Sunday Service Picks and Consensus Reports

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MARC LAWRENCE

PLAY BOOK / MIDWEEK UPDATE

ARIZONA over New Orleans by 7
After starting the season 0-4, the Saints put
themselves in a major hole. That?s confirmed by
the fact that, since 1980, not one team in the NFL
that started the season with four consecutive losses has
gone on to make the playoffs. Does New Orleans have the
moxie to become the first maiden to enter playoff waters
We dont think so. Not when your team allows more yards
per game than it gains. And not when your defense ranks
in the bottom five of the league. Arizona, on the other hand,
is a dangerous club that won?t accept the fact the playoffs
are out of reach. Sure, they no longer control their postseason
fate, but with games remaining against the Saints
(today), the Falcons and the Rams, they wont quit trying.
We like hungry dogs with better defenses, especially against
teams that are 0-13-1 ATS at home down the stretch
(Games 13-16) versus an opponent off a road game. Add
to that New Orleans? shameful 2-17 ATS record as a home
favorite against teams off a loss and you can understand
our feelings about the Saints likelihood of being a playoff
squad this season. After all, what ye reap so shall ye sew


CAROLINA over Seattle by 1
Last week?s meltdown aside, for a 4-8 squad the
Panthers bring decent numbers into this contest.
For openers theyve had plenty of success against
the NFC West under John Fox, going 10-3 SUATS (10-1
last eleven). The time zone difference is certainly a factor
and should help this week, too, with a 1:00 PM ET
scheduled kickoff (10:00 AM PST body clock time for the
Seahawks). With similar defenses (two yards apart)
squaring off, the edge is on the ground for Carolina, a
certified 4x4 running dog. Toss in the fact Seattle clinched
the NFC West division race with last week?s 21-point home
romp over Arizona and we?ve got ourselves a live home
dog ready to bark up its 7-0 ATS mark when seeking
revenge off a double-digit loss. Mix in the Seahawks
atrocious 1-9 ATS record as road chalk in games off
back-to-back SUATS wins and the table is set with a bowl
full of M&Ms  the candy that melts in your mouth, not in
your hand. Take your choice, plain or peanut  either way
Seattle figures to be shell-shocked here today.

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MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK

BEST BETS


5* BEST BET
MINNESOTA over Chicago by 20
Dont look now, Martha, but here come the Vikings. Given up for
lost at 2-5, theyve stormed their way in to playoff contention.
In an earlier meeting this season, Minnesota edged the Bears
in Chicago, 34-31. Da Bears enter tonight?s contest 14-25 SUATS
on Mondays since 1980, including 1-10 ATS versus an opponent
off a SUATS win. Minny counters at 6-1 ATS under the Monday
Night lights off a win when going into revenge.

4* BEST BET
Jacksonville over PITTSBURGH by 7
NFL games during the final four games of the season involving
.666 or better teams squaring off against one another have
seen the road dog bring home the bacon 62% of the time.
Better yet, if they beat their home favored opponent in the
most recent meeting, they are 19-9 ATS. Toss in Jack Del Rios
glossy 13-7 ATS record as a dog versus .700 or better opposition
and it certainly instills confidence. With favorites just 8-22 ATS
in games after tackling the Patriots, and Pitt shell-shocked off
last weeks disappointing effort at New England, look for the
Jags to pounce on this opportunity.

3* BEST BET
Washington over NY GIANTS by 6
G-Men came up big again last week while the Redskins overcame
the melodrama of the Sean Taylor saga to get past the Bears last
Thursday. The Skins are 8-1 ATS with revenge against a division
foe off a win when their record is below .500. And don?t forget
Joe Gibbs? 28-15-1 ATS mark as a dog ?down the stretch? during
the final four games of the season, including 19-7 when taking
more than 3 points. Until the RIP officially goes up, we?ll race to
the wire with Gibbs? team.


THE REST

Arizona over NEW ORLEANS by 2
As the King once said, its Now or Never for each of these wannabes.
The Saints have never been any good when hosting a foe off an
away game, just 11-28 SUATS. And the anointed ones turn dastardly
in games after performing on Mondays, as they are 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS
in these follow-up affairs. Prefer the Redbirds' smart 6-2 ATS dog
log under first year skipper Ken Whisenhunt.

ndianapolis over OAKLAND by 11
After back-to-back upset wins, Oakland showed its true colors in a
38-7 no-show loss at Green Bay last week. It?s back home where they
take on the Super Bowl champs knowing the SU loser in Raiders?
Game Fourteen matchups is 1-16 ATS. Yech. Theyre also 1-94-1 ATS
in their last 96 straight-up home losses. We don't want any of that!

SAN DIEGO over Detroit by 10
The Chargers stormed back to outscore the Titans 20-0 from the 4Q
out to win in overtime while the Lions choked like Grandma Heimlich
in handing the Cowboys a gift-wrapped one-point victory. Dont
know about you but we think Norv Turner?s task will be an easier one
than Rod Marinellis this week. Problem is laying points with Turner
in one of his worst roles (he has many): 10-20 ATS as a favorite of 5 or
more points, including 4-13 ATS from Game Eight out. Pass.

DALLAS over Philadelphia by 8
Another matchup of two teams off down-to-the wire fi nishes, this time
a division rematch from earlier this year when the Cowboys fl attened
Philly, 38-17. It marked the 2nd worst division loss ever suffered by
Andy Reid, who remains tough when avenging division defeats (18-8-
1 ATS, including 11-2 away). However, Dallas is battling for home fi eld
advantage while the Eagles are just battling a case of the lumps.
TAMPA BAY over Atlanta by 8

The sight of the Pirate ship normally finds the Bucs in a rapacious
mood... except at this stage of the season. Thats because Chucky
returns home in a not-so-comfortable ?down the stretch? role where,
during his NFL career as a head coach, he is 4-10 SU & 3-11 ATS when
hosting a .666 or less opponent, including 0-4 ATS when off a loss
during the fi nal four weeks of the season. Don?t forget, in a 31-7
win over the Falcons a month ago, Tampa outgained Atlanta by a
305-275 margin. Be careful here, mate.

Baltimore over MIAMI by 4
After fending off attacks from the likes of Black Bart and Wild Bill
Hitchcock the past two weeks, the Ravens welcome the sight of Pee
Wee Herman this week. Miamis water-pistol offense has averaged
a mere 9.5 PPG since Halloween, helping make every NFL defensive
coordinator sleep better these days. Baltimore?s 10-1 ATS mark as
non-division road chalk of 5 or less points could have us reaching for
our Smith & Wesson as you read this.

CLEVELAND over Buffalo by 6
Both teams come in off solid wins but they bring nothing but bad
ATS numbers to today's game. The Browns are a money-burning 0-9
at home in December taking on a non-division foe while Buffalo
has dropped eight straight taking points after a Miami game. The
deeper we dig, the worse it gets... better to look elsewhere.

ST. LOUIS over Green Bay by 1
The Rams' recent turnaround has been a pleasant surprise and were
not about to pull the rug just yet. They beat the Packers last year in
Green Bay (as 2.5 point favs) and are a rather robust 13-3 SU & 11-5
ATS home from Games 13-16 since 1998, including 8-2 ATS versus an
opponent off a win. Yes, we?re feeling a bit Ram-bunctious again
here today.

NEW ENGLAND over NY Jets by 24
Another 20-point dog rears its head today, this one with 38-14
same-season revenge. That win moved the Pats mark against the
Jets to 6-1 ATS in this series. It also improved the road team?s record
to 15-2 ATS in this series since 1999. While we?re never in a hurry to
lay double sawbucks we'd probably serve ourselves well to recall
that it was Eric Mangini, a former Bill Belichick assistant, who spilled
the beans on his ex-boss about Spygate.

Seattle over CAROLINA by 4
Panthers let us down with a no-show performance last week in
Jacksonville while the Seahawks were busy wrapping up the NFC
West title with a decisive win over Arizona. With that we note this
hungry home dog is 7-0 ATS with revenge off a double-digit ATS
loss while Seattle is 0-5 ATS as road favorites of more than 4 points
off back-to-back wins if the last win was by 10 or more points. Hold
your nose and grab the points.

KANSAS CITY over Tennessee by 1
The Chiefs are falling faster than the Dow Jones, having dropped
each of their last five games as they prepare for their fi nal home
game of the 2007 season. LHG?s have served Kansas City well,
evidenced by a 17-7-2 ATS mark, including 7-0 SUATS after allowing
30 or more points in its previous game and 5-0 SUATS as dogs.
Meanwhile, the Titans must try to get it back up after last week?s
4Q (and overtime) collapse against the Chargers. It might prove to
be a tough task in the Teepee today.

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MARC LAWRENCE PLAYBOOK

NBA

Sunday, December 16th

Golden State over DETROIT by 6
Improved Warriors catch the Pistons in a nice spot looking dead
ahead to the old kids on the block ? the Boston Celtics. It doesn?t
hurt knowing Detroit is just 6-12 ATS in games before Boston (4-10
as chalk). Better yet, State has been golden in this series, bagging the
cash in 11 of the last 13 games. With the Motor City bunch taking the
court for the 5th time in the last 8 days, look for Don Nelson?s guys
to improve to 10-4 ATS at Eastern Conference sites when seeking
same-season revenge here this afternoon.

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

Sunday, December 16th

LA-MONROE over LA-Lafayette by 17
The Tribe split games with state rival Ragin? Cajuns last season,
winning at home before being waxed in a 29-point loss at Lafayette.
Monroe won 18 games last campaign and returns all fi ve starters
from that unit. Since coming on board two years ago, the Indians
are 9-0-1 ATS as hosts. Look for a major payback here today as
Lafayette loses the battle of Waterloo!

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S. Spritzer's NFL 25* Conf. Underdog of the Year! (*21-9, 70%)

I'm taking the points with the Panthers, my NFC Dog of the Year. Sometimes we come across incredibly strong situations when handicapping the NFL card. This is the best I've seen all season for a team getting this many points. First of all, the Seahawks are in the tough spot of playing in an east coast early kickoff. More importantly, they're off a win over Arizona that wrapped up the division title last week, and realistically they have nothing more to shoot for. Thirdly, the Panthers, although likely out of a postseason berth, still think they have a shot to make the playoffs and fully understand that it's now or never for them. Vinny Testeverde is listed as probable, with Matt Moore and David Carr also available. No matter who gets the majority of the reps, this Carolina team knows they can handle the weak NFC West. After all, the Panthers are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS against Seattle's division mates. They whipped the Cardinals, 25-10, and knocked off St. Louis, 27-13. In fact, just two weeks ago, in the middle of a cold streak, Carolina was still good enough to crush the NFC West 49ers, 31-14. Now, they face a slightly disinterested Seahawks' team who's only impressive road win came against those Niners. Seattle lost at Arizona, got shutout at Pittsburgh, lost at Cleveland, and barely escaped at St. Louis and Philly. Not exactly a solid resume for laying more than a TD away from home. As far as the matchups are concerned, WR Steve Smith will finally go against a defense that doesn't double-team. He's been doubled almost all season and I believe he'll make the most of his matchup against a good, but inconsistent Marcus Trufant. Seattle also likes to gamble up front, pinning their ears back play-after-play. Carolina RB DeAngelo Williams can burn this defense with his speed. And, I expect to see plenty of screens to counter the Seattle pass rush. Look for Carolina to surprise the NFC West champs. I'm taking the points with the Panthers, my NFC Dog of the Year. Thanks! GL! S.

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T. Strikers's 7* NFL Game of the Year - 21-2 ATS System

#258 TAMPA BAY (-12') over Atlanta at 1 PM EST
The season can't end fast enough for Atlanta. The Falcons are without two of their most important assets - QB Michael Vick and now head coach Bobby Petrino. If that wasn't bad enough, Atlanta's recent play only makes this spot worse. On an ugly 0-4 SU and ATS run, the Falcons have surrendered an average of 31.0 ppg and scored an average of just 12.5 ppg over the past four weeks!

There is a really strong system that goes against Atlanta here as well. Since 1980, game 10 or later road teams that arrive off three consecutive double-digit straight up losses are a shocking 12-43 ATS provided they were NOT shutout in their last game. If our guest is matched up against an opponent that owns a won/loss percentage greater than .500, this situation dips to a dismal 2-21 ATS! The Falcons fit both parts of this system!

With the NFC South title on the line, Tampa Bay won't screw around. This is actually a phenomenal spot for the Bucs. As a favorite coming off a straight up loss as a favorite, Tampa has been incredible notching a sweet 21-3 SU and ATS record. Provided the Bucs were favored by -7 or less last, this team trend explodes to a sensational 18-1 SU and ATS! The Bay fits both situations perfectly.

As an underdog of +10 or more coming off a straight up loss of 10 points or more, the Falcons have crash landed posting an ugly 0-11 SU and 1-10 ATS mark provided they're matched up against an opponent that carries a won/loss percentage greater than .600. The Atlanta faithful will be hoping the team rallies after this week's turn of events. Unfortunately, the Buccaneers smell blood and they're going to go for the jugular. Take Tampa Bay. Thank you and best of luck, T. Striker.

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Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-Total (8-2 L10 NFL Insiders, including 3-0 with totals!)-Sun

My Las Vegas Insider is on Az/NO Over at 1:00 ET. Both teams are 6-7 and still have a shot at that final wild card spot, currently held by 7-6 Minnesota. However, DO NOT expect these teams to play this game, "tight to the vest!" The Saints rush for a pathetic 90.5 YPG (3.7 per) and no longer have either Deuce or Reggie in the backfield. The Cards rush for even less yards, at 88.3 YPG (3.6 per). The Cardinals have a good chance of getting Boldin back this week and with Fitzgerald having an excellent season, Warner should have few troubles moving the ball (and scoring POINTS!) against the Saints' somewhat sad pass D (252.3 YPG / 23-11 ratio). As for New Orleans, why would they want to run? The Cards' D has been decimated by injuries and has allowed 32.8 PPG over the last four weeks. The team's best defensive player is out for the year (safety Wilson), as is CB Green and both pass-rushing DEs, Berry and Okeafor! Drew Brees was terrible as the Saints opened 0-4 (12.8 PPG), with one TDP and nine INTs! However, the last nine games (Saints are 6-3 while averaging 27.7 PPG!), he's completing 70 percent, has 22 TDPs with just six INTs and is averaging 286.1 YPG through the air. In the perfect conditions of the Superdome, this game could/should reach 70 points! Las Vegas Insider Az/NO Over.

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Point Train

10-UNIT NFL GAME OF THE YEAR

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) over PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Rating: 10 units


Jacksonville (+) over PITTSBURGH at 1:00 pm EST It?s being referred to as the New England Hangover. Teams coming off a loss to the Patriots are just 4-8 in the following game, with three of those four wins coming against the Jets and Dolphins, who are a combined 3-23 on the season. The Jaguars are no Jets or Dolphins. The last three New England opponents ? Buffalo, Philadelphia and Baltimore ? have all lost their following games, and by an average of 16.7 ppg. The Steelers will suffer the same fate in this game. Jacksonville has flown under the radar this season with New England and Indianapolis taking up a majority of the AFC headlines. But the Jags are sitting at 9-4 (9-4 ATS) this year and have won four of their last five games, with the only loss during that stretch coming on the road at Indy and by just a field goal. They have been very good on the road this year, going 4-2 (5-1 ATS) on the season. Those five covers have come by 9.8 ppg. A major key to Jacksonville?s success has been its efficiency on offense. The Jags don?t score the most or put up the most yards but they chew up clock and take care of the ball. They are seventh in the NFL with a plus-8 turnover margin, due in large part to quarterback David Garrard?s miniscule one total turnover this year. Behind the league?s second-ranked rush offense, Jacksonville is third in the league in time of possession. The Jags average 143.6 ypg on the ground with Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew providing a solid 1-2 punch. Jacksonville?s 5th-ranked rush defense should be able to contain Pittsburgh?s vaunted running game. Despite a solid showing last week against New England, running back Willie Parker, who leads the NFL in carries, is starting to show signs of slowing down. He is averaging just 3.6 ypc over his last four games and will have his work cut out for him against the physical Jaguar defense. The Jaguars showed what they could do against Pittsburgh last year, limiting the Steelers to just 153 total yards, including just 26 on the ground, in a 9-0 win. There will probably be more points scored in this year?s meeting but that won?t change the final outcome. Jacksonville has covered each of the last four meetings with Pittsburgh and will do the same in this one. Ride with the Jags in Point Train?s 10-Unit NFL Game of the Year!


NFL UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH

Buffalo Bills (+5.5) over CLEVELAND BROWNS

Rating: 3 units


Buffalo (+) over CLEVELAND at 1:00 pm EST This is a very unusual spot for the Browns as they haven?t been favored by this much since 2003. As a matter of fact, Cleveland has been a favorite of 6 points or more just four times since reentering the league. With playoff pressure on the line and another potential playoff team in town, the Browns will have a tough time clearing the 5-point spread. The visiting Bills have surprised everyone this year in going 7-6 (8-4-1 ATS) on the season and currently sit just one game behind Cleveland for the final Wild Card spot in the AFC. Buffalo has covered nine straight games as an underdog of a six points or less. The Bills may not be the most talented team but they play hard every weekend. Their offense is improving each week under rookie QB Trent Edwards and it should have no problem scoring against Cleveland?s defense, which is ranked among the worst in the NFL. Ride with the Bills.


NFL SUNDAY NIGHT SPECIAL

Washington Redskins (+4.5) over NEW YORK GIANTS

Rating: 3 units


Washington (+) over NY GIANTS at 8:15 pm EST The Redskins have been playing in close games all season and this NFC East battle with the rival Giants will be no different. Eleven of Washington?s 13 games have been decided by single digits with only one of its seven losses coming by more than eight points. The Redskins may not win this game outright but you can be sure they?ll take it down to the final whistle. Backup QB Todd Collins will be making his first start since the 1997 season in this game but don?t let that fool you. Collins knows the Washington offense better than anyone as he?s been running it for years, either in Washington or Kansas City. He proved his worth last week in relief of Jason Campbell, completing 75% of his passes for 224 yards and two TDs. The Giants have had teams scorch them through the air this season and the Redskins are capable of doing the same. New York QB Eli Manning appears to be falling into the second-half swoon that has plagued him throughout his career. He has completed just 50% of his passes with six INTS and just two TDs over his last three games. He also may not have much of a running game behind him. Starter Brandon Jacobs is nursing a bad hammy while primary backup Derrick Ward is on the injury list with a leg issue. The Redskins are 6th in the NFL with just 94.6 rushing yards allowed per game and won?t allow the Giant running attack to get going. The Giants have struggled at home this year, going just 3-3 (3-3 ATS) on the season. Additionally, they are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games as the favorite and 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 home games overall. Expect Collins to lead the Redskins deep into the game, taking this one down to the wire. Ride with Washington.

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JEFF ALEXANDER

Take Dallas Cowboys

1 Unit on Dallas -10 The Boys nearly went down at Detroit last week. We feel that scare gets them dialed in at home Sunday and poised for a big win. Philly has struggled since its near win over the Patriots with Seattle and the New York Giants then winning on Philly?s home field. The Eagles are just 1-4 straight up and ATS in division games this season while the Cowboys are 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the number. Dallas is 6-1 in home games this season and 5-2 ATS in those contests. The Boys have been one of the best covering teams in the league this year at 9-4 ATS in all games this season. Some of Dallas? success can be contributed to the fact that it is one of the healthiest teams in football. The Boys are at least two TD?s better than the Eagles Sunday.

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DAVE PRICE

Take Tennessee Titans

1 Unit on Tennessee -3.5 Well make this play against the struggling Chiefs who have now lost 6 straight games and 5 if their last 6 ATS. Last weeks 41-7 loss to Denver tell me that the Chiefs have had enough and they are ready for the offseason. Tennessee showed its true colors by fighting and clawing last week before losing in OT to a red hot Chargers team. Well see that same fight this week in K.C. The fact that the Chiefs cannot score the football plays right into the hands of Titans backers here. Tennessee is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 on the road vs. teams scoring less than 17ppg. The Chiefs are just 2-5 at home this season and 1-5 ATS in home games. Well lay the points here.

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Al DeMarco
Sunday's Pick

100 Dime - Cowboys


Arthur Ralph

Superpick

Green Bay Packers


Ken Jenkins

3 units GB/STL over
3 units Tenn
3 units AZ/NO ove

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The Pres

5 units GB/ Stl over
3 units No/ AZ over
3 units NO
3 units TB/Atl under
3 units Philly
3 units PH/Dal over
3 units NYG/Wash under

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OC DOOLEY

4* CAROLINA
3* PHI/DALLAS UNDER
2* ST LOUIS
2* BUFFALO
2* NEW ENGLAND

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Kelso

50* Clev
10* Indy
5* Philly
3* Under Clev

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ATS LOCK

5 Giants -4
5 Over 48 1/2 Arizona
4 Baltimore -3
4 Indy -10

Hoops

4 L Monroe -9
3 Old Dominion -2

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Charlies Sports

Oakland+10' (500* )
Jets+21 (30*)
Cleveland-5' (20*)
Miami+3' (20*)
Carolina+7 (10*)
Tennessee-4 (10*) free play

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cokin 3* vtech hat: illst sy"ballst    pass nba    nfl: 3* sd hat: seatt wind: az tto: bills un

feist: 5* tenntech ic: unc pl: ballst   nba: 5* l;akers ic: port tot: port ov    nfl: 5* bills un ic: jax un pl: sea,tb  pb: tenn tot: jets un

scotty: 5* unc tko: illst   nba: tko: port   nfl: 5* sd tko: wash,jax ko: clev    10* phil un 5* gb ov

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MIKE LINEBACK

5* New York Jets Spread +21.5 for Game -120 (1/2 pt. buy)

4.5* Jacksonville Total Points UNDER 35.5 for Game -101

4* Jacksonville Jaguars Spread +3.5 for Game -125

4* Buffalo Total Points UNDER 37.5 for Game -115


Rain, Snow & high winds are involved in all our
games. As a result, games should be decided on the ground. More punts vs. field goals because wind will take many field goal attempts out of picture.Hence, more 4th down attempts should/will be attempted for first downs. In turn, eating up more of the clock. Red zone efficiency for allteams’ should be negatively effected. Twenty-one points in any NFL contest is obscene, yet alone a rivalry game, with familiar personnel and coaching with adverse weather conditions to boot. Regardless of Pats motivations, the Jets still have some pride and will line up and give it their best shot. In addition, there is still a lot of pressure on New England to sustain their undefeated season. I would be shocked if NE covers this number on Sunday. As always, best of luck…

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LENNY 20* STEVENS

20 star pittsburgh
20 star carolina
10 star atlanta
10 star baltimore

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Insider Sports Report

4* Seattle -7.5 over Carolina (NFL)
4* N.Y. Giants -4.5 over Washington (NFL)
3* Green Bay/St. Louis (NFL) OVER 44.5
3* Jacksonville +3.5 over Pittsburgh (NFL)

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Rainman/Allstar Sports

5* San Diego
3* Tampa Bay
3* Pitt
1* Green Bay

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