NCAA Foots Week 4

NCAA Foots Week 4

3* 4-0, +12.00 
2* 4-2, +3.60 
1* 8-10, -0.60 

Year: 16-12, +15.00 

September 22, 2007 
Penn State at Michigan 
Selection: Michigan +3 


I try to shy away from the “bigtime” games as much as I can as I think there is a greater margin of value in the smaller conferences and or lesser known schools, but if I bet on value then I can’t pass this one up. Let’s say both teams are 3-0 coming into this game, you still think Penn State’s laying the -3? Nope. It’s easily Michigan –4, maybe even more, possibly even a –6, which is what I have this game at currently. 

Regardless of the QB situation for Michigan (I don’t think Henne suits up here), Mallett took care of business against a weak Notre Dame defense. Henne even came out and said that Mallett has the potential to be the best QB to come out of Michigan. The kid carries enough confidence on his shoulders, which made me overlook the Michigan QB situation. This is more of a fade on Penn State and it’s quarterback. Sure, Morelli has looked good this year. 

4 touchdowns against Buffalo 
3 touchdowns against Florida International 

No interceptions in either game. Then you look at Notre Dame, one touchdown, and one interception. It’s clear however, that that’s all it takes to beat Notre Dame. An average team will beat them. 

What am I getting to? Morelli in the “big-game.” The kid doesn’t have a single game victory on his resume labeled as a “big-game.” 

His results from last year: 

189 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 int, in a 41-17 loss at Notre Dame 
106 yards, 0 touchdowns, 3 int’s, in a 28-6 loss at Ohio State 
133 yards, 0 touchdowns, 0 int’s, in a 17-10 loss at home vs. Michigan 
165 yards, 0 touchdowns, 1 int, in a 13-3 loss at Wisconsin 

A total of 1 touchdown, and 5 interceptions, in his so called “big-games” last year. Sure, he threw for 197 in the bowl game against Tennessee, something I wouldn’t count as remarkable either. 

Michigan hasn’t lost to Penn State since 1996. This is a pretty good rivalry game for both schools. I think you’ll see a similar line for Morelli here, probably see a similar line for Mallett as well. I think both coaches are going to take an approach where your quarterback won’t “lose” the game for you, but they won’t “win” it either. Play average, and good things should come out of it. 

Fact is, this Michigan team and it’s new QB face absolutely, positively ZERO pressure this coming week. Having lost to Appy State, and Oregon already this year, it’s good for them to get into the Win column w/ a victory last week. On the other hand, this is a Penn State team still playing for a national title, and playing w/ a ton of pressure to snap a 10-game losing streak against a hated rival. Michigan has nothing to lose here. As I said before, I try to shy away from these “hyped” games, but I think I’ll play the home doggie in this spot and make the team who’s desperate try to beat me by more than a field goal… 

1* Michigan +3   

Should have some more on Tuesday. Gl… 

reggie1
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Re: NCAA Foots Week 4

Conference Action

September 22, 2007
Kent State at Akron
Selection: Akron +3.5

Line doesn’t make sense to me. The winner of this annual rivalry receives the wagon wheel trophy. That trophy was taken from Akron last year for the first time since 1996. Revenge, along with the fact that Kent State has been turning the ball over quite a bit, I’ll take the home doggie here. Akron was a 3 point favorite last year at Kent, before losing. By reading some notes/quotes, this is the one game Akron has been looking forward to for a long time. Akron my #5 pre-season, and Kent my #6. I’ll take the home pup in this spot always…

1* Akron +3.5

September 22, 2007
Temple at Bowling Green
Selection: Temple +21

I will admit, I had a few beers capping the games last night, so I had to re-look over everything to make sure that this in fact does say Temple. Temple won one game last year, Bowling Green. Bowling Green has had two tough games this year against Minnesota, and Michigan State, and that will wear you out physically. Lucky that they have had two weeks to take some time off and prepare for this one, but do you honestly think they wasted two weeks of preparation on Temple?

My pre-season rankings come out like this, Bowling Green #3, and Temple #4. Temple has shown signs of improvement this year, and I can’t understand the large disparity between #3 and #4 in the conference, which is the reason for the play. I don’t think three touchdowns separate any team in the MAC, let alone these two. As I stated before, the win over Minnesota was huge for Bowling Green, but looking back on it, just how special was it? Minnesota’s also lost to Florida Atlantic, and took Miami OH down to the wire. I have Miami OH at #1 in the MAC preseason, which goes to show Miami OH loses by 6 and they are my #1, Bowling Green wins by 1, and they are my #3. Very little disparity there.

While Bowling Green has the advantage w/ preparation time and revenge, I feel that Temple has an extremely important motivation factor heading into this ballgame. My buddy was the culprit. He always bets stupid sh*t, and always gets lucky as hell. He had a small wager on the Temple moneyline based on Uconn looking ahead to Pitt. He should have won the bet too. He called me, told me to turn on the game, which I did. What I saw was astonishing. Temple caught a touchdown pass with about 40 seconds left in the game and was ruled out of bounds. Replay officials reviewed it, which clearly showed that he had a foot in bounds for the go-ahead touchdown and what would have been a victory and a huge upset. With little time to think, and the only team that you beat last year on the schedule, it’s an exceptional motivation factor to come out and prove that you can win some ballgames this year this week. I like the points here…

2* Temple +21

September 22, 2007
San Jose State at Utah State
Selection: San Jose State +3.5

Well, both teams are 0-3, so let’s give the home team 3.5 or so points for home field right? Clearly what oddsmakers have done here as this game probably will not garner much attention this week. I have to admit, I have San Jose State at #5 in the conference preseason to Utah State’s #9. Clearly a large difference there. I don’t think anyone expected San Jose State to win a game in it’s first three tries against Stanford, Kansas State, and Arizona State. On the other hand, I don’t think Utah State was expected to win against Wyoming or Oklahoma, either.

San Jose State has won nine of the last ten here, and the games are usually a close ballgame throughout. The difference in this game, San Jose State knows how to win. Headed by a senior QB (who missed a game or two), San Jose State goes into conference play with a bit of confidence stemming from how well they played last year. Give me a Senior QB on the road w/ a team who experienced winning, against a team has been downright pitiful for years and I’ll take the points 99% of the time.

San Jose State is pretty upset it’s started out 0-3, but they opened as I stated, with three tough opponents. They’ve been looking forward to this game, getting into the meat of the conference since coming off a 9-4 campaign and a bowl game last year. They return 7 offensive starters, and lost their top 3 WR’s. They return an all-american CB, along w/ the WAC’s leading lacker in LB Matt Castello, and return a whopping 10 players on both sides of the ball up front who have experience. This is a Utah State team who I had predicted to go 1-11, w/ that win coming in week 1 against a poor road team in UNLV. There is an outside chance that San Jose’s leading RB from a year ago returns for this game (1000 yards last year), and he’s been out since game one. Tafralis (QB), who led the victory in the bowl game last year, was able to return against Stanford and get some reps in.

You think San Jose State is fired up for the game? Here’s a quote after the Stanford game last week by head coach Dick Tomey:

“We were a bunch of prima donnas. We are going to practice at 6:30am in the morning (Sunday).” Anybody not there is cut and any coach who is not there is fired. It’s about playing with toughness, playing with pride.”

I like the enthusiasm coach…

3* San Jose State +3.5

September 22, 2007
Oregon State at Arizona State
Selection: Oregon State

Forget Oregon State’s pathetic showing on national TV at Cincy. This is Pac 10 play. I got Oregon State at #4 in the Pac-10 preseason, and ASU at #5. Again, I don’t think 12.5 points separate #4 and #5 in the Pac-10. This is a very winnable ballgame for Oregon State. Hell, they beat ASU 44-10 last year. Arizona State has started out quick this year, however, their opponents are a combined 1-7 and have a weak schedule strength of #131. The same story was told last year, starting out 3-0 against weak competition, then getting blown out by Cal, Oregon, and USC. I’ll take my chances w/ the points with what should be a close game

1* Oregon State +12.5

September 22, 2007
Iowa State at Toledo
Selection: Toledo +3.5

Sandwich game, letdown factor. And Toledo is about 50x better than it has showed thus far.

1* Toledo +4.5

reggie1
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Re: NCAA Foots Week 4

Some notes:

Miami FL is 1-7 SU vs ranked teams last 8 times out

I like Illinois a lot here. I basically told myself that I would not bet on them or against them all year, but I will be in attendance and Zook commented on this game all summer. They’ve had two games circled for a year that they talked about all summer. Syracuse and Indiana, and we know how Syracuse turned out…

It seems that I can’t remember Baylor being favored to much, but when they are favored, it seems as if they win a great majority of the time. I looked it up, 8-4 ats last 4 or 5 years.

Ball State’s third straight roady

Does the Washington/OSU game physically have an impact on Washington this week? One would think it would, apparently others do to, -5.5 to –6.5 overnight…

Georgia first road game

This is weird. Northwestern is 14-0 ATS the week before Michigan. I don’t see any significance to that, but someone try and explain that to me…

Penn State 0-6 ATS in big 10 openers last 6 years
Memphis got a revenge factor (lost 26-24 last year)

Virginia/Georgia Tech series has the home team 7-1 ats last 8 out

Cal has revenge for 24-20 loss last year

Iowa State has Nebraska on deck (sandwich game)

Oregon won 5 straight ATS vs. Stanford

Pre-Season Conference Rankings
Syracuse #8, Louisville #2
Illinois #7, Indiana #10
Kent State #6, Akron #5
Air Force #8, BYU #2
Washington #9, UCLA #2
Northwestern #11, Ohio State #4
Penn State #3, Michigan #1
Memphis #5, CFU #2
Georgia Tech #3, Virginia #4
Arizona #5, Cal #3
Temple #4, Bowling Green #3
Maryland #5, Wake Forest #4
Uconn #7, Pitt #5
Washington State #8, USC #1
Iowa #5, Wisky #2
San Jose State #5, Utah State #9
Purdue #6, Minny #7
Utah #4, UNLV #9
Oregon #6, Stanford #10
Oregon State #4, Arizona State #5
Troy #1, Lafayette #4
Florida ATL #5, North Texas #7

Conference games are done, more than likely all I will be playing. May pick up a ML parlay here or there, or a possible non-conference game.

Gl…

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Re: NCAA Foots Week 4

September 22, 2007 
Illinois at Indiana 
Selection: Illinois –2.5 

Went ahead and put this in. Like I said, Indiana has been playing w/ a great deal of motivation this year for their former coach, but Illinois has had this game circled for a year now. Both teams know what to expect, and both teams have had the luxury of practicing for 6 months against what the other team is going to do as these teams are about as close as a resemblance as you can think of. 

Two pretty evenly matched teams, and what set me a part was this. Illinois has confidence coming off a rare road thrashing of Syracuse last weekend. Yes, it was Syracuse, but any win on the road is a good win in the college ranks. I’m just not sure how long Indiana can keep playing to the pace that they are and at what point the emotions start to fall. Both squads are #7 and #8 in rushing offense, and both squads are #10 and #12 in rushing defense. What’s the big difference here? 

Indiana’s Strength of Schedule at a whopping #175. Which is the worst SOS in the Big 10. The following have better SOS marks thus far: 

Every team in the ACC 
Every team in the Big East 
Every team in the Big 12 
Every team in Conference USA 
Every team in the Mountain West 
Every team in the SEC 
Every team in the WAC 

Liberty, Charleston Southern, and VMI from the AA Big South conference have better SOS’s than Indiana. 

It’s pick your poison here. Illinois first four pass completions in last years game went for 32, 35, 45, and 53 yards for a first quarter score of 22-7. I remember leaving the stadium at that point. We had beer to finish at the car, so we left. Needless to say, they ended up losing, but from what I saw, Indiana stopped the pass and made the adjustments at halftime. Illinois was not all that great of a running team last year, but they have the weapons to run the ball this year. Therefore, you can choose one or the other but I just don’t think they can stop both. 

Indiana’s already showed a glimpse of it this year. They allowed Akron’s Jackson to throw for 190, two scores, and run for 84 and another touchdown. Luckily, Akron’s defense couldn’t contain Indiana’s Lewis on the ground, or it would have been a much closer game. It just all comes down to the easy schedule that Indiana has played thus far, and while I hate laying road chalk and betting on my squad, I just can’t see a formidable reason as to why and how Illinois doesn’t score at will here, along with revenge, and after a confidence building road victory last week… 

1* Illinois –2.5

reggie1
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Re: NCAA Foots Week 4

looks like a sweep to me

3* 5-0, +15.00 
2* 5-3, +3.40 
1* 14-11, +4.58 

Year: 24-14, +22.98

reggie1
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Re: NCAA Foots Week 4

reggie1 wrote:


looks like a sweep to me

3* 5-0, +15.00 
2* 5-3, +3.40 
1* 14-11, +4.58 

Year: 24-14, +22.98

Nice weekend Reggie  wink

I should just start coat tailing you with the way my bets have gone.  tongue

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