Raiders vs. Chiefs Total Prediction
Despite the Chiefs’ high-scoring offense, is the under the best play on the board for bettors when the Raiders visit Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET? The current number sits at 51 points.
461 Oakland Raiders (+10) at 462 Kansas City Chiefs (-10); O/U 51
4:25 p.m. ET, Sunday, December 1, 2019
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Chiefs are receiving 57% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Oakland Raiders Fantasy Spin
Derek Carr completed 15-of-27 passes for 127 yards, zero touchdowns and an interception in the Raiders' Week 12 matchup against the Jets. Carr and the offense failed to get anything going for the entire afternoon. Coach Jon Gruden ultimately decided to go with backup QB Mike Glennon down 31 points at the end of the third quarter. None of the Raiders' pass catchers managed to clear even 40 receiving yards prior to Carr exiting. Coach Jon Gruden has enabled the offense to great heights this season when everything is right, but Carr struggled to carry the offense this week without the benefit of a strong running game or picture-perfect protection. Treat him as more of a mid-tier QB2 in Week 13's matchup against the Chiefs.
Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Spin
Damien Williams (ribs) didn't practice again Thursday. The Chiefs fed Damien 45 of the backfield's 55 total touches since LeSean McCoy lost a fumble in the third quarter of their Week 8 loss to the Packers up until Monday night in Week 11. This entire situation is a complete mess exiting the Chiefs' Week 12 bye. Damien would tentatively be expected to regain his starting role if healthy against the Raiders in Week 13, but he'll be at risk of reduced snaps and further re-aggravation due to the nature of ribs injuries. Shady showed off some vintage cuts and moves the last time we saw him in Mexico City, but he was lucky to recover *another* fumble. Darrel Williams remains capable of handling a three-down role, although it's clear both Damien and McCoy are more-explosive options with the ball in their hands.
NFL Betting Trends
The under is 8-2 in the Raiders’ last 10 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
The over is 13-6 in the Chiefs’ last 19 games overall and has cashed in five of their last six home games.
Given Kansas City’s ability to score at will, coupled with Oakland’s ability to surrender points at will, the over seems like the best play on the surface. That said, wind gusts are expected to be between 15-20 mph in Kansas City this weekend, which could impact the Chiefs’ ability to move the ball consistently through the air. Plus, the best way for the Raiders to pull off the upset is to keep the ball in rookie running back Josh Jacobs’ hands in efforts to control the ball and keep Patrick Mahomes on the sidelines. All of this makes for a good under play, especially with the total sitting in the 50s. The under is 20-7 in the Raiders’ last 27 divisional games and is 9-1-1 in the Chiefs’ last 11 games following a bye.
NFL Week 13 Prediction: Raiders/Chiefs UNDER 51