL history will lay down and play conservatively with one game left before they get to the Super Bowl? I didn't think so. The Patriots will pull out all the stops and take advantage of every mismatch the Chargers present, just like they did in their Week 2 matchup. New England won that game 38-14 and has scored 31 points or more in 7 of 9 home games. San Diego is also averaging 28.5 points during its 8-game winning streak. The cold weather will likely affect the Chargers more than the Patriots, but I still see them scoring at least 20 points to stay in the game. Take the OVER as my Single Dime AFC Championship Play O' the Day.

GB / NYG Under 40.5

Analysis: Everybody saw what the Packers did last week, putting up their biggest postseason point total of all-time. This week, the weather will be much colder and both teams will likely turn this into a ball-control game with the better running team winning. Keep in mind that the Giants have won 9 straight road games, with the UNDER going 8-1 in those games. Also keep in mind that New York QB Eli Manning struggles in cold weather and will not be nearly as effective throwing the ball. While snow played a big factor last week for Green Bay, this team struggled in extreme cold conditions at Chicago on December 23rd in a 35-7 loss. That's why I think the running games will play such a big role in deciding who moves on to the Super Bowl. And that's why I believe this game will go UNDER as my Double Dime NFL Conference Championship Play O' the Week.

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Wild Bill

Patriots -14 (4 units) Brady & Company are much healthier in this matchup at home and the receiving arsenal the Patriots have will create havor in the Charger secondary. Maroney also will be a vital key as will special teams, turnovers and homefield advantage. Colts game, Chargers gave 100% and they will bring it to the Patriots as well, however the 2nd half the Bolts will wear down. New England 31 Chargers 10.

Over 42 Packers-Giants (5 units) All out war in the trenches in this tilt and Eli will have to throw more than 18 passes for the Giants to win or to even have a chance here in this spot. Giants gave it all they had last week as well vs the Cowboys who completely left their energy in the locker room at half time after the Giants went down the field in less than 50 seconds to tie it up 14-14 at Dallas. The Packers got out of the gate horribly, turning the ball over twice in the first 2 minutes of the game vs Seattle. Favre and company will have their game faces on and have a huge home field advantage. The Giants have won 9 straight on the road however their earlier matchup at home vs the Packers was an embarassment 35-13 loss to the Packers. Favre and former Giant, Ryan Grant will have huge days, however the special teams and defense will make a strong effort for both teams and Home Field factors will help the Packers. These are professional players and weather could play into the factor of this game, however, 42 points is a bit too low for me. Brett Favre could be playing his last game in Green Bay and Bill Parcells awaits Tom Coughlin losing so he can officially talk to him about the Dolphin job. Packers 34 Giants 17.

Packers -6 1/2 (3 units)

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Vegas Vic

Chargers +14

New York Giants +7

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LT Profits

New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers u39.5

You could almost throw out all of the statistics when the Green Bay Packers host the New York Giants in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday.

Yes, the Packers have gone Over in eight consecutive games, and the Over is now 13-4 in all Green Bay games including playoffs. However, there is an excellent reason that this total has been dropping steadily throughout the week to the point where it has now dipped below 40.

The latest forecast calls for a wind-chill factor of around -40 degrees for this evening start, which will make the football feel like a boulder. This is now a typically cold snow game like the Packers enjoyed in a 42-20 romp over the Seahawks last week, but rather an extreme condition that we recall has happened just twice in playoff history. The first was the famous Ice Bowl right here on this field, and the other was when a high-powered San Diego offense led by Dan Fouts went into Cincinnati in extreme cold similar to what is expected Saturday, and both those games were low scoring as it was impossible to pass.

The Giants are accustomed to low-scoring affairs, as the Under is 8-1 during their record nine-game road winning streak. Their defense has gotten better as the season has gone on, and they have a reliable running game, which will be crucial in this contest. Besides, quarterback Eli Manning has never performed well in cold weather, so do not expect him to throw all that often in these extreme conditions.

The bottom line here is that the Giants backs and Green Bay’s Ryan Grant will get the majority of the work, so even with this total dropping, we still like the Under at this number.

NFL Free Pick: Giants, Packers Under 39.5

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Big Al Playoff Game Of The Year

Packers


AKMENS

Green Bay -7.5
San Diego +14

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Dr. Bob

3-Stars on Green Bay at -7 at -120 odds or less, 2-Stars from -7 (-125 or more) to -9 points.

3 Star Selection
GREEN BAY (-7.0) 30 NY Giants 14

New York has played well in winning playoff games at Tampa Bay and at Dallas, but committing zero turnovers in those two wins has certainly helped the Giants' cause. New York is still averaging 1.9 turnovers per game, so don't expect the Giants to continue to play mistake free football, especially given Eli Manning's interception history (20 interceptions this season and 55 the last 3 years). New York's offense is just 0.1 yards per play better than average this season (5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team) and they've averaged more than 5.4 yppl only twice in their last 12 games (and neither playoff game). Green Bay's defense is only 0.1 yppl better than average, so neither team has an advantage when the Giants have the ball.

New York's defense has played very well in recent weeks, and for most of the season after a bad start, and I rate the Giants' stop unit at 0.7 yppl better than average after excluding their horrible game 1 effort against Dallas (8.8 yppl allowed). Green Bay's offense, however, is considerably better than that. The Packers are 1.0 yppl better than average offensively for the season (6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team), but that unit went to another level when Ryan Grant emerged at running back. Grant barely played in Green Bay's first 6 games, but injuries forced Grant into the lineup in week 8 and a superstar has emerged. Grant has gained 1130 rushing yards in 11 games since becoming the featured back and he's averaged a very impressive 5.4 ypr in those games. Grant overcame two early fumbles last week, which staked Seattle to a 14-0 lead, to rush for 201 yards on just 27 rushes and the Packers' offense rates at 1.3 yppl better than average with Grant at running back (and also adjusting Favre's passing numbers for games in which big play WR Greg Jennings played - he missed 3 games). New York's pass rush is a big part of what makes them a good defense (they average 3.1 sacks) but Brett Favre is very good at getting rid of the ball on time, and avoiding sacks when he needs more time, and he was sacked just 16 times in 17 games and only once in week 2 against the Giants. Favre averaged 7.3 yards per pass play despite not having big play receiver Greg Jennings available and he should have another good game today against a questionable and banged up Giants' secondary. Green Bay racked up 370 yards at 5.6 yppl and scored 35 points in a victory at New York against the Giants in week 2 without Grant (GB ran for just 85 yards at 3.1 ypr in that game) and my math model projects 5.9 yppl for the Packers in this game. That number could be higher if cornerback Sam Madison misses another game and if CB Aaron Ross re-injures his dislocated shoulder, but I made no adjustments for New York's ailing secondary.

My math model favors Green Bay by 7 points with a total of 44 points, which is where the line on this game opened. While there is no line value, there is reason to play the Packers here. It is awfully tough for teams to play 3 consecutive road games and even tougher to play well in 3 straight road games. Road teams are only 42.6% ATS if they were also on the road in their previous two games (since 1980) and that record drops to just 34-64-1 ATS if the team is coming off a win in their last game, including 30-62-1 ATS when not getting at least 10 points (8-22-1 ATS in playoff games). Green Bay applies to a 17-2 ATS Championship Game situation that is 15-1 ATS for teams not favored by more than 10 points. Home teams have won by 10 points or more exactly 50% of the 74 Conference Championship games over the years, while the median pointspread has the home team favored by only 4 1/2 points. Championship games are often blowouts and even big favorites tend to cover the spread if they win the game, so laying the points is not as much of a risk in Championship games. In fact, the team that wins straight up in a conference Championship game is an incredible 64-0-2 ATS when not favored by more than 10 points, including 11-0 ATS for teams favored from 7 1/2 to 10 points. Now there is no guarantee that the Packers are going to win this game, but it sure is the most likely outcome and it is also very likely that they will cover the spread if they do win the game. The fair line on this game is Green Bay by 7 points, but giving up a couple of points of line value if necessary isn't as much of a risk in a Conference Championship game, especially since 8 and 9 are such rare numbers to land on. I'll take Green Bay in a 3-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less (at -120 odds or less) and for 2-Stars from -7 (-125 or more) to -9 points.

My math model predicts 44 points in this game, which is also where the total opened, and the cold weather certainly didn't negatively affect the scoring in last week's game in Green Bay. So, I also lean with the Over in this game given the line value.

NEW ENGLAND (-13.5) 30 San Diego 16

San Diego is a different team now than they were when they visited Foxboro in September and came away with a 14-38 loss, but the odds are against them to stay close in this game. San Diego was transformed defensively starting with their week game against Indianapolis, when All-Pro Antonio Cromartie joined the starting lineup. Cromartie had a great season and the Chargers pass defense went from average to very good with Cromartie playing full time. San Diego's run defense also go stronger and the Chargers have allowed just 4.7 yards per play in 10 games with Cromartie in the starting lineup, against teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team. Peyton Manning had a good game last week and the Colts racked up 446 total yards at 6.8 yppl, but Manning also suffered two interceptions on deflected passes. New England's offense is among the best in history, averaging 36.5 points per game at 6.4 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average attack) and Tom Brady was nearly perfect last week in slicing up Jacksonville's defense. San Diego certainly will provide a stiffer test than the Jaguars did last week but Brady has a history of playing error free football in the post-season, so the Chargers are not likely to match their average of 2.9 forced turnovers per game.

San Diego's offense is the big question mark in this game, as their top 3 players - QB Philip Rivers, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, and TE Antonio Gates - are all injured. Rivers hasn't practiced all week (through Thursday) but says he expects to play on his injured knee. Tomlinson sat out the second half of last week's win against the Colts but is listed as probable and Gates played at noticeably less than 100% last week with his sprained toe and will probably be about the same this week. The good news for Chargers' fans is that there isn't much drop off from Rivers to capable backup Billy Volek and backup running backs Michael Turner and Darrin Sproles are also more than capable replacements for Tomlinson if he can't play. Rivers was as good as I've ever seen him last week, completing 14 of 19 passes for 264 yards, but San Diego's offense is still just 0.2 yppl better than average for the season (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl), so it's unlikely that Rivers' great play in the post-season will continue. The Patriots are only 0.2 yppl better than average defensively (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defensive team), so the Chargers should still move the ball at a decent rate.

Overall, my math model favors New England by only 10 1/2 points but the Patriots apply to a 46-17 ATS playoff situation and a 17-2 ATS playoff situation. Favorites of more than 10 points are only 3-6 ATS in Conference Championship game history, but both the situations favoring the Pats are 2-1 ATS when applying to favorites of more than 10 points in championship games. New England is also 38-17-3 ATS with Tom Brady at quarterback in home games when not favored by 20 points or more, including 4-2-1 ATS in the playoffs (although that trend failed last week). This is a tough game to call with the line value favoring San Diego and the situational analysis favoring New England, so I suggest passing on this game - although I'd lean very slightly with the Pats at -13 1/2 or less if I were forced to make a play (but, you're not forced to make a play).

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Burns

Pers Fav Patriots

Playoff TOY Under NYG/GB

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Brandon Lang

SUNDAY

40 Dime - PACKERS (Do not get beat by the hook in this game. If your bookmaker has a 7-1/2 posted on this game, I am telling you must purchase the 1/2-point off this number and lay only -7 points.

10 Dime - OVER Packers/Giants

5 Dime - OREGON

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Special K Comp

WASHINGTON STATE-7 1/2


Marc Lawrence

NFL System Play

Super Letdown: Play against any playoff team who knocked the defending Super Bowl champions out of this year?s playoffs.

Pointspread Record since 1980: 8-2 ATS (80%)

This week's application: New England Patriots


Larry Ness Sportsline

NFL System Play

Playoff Road Weary: Any NFL playoff team coming off a straight up road win,
now facing a third consecutive road game.

Pointspread Record Since 1983: 22-10 (68.8%)

This week's application: Green Bay Packers

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Big Al

New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers

Play: Under

At 6:30 pm, on Sunday, our complimentary selection is on the 'under' in the Green Bay/New York Giants game. Last week, the Packers spotted Seattle a 14-0 lead, and then roared back to defeat the Seahawks 42-20. But after scoring 42 points, we'll look for a MUCH lower game at Lambeau Field on Sunday, as teams have gone 'under' the total 18 of the last 25 games, if they scored 37+ points in a playoff win their previous game. Take the 'under'

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Point Train

6-UNIT CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP BEST BET

GREEN BAY PACKERS (-7) over New York Giants

Rating: 6 units

GREEN BAY (-) over New York at 6:30 pm EST The Packers could not have received better fortune than Dallas completely choking against New York last week. The Giants win enabled Green Bay to host the NFC Championship in front of a raucous home crowd in favorable weather conditions, at least for the Packers. Not only did the Cowboys losing last week end their season, it also gave Green Bay an easy path to the Super Bowl. The home-field advantage that Green Bay possesses has always been considered one of the best in the NFL. The Packers have nothing to dispel that belief this season. They are 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS at Lambeau Field for the season and have led almost every minute of every game at home. Green Bay’s home-field dominance has only grown as the weather has chilled. Since losing to Chicago in Week 5, the Packers have won their last six home games by 20.8 ppg, with five of those six wins coming by two or more touchdowns. For all of the progress New York QB Eli Manning has made this year, he’s just up against too much in this game. He has admitted to hating playing in cold weather and this game will be just about as cold as gets. Manning has come nowhere near playing in a game of this magnitude in these conditions and he will fail miserably in his first attempt. This game could very well play out similarly to Green Bay’s 42-20 win over Seattle last week. The Packers, behind the running of RB Ryan Grant the passing of QB Brett Favre, will have little trouble moving the ball in this game. Grant has averaged 105.2 rushing ypg since taking over the starting role, averaging 6.2 ypc in those games. And no quarterback has more experience in cold weather than Brett Favre. Additionally, the Giants defense is built a lot like Seattle’s in that it relies heavily on its pass rush. Poor footing will make rushing the passer much more difficult for New York, allowing Green Bay to go up and down the field. The Packers are clearly the better team in this game and they have all the advantages on their side. This game has double-figure win written all over it. Ride with Green Bay.

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CTO

*WASHINGTON STATE over Oregon...Payback definitely on Wazzu's mind after Cougs were swept by UO last season. Although Ducks still dangerous, they've proven more vulnerable in '07-08 without graduated do-everything PG Brooks, as opponents having more success taking Ernie Kent's bunch out of its rhythm, especially on road, where Ducks have lost 4 of last 6 thru Jan. 16. Prefer WSU's balance, with crackling backcourt play featuring sr. PG Low & slashing 6-7 swingman Weaver now complemented by bruising post presence of 6-11 jr. Baynes, forcing opponents to pay attention in paint.

*WASHINGTON STATE 72 - Oregon 55 RATING - 10

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James Patrick Sports NFL Playoff Game of the Year is Golden

Chargers vs. Patriots 3:00 p.m. est. (AFC Championship Game)

A lot of things have changed since the Patriots beat San Diego in week two of the regular season. San Diego has been hit with some crucial injuries to their key offensive players and that isn't a very promising outlook heading into Foxboro to play the undefeated Patriots for the right to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. QB Phillip Rivers, RB LaDanian Tomlinson and TE Antonio Gates, the top offensive weapons for Norv Turner's team, are all ailing. It's going to take more than the Chargers will offer to take out New England at home in Foxboro. Did you know that teams that beat the defending Super Bowl Champions are just 2-8 ATS ? Last week San Diego 28 Indianapolis 24. Considering the fact that New England never punted until the final half minute against a sound Jacksonville Jaguar team last weekend and Brady was 26 for 28 passing, We expect the Patriots to blow away the huge point spread here and make a statement heading into the Super Bowl as an Undefeated AFC Champion.

5* Pot of Gold New England Patriots


College Hoop Action

Penn State vs. Indiana
Without Gerry Claxton you can just about put a fork in the Nittany Lions for this promising season. The heart & soul of Penn State went down with a knee injury for the season and the scoring, defense and rebounding absence will be greatly missed. The Hoosiers take no prisoners at Assembly Hall and today they have a victim that is prime for the taking.

3* Indiana Hoosiers


Oregon vs.Washington State
The Ducks have dropped four of six on the road of late and the Cougars are ready for battle as Oregon swept Washington State last season. Beasley Coliseum and the main ingredients back from a 26 win season a year ago put us on Wassou in this game.

3* Washington State Cougars

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