Friday Service Picks and Free Consensus Reports

Re: Friday Service Picks and Free Consensus Reports

BEN BURNS

Main Event - Memphis

BURNS NBA:

I'm playing on the Mavericks and Clippers to finish UNDER the number. The Mavs began the season by seeing the majority of their games finish above the number. However, that hasn't been the case lately. Wednesday's game stayed below the total, the UNDER is now 5-1 their past six games. The Mavs have also seen the UNDER go 2-0 this season when playing at home with an over/under line ranging from 190 to 194.5. Looking back a bit further and we find the UNDER at a profitable 17-9 when the Mavs have been in that role since 2005. Meanwhile, the Clippers have seen the UNDER go 3-0 this season when playing a road game with an over/under line ranging from 190 to 194.5 and 12-6 in that situation since 2005.The Clippers played solid defense last time out as they limited Toronto to only 80 points. Unfortunately for LA fans, their offense managed a mere 77 points. That game stayed below the total by 30 points and brought the UNDER to 11-5 their last 16 games. Looking at the series history and we find the UNDER at a profitable 14-3 the last 17 times that these teams have faced each other, including 11-1 the last 12. I'm expecting more of the same this evening with the final combined score staying beneath the number and the UNDER improving to 26-16 the last 42 times that the Mavs were coming off a game in which they allowed 105 or more points. *Western Conference Total of the Month


Over Knicks -- Anhilator

Bobcats to finish OVER the total. The Knicks come off just their third win in the month of December, a convincing 108-90 rout of the Cavs. Note that they were underdogs for all three of those victories. The Knicks followed up each of those previous victories by seeing their next game finish above the total. That brought the OVER to 5-1 this season when they were coming off a SU victory when listed as an underdog. That's worth mentioning as we find the OVER at 4-0 this season when they've been listed as road underdogs in the +3.5 to +6 range. Looking back a little further shows the OVER at a profitable 16-7 the last 23 times that the Knicks were in that role. Meanwhile, we find that the Bobcats have seen the OVER go 3-0 this season when listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -6 range and 11-6-1 their last 18 in that role. Additionally, they've seen the OVER go 2-0 this season when playing a home game with an over/under line in the 190 to 194.5 range. Looking at three previous meetings in 2007 (all last season) and we find that they had over/under lines of 198.5, 199.5 and 203. Tonight's number is obviously much lower than that and I feel that provides us with excellent value. Look for a high-scoring affair that finishes above the low number with the OVER improving to 13-5 the last 18 times that the Knicks were coming off a double-digit victory. *Annihilator

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JOHNNY GUILD

NBA Selection
Friday, December 21st, 2007 8:00 PM EST.

Memphis Grizzlies (8-17) at Detroit Pistons (18-7)
The Pistons go for their sixth straight win over the Grizzlies and have taken the last two clashes at The Palace of Auburn Hills, seven of their last eight. However, laying double digits is a bit risky. Memphis has played the Pistons tough. The Grizzlies have lost seven of their last eight at Detroit, but went 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings and 4-2 ATS in the last six in Detroit. The struggling Grizzlies may not be a great money maker and are a sorry road team, just 3-9 this season, but are 6-5-1 ATS away from home this season. Take the Grizzlies to cover the spread in Motor City.

Memphis Grizzlies +10


NCAAF
Friday, December 21st, 2007 8:00 PM EST. (Eastern Time)

8:00 PM EST. Memphis Tigers (7-5) vs. Florida Atlantic Owls (7-5)
Site: Louisiana Superdome - New Orleans, Louisiana

Florida Atlantic Owls -3

This will be the first of five Florida teams to go bowling. Memphis has been on a roll, winning five of its last six games, but has not been successful against Sun Belt teams. They lost to Middle Tennessee and Arkansas State this year. I like the Owls to win this game in their first-ever bowl game, but go easy. This clash will be a close fought battle that could go either way. The Owls had a more grueling schedule and believe their offense led by Rusty Smith will give the Tigers pass defense a problem.


NCAAB
Saint Joseph's Hawks - 7.5

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Wolkosky Milan

330-269-13 last one hundred eighteen days
1-3 Yesterday

Today:

10* FLATL/MEM OVER 66

10* UTAH +4½
10* TOR/SEA OVER 194
10* NYK/CHA OVER 191

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IceMan

Edmonton Oilers ML +113

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MIKE LINEBACK

4* Toronto Raptors/Seattle Supersonics Total Points OVER 193.5

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ASAWINS

6:35:00 PM New York Islanders +120

ASA 5* New York Islanders $ line (+) @ Pittsburgh @ 6:30 P.M. The Islanders certainly haven't been hot but they are catching the Penguins at the ideal time for a big upset on the road. The results that each of these teams are coming off of in their most recent game is what makes the situation so strong for the Isles here. New York suffered a tough loss against Buffalo in their most recent game. However, the Islanders outshot the Sabres 43-17 and that makes them even hungrier for tonight's game. The Isles know they outworked their opponent in their most recent game and yet they still fell short. The other advantage the Islanders have is that they were off last night. While they prepared for tonight's game the Penguins were battling the Bruins in Boston. This leaves the Pens in a tough spot and last night's results didn't help Pittsburgh. The Penguins blew a 4-0 lead and had to go to the shootout before finally claiming the victory. The Pens are inconsistent (witness last night's blown 4-goal lead) and their goaltending is often suspect. Conversely, the Isles recent struggles can't be blamed on goalie Rick DiPietro. He's played quite well and with another night on tap where his teammates outwork the opposition, this time the Isles come out on top! Solid underdog price is the way to go here!

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Jarheadtips

NBA:

Atlanta +4.5
Boston -9.5


JIM KRUGER

Memphis +3.5 over Florida Atlantic – Bronze 3*

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Black Magic Sports Plays

NCAA Football:

5 Unit Black Magic New Orleans Bowl Beatdown on Florida Atlantic -3

Florida Atlantic will bring more fans to this game as they are just a hop skip and a jump away from New Orleans. They are the better all-around team with one of the best quarterbacks in the country that noone knows about. Rusty Smith has thrown for over 3,300 yards and 27 touchdowns to just 7 interceptions. His effective passing game will lead the Owls over the Tigers who give up a ton of points. Memphis gives up 8.2 yards per passing attempt in road games. Memphis is 3-12 ATS off 2 straight wins against conference rivals. Florida Atlantic’s win over Troy to end the season as a 15-point underdog gives them tremendous momentum heading into this contest. Cash in with Florida Atlantic as the favorite.

NBA:

3 Unit Sharp Play on Washington Wizards -4.5

The Washington Wizards are showing awesome value at home tonight. The Wizards already beat the Hawks earlier this year by 11 points in Atlanta. Now they take on the Hawks at home where they should have no problem posting another double-digit victory. The Hawks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Wizards are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games against the Eastern Conference. The Wizards are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Cash in with Washington as the favorite.

3 Unit Sharp Play on Portland Trail Blazers -4

The Portland Trail Blazers have now won 9 straight games and they will make it No. 10 tonight. Portland will be playing a Denver team that is coming off a double-overtime game last night and their tired legs won’t allow the Nuggets to keep up with the Blazers in this one. Iverson played over 56 minutes and Anthony played over 51 minutes for the Nuggets last night. Without these two superstars on fresh legs, the Nuggets simply cannot compete. The Blazers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Cash in with Portland as the favorite.

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Michael Cannon

Friday's Plays

15 Dime

MEMPHIS

Take the points with Memphis tonight in the New Orleans Bowl over Florida Atlantic.
These two teams are pretty evenly matched, so I don’t expect a blowout on either side.Memphis finished the season strong, winning five of its last six games after starting the season 2-4. Quarterback Martin Hankins was the catalyst on offense, averaging 351 ypg with 17 TDs and only seven INTs during the last six games. Hankins loves to spread it around, with five receivers catching at least 30 passes this year.

The other reason I like Memphis here is the emergence of its running game down the stretch. Senior Joseph Doss had two games where he rushed for over 165 yards down the stretch and that threat should make the Tigers that much more efficient on offense.

Florida Atlantic is playing in its first-ever bowl game and will no doubt be fired up, but Memphis has been winning the close ones down the stretch and I think they have the better shot at bringing home the win for us.

Both teams have questionable defenses so the score should be high, but I like Memphis to continue its trend of coming through at the end in another close game.

Take the points with Memphis.

5 Dime –

GEORGE MASON

Lay the points with George Mason on the road over Florida International.

George Mason rolled to a 65-39 win last year over FIU and that was with a team that had somewhat of an off year after their Cinderella Final Four run in 2005. They have improved this year and I expect another blowout win as a result.

Florida International is returning home after a pair of Sun Belt road games, so they are not in the easiest of situations here.

Look for George Mason to swarm and force FIU into several turnovers which will lead to the double-digit win.

Lay the points with George Mason as they grab the road win and cover.


76ERS

Take the points with the 76ers at home tonight over the Lakers.
This line is a trap folks.Trust me.

The public sees the Lakers as an easy winner here and will gladly lay the bucket on the road over a 76ers team they perceive as inferior.

But the 76ers have played good defense so far this year and have what it takes to get the job done as the small home dog.

The Lakers are playing their third game in four nights and are coming off a nationally televised game against the Cavaliers last night. Not only will fatigue be a factor, but the Lakers are in a prime letdown spot after gearing up for LeBron James last night.
This is Philly’s lone home game in seven days, so look for them to go all out in front of the partisan crowd.

Take the 76ers as the small home dog as they get it done over the Lakers.


CELTICS

Lay the points with the Celtics tonight over the Bulls.

Boston is coming off its first home loss of the season and will be looking to take out some frustration on Chicago here.

The Bulls rank near the bottom of the league in field goal percentage and offense, and I don’t see them getting anything going against a Celtics team that ranks near the top of the league in points allowed per game.

Boston defeated Chicago 92-81 two weeks ago as a 5-point road chalk and should find it easier tonight in front of the home crowd.

Take the Celtics for the big home win and cover.

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Vernon Croy

Toronto Raptors vs. Seattle Supersonics (NBA) - 10:35 PM EST Premium Play
Pick: Point Spread: -4.5/-105 Toronto Raptors Play Title: 20 Unit NBA Slam Dunk

Analysis
20 Units, Take Toronto -4.5, The Raptors are the overall superior team here tonight and they are 7-2 ATS this season after a non-conference game. Seattle is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games when the posted total is 190 to 194.5 and they are also just 4-7 in their last 11 games as a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points. Seattle's opponents are averaging 105.3 ppg against them this season and I really like the Raptors to bounce back with a big double digit win after their loss against Portland

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IndianCowboy

Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: Indiana Pacers @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Pick: 3 units (Normal) TOTAL: Over 202 (-109)

Total of 3 plays including the Florida Atlantic -2.5 play released earlier this week.
I learned a lot about this Minny team at home against Golden State when they came out of the games very competitive. I might regret later not taking a first half play on this and doing it for the game, but I do believe that Minny will be competitive in this game. Furthermore, the Pacers continue to show up on the road scoring over a 100 points in a flurry -106 at Miami, 119 at New York and over a 100 against a defensive 76er unit at home. The Pacers have gone over in their last 4 road ballgames and the Twolves are 7-2-1 to the over after losing by 10 or more points straight up. This team had Golden State on the ropes and let them off the hook and they will look to stay competitive throughout this game and I think that will lead to both teams scoring over a 100 points as they each continue to push each other.

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Seabass

NHL
10* Colorado

NBA
10* Knicks Over
10* Philly
10* Boston
20* Dallas Under

NCAAB
10* Wyoming
NCAAF

10* Memphis +3

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Teddy June’s College Football New Orleans Bowl Winner

My 10* College Football New Orleans Bowl Winner is the Memphis Tigers plus the points over the Florida Atlantic Owls. Each team finished the year at 7-5 SU, the Owls finished at 7-5 ATS and the Tigers 6-4-1 ATS. Memphis ended the year strong with 3 straight wins and 5 of their last 6, victories as underdogs on the road over Rice, Tulane and Southern Miss. Closing the year with wins at home over UAB and SMU. They did fail to cover the 6.5 point chalk in their last contest but the game did go to overtime as the Tigers squeaked out a 3 point victory 55-52. The key for the Tigers this season has been their passing attack led by senior quarterback Martin Hankins. Tigers rank 12th in the nation in passing yards and Hankins despite missing a few games to injury earlier in the year has had a terrific season with comp% 60.7, 2939 passing yards, 22 TD’s and 12 INT’s. They have “trees” for wide outs with 6’4 sophomore Duke Calhoun (58rec, 850 yards, 5 TD’s) and 6’7 sophomore Carlos Singleton (47rec, 704 yards, 10 TD’s). Both cause huge matchup problems for most DB’s in the country as they can leap over just about anyone in the secondary. There are led in the backfield by senior running back Joseph Doss (154 attempts, 715 rushing yards) and sophomore T.J. Pitts (104 attempts, 481 yards, each back averaging a solid 4.6 yards per carry. The running game picked up a lot of steam down the stretch of the season after each back battled injuries throughout the year, both come in healthy for tonight’s matchup. The Owls are off a huge upset victory as they shocked many with a big win over the Troy Trojans as 15 point underdogs. However, it is important to note that teams entering off big upset victories like this generally do not fare well in their bowl games as they end up in a letdown situation. FAU like Memphis sports a strong passing attack, ranked nationally at 19th in the country, led by sophomore Rusty Smith. Their claim to fame this season has been the toughness of their schedule and tying for the lead in takeaways on defense. As far as their schedule I take it with a grain of salt as they did not compete in the tough games at all. They lost 6-42 as 24 point underdogs to Oklahoma State, 17-45 as 24 point underdogs against Kentucky, lost 23-35 against South Florida as 17 point underdogs (USF was in a letdown off the big WVU upset) and lost 20-59 as 34 point underdogs to Florida. So they failed to cover and compete in each game except for the South Florida game in which the Bulls were in one of the biggest let down situations of the year. The fact that they tied for most takeaways in the nation is certainly impressive, the stat is a bit misleading though. They had 7 takeaways against arguably the worst team in the country at taking care of the ball in Minnesota a team that sported a -15 turnover ratio on the year and 4 takeaways against UL-Lafayette a team with a -5 turnover ratio. They did get 4 from USF however once again I take that game with a grain of salt considering the letdown situation. Memphis comes in as a team that has comparable numbers in the turnover stats as they have a +9 turnover ratio on the year with 25 takeaways, 16 turnovers while FAU has 33 takeaways and 14 turnovers. This game will go back and forth early as neither team is very strong defensively other than forcing turnovers. However I expect Memphis to pull it out down the stretch as they have so many times this year. 4-1 SU in games decided by 3 points or less (Ole Miss only SU loss, did cover ATS). This Memphis team in my opinion comes in undervalued due to their inconsistent early season. This was mostly due to injuries with key guys all being out at different times, tonight they come in healthy and look to improve on their recent bowl success winning 2 of their last 3 both SU and ATS. It is also worth noting the Owls are 0-9 ATS their last 9 games against non conference teams away from home. My 10* College Football New Orleans Bowl Winner is the Memphis Tigers plus the points. As always, Good Luck, Let’s make some money.

Teddy June’s College Basketball Game of the Day (7-1 CBB RUN)

My 10* College Basketball Game of the Day is the Davidson Wildcats plus the points over the NC State Wolfpack. Wildcats started the year ranked in the top 25 and with an extremely tough early season now sit 1 game below .500 at 4-5 SU. They lost by 4 as 11 point dogs against North Carolina, lost by 6 as 8 point underdogs to Duke, and 12 as 13 point underdogs to UCLA. In the midst of these close losses to big teams they dropped a couple questionable games; however, I will say scheduling wise they were in a terrible spots in both the Western Michigan and Charlotte games. Charlotte was sandwiched in between Duke and UCLA and Western Michigan was immediately after the UNC game. There is nothing like traveling to Western Michigan after you just drop a heartbreaking 4 point loss to the number 1 team in the country. First and foremost this team is led by superstar sophomore guard Stephen Curry (24.1ppg), when he is on he is the best shooter in the country. Picking up his role the last two years senior point guard Jason Richards is one of the best distributors in the country, averaging 12.9ppg and leading the nation with 9.0apg. In the front court they are led by senior forward Boris Meno who is averaging 8.8ppg and 7.8rpg. Wolfpack on the year are 5-3 SU they own a big win against Villanova on a neutral court but own some bad losses with 4 point outright loss at East Carolina as 9.5 point chalk, at Michigan State by 23 points as 9 point underdogs, and at home in a 2 point loss as 18.5 point chalk against New Orleans. They are very inconsistent offensively and are led by freshman JJ Hickson, averaging 18.0ppg, and 8rpg. He also however does lead the team in turnovers at 25 on the season. They have struggled especially behind the 3 point line as they shoot an abysmal 29.6 from beyond the arc; that will certainly be a problem tonight as they face one of the highest scoring offenses in the nation. Davidson is a very efficient disciplined team that has a great deal of experience tonight they face an NC State that struggles to take care of the ball, Through eight games, the 'Pack are averaging 15 turnovers a game while opponents are averaging slightly fewer than 11. Opponents have 53 steals to N.C. State's 31. In my opinion this line carries a lot of value due to Davidson’s tough early season losses and their program still being under the radar in comparison to an ACC school. This is the last “big” game for them before their schedule weakens considerably so they will be ready to go. I wouldn’t be surprised if the turnout for this game is not great, during the holiday break generally not a lot of students will come to the games, especially when their team is playing an under the radar team like Davison. I don’t expect the crowd to be much of an impact and Davidson has traveled quite successfully over the last few years. Dating back to last year they are 16-5 ATS their last 21 road games and 13-3 ATS their last 16 road games against teams with a winning home record of .600 or greater. Meanwhile NC State has dropped their last 2 lined games and 5 out of their last 6 ATS. I currently have this line at +2.5/+3 and expect it will waiver around this number and drop later in the day. Recommend playing it early and I have this rated at 10* down to pk. My 10* College Basketball Game of the Day is the Davidson Wildcats plus the points.

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Larry Ness' New Orleans Bowl ATS Mismatch (FAU/Memphis)

My 15* play is on Memphis at 8:00 ET. Florida Atlantic is in its first-ever bowl game (Div I-A since just '04), while Memphis is in its 4th in five years under head coach Tommy West (2-1 SU and ATS). FAU beat a bad Minnesota team this year 42-39 but lost to Okla St, Kentucky, USF and Florida by the combined scores of 181-66. However, it lost just once all year in the SBC and in what was essentially the SBC championship game at Troy on Dec 1, scored 28 points in a span of 12 minutes in the second half to secure a 38-32 victory, as 16-point dogs! Memphis started the year 2-4 having lost a teammate who was killed on campus, playing three games in 11 days and losing starting QB Hankins to injury fro two games. It lost twice to SBC teams in that 11-day span but rebound to win FIVE of its last six games, averaging 35.8 PPG. Hankins averaged 351.2 YPG in that six-game run, with a 17-7 ratio. FAU's QB Rusty Smith threw for conference records of 3,352 yards and 27 touchdowns (just eight INTs) but like Memphis, FAU doesn't run the ball all that well. Both teams are vulnerable on D but both have excellent TO ratios. FAU forced 33 takeaways, leading the nation with a plus-19 TO margin. However, Memphis had just 16 giveaways, against 25 takeaways (plus-9). FAU head coach Howard Schnellenberger may be 4-0 all-time in bowl games but that was LONG ago and FAR away. The SBC is CFB's weakest conference, while Memphis played well down the stretch and is playing on artificial turf for the 12th time in 13 games (7-3 ATS plus a 35-14 win in a non-lined game). Bowl experience favors the team from the stronger conference, which is also the underdog in this game. That's a nice combo. 15* ATS Mismatch on Memphis.

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Alex Smart

2*FLORIDA ATLANTIC -3

The Owls Howard Schnellenberger was the head coach at Miami when the 'Canes won their first national championship. This guy is one of my favorite all time coaches, and gets the most out of his player personal , especially in big game situations, as was the case in the Sunbelt championship, taking out a excellent Troy State squad. Memphis their opponents did finish off their season, in an up mode winning , 4 of their L/5 against a opponents I had pegged as national bottom feeders. So needless to say im not impressed by that run. Conference USA teams like Memphis are 0-12 ATS in Bowl games off a SU and ATS win, if they did not cover by 10+ in that game, and they're matched up against a foe also off a SU win.( The Tigers qualify after a 55-52 win as 6.5 point underdogs in their last game of the year) Play on Florida Atlantic

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Rocketman

CBB

Buffalo vs Wyoming 11:20 PM EST
Play On: 3* Wyoming -4

Buffalo is scoring only 63.4 points per game on the road this year and allowing 82.4 points per game on the road this season. Buffalo is 7-20 ATS last 27 road games. WYOMING is 11-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive unders over the last 2 seasons. WYOMING is 8-1 ATS after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. WYOMING is 9-1 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. WYOMING is 11-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. We'll play Wyoming for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

CFB

Florida Atlantic vs Memphis 8:00 PM EST
Play On: 1* Florida Atlantic -3

Memphis is 7-21 ATS since 1992 after 2 or more consecutive wins. Memphis is allowing 35.8 points per game on the road this year. Memphis is 14-28 ATS after 2 home games. MEMPHIS is 3-12 ATS off 2 straight wins against conference rivals since 1992. MEMPHIS is 16-30 ATS off a home win since 1992. MEMPHIS is 2-14 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game since 1992. Florida Atlantic is 2-0 while Memphis is 0-2 against common opponents this year. Florida Atlantic beat Arkansas State 34-31 and beat Middle Tennessee State 27-14 while Memphis lost to Arkansas State 35-31 and lost to Middle Tennessee State 21-7 this season. We'll play Florida Atlantic for 1 unit tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

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ALEX SMART

NBA

Los Angeles Lakers -1.0 / 3 units

College Basketball

Wyoming -4.0 / 2 units


College Football

Florida Atlantic -3.0 / 2 units

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SMI Picks

Memphis in CFL

Washington Wiz in NBA


LVTR

College Football
FAU -2.5

NBA
Minn/Indiana Under 203

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Northcoast

Top On Memphis
Top Over 66- Marq. Play

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