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Saturday Service Plays
Re: Saturday Service Plays
1-Unit Play. Take #721 Florida International (+19.5) over Purdue (Noon, Saturday, Dec. 29)
Purdue is just a bit spotty. Sure, they could win this one by 20. But the odds are severely against it. They have lost to Wofford and Iowa State and barely beat Lipscomb. I’m just not sure I want to lay that many points with a Boilers club that is on such a roller coaster.
6.5-Unit Play. Take #820 UNC-Wilmington (-4.5) over UNC-Greensboro (7 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
Note: This is our Game of the Week.
Here we have a great number on a intrastate rivalry game. UNC-Wilmington has some revenge for a loss last year at UNC-G and they are simply a much, much better team from a much, much better conference. Greensboro lost all five starters from last year’s team, is 0-4 ATS against teams from the CAA, and are 17-36 ATS after an ATS win. Wilmington is undefeated at home and are 23-8 ATS as a small home favorite. I think they lay a big number on the Spartans today and cash this one for us.
4.5-Unit Play. Texas Christian (-6) over Rice (3 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
TCU beat Rice by 27 points in November. That’s right: 27 points. Rice is an absolute horror of a basketball team: shooting 37 percent from the field and 29 percent from 3-point land. They’re awful. TCU is at least a competent basketball team, and they should cover this game with room to spare. We saw a similar situation this week with New Mexico at Hawaii as a 5-point favorite after hammering the Warriors by 29 earlier in the season. Even with all of the peripheral factors in that one the better team – the Lobos – still managed an easy cover. I think we have a similar situation here. Rice is 7-19-1 ATS in its last 27 nonconference games and 1-7 ATS overall.
3.5-Unit Play. Take #778 Wichita State (-2) over Drake (8 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
I think people underestimate how much home court means in The Valley. Home teams won nealry 75 percent of all conference games through last year and I think this number is short by about four points. I've dogged WSU for most of the year but their recent play at home has been encouraging. The home team has won five of six in this series and we are backing the best player on the court (P.J. Couisnard).
3-Unit Play. Take #823 Austin Peay (-2) over Middle Tennessee State (8 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
I think that the Governors are a much, much better team here and I think they are more than capable of snagging a road win in this mini-rivalry. To this point, AP has won the games it should have won and lost the ones it should have lost. This is one they should win, and they will.
3-Unit Play. Take #733 Louisiana-Monroe (+20.5) over Arkansas (3 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
UL-M has a load of experience and are matched up against a team that lost – at home – to Appalachian State last week. They couldn’t cover against Wofford – one of the weakest teams in the nation – as a 23-point favorite this year. I don’t see them blowing out one of the Sun Belt favorites this season by 25 or 30. Arkansas is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 and the SEC continues to be the most overvalued conference in the country. UL-M covered against Michigan State, hung around with Ole Miss for 30 minutes, and beat Iowa on the road. I think they can test a shaky Razorbacks team.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #781 Miami, OH (-3) over Cincinnati (8 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
Going to the well here. The Redhawks have played the toughest schedule in the country to this point and are still 6-3 ATS. After an absolutely dreadful performance against Kansas I think they bounce back with a strong effort in this intrastate rivalry game. Cincinnati is 2-8-1 ATS at home and Miami is 7-1 ATS versus the Big East, 11-3 ATS in their L14, and 8-2 ATS on the road.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #741 Depaul (-2.5) over Detroit (4 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
Short number here in a game featuring a large talent disparity. The Demons lost to Vanderbilt, but were good enough to be in that game. I think Detroit's style plays right into Depaul's strength and that we are getting a bargain on this number.
2-Unit Play. Take #731 Washington (+5) over LSU (3 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
Man, here we have dumb and dumber. These are two of the shakiest, most reliably awful, pathetic teams from major conferences. So why even bother with this game? Because it’s a situation where neither team should be favored. LSU barely held off Oregon State last week and the Huskies are a much better squad than the Beavers. My favorite of all of the ugly ATS numbers here is that LSU is 1-8-1 at home, 0-5 against the Pac-10, 3-18-1 on Saturdays, and 3-13 ATS at home against a team with a losing road record.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #745 Fresno State (+21) over Stanford (5 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
I think Stanford is still a bit overrated after reacquiring the Twin Towers. Fresno State has been a decent performer this year and I just am not sure that the Cardinal will score enough to hang a 25- or 30-point beating on the Bulldogs, a squad that is used to matching up against top-notch competition.
1.5-Unit Play. Take # UC-Santa Barbara (-7) over Eastern Washington (10 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
Here we have one of the best teams on the West Coast matched up against one of the worst. The Gauchos lost to a much better EW team by one point last year. I’m thinking revenge, and I’m thinking that UCSB makes up for that poor performance at UNC last week by laying a beating down.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #739 Tennessee (+1.5) over Gonzaga (4 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
The number on this game is diving, and for good reason. Tennessee is an exceptional club that proved last week they can go into a hostile environment and steal a win. Gonzaga gets lax at times and while they are a very, very talented team they are not elite. I'm looking for a big, big game out of Chris Lofton today.
1-Unit Play. Take #775 Illinois State (+7) over Creighton (8 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
I like the Redbirds this year. They are my MVC sleeper. I think they sneak in under this number after giving the Bluejays a scare.
1-Unit Play. Take #796 Rhode Island (-9) over Georgia Southern (6 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
The Rams have been wrecking people. Time to go to the well.
1-Unit Play. Take Northern Iowa (+5.5) over Bradley (3 p.m., Saturday, Dec. 29)
It looks like Daniel Ruffin either won't play or certainly may not be 100 percent because of his strained abs. Bradley isn't the same team without their leading scorer and assist man.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
The Real Animal
Pick title: 1* Central Florida -3
Mississippi State in a bowl game? Trust me, I’m as surprised as you are. Sure the Bulldogs were 7-5 thanks to wins over Tulane, Gardner Webb, UAB, and Ole Miss. This is their first bowl appearance since 2000, but I still have to wonder what kind of prize is it to travel from Starkville to Memphis. I’m passing this one on the premium service because it looks strange to me to see a Conference USA team favored over an SEC team. But UCF has a combination I really like: An experienced senior quarterback and the most prolific running back in the country. The Central Florida program has really prospered in recent years but they haven’t achieved the crowning jewel of a bowl victory yet. In 2005, they barely lost to Nevada in overtime 49-48. I know it was two months ago, but UCF allowing 52 at East Carolina and 64 at South Florida still has me somewhat hesitant about laying points with the Knights in SEC territory. Mississippi State upset Auburn, Kentucky, and Alabama. Still, one has to figure Kevin Smith has a chip on his shoulder. How does a guy who ran for 2,448 yards and score 29 touchdowns not be a finalist for any of the post-season awards? Mississippi State is 1-5 SU and ATS against other bowl teams that own a winning percentage of .666 or higher. Plus they only statistically beat four opponents in 12 games this year. UCF has won seven straight games and appear to be peaking after a 3-3 start. I’m not thrilled with this one whatsoever
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Marco D'Angelo | CBB Sides Triple-Dime Bet
736 Bradley -4.5 vs 735 Northern Iowa
Analysis: Off Back to Back losses expect a huge effort today in this Missouri Valley Conference Opener from Bradley. Vegas has over adjusted this line off of recent scores. Bradley Wins this by 10-13 Points. TAKE BRADLEY as MARCO'S 7* BASKETBALL HIGH ROLLER RELEASE and make them a TRIPLE DIME PLAY
Sat, 12/29/07 - 8:00 PMMarco D'Angelo | CBB Sides Double-Dime Bet
778 Wichita St -2.5 vs 777 Drake
Analysis: Here's another Game where we are getting great line value as Drake has won 8 in a row so Vegas has made this a Pick the Winner Contest. Wichita St at home in their Conference Opener is the way to go especially at this soft number. I have Wichita St. winning by 7-9 Points. TAKE WICHITA ST as and make them a DOUBLE DIME PLAY
Re: Saturday Service Plays
daily free pick
NBA Clev +4
5* NCAAF Miss St +3
5* NcAAF Wake -2
5* NCAAF Penn St -6
2* NCAAF Wake under 46.5
4* NCAAF Penn St under 52
3* NFL Pats -13
5* NFL Pats 1st half over 24
4* NCAAB Ark LR -3
2* NCAAB Pitt -3
5* NCAAB Arizona +9
He has 3 Dog ML of the day
NBA Cavs +160
NCAAB Oklahoma +250
Boxing Cunningham +270
Re: Saturday Service Plays
3 Units - New England/NYG Over 46 ½
3 Units - Wake Forest -2 ½
2 Units - Mississippi St +3
1 Units - Penn State -5 ½
4 Units - Atlanta Hawks +9
2 Units - Detroit Pistons -4 ½
2 Units - New Orleans Hornets -4
2 Units - Boston Celtics -4 ½
5 Units - Philadelphia Flyers
5 Units - Colorado Avalanche
5 Units - Dallas Stars
3 Units - Edmonton Oilers +1 ½
2 Units - Gonzaga -1 ½
2 Units - Oklahoma +7 ½
1 Units - La Salle +18
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Sat, 12/29/07 - 4:00 PMThree2Won | CBB Sides Single-Dime Bet
739 Tennessee 1.5 (-110) BetUS vs 740 Gonzaga
This line is a mask.
They see Washington, and think home court for Gonzo. This is not home court.
They think travel and distance.......The Vols are rested.
They think Heytveldt and think production, but he had 5 points in his first game back, and he's now facing one of the most difficult full-court teams in the country. He will not be conditioned to handle this.
Matt Bouldin is coming off injury as well?
I like a system that doesn't even consider Mr. Prince.
Let's grab the points!
I understand if people believe that Gonzaga has a good team, because I believe they do, but two of their best players are coming off injuries, and the slowness and fatigue showed against Oklahoma.
It was nothing unusual to see Oklahoma beating up on Gonzaga. The Bulldogs are 1-4 over their last 5 games VS ranked opponents. So they are not as great as people thing in the big games.
And consider this:
Tennessee beat West Virginia (at WVU), which is playing Oklahoma today.WVU is a 7 point favorite. HMMM?
This shows a little bit of deviation between lines. Oklahoma controlled Gonzaga and won, and now they are BIG underdogs to a team that Tennessee beat on the road?
Tennessee is a strong road team. The PRESS travels well.
Again: There is no disrespect to Gonzaga here, but they are facing a team that makes a living off the press. Their turnover rate is unbelievable, and nobody has been able to stop them in transition.
So now we have a gimpy Matt Bouldin, and an out of shape druggie (Heytveldt) running back and forth (Surgery in November on the foot).
Im sorry if I cant see the reason for the dog spot here, but here is a tout that makes the squarest write-up of the day list. I guess this is why we are dogs:
1 Unit on Gonzaga -1 I like the Zags in their neck of the woods at Key Arena. The Vols are just 13-31 ATS in all neutral court games since 1997, 2-10 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 3 points or less or pick since 1997, and 1-8 ATS in road games after 3 consecutive non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. The Zags are 22-8 ATS as a neutral court underdog or pick since 1997 and 13-2 ATS on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
I cannot stand services that spit out data that is 10 years old. This is the most misleading crap available, and its a lazy and unsophisticated way to promote information.
And Key Arena is not in Gonzagas neck of the woods!
Key Arena is in Seattle.
Gonzaga is in on the freaking Idaho border!
Its almost like saying Gainsville Florida is in Tennessees neck of the woods!
I digress: Tennessee is a good bet as the underdog
Sat, 12/29/07 - 1:00 PMThree2Won | CFB Side Single-Dime Bet
414 Wake Forest -2.0 (-110) BetUS vs 413 Connecticut
Wake Forest -2
I apologize for the lack of a write-up here....you deserve to get all the facts presented to you, but I am covered up on a busy capping day, and it takes a bunch of time to reasearch, and then write the analysis.
This is simply a situtation where Wake is a more rounded out, dynamic, and battle hardened team, playing close to home. I'm in Charlotte right now, and there are a load of Wake fans here. I don't hang anything on home field advantage in these bowl games, but they will have a quiet crowd during key downs.
I love getting anything under 3 points.
Our defense is better, our offense is actually better, and far more complex than anything UCONN has seen outside of last years 11 point loss to Wake, and their spanking from WVU.
I like our chances in this game.
Sat, 12/29/07 - 1:05 PMThree2Won | NBA Total Single-Dime Bet
702 DAL / 701 ATL Over 189.0 BetUS
Dallas OVER 189
If youre new to my plays, then you would have missed the fact that I found the reason why Atlantas point production has increased.
They stopped launching 23 3-pointers and started limiting the low percentage shots. Missed shots lead to no points and wasted time. They lead to unders. Atlanta had a tendency to seek the perimeter and I believe it hurt them.
They are going inside now.
Part of this was because they are injured on the perimeter, so we get to see Joe Johnson driving and harassing people underneath the ARC. This has led to more fouls, more high percentage shots, and increased assist production.
All of this translates to points.
Its also why you see all of these 100+ games from the Hawks (Who average 94.4)
Their lowest output in the last 4 games was 97 points.
They scored OVER 107 in 3 of those games.
There is a philosophical shift occurring, so I think they can help us get over the number today.
Dallas is a bit wobbly, but they may come out hard, since Atlanta beat them already this year. The final score was 101-94, and Dallas was short handed in that game.
I believe we will see a strong effort out of Dallas, and I suppose thats where we will live or die in this wager. Dallas must produce. The odds-makers are seeing Atlantas PERCIEVED defense (94.4), but that has begun to shift as well.
I think Dallas can get us to 100 points today.
Now heres the clicker, and the reason why I like the OVER:
I think we can get 50 personal fouls today, maybe 60 if were lucky.
The referees in this game are not overwhelming OVER guys, but they are all sitting around 199 points per game on average.
Theres a reason for that with two of these Refs:
Jack Nies is notorious for calling back-to-back-to-back Technical fouls. He is a ticky-tack guy, so I think his number is actually justified. He likes to see guys on the line.
James Capers is best known for his phantom fouls.
Id like to this pick with more analysis, but time is pressing.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Alex Smart NCAA Liberty Bowl Opinion (1 Unit) Mississippi State Bulldogs +3 and Alamo Bowl Opinion (1 Unit) Texas A&M Aggies +6
ATS Football Lock Club NCAA Meineke Bowl Regular Play (4 Units) Wake Forest Demon Deacons -1.5 and Saturday NFL Regular Play (3 Units) New England Patriots -13
Ben Burns' Consulting NCAA Meineke Bowl Top Rated Plays (Ben Burns' Personal Favorite) Wake Forest Demon Deacons and (Ben Burns' Total Annihilator) Wake Forest/Connecticut Under, Liberty Bowl Top Rated Play (Ben Burns' Liberty Bowl Blowout) Mississippi State Bulldogs and Saturday NFL Top Rated Play (Ben Burns' Saturday Night Pro Football Total of the Year) NY Giants/New England Under
Big Al McMordie Saturday NFL Special (Big Al's NFL TV Game of the Year) New York Giants
Bill Hilton's Gameday Sports NCAA Liberty Bowl Regular Play (3*) Mississippi State Bulldogs and Alamo Bowl Regular Play (2*) Texas A&M Aggies
Blazer NCAA Liberty Bowl Regular Play (3*) Mississippi State Bulldogs and Alamo Bowl Regular Play (3*) Penn State Nittany Lions, Saturday NFL Regular Play (3*) New York Giants
Bob Balfe's Sunday Selections NCAA Meineke Bowl Regular Play Wake Forest Demon Deacons -2.5, Liberty Bowl Regular Play Central Florida Golden Knights -3 and Alamo Bowl Regular Play Texas A&M Aggies +5.5
Brandon Lang NCAA Meineke Bowl Top Rated Play (25 Dimes) Wake Forest Demon Decons and Alamo Bowl Regular Play (5 Dimes) Penn State Nittany Lions, Saturday NFL Regular Play (10 Dimes) New England Patriots
Dave Cokin NCAA Meineke Bowl Top Rated Play (System Play) Connecticut Huskies, Liberty Bowl Top Rated Play (Solid Gold) Mississippi State Bulldogs and Alamo Bowl Top Rated Play (Under the Hat) Penn State Nittany Lions, Saturday NFL Top Rated Play (Solid Gold) New England Patriots
Doc Enterprises NCAA Liberty Bowl Top Rated Play (5*) Mississippi State Bulldogs and Meineke Bowl Regular Play (4*) Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Ethan Law NCAA Alamo Bowl Regular Play (1 Unit) Penn State Nittany Lions
Fast Eddie Sports Saturday NCAA Liberty Bowl Regular Play (10*) Central Florida Golden Knights and Saturday NFL Regular Play (10*) New England Patriots
Frank Rosenthal NCAA Meineke Bowl Regular Plays (SB+) Wake Forest/Connecticut Under 47.5 and (SB) Wake Forest Demon Deacons -1, Liberty Bowl Regular Plays (SB) Central Florida Golden Knights -2.5 and (SB) Mississippi State/Central Florida Under 56, Alamo Bowl Regular Plays (SB) Texas A&M Aggies +5.5 and (SB) Penn State/Texas A&M Under 52.5, Saturday NFL Regular Plays (SB+) New York Giants +14 and (SB+) New England/NY Giants Over 46
Guaranteed Sports NCAA Meineke Bowl Top Rated Play (4*) Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Jim Feist NCAA Alamo Bowl Special (Jim Feist's College Bowl Game of the Year) Penn State Nittany Lions
Jim Kruger NCAA Meineke Bowl Regular Play (3*) Wake Forest/Connecticut Under 48
Joe Gavazzi's Private Players of Pittsburgh NCAA Meineke Bowl Regular Plays (3%) Connecticut Huskies and (3%) Wake Forest/Connecticut Under, Liberty Bowl Primetime Opinion (2%) Central Florida Golden Knights and Alamo Bowl Regular Play (3%) Penn State Nittany Lions, Saturday NFL Primetime Opinions (1%) New York Giants and (1%) New England/NY Giants Under
Kelso Sturgeon NCAA Liberty Bowl Top Rated Play (10 Units) Central Florida Golden Knights -3, Alamo Bowl Top Rated Play (10 Units) Texas A&M Aggies +5 and Bowl Parlay (10 Units 2 Teamer) Texas A&M Aggies + Central Florida Golden Knights, Saturday NFL Regular Plays (5 Units) New England Patriots -13.5, (5 Units) New England/NY Giants Under 46.5 and (5 Unit 2 Team Parlay) New England/NY Giants Under 46.5 + New England Patriots -13.5
Larry Ness NCAA Alamo Bowl Special (Larry Ness' 24* Legend Play) Penn State Nittany Lions
Lem Banker NCAA Liberty Bowl Regular Play Mississippi State Bulldogs and Alamo Bowl Regular Play Texas A&M Aggies
Lenny Stevens NCAA Meineke Bowl Regular Play (10*) Connecticut Huskies, Liberty Bowl Regular Play (10*) Central Florida Golden Knights and Alamo Bowl Regular Play (10*) Penn State Nittany Lions
LT Profits NCAA Liberty Bowl Regular Play (2*) Mississippi State Bulldogs and Saturday NFL Regular Play (2*) NY Giants/New England Under
LV Sports NCAA Meineke Bowl Regular Play (10*) Wake Forest Demon Deacons and Alamo Bowl Regular Play (10*) Texas A&M Aggies
Michael Cannon NCAA Liberty Bowl Top Rated Play (40 Dimes) Mississippi State Bulldogs and Alamo Bowl Regular Play (10 Dimes) Penn State Nittany Lions
Mike Rose NCAA Meineke Bowl Regular Play Connecticut/Wake Forest Over 48, Liberty Bowl Regular Play Mississippi State/Central Florida Over 55.5, Alamo Bowl Regular Plays Penn State Nittany Lions -5.5 and Penn State/Texas A&M Under 51.5, Saturday NFL Regular Play New York Giants +14
Northcoast Sports NCAA Liberty Bowl Top Rated Play (4*) Mississippi State Bulldogs +3 and Regular Opinion (1*) Mississippi State/Central Florida Under 54.5, Meineke Bowl Top Opinion (2*) Wake Forest Demon Deacons -2 and Regular Opinion (1*) Wake Forest/Connecticut Under 46.5, Alamo Bowl Top Opinions (2*) Penn State Nittany Lions -5 and (2*) Penn State/Texas A&M Under 52, Saturday NCAA Top Opinion (2* Marquee Private Play Hotline) New England/NY Giants Under 46.5
Pointwise Late Telephone Service NCAA Meineke Bowl Regular Play (3*) Wake Forest Demon Deacons
R&R Totals NCAA Liberty Bowl Top Rated Play Central Florida/Mississippi State Under
Rocketman Sports NCAA Meineke Bowl Opinion (1*) Connecticut Huskies, Liberty Bowl Opinion (1*) Central Florida Golden Knights and Alamo Bowl Opinion (1*) Penn State Nittany Lions
Scott Spreitzer NCAA Liberty Bowl Special (Scott Spreitzer's College Bowl Shocker Game of the Year) Mississippi State Bulldogs, Meineke Bowl Top Rated Play (Scott Spreitzer's Main Event) Wake Forest Demon Deacons and Alamo Bowl Top Rated Play (Scott Spreitzer's College Bowl Insider) Penn State Nittany Lions, Saturday NFL Top Rated Play (Scott Spreitzer's Saturday Night Pro Football TKO December Game of the Month) New York Giants
Sebastian Sports NCAA Liberty Bowl Special (50*) Mississippi State Bulldogs, Meineke Bowl Top Rated Play (20*) Wake Forest Demon Deacons and Alamo Bowl Top Rated Play (20*) Penn State Nittany Lions, Saturday NFL Top Rated Play (20*) New England/NY Giants Under
Spylock NCAA Meineke Bowl Regular Play (3 Units) Connecticut Huskies
The Gold Sheet Late Telephone Service NCAA Meineke Bowl Regular Play (1 Unit) Wake Forest Demon Deacons
The Real Animal NCAA Meineke Bowl Top Rated Plays (4*) Wake Forest Demon Deacons -2 and (4*) Wake Forest/Connecticut Under 47
The Underdog NCAA Meineke Bowl Top Rated Play Connecticut Huskies
Total Insights NCAA Meineke Bowl Regular Play (1*) Wake Forest/Connecticut Under
VIP Lock Club NCAA Liberty Bowl Top Rated Play (500%) Mississippi State Bulldogs
VSSWins.com Saturday NCAA Alamo Bowl Top Rated Play (6%) Texas A&M Aggies +6/-120, Sunday NCAA Independence Bowl Top Rated Play (6%) Colorado Buffaloes +4/-115 and 2008 BCS National Title Game Special (7.5% College Bowl Game of the Year) Ohio State Buckeyes +5/-125, Saturday NCAA College Basketball Top Rated Play (6%) Texas Longhorns -7/-115, (6%) Arkansas Little Rock Trojans -3/-125, (6%) TCU Horned Frogs -5/-120, (6%) BYU Cougars -4/-115, (4%) Memphis Tigers -8/-120, (6%) Illinois State Redbirds +7/-115, (6%) Wichita State Shockers -1/-130, (6%) Alabama Crimson Tide -12/-115, (6%) DePaul Blue Demons -1/-125 and (6%) Dayton Flyers +4/-125 (More Throughout the Day)
Wayne Root NCAA Meineke Bowl Top Rated Play (Millionaire) Connecticut Huskies and Alamo Bowl Top Rated Play (Money Maker) Texas A&M Aggies, Saturday NFL Top Rated Play (Chairman) New England Patriots
Winners Margin NCAA Meineke Bowl Regular Play (5*) Connecticut Huskies and Alamo Bowl Regular Play (5*) Penn State Nittany Lions
Winners Path NCAA Alamo Bowl Top Rated Play Penn State Nittany Lions
Re: Saturday Service Plays
triple-dime bet Mississippi St 3.0 vs UCF
Analysis: NCAAF: Central Florida Golden Knights at Mississippi State Bulldogs - Mississippi State +3 -110 | Unit Value: 3 DIMES
Note: A lot of what I have to say about this game is already in the Total Play writeup so I will be very brief. This line is outrageous and based on the overall records of these two schools. The schedule of Mississippi State has been as least twice as difficult playing in the SEC as they have. Actually, the only two schools that the Knights have played that I would consider, quality teams was Texas and South Florida. They did perform well verses the Longhorns and lost a close game. They got pounded by the Bulls. Both of those schools are in the latter half of the top 25. That is it. That is who they have played. Miss State played LSU, Tennessee, Auburn, Arkansas, Alabama, West Virginia, Kentucky, South Carolina, That is 8 Teams that are going Bowling and a who's who of the top 25. You just cannot compare these teams based on record alone and I can promise you, that if the Knights had played the schedule of the Bulldogs this year, they would be getting ready for the Holidays in a totally different way. This game with this very good Miss State D is not going to be a Holiday. They have THE BEST secondary in the SEC. They have a huge defensive line and they have better quality athletes. They are also playing their best ball of the season right now and are truly excited to be in this bowl. I am pretty close to this situation and I could on and on at why the Bulldogs will win this one outright. But I will just stop and say that I will be betting this one moneyline as well.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
John Ryan's College Bowl 7* GOY on PENN ST
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on Penn State – AiS shows an 86% probability that PSU will win this game by 6 or more points. PSU QB Morelli possess an extremely strong arm and with all fo the rest leading up to this game will be in fine condition. OC Galen Hall (yes, the same guy, who coached the Cowboys) will expand the offense to exploit all of the severe weaknesses in the Texas A&M defense. The Aggies rank 100th in the nation in pass defense. Their CB and safeties are not fast enough to be caught in man coverage. In playing zone, Morelli will have the option to get the ball to their best play maker Derrick Williams. He is an awesome athlete and is extremely dangerous in the open field. PSU has a very deep corp of receivers with three of them having 40+ catches on the season. These 3 are Williams, Butler, and Norwood and all of them have significant advantages in man coverage. PSU will pass to set up the run and that running game can be powerful at times – especially late in the game. Rodney Kinlaw has emerged as a strong power back with 222 carries and a 5.3 YPR average. A&M has two monster defensive players in DT Bryant (6-5, 322) and NT Smith (6-3, 315). They can clog the space for the running game, but they lack the speed and quickness to generate any sort of pass rush against a solid PSU offensive line. In fact, most of the secondary has been hung out to dry with a marginal pass rush at times – even in 3rd and long situations. If Morelli were to ever have his career game – this would have to be the matchup to do it in. AiS also shows a 90% probability that PSU will score 28 or more points in this game. Note that A&M is just 12-40 ATS when they allow 28 or more points since 1992. A&M is off a 38-30 win of Texas in a huge upset and in the game before they lost at Missouri40-28, but covered as a 17 point dog. The fact that both of their last 2 games went over 60 points puts them into an 0-7 ATS role spanning the past 15 years. Take Penn State to roll big.
Re: Saturday Service Plays
1. 300,000* Penn State
2. 50,000* N.Y. Giants
3. 50,000* UAB
1. Penn State- We should be thankful the Aggies knocked off Texas in the regular seasons finale, because that win made this game that much more affordable. Guys, this one comes down to defense - The Lions got it, the Aggies don't. But handicapping college bowls is never that simple, so let me break it down for you:
The biggest problem Texas A&M faces is their own one-dimensional offense against a stout Nittany Lions front 7, led by LBs Dan Connor and Sean Lee, plus DE Maurice Evans (12.5 sacks). All you have to do is watch tape of the Lions last 3 games, where their defense allowed 18 ppg on just 72 rushing yards per contest, and you'll see exactly what I mean. No doubt McGee/Lane/Goodson make up a nasty trio, but down the stretch against ranked teams, they averaged 127 total rushing yards per game on just 3.4 yards per carry. Lions may not be ranked, but their defense is # 6 against the rush on the season.
Offensively, its been an up-and-down year for QB Anthony Morelli, but with the extra time prepare I believe he can and will deliver against a very average Aggies defense. Texas A&M posted a disgusting 21 TD to 7 INT ratio on the season, allowing 264 passing yards per contest! I know a lot of people have knocked Morelli over the course of the season (myself included), but let's recall last year's Outback Bowl, when he completed 14 of 25 passes for 197 and 1 TD. That kind of effort would almost guarantee a win here. Also, look for the RB tandem of Royster (6.1 yards per carry) and Kinlaw (5.1 yards per carry) to take a lot of pressure off the Lions passing attack.
Finally, there's no doubt Joe Paterno knows how to win bowl games, going 20-10-1 SU & 21-9-1 ATS over his career. Compare that to the Aggies interim head coach Darnell, who's 0-1 SUATS, and you've got the making of a huge coaching mismatch. Given time, Joe Pa can dissect any team, and with A&M's obvious deficiencies on defense, look for Penn State to capitalize accordingly. Lions roll!
Take Penn State comfortably over Texas A&M as your top-rated play of the day.
2. N.Y. Giants- Several factors come into play in this one, but none bigger than the fact neither team really has nothing to play for. What about the undefeated season? Well, first of all, Belichek isn't the type of coach to sacrifice a regular season record for a Super Bowl. And second, the Patriots can still win this game, get the record, and fail to cover, which is exactly what I expect will happen.
Make no mistake, as soon as Tom Brady comes out of the game (which he will) this Patriots offense will grind to a halt. Let me give you one perfect example: Do you remember when the Pats were destroying the Dolphins in Miami 42-7 in the third quarter, when backup Matt Cassell came into the game and promptly threw a pick-6 and got yanked by Belichek faster than the beads of sweat could form on his forehead?! Well, I do, and the backdoor remains wide open as long as Brady isn't on the field.
Even when he's on the field, the Giants do have one big edge, and that's their pass rush, which was posted 52 sacks this season. Granted, Belichek isn't stupid and will try to account for that, but so did a lot of other teams. If the Giants are to have any shot in this game, they'll rely on Strahan/Umenyiora/Tuck to put pressure on Brady.
Finally, while the Giants offense isn't great, they're coming off a confidence- building effort at Buffalo, where they dropped 38 points on the Bills, thanks in large part to their rushing attack of Jones and Bradshaw. Look for them to use that formula once again, slowing down the game, and forcing Brady to watch from the sideline as the clock winds down.
Bottom line, the Giants don't want to be remembered as the team that lost to the Patriots and gave them the 16-0 season. That motivation alone, plus the fact their last home game was fiasco, losing badly to the Redskins, you know the G-men will strap on their hard hats and come to play in this one. Patriots likely win, but covering the number on this contest is another story, especially if the starters are off the field for an extended time.
Take the N.Y. Giants plus the points over the Patriots in Saturday night NFL action.
3. UAB- Love this match up for the Blazers, as they've not only got the revenge angle, losing the Old Dominion last season 56-42, but also, this time around, UAB is a much better team and it'll show tonight.
Looking over both teams, its clear one has regressed (Monarchs) and one has grown (Blazers). Since last season, the once average Monarch offense has taken a step back into mediocrity, scoring just 63 ppg on 42% shooting. With only one player averaging double-figures, this Old Dominion team has no goto player.
While on the other hand, the Blazers are clearly led by Robert Vaden, who has blossomed since coming over from Indiana, averaging almost 20 ppg. Its not only Vaden, but forwards Sharpe and Huffman, who both could lead Old Dominion in scoring, that makes this UAB offense so dynamic. Granted, they won't be confused with any top-tier program yet, but they have all the tools necessary to dominate this match up.
If you think Old Dominion's seasonal stats are bad, you should see their pathetic numbers on the road, where they average just 58 ppg on 41% shooting. They'll be hard-pressed to even reach those numbers against a Blazers defense which is rock-solid at home, allowing 54 ppg on an outstanding 36% shooting (only 23% from 3-point). In the end, UAB gets its redemption and grabs the cash, returning the favor with a lopsided win and cover tonight against Old Dominion.
Take UAB comfortably over Old Dominion in this college hoops match up.
1. 50,000* Central Florida
2. 50,000* Wyoming
1. Central Florida- For those of you who love trends, this play may seem a bit unusual, because everyone knows that the Knights have beaten only 1 SEC
team in school history (1-12 SU & 7-5 ATS). Well boys, make it 2 SEC teams in school history after today's Liberty Bowl and here's why:
First, if you know Central Florida football then you know star RB Kevin Smith, who's rushed for 2549 yards on 5.9 yards per carry, scoring 29 TDs! I don't care what anyone says, but even a team from a power conference like Mississippi State, will have little luck stopping him. The fact that the Bulldogs are already below average against the run can't be ignored, as they allow a whopping 159 rushing yards per game on the season!
Second, while the SEC gets most of the publicity (and deseverdly so) this Bulldogs team isn't your typical SEC team. They're defense is good, but not great, and their offense a joke, averaging 22 ppg on just 305 total yards. You'd think they would be able to score on this Knights defense at will, but the fact of the matter is Central Floridas' stop-unit has played well down the stretch, allowing 21 ppg on just 96 rushing yards over their last 3 games.
Finally, in case you didn't notice, the Knights finished the season winning 7 straight (5-2 ATS), and come into this game playing excellent football on both sides of the ball (averaging 43 ppg over their last 3). Mississippi State definately played the tougher schedule, but sleep on the Knights at your own risk. When the dust settles, Kevin Smith leads the Knights to the bowl win and cover!
Take Central Florida over Mississippi State in this afternoon's Liberty Bowl.
2. Wyoming- So many things wrong with this Wis.-Milwaukee squad its tough to decide were to start. How about the fact their two best players have been kicked off the team for separate disciplinary infractions!
Both G Smith and F Johnson were the heart and soul of this team, and losing both players doomed them to a season of mediocrity. The fact they lost Johnson a little under two weeks ago means this team is still dealing with a shift away from their best player. They were able to win and cover at home against Central Michigan without Johnson, but doing it today on the road is completely different story.
The Cowboys are a different team at home, going 4-0 (1-1 ATS) there this season. Their offense is slightly better, but what we really see is a tremendous increase in intensity on the defensive end. Wyoming allows 11 fewer points (73 to 62) and 10 fewer points in opponents field goal percentage (41% to 31%) when playing at home. I expect similar results this afternoon, as the Panthers offense is in a state of flux without Johnson.
Finally, speaking of defense, don't think the loss of Johnson, the team's leading rebounder (8 board/game), shot blocker (18 blocks), and thief (15 steals), won't be felt on an already struggling Panthers defense. Wis.- Milwaukee is allowing opponents 79 ppg on a ridiculous 51% shooting over their last 5 games, and that includes some really ugly losses on the road (100-65 at Marquette, 91-73 at Illinois-Chicago). More of the same this afternoon, as Wyoming keeps it perfect at home with a solid win and cover in this one.
Take Wyoming BIG over Wis.-Milwaukee in afternoon college hoops action
Re: Saturday Service Plays
Mississippi State +3 over Central Florida
Houston -2' over Toronto
Dayton +4 over Pittsburgh
Boise State +7 over BYU
Wanderlei Silva -135 over Chuck Liddell
Rameau Sokoudjou -115 over Lyoto Machida
Soa Palelei -150 over Eddie Sanchez