Patriots vs. Texans Total Prediction
Tom Brady and the 10-1 Patriots travel to Houston on Sunday night to take on the Texans at 8:20 p.m. ET. With the way New England has struggled offensively, will the game turn out to be low-scoring for bettors?
473 New England Patriots (-3) at 474 Houston Texans (+3); O/U 46
8:20 p.m. ET, Sunday, December 1, 2019
NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Patriots are receiving 66% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
New England Patriots Fantasy Spin
Tom Brady completed 17-of-37 passes for 190 yards, one touchdown and zero interceptions in the Patriots' 13-9, Week 12 win over the Cowboys. Brady struggled to get the offense on track, as the Cowboys’ pass rush and bend-don’t-break secondary consistently kept the Patriots from stringing together long drives. The lack of a dominant rushing game didn’t help, but that’s largely been the case throughout the season. Additionally, the porous weather conditions and absence of Mohamed Sanu (ankle) as well as Phillip Dorsett (concussion) made this an uphill battle for the passing game. Still, the production was also a reminder that Brady doesn’t boast much of a fantasy ceiling these days inside of the Patriots’ bottom-10 offense in yards per play. The good news is that next week’s matchup against the Texans’ banged-up secondary should yield better results.
Houston Texans Fantasy Spin
DeAndre Hopkins caught 6-of-9 targets for 94 yards and two touchdowns in the Texans' Week 12 win over the Colts. Even with Will Fuller returning and posting a 7/140 line, Hopkins had his best game in nearly a month. The two-score effort was his first since Week 1. For the first, a coverage bust left Hopkins wide open for a 35-yard grab in the end zone. On the second, he roasted Pierre Desir down the left sideline before hauling in a 30-yarder. Although Fuller is a target competitor, his game-breaking speed rolls defensive attention away from Hopkins, freeing him up for bigger plays of his own. Hopkins has the toughest of Week 13 draws in Stephon Gilmore and the Patriots.
NFL Betting Trends
The under is 10-2 in the Patriots’ last 12 games played in the month of December.
The under is 20-6 in the Texans’ last 26 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
Outside of Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, the Patriots have been able to stifle every offense they’ve faced this season. Why should we assume that will be different Sunday night in Houston? Like Jackson, Deshaun Watson is also mobile and he can make big plays with both his arm and his legs. That said, I expect the Patriots to play better against Watson after learning from what went wrong versus Jackson in Baltimore. On the other side, there’s still something off about Brady and this New England offense. The Patriots can’t get their running game going, they don’t have a legitimate deep threat and Brady hasn’t been as accurate as what we’ve been accustomed to seeing. I like the under, which is 4-1 in the Patriots’ last five games overall, has cashed in 25 of their last 35 road games and is also 8-1 in the Texans’ last nine home games.
NFL Week 13 Prediction: Patriots/Texans UNDER 46