Lions vs. Bills Total Prediction
Two of the league’s worst offenses meet up this Sunday when the Buffalo Bills host the Detroit Lions at 1PM ET. Here’s our breakdown of the total for this NFL clash.
Game Snapshot & Odds
315 Detroit Lions at 316 Buffalo Bills
Sunday, December 16, 2018
1PM ET – New Era Field
Public Betting Trends
According to oddsmakers at BetNow.eu, the Bills are the slight favorite at home, as they are getting odds of -2 points against the Lions. The over/under total is currently listed at 39.5 points. The public betting for this game currently has 60 percent going on the Bills at home.
Lions still with slim playoff hopes
The Detroit Lions snapped a two-game losing streak last week with a 17-3 win at Arizona. Despite being 5-8, the Lions actually have some playoff hopes, but will need to win out. The Lions are 5-8 overall, 7-6 against the spread and 7-6 with the under. They have hit the under in four straight games.
Detroit is scoring just 20.8 points per game and amassing just 330.6 yards per game on offense this season. The unit is really beat up as multiple starters on the offensive line are out or questionable while running back Kerryon Johnson is questionable to return from his knee injury that has kept him out of multiple games. Quarterback Matthew Stafford is also dealing with multiple injuries, but expected to play. He has thrown for 3,187 yards and 18 touchdowns with 11 interceptions, but has been sacked 37 times. Kenny Golladay is his leading receiver with 57 catches for 859 yards and five touchdowns. Defensively, the Lions are giving up 24.5 points and 348.7 yards per game. The unit lost pass rusher Ezekiel Ansah for the rest of the season with a shoulder injury. They still have 37 sacks as a team this season.
Bills fall again
The Bills looked as if they were building momentum, but have suffered back-to-back 4-point losses to the Dolphins and the Jets the last two weeks. Buffalo is 4-9 on the season, 5-8 against the spread and 7-6 with the under. The Bills have hit the over in four of their last five games.
Buffalo has the 31st-ranked offense in the league. The Bills are averaging just 15.5 points and 292 yards per game this season. Rookie QB Josh Allen has thrown for just 1,429 yards and five touchdowns with nine interceptions, but he has rushed for a team-high 490 yards and five scores. The offense has given up 39 sacks on the year and they are expecting to be without LeSean McCoy on Sunday due to a hamstring injury. Despite the poor offense, Buffalo does have one of the best defenses in the league. They allow a league-low 290.6 yards per game, but still give up 24.6 points per contest. They have the top pass defense, giving up only 185.8 yards per game through the air. The Bills have 31 sacks and 20 forced turnovers.
NFL Betting Trends
The Lions have hit the under in 11 of their last 16 games against a team with a losing record. They have also hit the under in five of their last six in December.
The Bills have hit the over in 20 of their last 27 home games and in 10 of their last 12 at home against a team with a losing road record.
While Buffalo has been hitting the over as of late, I definitely think the under hits here. The Lions have gone ultra-conservative on offense due the injuries. Stafford, once a gunslinger, is now averaging just 4 yards per attempt. Last week they had just 10 points on offense, with seven coming late in the game. The Detroit defense has played well and should match up well against a poor Buffalo offense that is relying on Allen to do it all. Detroit has enough pass rushers to keep him somewhat contained.
NFL Prediction: Lions/Bills Under 39.5