Tuesday Service Plays

Tuesday Service Plays

NORTHCOAST

SIGNATURE PLAYS

3* Cleveland Cavaliers

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The Platinum Sheet

PHOENIX at LA LAKERS

I’m not sure why I have this hangup on fading the Lakers this week, but it continues here on Christmas against the Suns. So far in ’07, the Lakers have played well enough to warrant being favored here or at the very least, a very small home underdog. On the road though is where the Suns really “shine”. PHOENIX is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. The average score was PHOENIX 110.1, OPPONENT 104.7 - (Rating = 2*). This is also a nice revenge spot for Mike D’Antoni’s team and PHOENIX is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons. The average score was PHOENIX 107.2, OPPONENT 101.8 - (Rating = 1*). We should see a focused Suns’ team in this holiday game.

Play: Phoenix +1

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The Gold Sheet

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 25

Miami 96 - CLEVELAND 95—Miami has been a solid play when getting more than a handful of points on the road this season, covering 6 of 7 when getting 6 or more points away from home. Cavs have been in a pointspread-cover drought over the last month, covering just 4 of last 12 games through Dec. 22, and Miami gave them all they wanted last season, winning 3 of the 4 meetings. Remember, last year Cleveland was on top of its game. This year, not so much for the 12-15 (through Dec. 21) Cavs. 06-MIA -5' 92-89 (194), CLE -2' 103-79 (193), MIA +3 86-81 (185), Mia +6 94-90 (OT-182)

Phoenix 109 - LA LAKERS 108—There are two ways to look at this one. First that Phoenix is going to be more than a little motivated by the fact that the Suns absorbed their worst defeat of the season on Nov. 2 when the Lakers came to Phoenix and won 119-98. That should be enough to get the juices flowing for Steve Nash, Shawn Marion and Amare Stoudemire. On the other hand, the Lakers are 2-0 this season as a home dog, and they have played very well at Staples Center against the league’s elite teams, logging a 10-5 spread mark facing “A” teams at home in ‘05-06 and ‘06-07. They are also 7-3 vs. the number last 10 games facing Phoenix. 07-La +9 119-98 (216); 06-LA +5’ 114-106 (207), PHO -10 99-94 (220), Pho -4' 115-107 (218), PHO -10 93-85 (220), PHO -10' 95- 87 (211), PHO -9 126-98 (208), LA +4 95-89 (210), Pho -5' 113-100 (207), PHO
-10' 119-110 (210)

PORTLAND 106 - Seattle 90—This is the first meeting between Kevin Durant and the youngsters from Portland (the league’s youngest team). Blazers have won and covered 6 straight at the Rose Garden prior to hosting Denver on Friday, and expect their run of good fortune to continue against a Seattle side that plays little defense most nights, yielding 105 ppg, the third-highest figure in the league. Sonics just don’t get enough out of guard Earl Watson or center Kurt Thomas to pose a serious threat to Portland’s young depth. 06-Port +8' 110-106 (198), SEA -6' 97- 73 (203), Sea +3' 95-77 (196), PORT +1 108-102 (192)

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Pointwise NBA Newletter Selections

TUESDAY, DECEMBER 25

(2:30) Miami Heat 109 - CLEVELAND CAVS 108
(5:00) Phoenix Suns 110 - LA LAKERS 106
(8:05) PORTLAND BLAZERS 99 - Seattle 88

BEST BETS: MIAMI (4), PORTLAND

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Mighty ! Quinn

Lost another one last night
Suns -2 1/2

9 - 26 last 35 plays

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JB Sports

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS -4.5

Mike Rose

Lakers

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Vegas Experts Tip Of The Day

13-9 Month of Dec
7-5 totals
6-4 sides

These teams aren't on National TV often and that's going to mean offense, not defense. Seattle gives up 107 per game on the road and Portland's lit it up and scored 100.6 its last five games. Clubs have gone over the total in five of the last eight meetings. In fact, SEATTLE is 144-100 OVER vs. division opponents since 1996.

Play on: Over

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Yankee Capper

NBA

3 Units - Miami Heat +5

3 Units - LA Lakers +3

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ARTHUR RALPH

Portland Trail Blazers


Sebastian

7* Seattle +7 ½

10* Phoenix -3


Red Zone Sports

Mia Heat


Insider Sports Report

4* Phoenix/L.A. Lakers  OVER 220.5

3* Portland -7.5 over Seattle


Elite Sports Picks

Phoenix/L.A. Lakers  OVER 220.5


Discount Sports Picks

5* L.A. Lakers +2.5 over Phoenix

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Charlies Sports Members Section

Seattle @ Portland over 198 (500* )

Cleveland-4' (30*)

Phoenix-3 (20*)

Phoenix @ Lakers under 220 (20*)

Miami @ Cleveland under 192 (10*)

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Frank Rosenthal

Cavs-4.5

Under 192

Suns-2.5

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MTI Sports

4-Star Miami +5 over CLEVELAND - Cleveland is off a 105-96 home loss to the Warriors. The Cavs were down 38-22 at the end of the first quarter and never once held the lead. The Cavs have been in situations like this before and have came up empty. Cleveland is 0-9 ATS with less than two days rest when they are off a loss in which they never led, failing to cover by an average of 9.9 ppg. After their dismal performance vs the Warriors, the normally affable Lebron James refused to talk to the media. HC Mike Brown have no explanation for the Cavs' poor performance. His job is in jeopardy, yet he has no answers.

The Heat, on the other hand, are off a home win over the Jazz in which they shot 51.9% from the field and made 20-of-23 free throws. This is an excellent PLAY-ON situation - especially if the team is a road dog after such a solid shooting performance. The league as a whole is 11-0 ATS (+7.5 ppg) as a road dog with at least one day of rest after a game in which they shot at least 50% from the field and at least 85% from the free-throw line. After the win over the Jazz, Dwayne Wade said, "It's big. It's big because we'd lost four of our last five games. This is a very good team and this shows the toughness of the team. We can build from here.''

Finally, the Cavs host the Mavs next, a team that beat them 92-74 in their opener this season. Home favorites with non-conference revenge games next are not good investments. In fact, NBA teams are a combined 0-9 ATS as a single-digit home favorite with a non-conference revenge game next, winning only one of the nine games straight up!

Miami has played on each of the last three Christmases and has won all three games. Grab the points and consider a moneyline play on the Heat.

MTI's FORECAST: MIAMI 94 Cleveland 92

4-Star Phoenix at LA Lakers OVER 220' - The Suns are off a 122-103 win over the Raptors in which Steve Nash was 3-of-7 from the field but dished out a whopping 16 of the team's 32 assists. When Steve Nash relieves himself of the scoring burden and allows his teammates to score, the Suns can play some very high-scoring games. Phoenix is a perfect 10-0 OU since November 03, 2006 after a win at home in which Steve Nash took fewer than 10 shots, going over by a staggering 29.4 ppg on the average. This exclusive player-based trend is 3-0 this season, with each game going over by double-digits without the benefit of an overtime. In addition, the Suns are 6-0 OU since December 07, 2006 after a win at home in which Steve Nash had more assists than points, with an average OU margin of an unheard-of +37.9 ppg.

Finally, the Suns are an amazing since December 05, 2001 on the road after a double-digit home win in which they had at least thirty assists, eclipsing the OU line by an average of 29.6 ppg.

LA is off a 95-90 win over the Knicks in which they held NY to 39.5% shooting nd had only 18 assists on 37 baskets. These stats point to a high-scoring game here, as the Lakers are 8-0 OU (+13.9 ppg) as a home dog after a game in which they allowed less than 40% from the field and 7-0 OU (+12.0 ppg) as a home dog after a game in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points lower than their season-to-date average.

The Lakers' player-based trends reveal that LA is 6-0 OU (10.9 ppg) at home after a win on the road in which Derek Fisher shot worse than 33% from the field and 7-0 OU (11.2 ppg) after a win on the road in which Lamar Odom took fewer than 10 shots. The Suns offense will be unstoppable and the Lakers will have to abandon the half-court game in an attempt to keep up. An entertaining affair.

MTI's FORECAST: Phoenix 121 LA LAKERS 115

4-Star Seattle +7 over PORTLAND - This is by far the most points the Blazers have given all season and they most they have given to a rested opponent since the 2004-05 season, when they beat the Hawks 102-101 laying 12. It's a challenge for a team that is used to playing the role of underdog to play as a heavy favorite. The role of underdog is motivating. It is a role from which a team can gain respect. As a favorite, the Blazers will not have this motivation. Portland has been a 4+ point favorite three times this season and is 0-3 ATS and 1-2 SU in those games.

In their last game, the Blazers outscored the Nuggets 30-20 in the fourth quarter to earn a 99-96 win. Now they have three days off after this heroic effort. This can be a very soft spot for teams. In fact, the league is 0-15 ATS with at least three days rest when they are off a win in which they trailed at the end of the third quarter, as long as they weren't getting 8+ points in that come-from-behind win. in addition, the Trailblazers themselves are 0-7 ATS as a home favorite with 3+ days rest, failing to cover by an average of a whopping 15.2 ppg.

Seattle is off a 123-115 win over the Raptors in which they shot 56.0% from the floor and made 19-of-21 free throws. This is an excellent PLAY-ON situation - especially if the team is a road dog after such a solid shooting performance. The league as a whole is 11-0 ATS (+7.5 ppg) as a road dog with at least one day of rest after a game in which they shot at least 50% from the field and at least 85% from the free-throw line.

When a young team is hot, three days off is not what they want. It will cool them off and allow the Sonics to easily stay within this number - and perhaps pull the outright upset. Grab the points.

MTI's FORECAST: PORTLAND 91 Seattle 95

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Sports Gambling Hotline

Seattle at PORTLAND (-8)

Our free play run stands at 30-18 the last 48 days.

Christmas night action from the pacific-northwest, and we have to go with the favored Blazers over the Sonics. Talk about a December to remember, Portland is on a 10-game winning tear, and they have covered in 9 of those 10 games.

Greg Oden...Greg Oden who? Portland is way ahead of schedule, and while this was supposed to be a marquee showdown of Oden and Sonics top draft pick Kevin Durant, it is now a look at a Trailblazers team that is the feel-good story of the NBA these first two months.

Seattle is just 4-10 away from home, and 6-8 against the spread away from the Key Arena. Portland meanwhile sports a 12-3 mark at the Rose Garden, and they have gone 10-5 against the spread at home thus far.

This is the first meeting of the season between the teams, and we will side with the hot host to make it 11 in a row, and 10-1 against the spread.

Play on Portland.

2* PORTLAND

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Larry Ness

Phoenix


Drew Gordon

1. 200,000* Suns
2. 50,000* Sonics

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IndianCowboy

Game: Phoenix Suns @ Los Angeles Lakers

Pick: 3 unit(s) TOTAL: Under 221.5 (-107) (Play of the Day)

2 Plays today - both are free since its Christmas. Happy Holidays to you and yours.Write-up to come shortly.

Lakers/Suns Under 221.5

The Lakers are more of a defensive team than people give them credit for. The Lakers are 2nd in the league in rebounding and top 3 in the league in field goal percentage. Tack that on with the fact that the Suns will look to be more active on the defensive end today as they must if they are going to win the rebound total and not to mention that they gave up 119 points to this team at home last time, makes for a decent under play here. The Suns have played the under of late on the road in their last 4 contests and the Lakers are more of a physical team than people give them credit for as the maturing of Andrew Bynum cannot be understated. The under is also 6-0 in Western Conference Games for the Suns and the under is 6-1 for the Lakers when they play teams with a winning percentage of greater than 60% showing that when bette teams come knocking, this team does play with a bit more defensive intensity.

Suns -1.5 First Half

(Additional Play (Can't plug this in the backend - feature not yet available, but this is a play).

Regardless of how well the Lakers are defensively, when the Lakers carried a 33 point lead at one point against the Suns on the road at Phoenix, the Suns will be fired up for this game. I do expect the Lakers to come back and make this game competitive but I think the Suns get off to a fast start. After all, the Suns are a team that were rusty in the beginning of the year as there was a new cog in the system known as Grant Hill. Now, this team has meshed and this team would love to get some revenge here and the Lakers are more of a second half team regardless anyway. For example, remember back to when the Nuggets played the Lakers in L.A. and the Lakeshow started off very poorly only to come back fired in the second half. I look for the Suns to play with more intensity in the first half and this game to tighten up in the second half.

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The Wunderdog

Game: Miami at Cleveland (2:30 PM Eastern)

Pick: Cleveland -200 (moneyline)

Miami is just 4-10 on the road this season, allowing 101.3 ppg. They have improved sligthly from they still stand at 8-19 overall. They have lost four of their last six games and ten of their last fourteen. Wade is great but with Shaq showing his age, Wade doesn't have the supporting cast to do much. Cleveland has been another dissapointment but they are a much better team than Miami. At home they average triple digits and have a winning record. Cleveland is off an upset loss to Golden State and must go on the road after the holidays. We expect LeBron to show up big here under the national TV spotlight and the Cavs to get the win.


Game: Phoenix at Los Angeles Lakers (5:00 PM Eastern)

Pick: Los Angeles Lakers +3 (-110)

The Lakers are maturing quickly as a team and with it, Kobe is beginning to trust his teammates more and more. Kobe has scored below his season average in six of the last ten games, yet the Lakers have now gone on an 8-2 run, and are one of the hottest teams in the NBA. Andrew Bynum has now scored in double figures in six straight games, and is becoming more and more of a factor. Lamar Odom is averaging a double-double during this 10 game run as well. The Lakers can score, but you have to also be impressed with the commitment on the other end of the floor, as they are holding teams to an NBA 3rd best in FG percentage defense and are defending the 3's at an NBA's 2nd best. The Suns, when clicking, are an unstoppable unit. The best example of this can be made by looking at their 13-2 run awhile back. They were averaging 113.6 ppg during that stretch, and simply out-scored everyone. They have really cooled off however, and with no commitment on the defensive end, it has resulted in a 3-4 stretch over their last seven games. The Suns last seven games have shown them scoring just 104.9 ppg. Where the Suns have struggled is against the good offensive teams, or the good defensive teams. They are 3-3 SU and 0-5-1 ATS vs the top seven offensive teams. They are 1-3 SU and 1-3 ATS vs the top seven defensive teams. Combined, that's 4-6 SU while going 15-2 SU in all other games and 1-8-1 ATS (11-6 ATS vs all other teams). The Suns are being out-scored in these games by 3.9 ppg. The Lakers are the 3rd best offensive team, playing well and at home. The Suns have yet to cover in this type of match-up, so we have a false favorite here.

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John Ryan

AI Simulator 3* graded play on the Miami Heat. National TV spot is the perfect time for the under achieving Heat to show that they still have an interest in playing NBA caliber basketball. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 101-57 ATS over the past 5 seasons. Play on road teams after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last seven games and is a bad team winning 25% to 40% of their games on the season. Miami is playing far better on the offensive end having scored 111, 103, and 104 points in their last 3 games. Miami is 15-3 ATS in road games after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games since 1996.

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TUESDAY PICKS(NSA)
20* NBA Phoenix -2.5
10* NBA Cleveland -4.5
10* NBA Seattle +7.5

TUESDAY PICKS(CHICAGO)
FORTUNE 500: 20* NBA Phoenix -2.5
EXECUTIVE: 10* NBA Miami +5
EXECUTIVE: 10* NBA Seattle +7.5
DIRECTORS: 5*

TUESDAY PICKS(CAMPONE)
CADILLAC: 20* NBA Seattle +7.5
WISEGUY ACTION: 10* NBA Miami +5
WISEGUY ACTION: 10* NBA Lakers +3
SHARP EDGE: 5*

TUESDAY PICKS(CALLAHAN)
20* NBA Cleveland -4.5
15* NBA Seattle under 198.5
15* NBA Phoenix -2.5


TUESDAY PICKS(SOUTH BEACH)
ZEBRA CLUB: 20* NBA Seattle +7.5
BIG ACTION: NBA Miami +5
BIG ACTION: NBA Phoenix over 221.5

TUESDAY PICKS(HOLLYWOOD)
INSIDE ACTION: 20* NBA Phoenix -2.5
BLUE RIBBON: NBA Miami +5
BLUE RIBBON: NBA Portland -7.5

TUESDAY PICKS(MICHIGAN)
BIG HOUSE: 20* NBA Seattle under 198.5
LOCKERROOM: 10* NBA Miami under 191.5
LOCKERROOM: 10* NBA Phoenix -2.5

TUESDAY PICKS(NEW YORK)
INNER CIRCLE: 20* NBA Seattle +7.5
SYNDICATE: NBA Cleveland -4.5
SYNDICATE: NBA Phoenix -2.5

TUESDAY PICKS(PIOLI)
HIGH ROLLER: 20* NBA Phoenix -2.5
VEGAS WISEGUY: 10* NBA Miami under 191.5
VEGAS WISEGUY: 10* NBA Seattle +7.5

TUESDAY PICKS(VIP ACTION)
VIP CLUB: 20* NBA Phoenix over 221.5
ROXY'S: NBA Cleveland -4.5
ROXY'S: NBA Portland -7.5

TUESDAY PICKS(20* CONSENSUS)
20* NBA Phoenix -2.5

TUESDAY'S PICKS(HIGH ROLLERS CLUB)
20* NBA Miami +5 and 10* UNDER 191.5

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O.C. Dooley

Game: Primetime Total

Pick: Sonics/Blazers UNDER 197'

“1 UNIT” NBA PRIMETIME PERCENTAGE TOTAL (Sonics at Blazers UNDER 197’ in an 8:05 eastern tipoff):

This is the only Christmas tilt in the NBA that is not featured on national television, which is a shame since Portland just happens to be riding a massive 10-game winning streak and that is the longest streak this year in the entire league. Even though top draft pick Greg Oden is out for the season due to injury, the young Blazers are thriving with a roster made up of primarily ex-#1 draft picks. Last years’s “rookie of the year” Brandon Roy is averaging 23 points per game in the past two weeks where he has walked away with the “western conference player of the week” award twice. This matchup originally was touted as the first time that the NBA’s top-two draft picks would meet. Seattle has to be happy with what Kevin Durant has already given them, as the former Texas Longhorn is averaging right around 20 points per game. The oddsmakers had no choice but to inflate tonight’s total since Seattle is coming off a very high scoring 123-115 triumph, where defensive intensity was an afterthought. During their massive 10-game winning streak, Portland’s offense has put up 104 points per contest. But the bottom line is that the Blazers are one of the league’s LOWEST SCORING offenses. In the prior four games before the team went on this 10-0 mission, the Blazers were only averaging 80’ points per contest, so I am taking full advantage of tonight’s inflated total. For the season to date, Portland just happens to be 10-5 UNDER the total when playing in front of the HOME fans. Seattle is 18-8 UNDER when coming off a spread triumph, and a resounding 11-3 UNDER this campaign when off a contest where the defense allowed at least 105 points. For those of you who may not be aware, Portland’s Nate McMillian used to be a successful head coach in Seattle, before exiting due to a mess in the franchises’s front office. Dating all the way back to 1996, teams coached by McMillian are 31-14 UNDER when off 4 consecutive straight-up victories. I will wrap this up with a five-year SYSTEM (40-13) that has successfully covered the spread at a 76-PERCENT clip. This fabulous system takes teams like Seattle who are off an upset win as an underdog, UNDER a posted total in the 190’s, against an opponent (Portland) who is off a victory against a “divisional” opponent.

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