Bills vs. Cowboys Thanksgiving Prediction
The Cowboys will look to rebound from their loss to the Patriots and the Bills will attempt to win their third straight game when the teams meet at 4:30 p.m. ET on Thanksgiving Day. Will Dallas laying 6.5 points, what’s the best play for bettors?
307 Buffalo Bills (+6.5) at 308 Dallas Cowboys (-6.5); O/U 47
4:30 p.m. ET, Thursday, November 28, 2019
AT&T Stadium, Dallas, TX
According to our NFL Public Betting Chart page, the Bills are drawing 59% of the betting tickets ahead of tonight’s game.
Buffalo Bills Fantasy Spin
Josh Allen completed 15-of-25 passes for 185 yards, two touchdowns, and one turnover in Buffalo's Week 12 win over the Broncos. He also rushed nine times for 56 yards. Buffalo's secondary did most of the legwork, forcing five consecutive three-and-outs while permitting just 82 passing yards to Brandon Allen. Josh Allen's touchdowns unsurprisingly featured the usual suspects as Cole Beasley ran a route over the middle of the field to open the third quarter with an 18-yard walk-in score; Allen's second was a 34-yard laser to John Brown, who beat Chris Harris clean along the right sideline. Despite being one of Allen's toughest tests to date, his rushing floor once again proved why he's an unequivocal QB1 weekly. He'll be ranked as such on Thanksgiving against Dallas.
Dallas Cowboys Fantasy Spin
Ezekiel Elliott rushed 21 times for 86 yards in the Cowboys' Week 12 loss to the Patriots, adding four receptions for 40 additional yards. Zeke was largely the Cowboys only consistent source of offense on the afternoon, as Dak Prescott averaged a pedestrian 6.4 YPA. Elliott deserves credit for consistently finishing runs strongly and falling forward for extra yards, and the Cowboys’ elite offensive line also did a good job opening up lanes to spring their featured RB into the second level of the defense. OC Kellen Moore got Elliott a little bit more involved in the passing game than usual courtesy of some well-designed screens, but it still seems unlikely we see Zeke with too high of a weekly target floor moving forward. Regardless, he’s locked in as a top-five option at the RB position ahead of Thanksgiving Day’s matchup against the Bills’ run-funnel defense.
The Bills are 5-0-1 against the spread in their last six road games and are 4-0 against the number in their last four games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
The Cowboys are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games overall and are 7-1 against the number in their last eight games played in the month of November.
NFL Week 13 Prediction
It’s not surprising to see public bettors backing the Buffalo today and grabbing the 6.5 points. That’s a lot of points to hand a team that is 8-3 and steamrolling its way to a playoff berth. That said, the last time the Bills faced a NFC East opponent was back on October 27th at home and the Eagles ripped their run defense in a 31-13 win. I expect Dallas to challenge Buffalo in the same manner. The Bills’ weakness is their run defense, so this should be a big day for Elliott. While Dak Prescott has a much more difficult matchup against the Bills’ excellent secondary, he too should rebound now that he’s out of the elements of Foxborough.
NFL WEEK 13 PREDICTION: DALLAS COWBOYS -6.5