Monday Service Picks

Re: Monday Service Picks

Guaranteed Pick: Lenny Del Genio

Game: San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies Oct 1 2007 7:35PM
Prediction: Colorado Rockies
Reason: Play on the Rockies at 7:35 ET. The Padres may have MLB's best pitcher (arguably) on the mound in Jake Peavy but the Rockies own all the momentum. The Padres were one strike away from clinching the NL's wild card Saturday afternoon in Milwaukee and blew it, They then scored three first-inning runs in Sunday's game (a win would have clinched again!) and lost that game, 11-6. Now, instead of heading to Philadelphia to meet the Phillies, the Padres must fly to Colorado to take on MLB's hottest team. The Rockies ended September by winning 13 of their last 14 games and the team's 71-46 mark since May 22 is the best in the NL, with only the Yankees doing better in all of MLB (Yanks went 74-45 in that time span). I won't repeat Peavy's incredible pitching stats from '07 (especially his road numbers!), because they are awesome. However, I will add that Fogg has been very solid for the Rockies down the stretch, going 3-0 with a 3.25 ERA over his last five starts (team is 4-1). Peavy's a right-hander and the Rockies are plus-$2,940 versus righties this year, going 37-19 against them here at Coors. Take Colorado as a 15* play.

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Guaranteed Pick: Nick Parsons

Game: San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies Oct 1 2007 7:35PM
Prediction: under
Reason: This game features Jake Peavy (19-6, 2.36 ERA) of the Padres vs. Josh Fogg (10-9, 4.79) of the Rockies. San Diego could have nailed down a postseason spot outright by winning either of its last two regular-season games. The Padres were one strike away from wrapping up a victory Saturday at Milwaukee, but all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman gave up a game-tying triple to Tony Gwynn Jr. in an eventual 4-3 loss in 11 innings. San Diego also fell 11-6 on Sunday to the Brewers, and Colorado took advantage with a 4-3 victory over NL West champion Arizona. It was the Rockies' 13th in 14 games, and left them needing one more win to secure their first playoff berth since 1995. With a 10-1 record and 2.20 ERA in his last 13 starts, Peavy is a front-runner for NL Cy Young Award. He's also the majors' best pitcher on the road, going 10-1 with a 2.16 ERA in 14 outings. Peavy has no record and a 1.29 ERA in two starts against the Rockies this year. Fogg has been pitching very well lately; he is 3-0 with a 2.94 ERA in his last six outings, including wins over San Diego's Chris Young and Arizona’s Brandon Webb. The veteran right-hander is 3-2 with a 5.48 ERA in his career against San Diego, including 1-1 with a 6.28 ERA in three outings this season. The last five times these teams have met, the total has gone ‘under’ the number; with so much on the line, and considering how well these pitchers have performed recently, my NL West Total of the Month is on the UNDER!

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Guaranteed Pick: Lenny Del Genio

Game: New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals Oct 1 2007 8:30PM
Prediction: under
Reason: Play on the Pats/Benagls to go Under at 8:30 ET. Everyone is anticipating a shootout in tonight's game but here's a take you may not have heard? The last thing either team wants is a shootout. Both teams have explosive offense stars, meaning both defenses will be guarding against the big play. Brady (79.5%) and Palmer (64.0%) are both very accurate passers and when passes get completed, the clock doesn't stop! With both teams playing a little deeper, expect some long, 'clock-eating' drives! I also like Cincinnati RB Kenny Watson, who will be replacing the injured Rudi Johnson. Expect the Bengals to allow him to establish the run. In two of the Pats' first three games, they have benefited from injuries to the other team's starting QBs (Pennington and Losman). In those two cases, the replacements were not able to sustain drives, giving New England more possessions than usual, plus often starting with excellent field-position, as well. That WON'T be the case here! NE/Cin Under is my 20* MNF Total of the Month

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Re: Monday Service Picks

Mike Rose


New England Patriots @ Cincinnati Bengals o53.0 (-110) OVER
Mon Oct 1 '07 8:30p
I don’t think they can set a number high enough in this one for me not to back the ‘Over’ in this spot. The Patriots offense has been simply unstoppable to start the season, and it doesn’t look to me like the Bengals have the defensive horses to hinder their play this evening.

QB Tom Brady already has 10 TD passes on the year, and that numbers certain to go up tonight when he looks to dissect a Bengals defense that’s allowing opponents to score a tad under 32 PPG. It’s amazing to me that a Marvin Lewis coached defense can give up these types of numbers, but it is what it is, and I expect NE fantasy owners to be very happy after this ones all said and done.

New England’s offense is a machine. It doesn’t sleep. It doesn’t eat. Heck, it doesn’t even look like it enjoys itself. However, what it does best is move the ball and put points up on the board at a very rapid pace. The Pats have totaled 38 points in each of their first three games, and they cut through those defenses (NYJ, SD, BUFF) like a warm knife through butter. QB Tom Brady and WR’s Randy Moss and Wes Welker are in such a groove right now that nobody can stop them. Especially not this Bungles stop unit that’s been thrown on to the tune of 258 YPG. It did a better job at Seattle last week, but the Seahawks have nowhere near as good a WR corps as the Patriots.

Also aiding this position tonight is the fact that Cincinnati won’t be able to do much on the ground. Their feature back, RB Rudi Johnson, will sit this game out with a hamstring injury. This will make the Patriots job on defense a bit easier with the Bengals being more one-dimensional, but I still believe Palmer, Johnson, & Houshmandzadeh are good enough to carry the offenses burden on their backs. As bad as their defense is, the offense is that much better and the Bengals only shot of winning this game is by partaking in a shoot-out. Look for the Bengals to be very pass happy, and try to mix in a run every once in awhile to keep the Pats “D” honest. I’m not sure this attack will be good enough to help them win the game, but it should aid our position on the ‘Over’.

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Mike  Lineback

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4.5* N. E./ Cinci over Monday night
2-1 yesterday +5.5*

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Frog Town Sports

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3-1 yesterday
Johnny Tailgate's Monday Night

Cincinnati +7 vs. New England
This is going to be a hell of a match up. This game may become an instant classic and have a couple of ESPY nominations. Both of these teams know how to score, and on paper right now, it looks like New England should win this game through the air against Cincy’s secondary. But against popular demand, I think David (Cincy's Secondary) will triumph over Goliath (Patriots Receivers) and cover the spread this weekend. Both these teams have a high powered offense but at home against a team like New England, the Bengal’s will play well above their numbers in the sport pages. I think this game will come down to a field goal win for which ever team is holding the ball last. Play against .800> NFL Road Favorites who has won and covered each of their previous 3 games. Play on any NFL team that has scored over 90 points in their last 3 match ups.

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Re: Monday Service Picks

Paul Leiner

Monday, October 1, 2007

Sport: NFL
Game: New England/Cincinnatti
Prediction: 5* Bengals +7.5

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Re: Monday Service Picks

Will Cover

Rating 1,2,3,4,5 Star

3-Star: Cincinnati/New England OVER the TOTAL!

COVER STORY: The Bengals stand 1-2 SU on the season and are coming off back to back road losses, so this becomes a critical game for host Cincinnati. If they hope to beat the NFL's best team, they simply have to put points on the board as the Pats average 38 PPG in their three games and have scored in all 12 quarters so far this season. We look for QB Palmer to go to the air early and often to WR's Johnson and Houshmandzadeh as the Bengals' running game is limited without stud RB Rudi Johnson who is very doubtful for this one. Cincy's offense is ranked #5 in the NFL, but their swiss-cheese defense is ranked 29th with a secondary that has trouble covering anyone and a suspect group of LB's. The pedestrian offense of the Cleveland Browns hung 51 points on them two weeks ago! Expect Pats' QB Brady and his outstanding group of WR's (Moss, Welker, Stallworth, et al) to have big nights with Moss going for his fourth 100 yard receiving game in a row! New England's #1 ranked offense has only had to punt "four times" in three games. Don't be surprised to see some scoring opportunities presented by the special teams of both clubs. Last year in the Queen City, the Pats pounded the Bengals 38-13, easily going OVER the TOTAL and feel this NE edition is far superior to last year's squad, especially on offense with their free-agent additions. The Bengals are 7-3 to the OVER on MNF last ten games while the Patriots are 8-1 to the OVER last nine games and 8-3 to the OVER last 11 times on MNF! Bombs away in Cincy this evening. 3-Star: OVER THE TOTAL!

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Re: Monday Service Picks

Bryan Leonard

Padres over Rockies

Padres at Rockies: San Diego ace Jake Peavy is 10-1 in his last 13 starts with a 2.20 ERA and has a 1.29 ERA in two starts against the Rockies this year. Colorado is 3-4 in the last 7 starts made by Josh Fogg, who has a 4.79 ERA. Opponents are hitting .314 off him in Coors Field.

PLAY THE PADRES

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Re: Monday Service Picks

Van Winkle Sports

NFL 10/1/2007 
NEW ENGLAND atCINCINNATI
   
Over 53.5

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Re: Monday Service Picks

Indian Cowboy

Monday NFL

New England @ Cincy

Is this another opportunity for the Patriots to show their dominance and to play with a chip on their shoulder after the harsh punishment that came down on Coach B? I think so. Humorous that the Pats have scored 38 points in each of their last 3 victories. The Bengals defense is horrible and continues to be overrated each year as this team miraculously gets overrated each year. Each year, they hear the cries of going dancing into the playoffs, and each year they fall short. In essence, they are like the NFC's St. Louis Rams of a couple years ago and even last year when there is so much expectations, but all that results are one L behind another L, behind another L. The total opened at 52 and has moved up to 53.5 in most places with some sprinkles of 54 in some places as well. The spread also opened up at -7 and has moved up to -7.5 and I've even seem some -8 and-8.5 earlier in the week until it has been bought down a bit of late. Rudi Johnson is not expected to play but he hasn't done all that well anywhere this year so it could be useful for the Bengals to see something different. New England has covered the last 5 ballgames from last year and are 3-0 ATS including covering a huge spread against the Bills last time out. NE has covered the last 2 years as the last 2 games totaled 51 and 36 and both of those games were on the road. This is going to be fun watching the #1 offense and #1 defense in the league in New England hit the road to face the #3 offense and 30th ranked defense in the league. I think this game goes NE and the Under.

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Re: Monday Service Picks

Ats Lock Club

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3 units on theColorado Rockies (+125) over the San Diego Padres, 7:30

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Re: Monday Service Picks

Mr A's
Monday, October 1st, 2007, 7:37 p.m. est.

San Diego Padres (89-73) at Colorado Rockies (89-73)
(R) Jake Peavy (19-6) vs. (R) Josh Fogg (10-9)

Padres' (R) Jake Peavy


San Diego sends Jake Peavy (19-6, 2.36 ERA) to the hill. The right-hander is 10-1 with a 2.20 ERA in his last 13 starts. Peavy is 4-4 with a 4.11 ERA against the Rockies in 12 career starts. He went without a decision and a 1.29 ERA in two starts against the Rockies this season.


Colorado counters with Josh Fogg (10-9, 4.79). The right-hander is 3-0 with a 2.94 ERA in his last six outings and is 3-2 with a 5.48 ERA in his career against San Diego, including 1-1 with a 6.28 ERA in three outings this season.


The hot Rockies won the last four meetings versus the Padres, but will face San Diego's ace Jake Peavy, who is 7-1 in his last 10 starts. The Padres’ ace has been outstanding away from home this season, going 10-1 with a 2.16 ERA. San Diego has won eight of Peavy's last 9 road starts. Take the Padres with Peavy at the helm to win the tiebreaker and wrap up the National League's wild card race.

Oddsmakers:
San Diego as a -135 road favorite with the total listed at 9'over'.

San Diego Padres

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Re: Monday Service Picks

THE SPORTS ADVISORS

NFL

New England (3-0 SU and ATS) at Cincinnati (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS)
The high-scoring, unbeaten Patriots travel to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals in a nationally televised contest at Paul Brown Stadium.
The Bengals come into this one off last week’s 24-21 loss at Seattle, though they did cash as a 3½-point underdog. In its lone home game this season, Cincinnati beat Baltimore 27-20 as a 2½-point chalk.
New England has scored 38 points in each of its first three games, beating the Jets and Chargers by identical 38-14 scores and then trouncing the Bills 38-7 as a 16½-point chalk at home last week.
Ironically, Bill Belichick’s Patriots scored exactly 38 points a year ago in Cincinnati, beating the Bengals 38-13 as 5½-point underdogs and sending the Bengals into a 5-8 tailspin to end the season. Prior to last year’s clash, Cincinnati had been on a 4-0 ATS run against New England.
Patriots QB Tom Brady leads the NFL with a 141.8 quarterback rating, completing almost 80 percent of his throws for 887 yards, 10 TDs and just one INT. His favorite target has quickly become newcomer Randy Moss, who has 403 yards receiving and five TDs.
Tonight the Patriots face a Cincinnati defense giving up 402.7 yards and 31.7 points per game, fourth-worst in the NFL in both categories.
Offensively, Marvin Lewis’ Bengals rank second in passing offense, with QB Carson Palmer throwing for 937 yards and nine TDs. WR Chad Johnson has 442 yards receiving and fellow WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh leads the NFL with 46 catches.
New England is 26-10-1 ATS in its last 37 road games, 23-8 ATS against teams with a losing record and has cashed a ticket in seven of the last 10 appearances on Monday night.
Cincinnati is mired in a 1-10 ATS slump in Week 4 games and 3-7-1 ATS against teams with a winning record.
The over is 3-0 for the Pats this season and 2-1 for the Bengals. Also, the last three regular-season clashes between these squads have topped the posted total.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND and OVER

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Re: Monday Service Picks

Sebastian

7* CINN/NE over
15* CINN

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Re: Monday Service Picks

Nick Parsons

Guaranteed Pick:

Game: San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies Oct 1 2007 7:35PM
Prediction: under

Reason: This game features Jake Peavy (19-6, 2.36 ERA) of the Padres vs. Josh Fogg (10-9, 4.79) of the Rockies. San Diego could have nailed down a postseason spot outright by winning either of its last two regular-season games. The Padres were one strike away from wrapping up a victory Saturday at Milwaukee, but all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman gave up a game-tying triple to Tony Gwynn Jr. in an eventual 4-3 loss in 11 innings. San Diego also fell 11-6 on Sunday to the Brewers, and Colorado took advantage with a 4-3 victory over NL West champion Arizona. It was the Rockies' 13th in 14 games, and left them needing one more win to secure their first playoff berth since 1995. With a 10-1 record and 2.20 ERA in his last 13 starts, Peavy is a front-runner for NL Cy Young Award. He's also the majors' best pitcher on the road, going 10-1 with a 2.16 ERA in 14 outings. Peavy has no record and a 1.29 ERA in two starts against the Rockies this year. Fogg has been pitching very well lately; he is 3-0 with a 2.94 ERA in his last six outings, including wins over San Diego's Chris Young and Arizona’s Brandon Webb. The veteran right-hander is 3-2 with a 5.48 ERA in his career against San Diego, including 1-1 with a 6.28 ERA in three outings this season. The last five times these teams have met, the total has gone ‘under’ the number; with so much on the line, and considering how well these pitchers have performed recently, my NL West Total of the Month is on the UNDER

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Re: Monday Service Picks

Big Al


At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the SD Padres with Jake Peavy over Colorado. Although the Rockies are the hottest team going right now, they've never fared well vs. Peavy, who will win the NL Cy Young Award this year. Peavy leads the Majors in ERA (2.36) and is second in wins (19). And he's also 10-1 in his last 13 starts, and his ERA this season vs. Colorado is 1.29 (in two starts). Josh Fogg has also pitched well lately, but his ERA this season vs. the Padres was a poor 6.28 (in three starts). This is also a rare time one can bet on Jake Peavy and lay less than -160. He's faced 10 National League clubs this year with odds less than -160 and the Padres were 9-1 with their only loss coming back in April (3-2 to Arizona), and Peavy threw seven shutout innings in that game, but the SD bullpen let him down. Josh Fogg does his worst work at home (6.28 ERA this year), while Peavy's over-performed on the road (2.16 ERA this year).

Take San Diego

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Re: Monday Service Picks

Kiki Sports GOY New England -7.5

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Re: Monday Service Picks

JEFF BENTON

Patriots-Bengals game to go OVER the total

There really isn’t much to analyze here, as there are obviously a boatload of playmakers on the offensive side of the ball for both teams, from the Palmer/Ocho Cinco/T.J. trifecta to the explosive Brady/Moss/Stallworth/Welker combination.
Through three games, the Bengals have averaged 31 points and 393 yards per contest, incluing 301 passing yards per game, and they’ve scored at least 24 points in all three contests. Meanwhile, New England has tallied exactly 38 points in all three of its games, rolling up 441 yards of total offense in the process (289 ypg passing).
Well, tonight, the Pats face a porous Bengals’ defense that’s allowing 31.7 points and 402.7 points per outing, so you know New England is going to put points on the board. And while the Pats’ defense has been extremely stout so far, it hasn’t faced an offense as complete and potent as Cincinnati’s. Thus, you have to figure that the Bengals will find the end zone on multiple occasions, too.
Throw in some juicy trends – the Patriots have topped the total in all three of their games this season, Cincinnati has done so in two of its three and the over is 4-0 in the last four meetings – and this one pretty much becomes a no-brainer.
(based on a 1 to a 10 ♦ Rating)

3♦ Bengals-Patriots OVER

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Re: Monday Service Picks

HAWKEYE SPORTS

Colorado & San Diego under 9 runs

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