Thanksgiving Consensus Report:

Thanksgiving Consensus Report:

Scott Spreitzer's NFL 25* Thanksgiving Day Beatdown! *20-8, 71% NFL Run!
I'm taking the points with the Lions. Packers' lines are often slanted a bit, thanks to the public's infatuation with future hall-of-famer, Brett Favre. But now, thanks to Green Bay's incredible start and Detroit's back-to-back losses, the value is squarely on the side of the home pup. First of all, when capping this game, check out GB's schedule. It's been a soft ride, catching mediocre opposition in the right spots for the most part. I give the Pack and especially Favre the respect they deserve, but this may be the first time this season when they are the team in the tough spot. It is the first time they've been road-chalk with Mike McCarthy at the helm. I don't like their small-ish offensive line in this one, matching up against the very capable Cory Redding and Shaun Rogers. One of these two DTs will have to be double-teamed which leaves the other to wreak havoc on the GB passing game. Offensively, Detroit is loaded at WR, giving Kitna four targets to throw to. Green Bay safety Nick Collins is not expected to play and the Packers are short on quality depth in the secondary. I believe Kitna will pick them apart. The Lions have handled Favre in recent seasons. This time, the Lions have the supporting cast to break through with a win over their division rival. Add it up and we have a strong play on the Lions, plus points on Thanksgiving day. Here's to a great and winning holiday. Thanks! GL! Scott.

BIG AL's 100% (13-0) 5* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH (Thursday)
At 12:30 pm, our 5* NFL Game of the Month is on the Detroit Lions plus the points over Green Bay. On Sunday, the Packers won 31-17 over Carolina, but Green Bay was outgained in yardage by the Panthers, and victorious simply because Carolina turned the ball over four times (vs. zero turnovers by the Pack). Turnovers, of course, are the most random element of football wagering, so Green Bay was indeed fortunate to have won its fifth straight game (and fourth straight ATS). But now, Green Bay falls into two negative systems of mine (2-24 ATS and 0-13 ATS), while Detroit is a play under a 78-43 system off its back to back losses (at Arizona and home vs. the Giants). Specifically, our 78-43 angle plays on winning teams at home off a home loss, if our home team is not favored by 9+ points. And our 13-0 angle plays on certain winning teams at home, who are not favored by 4+ points, if they're matched up against a foe off back to back wins and covers. Detroit has lost its last three meetings with the Packers, and the revenging team is 17-8 ATS since 1980 in Detroit's Turkey Day games. Finally, with such a short work week, Detroit has a huge advantage by playing its previous game at home, and not having to travel. And the Lions are 100% ATS since 1980 on Thanksgiving when coming off a home game. Take Detroit. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my College Football Winners on Thursday and Friday.

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DR CHAD

5 units on GREEN BAY and INDY.
3 units on ARIZONA STATE.

FRIDAY.. 3rd 7 unit ever (1-0-1) NEBRASKA +4 and a half.
5 units Mississippi and Texas A & M.
3 units COLORADO ST. and TOLEDO

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BIG AL's 100% (13-0) 5* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH (Thursday)

At 12:30 pm, our 5* NFL Game of the Month is on the Detroit Lions plus the points over Green Bay. On Sunday, the Packers won 31-17 over Carolina, but Green Bay was outgained in yardage by the Panthers, and victorious simply because Carolina turned the ball over four times (vs. zero turnovers by the Pack). Turnovers, of course, are the most random element of football wagering, so Green Bay was indeed fortunate to have won its fifth straight game (and fourth straight ATS). But now, Green Bay falls into two negative systems of mine (2-24 ATS and 0-13 ATS), while Detroit is a play under a 78-43 system off its back to back losses (at Arizona and home vs. the Giants). Specifically, our 78-43 angle plays on winning teams at home off a home loss, if our home team is not favored by 9+ points. And our 13-0 angle plays on certain winning teams at home, who are not favored by 4+ points, if they're matched up against a foe off back to back wins and covers. Detroit has lost its last three meetings with the Packers, and the revenging team is 17-8 ATS since 1980 in Detroit's Turkey Day games. Finally, with such a short work week, Detroit has a huge advantage by playing its previous game at home, and not having to travel. And the Lions are 100% ATS since 1980 on Thanksgiving when coming off a home game. Take Detroit. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss my College Football Winners on Thursday and Friday.

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Dr Bob NCAA Football

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3* Arizona St +3.5, 2* at +3 or worse.

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Re: Thanksgiving Consensus Report:

Johnathan Stone

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Usc -3

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Neri Sports

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3* Az State

2* Detroit
2* Dallas
1* Atlanta

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Northcoast


2 Dallas -14
Top Usc U 49 Marq.
Top G B -3- Marq.
Reg G B U 47
Reg Atl. + 11-
Reg Dallas U 47
Reg Alt. U 41
Reg U S C -3

Uncle Phil's Play
3 G B -3

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Gold Medal Club

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NFL: All rated 15*

Green Bay -1.5 First half
OVER 23.5

Dallas UNDER 48

Indy -11.5
OVER 41

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Re: Thanksgiving Consensus Report:

lem banker


det-----jets-----at

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Re: Thanksgiving Consensus Report:

Marc Lawrence

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Det
Boys
Atlanta

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wunderdog

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Game: New York Jets at Dallas (Thursday 11/22 4:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on New York Jets +14
This is a potential letdown spot for both teams. The Jets are coming off a big win vs. the Steelers. Meanwhile the Cowboys are off a tough divisional game vs. Washington with their biggest remaining game of the year on-deck (next Thursday vs. the 9-1 Packers). That game vs. the Pack will in all liklihood determine homefield advantage for the playoffs in the NFC. It would be very difficult to expect the Cowboys to be up for this game vs. the Jets. The Cowboys showed that they are susceptible to the letdown (remember the MNF game vs. Buffalo prior to the Cowboys' game vs. New England?). While most view New York as a !BAD! team, we think they are not so terrible. We saw a change earlier this season in Buffalo when they were forced to use Edwards at QB, and we are now seeing a change in the Jets under Clemens. It would be hard to think the Jets defense could keep them in the game, but this team held the Steelers to 16 points. The fact is the Jets have been in every game they have played outside of the opener vs. New England. Save that game, the Jets have played !GOOD! and have been within 11 points of everyone on their schedule. The last two weeks vs. !GOOD2! teams (Washington and Pittsburgh), Clemens was at the helm and the Jets scored evenly 39-39. One could argue they are one of the most underrated teams in the NFL right now, and getting 14 from an opponent that is likely to be sleeping, provides a lot of value. Double-digit road underdogs vs. a team performing very well have covered at a 74% clip including 1-0 this season. Five teams have won games outright this season as a 7+ point underdog and three of the five have covered the next game, so don't expect a Jets letdown, expect the opposite on the national stage. J-E-T-S-Jets-Jets-Jets!

Game: Indianapolis at Atlanta (Thursday 11/22 8:15 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Atlanta +11.5
Pick: 4 units on Game Total UNDER 41 -110


Indianpolis has fallen on very hard times. After starting 7-0 and 6-1 ATS, they lost a very important game to New England at home. That was the start of a downward spiral that includes injuries to key players such as Marvin Harrison, Dallas Clark, Anthjony Gonzalez and Tony Ugoh. And, other players have not playing like themselves (Manning, Vinatieri, Clark). After the New England loss, they went on to lose to San Diego and had a major scare vs. Kansas City last week. Marvin Harrison will again be out and this past week, the Colts lost Dwight Freeney for the season. This is a repeat of last season when they started out invincible only to post a 2-4 mark from mid November to mid December. This team will be back come playoffs but right now they just aren't right. Peyton Manning has thrown 7 interceptions the past two weeks to just two touchdowns. And the running game has also faltered. After averaging 138 yards per game through their first eight games, the Colts gained just 141 total yards on the ground in their last two games. The Falcons are off a terrible loss to Tampa Bay. They bring back Joey Harrington which is actually a good thing as Leftwhich has been even worse. Their only wins this season have come with Harrington under center. With their stars underperforming, riddled with key injuries, and having a short week to heal and correct things, should the Colts be laying double digits on the road? We don't think so. Yes, it's scary to back Atlanta, especially after their performance last week. But, we track a system that backs certain teams after a really bad performance that's in play here. This system has hit a 61% rate long term and it's 30-16 (65%) this year! Atlanta has played solid defense all season long. They are ranked 15th in defense overall and have kept four opponents to 16 points or less. The most points they have given up was last week thanks to a rare defensive touchdown. The Colts, as mentioned, are trending downward on offense. While scoring 32 points per game in their first seven games, they have averaged just 18 per game their last three. With their offense sagging, and still suffering from injuries, we expect their offense to again be sub-par. Our computer matchup for this game predicts 39 points. We agree that this one will come in UNDER the posted total. The Colts are 6-0 UNDER the pat three seasons on the road vs. non-conference foes. The Falcons are 18-7 UNDER at home the pat two seasons including 9-1 UNDER after having lost 4+ games out of their last six. We'll take the big double digit home dog in this one as well as the UNDER.

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wunderdog ncaa football

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Game: U S C at Arizona State (Thursday 11/22 8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Arizona State +3
With Oregon's loss to Arizona, Arizona State holds their fate in their own hands. They lead the Pac 10 with jus tone loss. If they can win their final two games, both at home, they secure their BCS spot. So, they are sufficiently motivated to win this game on Thanksgiving. The Sun Devils are undefeated at home and 5-1 ATS. At home they are winning by an average score of 38.5 to 17. They haven't fared well against USC in the win-loss column but they have competed, having covered the last two games ATS vs. much superior Trojans teams. Last season they lost by just a touchdown in Southern California as a 19 point underdog. ASU has had two weeks to prepare for this all-important game and they are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games coming off a bye. USC has won two in a row after falling to Oregon. But, the Trojans are 0-6 ATS this year and last following two straight wins. Arizona State is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 at home off a road win. Dennis Erickson, despite what you think of him, is very tough in close games. Teams he has coached are 13-4 ATS when the line is -3 to +3. He's also 31-14 ATS in all home games including 221-10 ATS vs. conference foes. We like Arizona State to win this one or keep it very close.

Game: Nebraska at Colorado (Friday 11/23 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Nebraska +4

Colorado's had an up-and down season. They put together back-to-back stinkers early in the year to Arizona State and Florida State but then turned around and beat Miami Ohio by 42 and shocked Oklahoma. They have lost four of their last five games, allowing 35.6 points per game. Nebraska has also had an up-and-down season, starting 4-1 and then losing five in a row before beating Kansas State 73-31 last week. So, these teams aren't that different. The thing that scares us about backing the team laying points here is that they are scoring just 24 points per game on the year (19.8 at home) while giving up 27.5 per game at home and over 37 per game in their last three games. This defense is crummy and getting worse. And, the offense, under a freshman QB, doesn't have the firepower to put up a lot. Nebraska's defense is also bad but they have some momentum. Teams allowing 35+ points per game coming off a 21+ point win are 34-8 ATS the past ten seasons. And the Buffs are 0-8 ATS when coming off a road game under Dan Hawkins. We think Nebraska has at least an equal shot at winning this game so we'll back them with the points cushion.

Game: Mississippi at Mississippi State (Friday 11/23 12:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Mississippi +6.5

If you look at the records, this looks like a no-brainer win for Miss State. They are 6-5 and have a couple quality wins vs. league foes while Ole Miss was shut-out during SEC play with nothing to show in the win column. But we actually feel that the difference between these teams is not that great. Ole Miss has been competitive all season long. They were within 10 of LSU with under three minutes to go, lost to Florida by 6, Alabama by 3, Missouri by 13, and Auburn by 14. They, for the most part, have played great and been very competitive. Miss State is 1-8 ATS in home games off a loss to a conference rival the last three years, and 5-16 ATS in home games after gaining 100 yards or less. They are also just 5-15 ATS after a game where they have had a turnover margin of -3 or worse. Road dogs of 3.5 to 10 points returning 8+ starters on offense have covered 65% of the time (65-35) when pitted against a defense that has returned five or fewer starters. We will ride the dog in this one, as the intense rivalry is the equalizer.

Game: Toledo at Bowling Green (Friday 11/23 2:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 3 units on Toledo +7

This line started at 4.5 and has climbed to the magic 7 number as the money pours in on Bowling Green. BG has won three in a row in convincing fashion while Toledo is off a 21 point loss. But, we think this is an overreaction to one game for Toledo. That loss was a tough road game against a better opponent. Prior to that loss, they had won three straight SU and ATS, averaging 55 points per game. This is a big-time offense that can surpass what Bowling Green can do. Defense is another matter as BG has a clear advantage there. We just feel 7 points is too much considering BG is 1-10 ATS in their last eleven home games. We like the Rockets plus the points.

Game: Boise State at Hawaii (Friday 11/23 9:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 4 units on Boise State +3

There is obviously a lot at stake in this game between two 10-win teams. The outright conference Championship will be decided as well as a potential BCS berth. Boise State is no stranger to the big stage. They have a career 52-3 mark in WAC games and this team is stocked year after year. The last three weeks they have really turned it up a notch, winning by a combined 152-21 margin. Outside of their game vs. Nevada and loss to Washington, the Broncos have not been challenged. If you take out that game with Nevada they are allowing only 13.4 ppg. The big question mark for Hawaii is the status and effectiveness of QB Colt Brennan. He was forced to sit out almost the entire game last week with a concussion. Boise State has not had trouble putting away good offensive teams, as they are 18-4 ATS in their last 24 games vs. teams that average 425+ yards per game. Meanwhile Hawaii has struggled against teams that average 6.25+ yards per play as they are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 vs. such opponents. Hawaii has been an escape artist this season, as they have had four near-misses, winning by margins of 1, 2, 7 and another game in OT. Boise State is 25-8 ATS the past decade vs. winning teams including 15-4 ATS vs. teams scoring 31+ ppg. They have better defense, just as much offense, and we expect they do what they do in big games - win!

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jeff bonds

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Thu, 11/22/07 - 8:00 PMJeff Bonds | CFB Side
double-dime bet110 Arizona St. 3.5 (-110) Bodog vs 109 Southern Cal
Analysis: Arizona State is enjoying a great season and I'm very impressed that they bounced back from a disappointing game against Oregon to beat UCLA two weeks ago.

This game is likely to determine the Pac-10 representative in the Rose Bowl, as the Oregon Ducks are down and out without QB Dennis Dixon.

I really think the difference in this matchup is the quarterback position and from what I've seen on TV and in person - is a definitive edge in favor of Arizona State. Rudy Carpenter is 20-8 as the starting quarterback.

ASU head coach Dennis Erickson is also a dominant 49-15-1 in the month of November, which should nullify the edge of USC leader Pete Carroll's undefeated November record.

I love that we're getting more than a FG on national TV in a conference that certainly doesn't have a dominant force this season. Just make sure you wait and let the public move the line more in Arizona State's favor

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greg shaker

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Thu, 11/22/07 - 8:15 PMGreg Shaker | NFL Total
triple-dime bet108 ATL / 107 IND Over 42.0 BetUS
Analysis: NFL: Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons - Over 41 -110 | Unit Value: 3 DIMES
Game Date: 11/22/2007
Note: This line is as low as it is due to the inept offense of the Falcons and they recent low scoring of the Colts. But there are plenty of reasons why this game will fly OVER the total. We can start with the fact that this is a short week for these teams, having played on Sunday. That lends itself to higher than usual scoring games because both teams are ailing quite a bit on the D side of the ball. It does take more time for D Players to become more ready to play while nursing the knocks that the NFL provides. It is one of the reasons why Thanksgiving games tend to go OVER the mark more times than not. The Colts are not scoring nearly as much as they have been and the reasons are certainly Two-fold. The lack of some key offesnive personel is one with Marvin Harrison not being in the lineup along with Anthony Gonzalez and tight end Bryan Fletcher. Tony Dungy, "I think we'll get some guys back this week and I think we'll get a few more after that. I think Anthony Gonzalez, Tony Ugoh and Bryan Fletcher could all be back this week." Manning has also faced more pressure with left tackle Tony Ugoh (neck) out, and he threw six interceptions in a loss at San Diego two weeks ago, primarily because of that. We can look at the last 3 games that the Colts have played, New England, San Diego, and KC. These three are some of the best defensive units in the League. Atlanta is not, allowing over 21 per contest against all competition. That competition is not the who's who of the NFL. Indy is. They Falcons scored just 7 last week but 4 TO's costed them dearly and Harrington will get the nod this week. He was 16-of-20 for 139 yards and a touchdown in relief of Leftwich last week, and looked pretty good indeed. Being at home on the National TV screen should motivate this team to play as well as they can and I do think they help bring this total OVER. This is a low number considering who we have on the field and the situation at hand.

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Trey Johnson 10*

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#107 Indianapolis (-) over Atlanta at 8:15 PM EST


Without offensive weapons Marvin Harrison, Anthony Gonzalez, tight end Bryan Fletcher, tight end Dallas Clark, and left tackle Tony Ugoh Peyton Manning and the Colts struggled. This week all should be back except for Harrison. Off one of the most miserable performances of his career look for Manning and the finally healthy Colts offense to explode against this undermanned Falcons defense.

The Colts steady defensive play has helped to minimize the damage while its offense has sputtered. The Colts defense is ranked second I the NFL, allowing 266.3 yards per game. They haven’t allowed more than 24 points this year, and are allowing 15.9 per game. Two weeks ago the Colts allowed 177 yards to the Chargers and would have won that game if not for two special teams’ touchdowns, and a rare field goal miss my Vinatieri. Last week without Dwight Freeney, out for the year with a foot injury, the defense allowed KC 11 first downs and 234 yards of offense.

Since 1992 the Colts are 6-1 ATS against NFC South opponents including a 3-0 ATS mark this season. They are 4-1 ATS in their last five dome games and 4-1 ATS in their last five on turf. Atlanta is 3-10 ATS against winning teams over the last three seasons including a 1-2 ATS mark this season. Since 1992 Indy is 3-0 ATS versus Atlanta including a 1-0 ATS mark in Atlanta.
The Colts rebound huge with a blowout win tonight!
Play Indianapolis (-)

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Burns NFL

LIONS (+3 or better)

Game: Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions Game Time: 11/22/2007 12:30:00 PM Prediction: Detroit Lions Reason: I'm taking the points with DETROIT. The Lions have looked somewhat like the "Lions of old" when playing on the road this season. However, they've been an entirely different team here at Ford Field. In fact, despite last week's setback to the Giants, they're still an impressive 4-1 SU (3-1-1 ATS) in five home games this season. Of course, the Packers have been winning both at home and on the road. They haven't fared very well on Thursday's historically though, going 1-5 ATS their last six Thursday games, and they'll be facing an extremely hungry opponent this afternoon. While the game is a very big one for the Packers, who are still playing for top spot in the conference, its a HUGE one for the Lions. If they can win, they've still got a shot for the division title and put themselves in excellent position for a Wildcard spot. However, if they lose, they have no shot at the division title and the Wildcard starts to look pretty "iffy." While the Packers managed a win here last season, they’re still a money-burning 6-14 ATS (8-12 SU) their last 20 visits to Detroit. It should be mentioned that the Packers have a date with Dallas on deck, the NFC's version of the Colts vs. Patriots. Its also interesting to note that the Lions are 11-5-1 in 17 all-time Thanksgiving Day games against the Packers. In addition to attempting to solidify their playoff chances, the Lions will be anxious to prove to the world that they are a different team than in year's past. Unlike the Packers, the Lions rarely get a chance to play on National TV and they've dropped three straight Thanksgiving Day games. This year's team is significantly better and I expect them to prove it to the world this afternoon. *Main Event

UNDER jets/cowboys (46 or better)

Game: New York Jets vs. Dallas Cowboys Game Time: 11/22/2007 4:15:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Jets and Cowboys to finish UNDER the number. The Cowboys have been a high-scoring team this season and come off a high-scoring game vs. the Redskins. However, a closer look reveals that last week's game wasn't all that high-scoring until the teams exploded in the fourth quarter. Regardless, that result has helped cause this afternoon's over/under line to be even higher than it normally would be, giving us excellent value on the UNDER. This week, the Cowboys will face a Jets' defense that is playing its best football of the season. Last week, the Jets held the powerful Steelers, a team which had averaged 31 their previous three games, to a mere 16 points. That was the third time in the last five games that the Jets had held their opponent to 16 points or less. While the Jets defense comes off one of its best games, the offense hasn't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard. After "exploding" for 19 points last week, the Jets are now averaging 14 points the past three weeks. After last week's final score stayed below the total, the Jets have now seen the UNDER go a solid 41-29-3 (56%) the last 73 times they faced a team with a winning record during the second half of the season. During the same stretch, the Cowboys have seen the UNDER go a highly profitable 33-15-1 when facing a team with a losing record during the second half of the season. The Cowboys one weakness has been a suspect secondary. However, the Jets aren't exactly equipped to take advantage of that weakness, at the best of times, and they're expected to be without top wideout Laveranues Coles. That means we can expect an especially heavy dose of running back Thomas Jones. While frequent running plays will help to chew up the clock, it should also play right into the Cowboys' strength, as their defense ranks fourth in the league against the run, allowing just 84.3 yards per game. These teams have met just once this millennium (at the Meadowlands in 2003) and they combined for only 23 points. The last time they met at Dallas (1999) they managed 43. Look for another defensive affair this afternoon as the final combined score falls beneath the big number. *Thursday Total of the Year

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burns college football

OVER usc/asu (51 or better)

Game: USC vs. Arizona St. Game Time: 11/22/2007 8:00:00 PM Prediction: over Reason: I'm playing on USC and Arizona State to finish OVER the total. Both teams have excellent defenses and both have been profitable "under" teams this season. However, both teams also have put up big points on offense and the earlier results have caused this evening's number to be generously low. The Trojans are averaging 31 points (425 total yards) per game one the road while the Sun Devils are averaging 38.5 points (448 total yards) per game at home. In fact, they've eclipsed the 30 point mark in ALL six of their games here. Looking at the series history and we find that the last four meetings have produced a minimum of 49 points and that seven meetings this millennium averaged a whopping 59.3 points. The over/under lines were all higher than this evening's low number. Even last season, with rules in place to decrease scoring, the over/under line was in the mid 50s. Both teams have had an extra week off. That's worth noting as that gives Sun Devil's quarterback Rudy Carpenter a chance to heal his injured thumb. Coach Erickson says that "..the swelling is down...he is throwing the ball well..." That's important as Carpenter has completed 63 percent of his passes for 2,528 yards and 20 touchdowns. He's already joined Andrew Walter and Jake Plummer as the only Sun Devils to throw for 7000 yards. The extra week also gives Trojans' QB John David Booty time to further recover from an earlier broken finger. When asked about Booty's finger, Coach Carol said: "...He's throwing the ball a lot, and we've been able to use him as much as we needed to get him prepared. ... He's ready to go, and we have no issues with his hands at all." Additionally, the fact that the Trojans are coming off a bye is also worth mentioning as they've seen the OVER go 4-1 the last five times they came off a bye. Look for more of the same this evening as the final combined score finishes below the relatively low number. *PAC 10 Total of the Year

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Peter King

Green Bay Packers (9-1) at Detroit Lions (6-4)

Eating habits nationwide change. I know they do in my house. We usually eat Thanksgiving dinner at 2 or 3 if we're home for it, and this year, I've not-so-subtlely pushed dinner back to 4:30ish. I'm not going to miss the first meaningful Lions game since Alex Karras menaced foes at Tiger Stadium ... and I'm not going to miss whatever it is Brett Favre's going to do next.
Packers 23, Lions 10



New York Jets (2-8) at Dallas Cowboys (9-1)

The Bill Parcells Alumni Bowl. One of Parcells' last meaningful picks, Jets pass-rusher Shaun Ellis, chases the no-name Parcells installed at quarterback last year, Tony Romo. I don't like Ellis' chances to leave much of an imprint on the elusive Romo.
Cowboys 34, Jets 13



Indianapolis Colts (8-2) at Atlanta Falcons (3-7)

The sleep-inducing qualities of turkey are overrated, as I learned this week on Wikipedia. There is more tryptophan in cheddar cheese than turkey. Then again, if there was caffeine in turkey we'd still be ready for a nap by about the third Falcon turnover in the third game of a food-and-Heineken Light-filled day. Poor Cris Collinsworth, by the way. Not that he has to miss Thanksgiving with his four children, but that he has to enliven this game for the NFL Network.
Colts 30, Falcons 6



Tennessee Titans (6-4) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-7)

Marvin Lewis has coached 75 NFL games. Take a guess what his record is. Nine over .500? Eleven? Try one. He's 38-37, in danger this week of evening the ledger piloting one of the most disappointing teams in the league. I see him preparing for a nice little housecleaning. By the way, Vince Young threw the ball very well in Denver on Monday night. Maybe that quad strain is the best thing that could have happened to his pocket presence.
Titans 19, Bengals 15



Houston Texans (5-5) at Cleveland Browns (6-4)

I half-expect Elvin Bethea to blindside Brian Sipe in this one. Somehow, Mario Williams chasing Derek Anderson (and not catching him, in my opinion) doesn't conjure up the same visions. This is a game the Browns have to have if they have designs on that sixth playoff seed.
Browns 27, Texans 13



Oakland Raiders (2-8) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-6)

Chiefs have won nine straight in the series. Real killers, there. Whoa. The margins of those nine wins: 7, 3, 7, 1, 6, 4, 4, 11 and 2 points. You get that the recent history, plus Warren Sapp's apt reaming-out of the Raiders' defense, is going to make for another close one in Arrowhead.
Chiefs 20, Raiders 16



Seattle Seahawks (6-4) at St. Louis Rams (2-8)

The Rams will finish 5-11, may save Scott Lenihan's job and will totally confound draftniks who want them to get in position to pick Howie Long's son to fix their defense. (It's never too early to talk draft, is it?) They also might win this game. They've scored 50 points and had 45 very welcome carries from Steven Jackson in their nice little two-game winning streak ... with both wins coming on the road. This team's not dead.
Seahawks 28, Rams 25



Minnesota Vikings (4-6) at New York Giants (7-3)

"That is a very, very costly loss for us,'' Tom Coughlin said the other day, when it was determined that pass-rusher Mathias Kiwanuka was lost for the year with a broken left fibula. That will matter down the road -- against Chicago and Washington, and certainly in the finale against Tom Brady. But this week, the Giants need roughage to combat the Vikes running game, not a speed-rusher to frustrate the passer.
Giants 16, Vikings 13



Washington Redskins (5-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4)

This is the fourth Washington-at-Tampa Bay game in the last three years. It's true: The Bucs have played Washington in Raymond James Stadium more in the last three years than they've played any team in the league at home. (Three straight regular-season meetings, plus the 'Skins' 20-17 playoff nailbiter there in '05, when Chris Simms threw the perfect pass in the end zone that Edell Shepherd couldn't hold onto.) "It feels like we're in the NFC East,'' Jon Gruden said the other day. I like Washington, because I'm really starting to like what I see in Jason Campbell.
Redskins 30, Buccaneers 23



New Orleans Saints (4-6) at Carolina Panthers (4-6)

The Saints have lost four, won four, lost two. By rights, they should lose two more, I suppose. But these are the expansionesque Panthers we're talking about, with as bad a quarterback situation as there is in the league. Remember when Vinny Testaverde was a warm and fuzzy story, not a grim reality?
Saints 16, Panthers 12



Buffalo Bills (5-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (7-3)

I can just see it now. Chris Kelsay jogs onto the field in Jacksonville on Sunday, and Dick Jauron sidles up to him. "Hey,'' Jauron says. "What's that piece of black metal on your neck?" Kelsay, confused, picks it off and starts examining it. Jauron knows immediately what it is. "Shrapnel," he says, "left over from the New England game."
Jaguars 27, Bills 10



San Francisco 49ers (2-8) at Arizona Cardinals (5-5)

The Niners have 10 touchdowns in 10 games. I'm just staying with the average here in what looks fairly certain to be San Francisco's ninth loss in a row.
Cardinals 31, 49ers 13



Denver Broncos (5-5) at Chicago Bears (4-6)

This is the kind of year it is in Chicago: The Bears can't find a quarterback, they traded the wrong running back to the Jets, Bernard Berrian hasn't turned into Willie Gault, their defense lost its bite, Brian Urlacher's back hurts all the time, Mike Brown's hurt again ... and this win could move them within a game of a wild-card spot with three of the last five games at home.
Bears 24, Broncos 20



Baltimore Ravens (4-6) at San Diego Chargers (5-5)

The real question is: How long am I going to be a sucker for the Chargers? If I could count on Kyle Boller to play a B game here, I'd pick Baltimore, but he makes two throws every game that make you say: What in the world led him to THAT decision?
Chargers 23, Ravens 21



Philadelphia Eagles (5-5) at New England Patriots (10-0)

I think Donovan McNabb will play, but getting hurt (sprained ankle, sprained thumb) in November for the fourth time in the last six years leads me to think that Andy Reid will be led to make this inevitable decision after the season: whacking McNabb and going with '07 second-round pick Kevin Kolb.
Patriots 40, Eagles 14



Miami Dolphins (0-10) at Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3)

I pick a relatively close game not because I think the Steelers won't play well. I think the message from Mike Tomlin will be heard loud and clear, and several times, this week. "Every time you take the field, you've got to come to play,'' Tomlin said the other day. "That's what great teams do.'' I think Miami will play OK down the stretch, in part because Cam Cameron's going to put the kid quarterback, John Beck (only 9-of-22 in his debut at Philly last week), in position to succeed. Success is a relative term on an 0-10 team, but I think Beck's going to have some.
Steelers 27, Dolphins 17

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Re: Thanksgiving Consensus Report:

Lang's picks

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

no mention of GB-Det

THURSDAY 25 DIME

USC TROJANS - (If your man has -3 1/2 then you buy the half and only lay 3. You NEVER, I repeat you NEVER get beat by the hook. Always buy the half and only lay -3)

15 DIME

Dallas Cowboys

5 DIME

Atlanta Falcons


FREE PICK - Indy-Falcons UNDER - (For analysis see daily video)

analysis by 9 am eastern

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Re: Thanksgiving Consensus Report:

Kelso Thanksgiving

Chairmans Club = 10 units Detroit +3 v. Green Bay

Best Bets Club

10 units Ariz St +3 v. USC
5 units Atlanta Falcons +11.5 v. Indy

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