Friday Service plays

Friday Service plays

Michael Cannon Money Train

5 Dime –

YANKEES
Take the Yankees as the road chalk today in Game 2 of their ALDS against the Indians.

I had the Yankees as a 20 dime best bet and they failed me miserably, but I expect them to bounce back in a big way tonight.

That’s because Andy Pettitte will get the start and he brings a boatload of playoff experience into this game. The southpaw should be able to keep the predominately left-handed hitting lineup of the Indians in check.

The Tribe will counter with Fausto Carmona and the right-hander had a terrific season, but you have to wonder if the Indians might have wished they saved some of those runs they scored last night for today’s game.

That’s because the Tribe didn’t provide Carmona with a ton of run support this season, and if they struggle at the plate again tonight it’s going to be tough to keep the Yankees offense under wraps.

Take the Yankees for the road win behind Pettitte in Game 2.

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Big AL

At 5:05pm our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the New York Yankees. After two days of the postseason, three series' favorites (Philly, New York, and Chicago) have a combined record of 0-5. So far, if you just look at which team has the most consistent talent across the board, instead of which team spends more on salaries, then these games have gone exactly like they should have. In no first round game was this made more obvious than the Cleveland Indians' dismantling of the Yankees in game 1 by a score of 12-3. Sure the Yanks have A-Rod and Jeter, but when you look at the batting orders from top to bottom and the pitching staffs in their entirety, there is no doubt that the advantage here rests solidly in the Indians'corner. And now they will start young righthanded stud Fausto Carmona, while the Yankees will counter with veteran southpaw Andy Pettitte. Carmona was perhaps the best pitcher in the AL in the second half of the season, and he finished just one win shy of the league lead. In his last five starts, he was 5-0 with a 1.78 ERA, and he was also 9-1 this year in daytime starts. Pettitte has had a solid year with 15 wins, but his last two road starts were particularly troubling, having given up four earned runs in four innings in Boston on September 14th and then perhaps his worst start of the year on September 29 when he gave up eight earned runs in five innings (with no strikeouts) in Baltimore. Also of concern if you're a Yankee backer is the fact that Cleveland is an even better hitting team against lefties than against righties. The Tribe batted .273 this season vs. southpaws, and in their last ten games, their average was .306. Take the Indians. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. And don't miss our big Football Winners, as we have 8 selections posted right now, including two 3-game packages, and also our SEC Game of the Year and our Big 12 Game of the Month.

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Larry Ness

Game: Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox Oct 5 2007 8:35PM
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels

Reason: The Red Sox went 18-4 (plus-$1,000) at home in day games vs right-handers in the regular season but just 21-17 (minus-$890) in night games. They did open with a 4-0 win in Game 1 vs Lackey in a 6:35 ET time start but didn't do much with their bats after taking a 4-0 lead in the 3rd inning. They didn't need to, as Josh Beckett was superb. Will Dice-K give them a similar effort tonight? Red Sox manager Terry Francona made a bit of a surprising move when he opted to start Matsuzaka over Curt Schilling in the second game. Schilling is 8-2 with a 2.06 ERA in 15 career postseason starts, and also posted a 2.79 ERA in his final six starts of 2007. Francona chose Matsuzaka instead. Matsuzaka was a workhorse throughout his first major league season, going 15-12 with a 4.40 ERA and logging a team-high 204.2 innings. However, the Red Sox went just 17-15 (minus-$661) in his 32 starts this year. That heavy workload may have contributed to his 2-4 record and 7.14 ERA over his final eight outings (Boston lost eight of his last 13 starts!). Kelvim Escobar turned in his best season in 2007, going 18-7 with a 3.40 ERA. He was bothered by shoulder problems down the stretch but gave up one run over six innings in a 3-2 victory at Oakland on Saturday. Although he was a little shaky in some of his later outings this year, the Angels won EIGHT of his last nine starts, finishing 22-8 (plus-$951) in his 30 starts this year. 15* LA Angels.

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BEN BURNS Blue Chip Total = Yankees/Indians Under

Reason: I'm playing on the Yankees and Indians to finish UNDER the number. The bats came to life yesterday but I'm expecting the pitcher's to steal the show this afternoon. Pettitte is a big game veteran who has been here numerous times before. For his career, he is a solid 14-9 with a 4.08 ERA in the postseason. His team badly needs him to step up with a big effort and I expect this tough competitor to deliver. Carmona isn't nearly as experienced but he's got even nastier stuff. The Indians' young star has had a superb season and he's been awesome down the stretch. Indeed, for the season he was 19-8 with a 3.06 ERA and he finished the year by going 5-0 with a 1.78 ERA in his last five starts. Since this is an afternoon game, it's also worth noting that Carmona was 9-1 with a 2.14 ERA in 12 daytime starts this season. With those kind of stats, it's no surprise that Carmona has seen the UNDER go a highly profitable 13-2 his last 15 starts. Expect more of the same this afternoon as this pitcher's duel stays below the number. *blue chip total*

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Totals 4 U

Reg Plays NYY OVER 9
LAA UNDER 9-

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Matt Rivers
comp play

For Friday take the price back with the Angels.

Boston is clearly the far superior offense and being at Fenway Park is certainly not going to hurt Terry Francona's Red Sox but with their backs against the wall I'll take my chances on the Angels here.

Kelvim Escobar has been an absolute stud this season. The guy has been lights out for most of the campaign and should be fine here against Manny, Big Papi and the home Sox. I'm not saying he'll hurl a complete game gem but Escobar will keep the Halos in the game.

I love Dice-k's stuff as the gyro ball and his overall repertoire is scary when on but the Japanese hurler has been hit hard a bunch of times this season meaning that he cannot be fully trusted. Obviously Josh Beckett completely shut down Vlad, Garrett Anderson and the Angels in game one of the series but I don't see that happening again and with Escobar on the bump I'll take back this price on Mike Scioscia's Angels.

Anaheim really has to pull out all of the stops here as digging an 0-2 hole means a ton of trouble. With a very qaultiy hurler in Escobar here I believe we are looking at a 1-1 series.

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Vegas Experts

New York Yankees at Cleveland Indians
Friday, October 5th, 5:05 P.M. EDT

Twilight time start will help the hurlers. Carmona shows a 1.78 ERA his last five starts after a 19-win season. Pettitte making his 35th post-season start and knows what his job is. Torre probably won't make the same bullpen moves and let this one get away completely. Indians had scored but 17 runs in six previous games versus the Yanks this year before suddenly exploding for 12 last night.

Play on: Under

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Valley Sports

FREE MLB BASEBALL
Friday 10-05-2007
LA Angels/Boston Under The Total

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Big Al

Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox
Friday, October 5th, 8:35 P.M. EST EST

At 8:30pm our selection is on the Los Angeles Angels and Boston Red Sox 'under' the total. Although the main story coming out of game one of this series was the pitching of Boston ace Josh Beckett, the Angels have to continue to be concerned about their lack of offense. It's not just that they were facing Beckett. Los Angeles has now only scored a total of ten runs in their last six games, which is an average of well under two runs per game. Tonight's pitching matchup is not that different than game one. Each team is throwing a very talented and experienced righthander as its starter. For the Angels, that means 31 year old Kelvim Escobar. Escobar always had talent, but constantly battled injury problems in the past. This year he finally put it all together: 30 starts, 18 wins, a 3.40 ERA and 160 strikeouts. Interestingly, Escobar did not face the Red Sox in 2007, but the last two times he's faced them in Boston (in 2006 and 2005), he's pitched very well, only giving up two earned runs in twelve innings. Boston goes with Daisuke Matsuzaka, a baseball veteran who is a major league rookie, much the same way Ichiro was when he first came over from Japan to join Seattle. Matsuzaka has never faced the Angels before, but the way that team is hitting right now, he probably won't need much run support in this one. He will also have the added benefit of pitching in front of a very appreciative home crowd where he has been very tough lately. The 'under' is now 6-2 in the Angels' last eight playoff appearances. Good Luck - Big Al McMordie

Play on: Under

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Karl Garrett
LA Angels at BOSTON (-155)

After getting 4-hit by Josh Beckett on Wednesday, I expect the Angels to get something going against Matzusaka this Friday evening. I also expect the Boston attack to increase on their paltry 4 run output with some runs off the sore-armed Kelvim Escobar.

Tonight you will see the offense dominate at Fenway Park, as this will be Dice-K's first postseason start stateside, and nerves could play a bit of a factor. More of a factor will be the Halos looking to save face after Beckett mowed them down in convincing fashion on Wednesday.

Over the last 11 meetings at Fenway Park, these teams are on a 7-3-1 OVER clip, and the G-Man is just not convinced that Escobar's late season sore shoulder is 100%.

After giving you a play on the UNDER on Wednesday, I am coming back with a play on the OVER this Friday evening.

4* OVER

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Michael Cannon
LA Angels at BOSTON (-155)

Take the over tonight between the Angels and the Red Sox.

Josh Beckett's domination in Game 1 should have the Angels digging deep in an effort to try to get back into the series, and they should be able to plate some runs against Boston starter Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Dice-K struggled down the stretch, going 1-4 with a 7.09 ERA in eight starts after August 4 before beating Minnesota in Friday's AL clincher. He wasn't the dominating pitcher in the second half of the season that Boston envisioned when they signed him, and I expect him to give up his share of runs against a pretty good Angels lineup.

Kelvim Escobar will get the start for the Angels and he too struggled down the stretch, mainly because of a sore shoulder. The right-hander went 2-0 in his last three starts, but posted a 7.63 ERA over that span.

Runs should come aplenty in this game tonight, so take the over as the Angels and Red Sox slug it out in Game 2.

3* OVER

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Sports Gambling Hotline
NY Yankees at CLEVELAND (+120)

I will come right back in this series and play the UNDER tonight, as we feel sure Andy Pettitte's postseason experience (34 playoff starts!) will make a difference in cooling off the Cleveland sticks in Game 2.

Fausto Carmona will counter, and there is a good chance the flame-thrower will keep the Yankee bats at bay. New York was limited to just 5 hits last night, and now the pressure of another postseason collapse is in the back of their minds.

The runs will be hard to come by tonight as the pitchers put up the goose eggs.

Play the UNDER at the Jake tonight.

3* UNDER

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CAPPERS ACCESS

(Fri) MLB Yankees


Templer's Sports Picks

MLB 10/5/2007 at 5:00:00 PM

NY Yankees/Andy Pettitte at Cleveland/Fausto Carmona overunder

NY Yankees/Cleveland o9.5

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JAKE TIMLIN

Friday selection is the New York Yankees

My complimentary selections are 45-39 over the last 84 days.

Call me crazy but even with the Yankees losing big time last night I still thinks this series in New York’s to lose. After all even with yesterday’s lose it is New York that has won 6 of the 7 meetings this season as the Yankees turn to Pettitte and all of his postseason experience to right the ship tonight. For Pettitte he will have a huge leg up on Carmona as the Yankees lefty will be making his 35th postseason start compared to Carmona’s first. Plus with the fact that I just can’t see the Yankees offense being held in check to straight games I look for New York to get the road split as they had back to New York way home field advantage.

Flat out thanks the Yankees having owned the Indians in the regular season I look for New York to bounce back in a big way today as Carmona won’t be able to handle the pressure in his first postseason start.

Take the Yankees minus the road chalk as they even up this series.

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Marc Lawrence

free play

Play On: LA Angels w/Escobar

Note: Angels look to even up the series behind Kelvim Escobar, who has struggles somewhat coming down the stretch. His last start, though in in-form effort, an indicator he's rounding back into the quality arm that he is. Look for the Halos to even things up in Beantown tonight

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florida booky busters

MLB
10/5/2007 at 5:00:00 PM
NY Yankees/Andy Pettitte at Cleveland/Fausto Carmona

Cleveland


TRACE ADAMS

Yankees-Cleveland UNDER

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Bobby Maxwell

Today we go to Fenway Park for a complimentary play on the Red Sox and we're taking them on the Run Line for another plus-money ticket.

The Red Sox cruised in Game 1, 4-0, behind the pitching of Josh Beckett and now look for more of the same as the Boston import Daisuke Matsuzaka (15-12, 4.40 ERA) shows everyone just how tired his arm isn't with a strong start tonight.
The Angels were never really in Game 1 as the Red Sox jumped ahead early and weren't ever threatened.

Matsuzaka was 1-0 in his last three outings with a 3.98 ERA and was 8-4 at home this season. He seemed to get some of his mid-season form back in his last outing, limiting the Twins to two runs on six hits in eight innings of a 5-2 victory. In each of his last two home starts he allowed just two runs.

For the Angels it's Kelvim Escobar (18-7, 3.40) on the hill. He had a 7.63 ERA in his final three starts of the season, giving up 13 runs in 15 1/3 innings. Last time he faced the Red Sox was August 2006 when he allowed five runs over eight innings of a 5-4 loss. The Angels have won just once in his five starts against Boston.

Los Angeles is just 7-19 in its last 26 games at Fenway Park and just 2-6 in its last eight road playoff games.

Meanwhile Boston is 9-3 in its last 12 playoff games and 9-4 the last 13 times Matsuzaka has started at Fenway. The Angels might be overmatched in this series and will certainly fall behind 2-0 after tonight. Back Boston.

3* BOSTON Run Line

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COMPUTER PLAYS

NO BEST BETS

5:07 p.m. Cleveland Indians + 110
8:37 p.m. Boston Red Sox - 155


Nevada Sharpshooter

Friday
Yankees -125 Over Indians


PLATINUM PLAYS

the Los Angeles Angels & Boston Red Sox Over 9½ runs


DARK HORSE

MLB - Angels +140 over Boston


HD'S ACTIONLINE

Boston & Angels over 9.5

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JIM FEIST

(901) NY Yankees
(902) CLE Indians

Take "Under"

A couple of pitchers who know how to keep the ball down, something important in Jacobs Field. NY starter Andy Pettitte has a 2.54 ERA against Cleveland this season and has a better road ERA (3.95). The Indians have a sensational hard throwing sinkerballer in Fausto Carmona (19-8, 3.06 ERA). He's 10-4 with a 3.32 ERA at home where opponents hit just .238 off his electric stuff. The unders have been alive this posteason, starting 3-0, and this one has all the makings of a pitcher's duel. Play the Yankees/Indians under the total in Game 2

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THE WUNDERDOG comp:

Game: Los Angeles Angels at Boston (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Boston -1.5 runs +139

The postseason simply arrived at the wrong time for the Angels. Vladimir Guerrero is hurting, and has been relegated to the DH role, weakening their outfield defense. Chone Figgins their catalyst at the top of the order is in a 1-26 slump (.038) and their top two pitchers Lackey and Escobar are having problems as well. Their pen has fallen off over the second half to now rank in the bottom third of the league. This is a team that was lethal at home, but very ordinary on the road. They finished the season in a team-wide offensive slump. The Angels have produced just 10 runs over their last six games, and are 36-186 in the process, with a team average of just .194. They have not gotten it done at Fenway the entire season, producing just 22 runs in eight games or 2.75 per game. Kelvim Escobar allowed three runs or less in 17 of his first 23 starts or 74% of the time, but finished very poorly allowing five runs or more in four of his last seven! Like the Yankees, the Angels just don't hit or score against quality pitching on the road. Their last 10 games against a quality starter on the road have produced 21 runs in 10 games or 2.1 runs a game. That spells trouble with Escobar on the mound having pitched to a 7.16 ERA over his last seven starts as he has now walked 13 in his last 23.2 innings, and this is a Sox lineup that takes a lot of pitches and draws a lot of walks. The Sox are here because of their pitching which is the only AL team with a staff ERA under four, and their pen ranks No. 2 in all of baseball at 3.10. Diasuke Matsusaka won 15 games, and perhaps was a bit less spectacular than the Sox thought he would be. The key issue upon his arrival was how would he react to pitching every fifth day instead of once a week? Here is the answer. Early in the season it wasn't a problem, but as the season got into summer, around mid-June you could see it was certainly an issue. From mid-June on when Matsusaka pitched in the regular rotation every fifth day he worked 45.1 innings, 51 hits, 33 earned runs, 39 Ks with an ERA of 6.55. When he worked with extra rest or every sixth day or more, here are his numbers over the same period. He worked 66.2 innings, 51 hits, 23 earned runs, 70 Ks, with an ERA of 3.10. To capsulate, Matsusaka was 3.5 runs better on extra rest, to which he is accustomed instead of six more hits, than innings pitched. He was 16 less and also from less than a strikeout per inning, to more than a strikeout per inning. The bad news for the Angels is he is working on extra rest for this game, and they have not faced him all season, which adds to his potential in this game. The Red Sox have been on fire when winning at Fenway, so if you’re going to take them to win, then the -1.5 makes sense. In their home wins the Red Sox have won by an average margin of 4.12 runs a game, and in their last 28 home wins they have been 24-4 to the -1.5 runline, and outscored the opponent by 4.21 runs a game. Conversely, in their road losses the Angels have gone down by 3.79 runs a game, and have lost 34 of 43 (79.1%), by two runs or more. Sox go up 2-0 in the series with a convincing win in game two

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