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Re: Thursday Service Picks and Free Consensus Reports:

Karl "G Man" Garrett Comp

Both schools sport similar records, as the 'Zags bring a 9-2 mark into this tilt against a Sooners team that sports an 8-3 ledger. The difference in this game is going to be the strength of schedule, as Gonzaga has definitely hoed the tougher row up to now, playing the likes of Texas Tech, Virginia Tech, St. Joe's, UConn, and Washington State already, while Oklahoma's toughest two battles have come against Memphis, and USC - both losses.

The Sooners have also dropped a game to Stephen F. Austin recently, which tells the G-Man that coach Jeff Capel still has a ways to go with this year's OU edition.

Mark Few's team has played in plenty of hostile venues in the past, and already this year, so don't expect the Bulldogs to be fazed playing this game in Oklahoma City.

I am taking Gonzaga in this near pick spot, as I fully believe the 'Zags are going to win this game outright.

4* GONZAGA
(on a 1* to 5* basis)

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SUNSHINE FORECAST Official Prediction:

Utah 44 Navy 21
Utah (1 star)

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Vegas Sports Experts

The VSE NFL Power Play for Thursday is:

Take Pittsburgh (-7.5) over St. Louis (NFL Power Play)
8:00 PM EST

Pittsburgh
• 20-6 SU as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
• 6-1 SU coming off an upset loss as a home favorite
• 10-2 SU in non-conference games

ATS=Against the Spread
SU=Straight Up

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Comps

Mike Wynn

New Jersey/Miami Under 189


Platinum Plays

CBB: the OKLAHOMA SOONERS - 2 Over the Gonzaga Bulldogs


Razor Sharp

NEW JERSEY/MIAMI UNDER the total of 189


Totals 4U

SOUTH ALABAMA - 16


Big Tme Sports

LAKERS / CAVS OVER 205


# 1 Sports

MISSISSIPPI - 7 1/2


Nevada Sharpshooters

GONZAGA +2.5 OVER OKLAHOMA


Huddle up Sports

Arizona -3


Arthur Ralph

Over the total SL Rams


TV Hotline

PITTSBURGH +5


Bud Wiser Picks
TULANE


Dark Horse

The Citadel +32 over Washington St

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Michael Cannon

Thursday's Plays...

25 Dime –

NAVY

Take the points with Navy in the Poinsettia Bowl against Utah.

Forget about all the talk surrounding the loss of coach Paul Johnson, who left to take the Georgia Tech job. That’s because Navy promoted Ken Niumatalolo and he has overseen the triple-option offense for 10 years.

The transition should be seamless as far as the offense is concerned, and considering the success Navy had running the ball this year it should keep them within this number.

Utah bounced back from some early season injuries to finish 7-1 down the stretch, but facing Navy can be a tricky situation as nobody else in the country, let alone the MWC, runs this kind of offense.

This could also be a letdown spot for the Utes after losing to rival Byu in the season finale. That was the game they put their heart and soul into, and the primarily pass-oriented Cougars used the running game to ultimately win, 17-10. Byu rushed for 155 yards on 33 carries in that game and it’s safe to assume Navy will easily double that output tonight.

The Midshipmen are nothing special on defense, and I expect Utah to ring up the points, but quarterback Brian Johnson was taking cortisone shots about a week and a half ago for a chronically aching throwing shoulder and it remains to be seen how effective the passing game will be as a result.


Navy’s triple-option will keep them in it until the end.

Take the points with Navy.


10 Dime –

MISSISSIPPI

Lay the points with Mississippi tonight on the road over DePaul.

Ol’ Miss plays an up-tempo game that DePaul can’t match. The Rebels have big Dwayne Curtis who can get up and down the floor a lot better than DePaul’s Wesley Green. The fast pace of this game should wear down DePaul and I expect Ol’ Miss to pull away in the second half.

DePaul doesn’t have enough shooters or good enough ball-handlers to sustain good offensive production at this pace, so laying the points with the unbeaten Rebels is the smart play.

Take Mississippi for the road win and cover.


PITT

Take the points with Pitt tonight when they battle Duke at Madison Square Garden.

Both teams come into this game unbeaten, so it should make for a good matchup.

Pitt has opened up its offense this year, playing a more up-tempo style and running at every opportunity. The difference with this team from year’s past is they have the players capable of playing this style, so it’s no surprise their offensive production has gone up.

Freshman DeJuan Blair is establishing himself as a beast in the middle. He can control the boards and also run the floor with the best of them, giving Pitt the advantage when they want to run.

The Panthers also have good quickness in the backcourt, which will help them harass Duke’s ball handlers all game long.

Pitt also has several players on its roster who hail from the New York area, so playing in Madison Square Garden is always a big motivational tool for them.

This game figures to be tight throughout, so taking the points is the play here.

Take Pitt plus the points and don’t be surprised to see them pull off the outright win.


5 Dime –

RAMS

Take the points with the Rams tonight when they host the Steelers.

Are the Steelers the better team?

Yes.

But what have they done this year on the road to make you think they’ll cover this number tonight?

Absolutely nothing.

The Steelers have lost to inferior teams outright on the highway this year. Teams like the Cardinals, Broncos and Jets.

Now they hit the road after playing back-to-back physical and emotional games against the Patriots and Jaguars. Pittsburgh is a beat-up team right now and I just can’t trust them laying this kind of number here.

The Rams certainly have the capability of keeping this game close with running back Steven Jackson and quarterback Marc Bulger. They also own a sparkling 8-1 SUATS mark in last home games, including 7-0 SUATS when playing against non-division foes.

Take the points with the Rams as the Steelers struggle again on the road.

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Deuce True

Odds Makers Error

Pittsburgh -7.5

If you can buy the hook buy it, if not lay the money on the steelers to take care of business by at least -10

Navy -7.5

Utah's defense has been susceptible to the run and they don't bode well against the triple option look. Even with the loss of Paul Johnson, Navy's offense will continue to roll as the ground game has been the staple to their entire existences as a football program.

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Drew Gordon
Thursday Plays:

1. 200,000* Utah
2. 50,000* Rams
3. 50,000* Pittsburgh
4. 50,000* Heat

1. Utah- This one comes down to defense, plain and simple. We all know both these teams can put points on the board in a hurry, the question is can the Utes defense slow down the Midshipmen's vaunted option attack? The answer is yes and here's why:

First things first, despite their success, the Midshipmen are clearly a one-dimensional team. Problem for them is they are facing an excellent Utah defense, which allowed just 7.5 ppg over their last 4 games, with almost a month to prepare for the option attack. Also of note, DT Gabe Long is listed as probable, which is great news for the Utes, as he's their best run-stuffer and a mammoth for Navy's smallish unit to contend with.Utah on the other hand, has a lot more balanced attack, featuring dual-threat Brian Johnson (listed as probable and will play) and 1100+ yard rusher Darrell Mack (13 TDs). I mention this because Navy's paper mache' defense has no chance at slowing down this Utes attack. Because they're a service academy, their stop-unit is smaller than most, and really struggled all season, allowing 36 ppg on 438 total yards per game. Look for Utah to march up and down the field on this Navy defense all game long.Bottom line, while Navy's offense has been rock-solid this season, they're about to run into a well-prepared, well-rested, Utah defense. On the other side of the coin, there's little hope the Midshipmen's defense will be able to contain the Utes for long, as the margin grows, Navy's running attack becomes its own worst enemy. Utah rolls!Take Utah comfortably over Navy as your top-rated play of the day.

2. Rams- This is a great spot for the Rams, hosting a sputtering Steelers team that's just 2-4 SUATS on the road this season, with losses at Arizona, at Denver, and the New York Jets already this season.Critics will argue the Rams are 3-11 team led by a gimpy quarterback, which is all true. However, this gimpy quarterback happens to Marc Bulger, who's going to play and has always excelled indoors, posting a 97 QB rating and throwing 33 TDs versus 13 picks over his last 20 indoors. Make no mistake, the entire Rams offense is predicated on speed, which is exactly what they'll get in the controlled conditions of the Edward Jones Dome.Now let's talk Pittsburgh, as the Steelers have looked a lot more vulnerable over their last several games than at any other time this season. In fact, they're allowing more points (24 to 22) than the Rams defense over their last 3 games. And scoring only 2 points more than the Rams (19 to 17) over that span as well. With the Steelers defense struggling a bit, expect heavy doses of Steven Jackson, which can only mean good things for this Rams team.Bottom line, while I expect the Steelers to win this game, the Rams offense is too good at home to lay this many points with Pittsburgh. Steelers looked good last week at Jacksonville offensively, but their defense was shredded by Garrard and company... More of the same tonight, as this one is a lot closer than Vegas wants you to believe.Take the Rams plus the points over the Steelers in this NFL match up.

3. Pittsburgh- Underestimate the Panthers at your own risk in this spot, as they've got a lot to prove and are highly motivated against a solid, but still beatable Duke squad. Its true Pitt has yet to face a Top-25 team, but wins at Duquesne and at Washington aren't gimme's either.The difference in this one comes down to style of play, as both teams can score, but they do it in different ways. A more perimter-based attack from Duke has been their calling card, but they'll be hard-pressed to shoot their usual 50% against an aggressive Panthers defense. Pitt is allowing just 58 ppg on 38% shooting, including 28% from 3-point, which is significant because you have to be able to defend the 3-point line against the Blue Devils.The Panthers use a more "classic" style of play, attacking from the inside/out with forwards Sam Young and DeJuan Blair. Their 3 guard attack of Cook, Fields, and Ramon may not share the pedigree of Duke's backcourt, but they are effective and know how to take care of the basketball (102 assists to 42 turnovers). By slowing down the tempo with their inside game, and playing hard-nosed perimeter defense on the other end, look for Pitt to keep this game competitive throughout.Bottom line, both teams are playing with a lot of confidence, and I see no reason why this game doesn't come down to the waning seconds. The Panthers maybe unproven thus far, but you better believe they're looking at this contest as a chance for a signature win. We'll take the points, but don't be surprised if Pitt walks away with the outrigth upset here.Take Pittsburgh plus the points over Duke in this college hoops match up.

4. Heat- Coming off a overtime loss yesterday, in a game where they lost Alonzo Mourning for the season, siding with the Heat here may seem risky, but its really not and here's why:First of all, the injury to Mourning is significant, but the fact its going to force an incredibly lazy Shaquille O'neal to get up off his ass and play more miuntes is a good thing. O'neal is more effective when he can wear on an opponent over the course of 4 quarters, and the Nets have absolutely no one that can stop him. At the very least Krstic was able to force O'neal to guard the perimeter, but with him out the Nets are extremely vulnerable down-low.Second, Dwayne Wade is back, dropping 36 points, 10 assists and 6 rebounds on the Hawks yesterday, look for Wade to shred a much slower Nets backcourt. Kidd and Carter are still solid players, but are both showing signs of age, and Carter ankle has been an issue for most of the season. Wade is one of the few players capable of single-handedly taking over a game, and he steps up to the plate once again tonight.Finally, while the Heat has been nothing special at home this year, there's no question they "get up" for the Nets, going 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS over their last 9 meetings with New Jersey. Heat need this win badly, and I say they ride Wade and O'neal right to the W and our payday tonight in Miami.Take the Heat over the Nets in this NBA match up.

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BEN BURNS

Tampa Bay Lightning

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MIKE LINEBACK

4* Oklahoma Spread -1.5 for Game -110

5* Teaser: Football Mixed 2-6 Team Pt Teaser -110

UTAH - 1 1/2 AND PITTSBURGH - 1 1/2

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KEVIN ONIEL

Interesting matchup between two impressive programs that have been led by impressive coaches in recent years. Navy’s success has been in their triple option running attack, which goes for a 352 rushing yards per game. The system implemented by Paul Johnson has been impressive enough to earn him the Georgia Tech job, and the Academy brass was quick to name offensive coordinator Ken Niumatalolo as head coach. With 10 years of experience in Annapolis and having played under Johnson in college when he led the Rainbows to their first every bowl game, he is a good choice and popular among the players. 8 of 11 assistants are
staying next year. Johnson called the plays, so there may be some adjustment there.
Navy’s defense has been beaten up all season,permitting an astronomical 37 points per game on almost 440 yards against a weak schedule. The Middies were beat up on that side of the ball and gave up 30 or more points in 8 of their 12 games.They did hold Army to only a field goal in their most recent game, but that may speak more to the ineptitude of the boys from West Point.Utah, on the other hand, allows only 16 points and 320 yards per game. 37 points and 437 yards. The Utes have had good success slowing down the Falcons over the years. The Ute offense was devastated by injuries early but Utah rebounded in conference play and won 6 consecutive games before losing a heartbreaker in the final minute against archrival and conference champion BYU.Brian Johnson missed a couple of early games with
injury and then led the team down the stretch.Johnson is not the dual threat he was a couple of years ago, as his high rushing game of the year was 37 yards against Louisville. He ran for more than that 8 times in 2005 but the injuries (missed 2006 and two games this year) have changed his game.Navy’s quick hire should avoid some the continuity problems that other programs have had when a
coach leaves, but that D is terrible. 3rd year Ute coach Kyle Wittingham was the DC here under former coaches Ron McBride and Urban Meyer. In their 5 bowl games since 2001, Whittingham’s D’s have held opponents to 6, 0, 7, 10, and 13 points.
But we’re not eager to lay big points in a minor bowl game. With Utah’s offense far from explosive and their amazing history on D in bowl games, we’ll look for this game go stay under the high total

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LT Lock

Pitt Panthers

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Wunderdog Comp (NHL)

Game: Pittsburgh at Boston (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 5.5 -125

Sidney Crosby has been off of late. Last year he led the NHL in scoring but he has managed just one goal in his last nine games. Pittsburgh as a team is averaging just 1.6 goals per game over their last five. Boston is keeping everyone out of the net. They haven't allowed more than three goals since December 8th, when Alex Auld took over as netminder. This team has allowed just 1.8 goals per game in fourteen home games this season. The Penguins are 12-4 UNDER this season when coming off a road game while Boston is 22-11 UNDER in all games.

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SPORTS MEMO - COLLEGE BOWLS

Utah -8 vs. Navy O/U 66.5 Recommendation: Utah

Thursday, December 20, 9 pm EST (ESPN) San Diego, Calif.

We’ll cut to the chase and ask the pressing question, can Utah stop
the rushing attack of Navy? Yards are going to be accumulated by
the Midshipmen. Even in their darkest days running the ball, production
over 250 yards was certain. Utah is a good team at stopping
the run, closing out the year with five out of seven games allowing
less than 100 yards. The one letdown on the season, however, was
against Air Force, a squad that like Navy exclusively runs the option.
The Falcons racked up 334 yards in a 20-12 victory. Despite the letdown,
we feel the familiarity of facing Air Force every season is going
to help in stopping Navy. And like all potent offensive attacks, keeping
them on the sidelines is the best defense. Utah does this well
by holding a four-minute edge in time of possession average for the
season. Offensively with Utah, you aren’t going to get anything special.
Quarterback Brian Johnson is effective, and certainly capable of
carving apart a Navy secondary that allows 265 yards per game. The
strength of Utah, however, is running the football. In their eight wins,
they averaged over 200 yards per game on the ground, whereas in
four losses, just 78. We can expect a large amount of yards on the
ground with the Midshipmen allowing 172 yards per game. Navy’s defense
is beyond bad, allowing virtually everyone to move the ball at
will. Notre Dame, Rutgers, Wake Forest and Pittsburgh all put up 40-
plus points despite only Rutgers averaging over 30 points per game
on the season. A good indicator of how good or bad a defense is is
how many times their opponent punts the football. In 12 games, Navy
foes punted just 29 times. Utah forced 79 punts. It is an intriguing
matchup with Utah allowing just over two TDs a game, while Navy
managed to score no fewer than 24 points. Even with the quirkiness
of Navy, one can’t help but notice when asked to step up in class, the
offense was nowhere near as effective. In losses to Wake Forest and
Rutgers, Navy registered over 100 yards less of total offense vs. its
season output. Another interesting stat for you liking to play first half
lines, Utah outscored its opponents 182-76 in the first stanza this season.
That is a remarkable feat for a moderate offense. The Utes are a
different team than what we saw the first half of the season. The win
at Louisville provided a spark that led to some convincing victories.
They closed out the year on a 6-1 SU and ATS run. Navy’s schedule
hasn’t featured a team with a winning record since I-AA Delaware
in late October, a game the Midshipmen lost. It is extremely hard to
decipher the class of Navy’s schedule vs. the Mountain West conference.
There were some bad teams in the MWC that put on a neutral
field, Navy would surely be able to compete with and potentially beat.
The problem in backing Navy is the defense is so bad and again, when
asked to play a formidable opponent, they just didn’t have the size
or athleticism to hang. Not to mention they will be without the services
of head coach Paul Johnson, who has since departed to Georgia
Tech. While the option is indeed a scary thing to defend, we trust
Utah has enough defensive and offensive clout to get things done

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ATS Financial

3 units on Duke (-5 1/2) over Pittsburgh, 7:00

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Mighty Quinn

UTAH - 8

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CHARLIES SPORTS MEMBERS SECTION

college football. utah-7' (500* )

college football. navy vs utah over 64' (30*)

nfl. pittsburgh-7' (20*)

nfl. pittsburgh @ st.louis over 43' (20*)

nba. denver-6 (10*)

nba. lakers-2 (10*) free play

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Insider Sports Report

4* Miami -4 over New Jersey (NBA)
4* Oklahoma -1.5 over Gonzaga (NCAAB)
3* Navy/Utah (NCAAF) OVER 64.5

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Elite Sports Picks

L.A. Lakers +1 over Cleveland (NBA)


Discount Sports Picks

10* Miami-4 over New Jersey (NBA)
5* Utah -7.5 over Navy (NCAAF)

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THE REAL ANIMAL

Pick title: 4* Utah -8
Pick Date: 12/20/2007
Pick description:
The departure of Coach Paul Johnson doesn’t figure to have a dramatic impact on the vaunted Navy rushing attack tonight. But in this handicapper’s estimation, there appears to be a bigger disparity defensively between these two teams than offensively. In a dozen games this year, Navy’s opponents punted just 29 times. That’s significant especially when you consider strength of schedule. Since October 21st, Navy has only played one team with a winning record. That was I-AA Delaware. When the Middies lost to decent programs like Wake Forest and Rutgers, they accumulated about 100 yards less than their seasonal average. In Utah’s 12 games, the opposition punted 79 times. That’s 50 more forced punts than Navy’s defense registered (more than four possessions per game). I have to give Utah a ton of credit for being there. In Utah’s season-opening loss at Oregon State (24-7), the Utes lost the services of QB Brian Johnson and top RB Matt Asiata. A week later they lost at home to Air Force 20-12. The season looked like a lost cause. But Johnson would eventually return and Utah finished 8-2 including a narrow 17-10 loss to BYU in their last game. That was a game Utah led with less than two minutes to go and the Cougars needed to convert a 4th and 18, plus get two miracle calls by the Zebras to put themselves into position to win with 1:05 left. Putting that close lost into perspective, BYU entered the Utah game with 11 straight home wins including 10 by 13 points or more. For the Utes to limit BYU to 10 points the first 59 minutes in Provo is an incredible defensive accomplishment. Veteran Animal clients know how I preach balance on offense. Navy is completely one-dimensional. Out of 119 FBS teams, the Midshipmen were #119 and dead last in passing. They had just seven touchdown passes all season. That’s half of Florida International’s total for the year. They threw for less than 100 yards per game. Nothing is more frustrating than watching a trailing team trying to play catch-up football by doing something they can’t do. That could easily be Navy tonight especially when you consider the Utes have out-scored their 12 opponents this season 182-76 in the first quarter. Here’s the other issue that really struck me about Navy. How can the Midshipmen have the #99-rated total defense? They run the ball constantly and you would assume would own time of possession. We’ve already established the fact they played a soft schedule. But to allow 438 yards a game to the likes of Temple, Ball State, Duke, Air Force, Pittsburgh, Delaware, Notre Dame, North Texas, Northern Illinois, and Army is inexcusable and bordering on pathetic. Curious to note that last year Navy was #61 in the nation in total defense allowing 335 yards a game. Of course this year’s defense didn’t include eight starters off the 2006 unit. Meanwhile Utah is #15 in the country in total defense. That’s impressive considering they were without their starting QB for a month and lost their #1 running back for the season in the first half of game #1. Last year Utah was #43 in defense. So we have a Utah team up 28 spots in total defense against a Navy unit that dropped 38 spots in the same category from a year ago. Plus take a look at Utah’s track record in the bowls. Since 2001, the Utes are 5-0 SU and ATS in the post-season. What’s remarkable is all five were different bowls and venues. The last four Utah bowls have resulted in victories by margins of 17, 28, 28, and 12 points. You really have to throw out Utah’s seasonal offensive numbers as Johnson missed more than half of the Oregon State opener, plus games with Air Force, UCLA, and UNLV. Before the narrow BYU loss, Utah had won seven straight and covered the last six. I have trouble taking Navy after they allowed 62 points and 635 total yards at North Texas. By comparison, Utah allowed a total of 57 points in their last six games including 17 at BYU with the last seven being awfully tainted. For what it’s worth, Navy was 1-3 SU and ATS against bowl-eligible teams this year. Utah began practicing for their bowl immediately after the BYU loss on November 24th and before official pairings were announced. Navy took the week off for finals after the December 1st win against Army. There are conflicting statistics on Utah. They are 16-2 ATS against non-conference opponents with winning records but 2-18 ATS when they are a favorite and get out-rushed. Military teams are an impressive 19-6 ATS in bowl games. But of course Utah is gunning for their 6th consecutive bowl win and cover. But in the end I can’t stomach bad defenses and Navy’s is atrocious. Plus I believe Utah overcame some amazing obstacles this year following their 1-3 start and losing the two most important members of their backfield in the first month. 4* Major on Utah –8 in our first of 32 bowl games.

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SportsKingz

Poinsettia Bowl:

UTAH -7.5 / OVER 64.5

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