Sunday Service Picks and Free Consensus Reports:

Sunday Service Picks and Free Consensus Reports:

WAYNE ROOT: PERFECT PLAY TEXANS, BILLIONAIRE BEARS, INSIDER CIRCLE BENGALS, NO LIMIT RAMS, MONEY MAKER CHARGERS, MILLIONAIRE PANTHERS, CHAIRMAN EAGLES

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  gold sheet: top = denver;   reg = new orl; over hous; under giants

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MARC LAWRENCE NFL PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB play

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Hello,

Here is this week's Perfect System CLub play for Thanksgiving weekend.

Perfect System Club


NFL 11/25/07
WHERE'S THE 'D'?
PLAY AGAINST any .500 > NFL home favorite that has allowed 28 >
points in each of its last three games versus a .300 > opponent.
ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 15-0

Play Against: Cleveland Browns

Rationale: NFL favorites with leaky defenses are never a good
proposition, especially those at home against formidable opposition.

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VICTOR KING'S NFL O/U TOTALS from TIPSHEET

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3* PACKERS @ LIONS GO UNDER THE TOTAL
2* EAGLES @ PATRIOTS GO OVER THE TOTAL
2* 49ers @ CARDINALS GO UNDER THE TOTAL

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Ferringo


NFL SELECTIONS
5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 36.0 Buffalo at Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 25)
The Jaguars have been a fantastic ‘over’ play in the 34.0 to 36.0 total range, covering nearly 80 percent in this range over their last 20. The Jaguars have the 27th ranked pass defense in the league and just lost their defensive leader, Mike Peterson. Without Peterson and Marcus Stroud the Bills should have some room to breath. Further, there is a system at work here that has hit at a 73-percent clip over the past five years that we’re going to play.

2.5-Unit Play. Take #203 Buffalo (+7.5) over Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 25)
The road team is 5-2 ATS in this series and Buffalo has covered four out of five. They got embarrassed last week by the Patriots, but they are an amazing 14-1 ATS in games after playing New England. Jacksonville has some injury issues and I’m not confident enough in their offense as a whole to go out and put up huge numbers. Also, Buffalo is 5-1 ATS as an underdog.

3-Unit Play. Take #217 San Francisco (+10.5) over Arizona (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 25)
The Cardinals are not used to being posted as this large of a favorite and I don’t think I trust them to cover this large number. This is a pretty intense rivalry and this is just too many points. Arizona has been winning lately, but not blowing anyone out. The road team has covered four straight, the Cards are 3-10 as a home favorite of 3.5 or more, and if Arizona can lose to Vinny Testaverde and Carolina at home they can lose to Trent Dilfer and San Fran.

3-Unit Play. Take #207 Houston (+3.5) over Cleveland (1 p.m. Sunday, Nov. 25)
Neither team will be able to stop one another so the value is in the points. Cleveland is like Arizona - they've been winning and playing a lot of close games. I think that Houston has regained its mojo with Andre Johnson back and if they could handle New Orleans' offense last week they can get the better of the Browns, who are due for a letdown after back-to-back grueling divisional games.

2.5-Unit Play. Take #212 New York Giants (-7) over Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 25)
Here is a case of just taking the better team. I think that the G-Men have toughened up against the run and that they can defend well enough to take away what the Vikings want to do.

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NORTHCOAST:
Late Phone Selections:
3.5* Tampa Bay -3 (-130) vs Washington @ 1pm ET Top NFL Game of the Week
3* NY Giants -7 (-120) vs Minnesota @ 1 pm ET
3* San Diego -8.5 vs Baltimore @ 4 pm ET

Phil's Weekly NFL Plays:
4* San Diego -8.5 vs Baltimore
3* Tampa Bay -3 vs Washington
3* Cleveland -3 vs Houston

Top Opinions
Cleveland -3 vs Houston
St Louis +3.5 vs Seattle
Arizona -10 vs San Fran
New England -24 vs Philadelphia Sunday NIght Marquee Play

Regular Opinions
New Orleans -2.5

Had to Pickems
Buffalo +9
Tennessee -1.5
Kansas City -4.5

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cokin 3* oak,az hat: no wind: wash sy: buff    nba: 3* sonics   cbb: 3* siena wind: kan


feist: 5* stl ic: denv pl: oak und pb: bills   nba: 5* lakers tot: spurs und    cbb: 5* pennst pl: rider


scotty: 4* sf tko: tenn ko: clev in: tb   cbb: 5* gow: vill   tko: gmas,sill   nba: tko: nets

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burns NFL

UNDER pats/eagles (48 or better)

Game: Philadelphia Eagles vs. New England Patriots Game Time: 11/25/2007 8:15:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Patriots and Eagles to finish UNDER the total. As you know, the Patriots have been having their way with teams each and every week. They've been covering the spread virtually every week while seeing eight of 10 games eclipse the total. In addition to causing them to be favored by greater than three touchdowns, it has caused the over/under line to be extremely high. With two excellent defenses, I believe that its too high. The Eagles, who will have to rely on their defense more than ever with a banged-up McNabb (gametime decision) and/or AJ Feely at quarteraback, rank in the top 10 in the league in terms of both points allowed and total yards allowed. The Eagles' defense has been particularly stingy on the road, where they have allowed a mere 16.4 points and 262.2 yards per game. Despite the recent bad press, Andy Reid is still a good coach and I expect him to have a gameplan in place in an attempt to avoid getting embarrassed like the rest of New England's opponents. Although the defense has played well on the road, their offense has managed only 17.6 points per game on the road. With or without McNabb, they'll have to be pretty lucky to get that many against a New England defense which is allowing a miniscule 11.2 points per game. You'll probably remember these teams facing each other in the Super Bowl. Although Super Bowls are typically higher scoring than regular season games, the over/under line was only 46 and the teams combined for only 45 points. Yes, the Patriots offense is performing at a much higher level. However, they're defense is also at least as good and the Eagles offense isn't as good as it was at that time. That was the third series meetings since 1999 with the two regular season meetings producing just 41 and 33 points. Despite last week's game finishing above the total, the UNDER remains a profitable 11-2 the last 13 times that the Pats played in the month of November. I expect this evening's game to be lower scoring than expected once again with the final combined score finishing beneath the generous number. *Blue Chip


BEARS (-3 or better)

Game: Denver Broncos vs. Chicago Bears Game Time: 11/25/2007 4:15:00 PM Prediction: Chicago Bears Reason: I'm laying the points with CHICAGO. The Broncos are coming off back to back impressive wins. However, this is an extremely difficult spot. Not only is Chicago a very tough place to play but the Broncos are playing on a short week, having played on Monday Night. That's worth mentioning as we find them at 1-5 ATS the last six times they played with six or less day's rest in between games and because they got smoked 44-7 by the Lions when coming off this season's earlier Monday Night performance. Including that embarrassing loss, the Broncos are just 4-14-1 ATS their last 19 games against teams from the NFC North. Despite coming up short vs. the Dolphins earlier this month, the Bears remain a healthy 10-5 ATS their last 15 home games played in the month of November. Although they came up short at Seattle last week, the Bears' offense showed real signs of life, as they gained 345 yards and matched a season high with 107 on the ground. Grossman returned and was 24-for-37 for 266 yards. I expect them to build off that performance vs. a Denver defense which is allowing a high 26.7 points per game on the road. The Bears' defense certainly hasn't played as well as it has in year's past. However, the unit still has a lot of pride and I believe that they are capable of rising to the occasion for this "must win game" on their home field. Look for them to do just that as the Bears play their best game of the season, keep their slim playoff chances alive and improve to 15-4-1 ATS their last 20 games against teams from the AFC West. *Personal Favorite

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Burns 3 game executive report

PANTHERS

Game: New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers Game Time: 11/25/2007 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Carolina Panthers Reason: I'm taking the points with CAROLINA. Both teams have under-achieved this season and both come in with identical 4-6 records. The Panthers are playing at home and have dominated the series. Yet, due largely to the public's love affair with the Saints, New Orleans is laying a field goal on the road. I feel that gives us terrific value with the Panthers, who have gone 8-2 the last 10 series meetings with both losses coming by only a field goal. The Panthers defense has been decent, allowing 21.2 points per game (Saints allow 24.6) and the offense should get a major boost with the expected return of star wideout Steve Smith. Looking ahead to next week and we find that the Panthers have no reason to "look ahead" as they'll be hosting the 49ers. Conversely, while I don't expect them to get caught looking past this important game either, its still worth mentioning that the Saints have a date with division-leading Tampa on deck. In addition to dominating this rivalry, the Panthers have always thrived as underdogs in this range. In fact, they're a highly profitable 12-4-2 ATS the last 18 times that they were underdogs of four points or less. I expect those numbers to improve this afternoon.


49ERS

Game: San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals Game Time: 11/25/2007 4:05:00 PM Prediction: San Francisco 49ers Reason: I'm taking the points with SAN FRANCISCO. As poorly as the 49ers have played, I don't feel that they deserve to be double-digit underdogs to division rival Arizona. Two of the 49ers last three losses have come by four points or less and they defeated the Cardinals by three points when the teams met at San Francisco back in September. That marked the fourth straight game in this series (and sixth in seven) that was decided by 10 points or less, five of those games being decided by a touchdown or less. Yes, the Cardinals won again last week. However, they were also outgained 396-247 in the process. Additionally, they're a terrible 8-19-1 ATS (9-19 SU) the past 28 times they were coming off consecutive victories. Look for them to have their hands full again this afternoon as the 49ers deliver an inspired effort and hang within the big number

BENGALS

Game: Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals Game Time: 11/25/2007 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Cincinnati Bengals Reason: I'm playing on CINCINNATI. The Titans have come back to earth and have gone 0-2 SU/ATS their last two games, getting outscored by a 52-33 margin. In addition to playing back to back road games, the Titans are also playing on a short week, as last week's game came on Monday night. Note that the Titans, currently listed as very slight favorites, are a money-burning 4-9-1 ATS (5-9 SU) the past 14 times they were listed as road favorites of three points or less. While the Titans are banged-up and on the decline, the Bengals have been showing signs of improvement. Two weeks ago, they won at Baltimore. Last week, they lost to the Cardinals. However, a closer look reveals that they actually held an edge in first downs, time of possession and a significant 396-247 edge in total yards. Its been a disappointing season for the Bengals. However, they've got the better offense (Bengals average 24.6 points while Titans average 19.8) of these teams and their defense has allowed fewer points that Tennessee's defense the past two weeks. They've got a lot of pride and they don't like the Titans. The last time the teams met, Bengals QB Carson Palmer was 27-of-33 for 272 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions, en route to a 31-23 Cincinnati victory. Look for Palmer to bounce back from last week's multi-interception performance with another big effort here as the Bengals improve to 14-5-1 ATS their last 20 games played in the month of November.

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NELLYS (PAID and CONFIRMED )

3* St.Louis +3
1* Denver +1.5
1* Washington +3

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EXPERT: David Maloser
REASON FOR PICK: 6* TAMPA BAY over WASHINGTON

Time to get this one up earlier than usual so that you have some time to lock in a decent -3.


Last week we cashed an easy 4* with Tampa Bay in a matchup vs. Atlanta in which we noted how unusual the line was for the setting – the Buccaneers led in every key statistical category. Now fast forward to this week. The Bucs gain more yards per Rush Attempt than the Redskins and allow less; gain more yards per Pass Attempt and allow less; have a higher Passing Rating on offense and have allowed a lower Passing Rating on defense. And yet there is much more to this one, because a lot of the Washington numbers are not even close to the current realities.


Earlier in the season we wrote about the Redskin secondary, which was arguably the most talented in the league, with four first-round draft choices starting. And not too long ago the defense was near the top in the NFL in many categories. Not anymore. Having lost Carlos Rogers and Sean Taylor in recent weeks this unit is just a shadow of its formal self, and the numbers point it out. The defense has been absolutely shredded in the last four outings, and yes, part of that was going up against New England and Dallas. But they also struggled vs. the Jets (allowing them their season high of yards) and the Eagles, who range up 33 points and 379 yards in Washington. Last week we saw Dallas attack the deep middle with Terrell Owens throughout the game, and there was not much that the Redskins could do about it – not only has the talent level been lessened, but also the experience, which means that Gregg Williams has his hands tied in terms of blitz packages and other coverage schemes. They got to Tony Romo one time in 33 attempts.


This Washington flaw opens the door for Jeff Garcia, Ike Hilliard and Joey Galloway to have their way here. While getting little publicity Garcia has put together a 96.6 passer rating, completing 64.7 percent of his throws with an excellent ratio of 11 touchdowns vs. only three interceptions, and Hilliard and Galloway have combined for 87 catches. And while the Washington defensive numbers are better than they should be because of all of the time that Rogers and Taylor were playing, the Tampa Bay offense is better than what appears on paper, now that Michael Pittman is back in the lineup again. Pittman ran for 44 yards on 10 carries and also caught a couple of passes in last week’s easy win at Atlanta, and he can combine with Earnest Graham (back-to-back games of 100 plus yards) to create an outstanding one-two punch.


There are no issues with the Tampa defensive numbers – the Bucs are legitimately that good, especially with rookie Gaines Adams already becoming the kind of pass rusher they were hoping that he would be. They can have their way with a struggling Washington OL that not only lost Jon Jansen and Randy Thomas early in the season, but may be without Todd Wade here, after he injured his right knee against Dallas on Sunday. Even if Wade is able to go he will not be 100 percent, and missing practice time further impacts the chemistry of a group that has yet to develop any.


Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU and ATS when favored this season, losing only a fluky affair vs. Jacksonville in which the Bucs totally out-played the Jaguars (total offense was 385-219). They have beaten the spread by 52 points through 10 games, a sign of just how under-rated they are, and in this particular matchup the oddsmakers have come up far short.

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Larry Ness' NFL 24* (11-2 FB run since Nov 16!)
My 24* play is on the SD Chargers at 4:15 ET. For all their problems in '07, the Chargers are still very much alive in the pathetic AFC West. They are tied with the Broncos for first at 5-5 and have already beaten them in Denver (hosts Denver in Week 16). San Diego has also played well at home this year, going 4-1 SU and ATS. The Ravens on the other hand, are a mess! Last week's crushing loss to the Browns (called back onto the field for an OT period in which they eventually lost), was their fourth straight defeat (0-4 ATS). After a 4-2 start, Baltimore's postseason hopes are all but over, after going 13-3 in '06. Boller starts for the injured McNair this week and neither QB can play (Boller was sacked six times last week with a fumble and two INTs). McGahee has run for 100 yards in three of the last four games but as mentioned, Baltimore is 0-4 (team is 1-9 ATS on the year!). The offense just can't finish off drives, as Baltimore owns the NFL's worst red-zone TD perecntage in the league (9-of-28 or 32.1%). The defense still has talent, as the rush D ranks 2nd (78.0 YPG) but the 2ndy is hurting with Reed (back) and Rolle (illness) listed as probable plus McAlister (knee) listed as questionable. SD's Tomlinson has been unhappy for most of the year but he's still an awesome talent. QB Rivers has been a problem, as he's followed an excellent 2006 (22-9 ratio / 92.0 rating) with an 11-12 ratio and a QB rating of 76.5. He's accounted for 17 of the team's 18 turnovers, as the rest of the Chargers are almost turnover-free, which is why the team is plus-nine in TO margin (3rd-best). Baltimore by the way, is on pace for franchise-record 41 giveaways and is minus-nine in TO margin (3rd-worst). Let's not forget that last year in Week 4, the Ravens edged the Chargers in Baltimore, scoring nine points in the game's last 3:12, for a 16-13 win! The Ravens are just what the doctor ordered for San Diego. 24* SD Chargers.

Good Luck...Larry

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STEPHEN NOVER

Total of the Month


Sun, 11/25/07 - 4:05 PMStephen Nover | NFL Total
Double-Dime bet ARI / 217 SF Over 37.5

Analysis:
When these two teams met opening week the total was 47. Now it's nearly 10points lower.
The Cardinals ran for 161 yards against the 49ers. They could do it again. They also have Kurt Warner playing quarterback this time around against the 49ers instead of Matt Leinart. Warner is a playmaker , who likes to throw downfield. Leinart is more of a dink and dunk type. I'd much rather have the playmaker when going 'over' a total.
The Cardinals' offense has become more explosive.
Edgerrin James is a solid running back and Anquan Boldin is healthy again, teaming up with Larry Fitzgerald to give the Cardinals one of the best receiving tandems in football. In addition, tight end Leonard Pope has stepped up as a receiving target.
The 49ers have the worst offense in the NFL. They hired Ted Tollner to help coach the offense. I'm not a huge fan of Tollner, but expect the 49ers to try some different things and attack more. They've had arguably the worst play-calling in the NFL.
The Cardinals are missing two key defensive players. Bertrand Berry, their top pass rusher, is out. So is strong safety Adrian Wilson, their top defensive player. The Cardinals can't use some of their defensive packages without Wilson, perhaps the top blitzing safety in the league.

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ROB VENO

20* Blue Chip

St. Louis over 44.5

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J.Bonds

Sun, 11/25/07 - 1:00 | NFL Total
triple-dime bet210 STL / 209 SEA Over 44.5 Sportsbetting.com
Analysis:
The Seattle Seahawks hold a one-game lead over the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC West race and will definitely be ready to put up some points against a less-than-stellar St. Louis Rams defense. The Seawhawks passing game is also getting healthy again - bringing in the No. 8 ranked passing offense in the NFL.

St. Louis is riding a two-game winning streak and bring some momentum into this contest with star running back Stephen Jackson back in the lineup. The Rams have also gone over in 10 of their last 13 situations in coming off two straight road games. Seattle is in a similar situation with the OVER being 12-3 in the first of back-to-back road games.

Also a very important factor is Seattle getting out of the elements of the Pacific Northwest and into the friendly confines of a dome. The weather hasn't been great in Seattle over the last few weeks.

Finally - special teams should definitely be in our favor of allowing points to be put on the scoreboard - with two great kickers and punters that are netting less than 40 yards on average

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J.Bonds

Sun, 11/25/07 - 1:00 | NFL Total
triple-dime bet210 STL / 209 SEA Over 44.5 Sportsbetting.com
Analysis:
The Seattle Seahawks hold a one-game lead over the Arizona Cardinals in the NFC West race and will definitely be ready to put up some points against a less-than-stellar St. Louis Rams defense. The Seawhawks passing game is also getting healthy again - bringing in the No. 8 ranked passing offense in the NFL.

St. Louis is riding a two-game winning streak and bring some momentum into this contest with star running back Stephen Jackson back in the lineup. The Rams have also gone over in 10 of their last 13 situations in coming off two straight road games. Seattle is in a similar situation with the OVER being 12-3 in the first of back-to-back road games.

Also a very important factor is Seattle getting out of the elements of the Pacific Northwest and into the friendly confines of a dome. The weather hasn't been great in Seattle over the last few weeks.

Finally - special teams should definitely be in our favor of allowing points to be put on the scoreboard - with two great kickers and punters that are netting less than 40 yards on average

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LEM BANKER

Selections for Sunday (11/25)

Bears
Bengals
Bucs

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  Dr Bob

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3 Star Selection
***Buffalo 20 JACKSONVILLE (-8.0) 19
10:00 AM Pacific, 25-Nov-07
Buffalo is 7-1 ATS this season when not playing New England, including 6 straight non- Patriots spread wins and the Bills are still an underrated team. I can certainly understand why the Bills are considered a bad team given that theyve averaged just 4.8 yards per play while allowing 5.8 yppl this season, but those numbers dont reflect whats going on with the Bills currently. Buffalo was horrible defensively early in the season but a couple of injuries to starting defensive backs led to a new lineup and the Bills discovered that the backups are much better than the original starters were. In 6 games since CB Jabari Greer and S George Wilson joined the starting lineup the Bills have allowed 5.3 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive team. Buffalos J.P. Losman has played well since returning as the starting quarterback and he has been 0.1 yards per pass play better than average this season (6.1 yppp against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback) while Trent Edwards was 0.9 yppp worse than average in his 5 games. The rushing attack is much worse without Marshawn Lynch, as his 3.8 ypr is much better than the 2.7 ypr that the other running backs have averaged this season. I adjusted the Bills rushing attack 0.8 yards per rushing play downward for the absence of Lynch and I rate Buffalos attack at 0.7 yppl worse than average without Lynch. Jacksonville, however, is 0.5 yppl worse than average defensively this season (5.7 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team) and their offense is only 0.3 yppl better than average with David Garrard at quarterback, so the Jags are actually a below average team from the line of scrimmage. Garrard makes up for that by having not thrown an interception all season, but the Jaguars certainly are just barely better than an average team overall while Buffalo is barely worse than average thanks to their great special teams and their now better than average defense. My math model favors Jacksonville by only 3½ points in this game and the Jags apply to a 2-29 ATS subset of a 33-77-1 ATS home favorite letdown situation. The Bills were 5-1 straight up in their 6 games before facing the Patriots juggernaut last week, with the only other loss being by just 1 point to the 9-1 Cowboys, so getting more than a touchdown looks like a good play given the situation and the line value. I'll take Buffalo in a 3-Star Best Bet at +7½ points or more and for 2-Stars at +7 points.

2 Star Selection
**Oakland 17 KANSAS CITY (-5.5) 14
10:00 AM Pacific, 25-Nov-07
The Raiders are a much better team with Daunte Culpepper at quarterback in place of Josh McCown, as Culpepper has averaged a decent 5.8 yards per pass play (against teams that would combine to allow 5.9 yppp to an average quarterback) while throwing just 5 interceptions in 162 passes. McCown, meanwhile, averaged only 5.1 yppp despite facing teams that would combine to allow 6.6 yppp to an average QB and he threw 9 picks in just 122 pass attempts. Culpepper looked good in his return to the starting lineup last week, throwing for over 300 yards and averaging 7.2 yppp against the Vikings and the Raiders are just 0.1 yards per play worse than average offensively with Culpepper at quarterback. Kansas Citys defense has been solid all season and the Chiefs rate at 0.4 yppl better than average on that side of the ball, so they have a 0.5 yppl advantage over the Raiders attack. The Chiefs have turned their offense over to second year pro Brodie Croyle and he hasnt proven to be any worse than Damon Huard was in his 1½ games behind center. Croyle has averaged only 5.5 yppp on 79 pass plays (against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average QB) and the Chiefs running attack has gone from bad to dreadful with Larry Johnson sidelines the last two weeks. Kansas City has averaged only 3.2 ypr this season and the Chiefs averaged just 2.8 ypr in two games without Johnson (against teams that would combine to allow 4.4 ypr) and now backup Priest Holmes has suddenly retired. Rookie Kolby Smith takes over, but his 19 yards on 10 carries this season does not indicate that he’ll be any better than Holmes was (just 3.0 ypr before retiring). Kansas City has been 0.9 yppl worse than average offensively this season (4.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and that unit is even worse without Larry Johnson again this week. The Raiders have been a disappointment defensively this season, but their horrible run defense doesnt figure to hurt them too much against an equally bad Chiefs rushing attack and the Raiders defense (0.6 yppl worse than average) has a 0.5 yppl advantage over the Chiefs offense without Johnson which is the same advantage that KC had over Oaklands offense. The Raiders have an edge in special teams and my math model favors the Chiefs by just 2 points in this game. Oakland applies is just 2-8 and riding a 6 game losing streak but the Raiders continue to play hard and last weeks competitive loss at Minnesota is a good omen for the Raiders today. Teams that have lost 5 or more consecutive games are good bets if theyre coming off a loss of 7 points or less (a sign that they havent given up) and Oakland applies to a 76-26-1 ATS situation that is based on that premise. Ill take Oakland in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3½ points or more and for 3-Stars at +6 or more.

2 Star Selection
**Baltimore 17 SAN DIEGO (-9.0) 18
01:15 PM Pacific, 25-Nov-07
San Diego is certainly not a dominating team this season, being out-gained by an average of 305 yards at 5.3 yards per play to 355 yards at 5.6 yppl (after taking out quarterback spikes and kneel downs), and even the Chargers compensated numbers (0.1 yppl better than average offensively and 0.1 yppl worse than average defensively) are just mediocre. Baltimore looks like a bad team right now, as the Ravens have lost 4 straight games and are just 1-9 ATS for the season. Baltimores offense is indeed bad, averaging only 4.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team, but the Ravens defensive issues in recent weeks are likely to be a thing of the past with CB Samari Rolle and Chris McAlister back together in the secondary. Rolle has missed 6 games due to epilepsy, but hes returning to the lineup this week while McAlister should play this week with a bum ankle after returning from a 3 game absence last week. Safety Ed Reed got hurt last week, but he is also expected to play this week. Baltimores run defense has been great all season (3.0 ypr allowed to teams that would average 4.1 ypr against an average team) and the pass defense was very good too in the 3 games in which both Rolle and McAlister have played allowing just 5.4 yards per pass play in weeks 1, 2 and 6 to quarterbacks that would combine to average 5.6 yppp against an average defense). Baltimores pass defense has been 0.9 yppp worse than average in 7 games in which either Rolle or McAlister was out, so they are certainly not going to be as bad as their poor season numbers indicate. Baltimores defense is 0.4 yppl better than average for the season, but that unit has been 0.6 yppl better than average with their secondary intact and they have a pretty good edge over San Diegos offense especially if the Chargers try to run against the Ravens stout defensive front. My math model favors San Diego by 7 points if McAlister and Reed play as expected and by 9 points if one of them doesnt so the line is fair at the very worst and Baltimore applies to a number of good situations. The best of the situations is a 19-1 ATS subset of a 59-19-1 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation and Ill take Baltimore in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7½ points or more and for 3-Stars at +10 points or more.

Strong Opinion
Minnesota 20 NY GIANTS (-7.0) 21
10:00 AM Pacific, 25-Nov-07
It looks like the oddsmakers are making a little too much of the injury to star rookie running back Adrian Peterson. Peterson had been incredible for Minnesota before getting hurt (1081 yards at 6.4 ypr), but the Vikings have a great offensive line and a very good backup running back in Chester Taylor, who has run for 468 yards at 5.6 ypr. The absence of Peterson is only worth about 1 point and the Vikings should certainly not be a 7 point underdog in this game. New York is only 0.1 yards per play better than average offensively (5.3 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and the best part of their offense a rushing attack that has averaged 4.6 ypr against teams that would allow just 3.9 ypr to an average team. However, running against the Vikings is not something that is easily done (Minnesota yields just 3.0 ypr) and Eli Manning is below average again this season (5.9 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback). The Vikings are 0.2 yppl worse than average defending the pass, but the Giants are at a disadvantage overall against the Minnesota defense. The Vikings offense has been 0.5 yppl better than average this season, but I rate that attack at just 0.2 yppl better than average without Peterson and with Tarvaris Jackson at quarterback. The Giants are only 0.3 yppl better than average defensively and these teams are about even overall from the line of scrimmage. The Giants do have an advantage in projected turnovers but Minnesota has an edge in special teams and my math model favors New York by just 2 points in this game and the Vikings have a solid 56% chance of covering at +7 points based on the historical predictability of my math model. Ill consider Minnesota a Strong Opinion in this game at +7 points and Ill take Minnesota in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7½ points or more (at -115 odds or better).

Strong Opinion
San Francisco 15 ARIZONA (-10.5) 20
01:05 PM Pacific, 25-Nov-07
San Francisco is now officially the worst team in the NFL after losing at home to the Rams, but the 49ers qualify in a very good 227-111-9 ATS contrary indicator and a 24-1 ATS subset of a 138-67-3 ATS situation. Arizona, meanwhile, applies to a negative 34-90-1 ATS situation and the 49ers are the strongest technical play of the week. San Franciscos defense is good enough to keep them in the game, but their offense is horrendous and my math model favors Arizona by 12½ points. The situations are certainly strong enough to give up a bit of line value but Im just not eager to pull the trigger on the Niners in a Best Bet. Ill consider San Francisco a Strong Opinion at +10 points or more on the basis of the strong situations and indicators.

Strong Opinion
Under (41) - PITTSBURGH (-16.0) 24 Miami 10
05:30 PM Pacific, 26-Nov-07
Miamis offense went from better than average to a bit worse than average when quarterback Trent Green was injured and then the attack went from worse than average to dreadful starting week 9 when star running back Ronnie Brown was hurt. Backup Jessie Chatman is a decent runner, but he hasnt been able to match Browns 5.1 ypr and Chatman hasnt come close to making up for Browns contributions in the passing games. Brown still leads the Dolphins in receiving yards despite missing the last 3 games and he was the NFLs best pass catching running back when he got hurt, averaging 8.5 yards per pass thrown to him. Chatman, meanwhile, has averaged only 4.4 yards on the 28 passes thrown to him and the difference is about 3 points per game. The difference in the running contributions between the two backs works about to about 2 points per game and the Dolphins have averaged just 4.1 yards per play and 9 points in 3 games without Brown. Miami has turned over the reigns of this broken down offense to rookie John Beck and he appears to be no better or worse than Cleo Lemon was in Lemons 5 games at the helm which is to say not very good. My math model favors Pittsburgh by 14½ points and I have situations going both for and against the Dolphins in this game. Ill lean slightly with Miami and I would have made the Under a Best Bet here if not for Pittsburghs tendency to go Over at home (39-12-1 Over). Miami has gone easily Under in all 3 games without Brown and his absence hasnt been properly adjusted for in the total. I will consider the UNDER a Strong Opinion at 40 points or higher.

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POINT TRAIN’S 6-UNIT BEST BET NFL UNDERDOG WINNER

Baltimore Ravens (+9.5) over SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Rating: 6 units

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Baltimore (+) over San Diego at 4:15 pm EST In a battle of underachievers, the Chargers host the Ravens to see what team can continue to play worse than their talent suggests they should. Expect that team to be San Diego, as Baltimore keeps this game within reach throughout. Baltimore matches up very well with the Chargers, as its 16-13 win in last year’s meeting would indicate. San Diego, now more than ever, relies heavily on its running game. And the Ravens simply don’t allow opponents to run the ball. Tomlinson was limited to just 98 yards on 26 carries in last year’s tilt and was held out of the end zone, a rare occurrence for Tomlinson last year. He won’t get much more this year as Baltimore is second in the NFL with just 78 rushing yards allowed per game. With Tomlinson not being able to run the ball, that puts the burden on Rivers. He has proven incapable of doing that this year. He has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns this year and he’s completed 55 percent or less of his passes the last three weeks. The Ravens offense is nothing special but it should be able to move the ball against San Diego’s 24th-ranked defense. The Chargers have given up yards through the air and they’ve given up yards on the ground. They really haven’t been able to stop anything this year. Don’t expect them to start in this game. The Baltimore offense will do just enough to keep this game close. Fly with the Ravens in this one.



POINT TRAIN’S NFL ROAD WARRIOR WINNER

Houston Texans(+3.5) over CLEVELAND BROWNS

Rating: 3 units

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Houston (+) over Cleveland at 1:00 pm EST The Browns have been playing with fire all year long and have somehow managed not to burn themselves. Well they’re going to get scalded this weekend by the visiting Texans. Expect this game to be very similar to Houston’s game with New Orleans last week. The Texans, armed with Matt Schaub and the return of Andre Johnson, threw for 287 total yards and two scores, with Johnson hauling in 120 of those yards and one of those scores. Expect even more yards and even more touchdowns in this one. Cleveland is 31st in the NFL in pass defense with nearly 270 passing yards allowed per game. On the other side of the ball, look for the underrated Houston defense to give Derek Anderson and the rest of the Cleveland offense fits, much like they did to Drew Brees and New Orleans. Brees had thrown for nine touchdown and just two interceptions in his previous three games but was forced into two picks by the Texans secondary while throwing just one TD. Houston has won two straight both outright and ATS over Cleveland. Expect that streak to reach three in a row in this one. The Browns have had some extremely fortunate bounces go their way this year but their luck runs out this week. Giddy-up with the Texans.

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Trey Johnsons 100% NLF Fantastic Favorite!

219 San Diego (-) vs Baltimore at 4:15 PM EST

Sure San Diego is one of the biggest surprises of the season. Sure they continue to under-achieve game after game. It just doesn’t matter today. The Raven offense is pathetic. Averaging 12.6 ppg on the road they don’t scare anyone. Against a Charger defense that is allowing only 15.6 ppg at home the Ravens are in for a long day. Baltimore has been terrible against the number this year posting an atrocious 1-9 ATS mark. They are 0-7 ATS against conference opponents and 1-7 ATS on grass fields. San Diego isn’t the same team as last year but they have still put together a nice 4-1 ATS mark at home. Against Baltimore everyone looks good. San Diego rolls to the easy win in this one.

Play San Diego (-)




Trey's 88% Play Against Crusher of the Month!

#218 Arizona (-) vs San Francisco at 4:05 PM EST

San Francisco will be playing in their third road game in four weeks. Offensively they haven’t been able to do anything this year. San Francisco has lost eight straight games. The 49er offense has managed an average of 8.5 points in their last seven games. With a beat up offensive line and terrible QB play they are headed straight to their ninth loss in a row. San Fran is 2-8 ATS this season. They are 1-7 ATS versus conference opponents and 1-4 ATS versus division opponents. Arizona is a solid 3-1 ATS at home and 4-1 ATS in dome games. The Cardinals have dominated San Fran posting a 4-1 SU/ATS mark over the last three seasons. Arizona gets the win and cover again today against the hapless 49ers.

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