Bears vs. Lions Total Prediction
NFC North rivals will square off in Detroit on Thanksgiving Day when the Lions host the Bears at 12:30 p.m. ET. The total for this matchup opened at 41, but was bet down two full points to 39. Should bettors follow the movement and take the under?
12:30 p.m. ET, Thursday, November 28, 2019
Ford Field, Detroit, MI
According to our NFL Public Betting Chart page, the Lions are drawing 51% of the betting tickets ahead of Thursday night’s game.
Chicago Bears Fantasy Spin
Mitchell Trubisky completed 25-of-41 passes for 278 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions while adding 18 yards and a touchdown on seven carries Sunday in Chicago’s Week 12 win over the Giants. Trubisky took two sacks, resulting in a loss of eight yards. The embattled signal-caller cut up New York's secondary for a season-high 278 yards with most of that production (171 yards) coming after halftime. Of course, it wasn't all roses for Trubisky, who mixed in his usual lowlights with two picks including a risky deep ball to Anthony Miller. Alec Ogletree intercepted it in the end zone, spoiling a 12-play drive that took up nearly half the first quarter. Adhering to Drake's "no new friends" mantra, Trubisky kept a close inner circle, zeroing in on go-to receivers Allen Robinson (6-131-1) and Anthony Miller (6-77-0) in Sunday's victory. Trubisky's decision-making is still miles from where it should be, but this was at least an improvement on his previous start, which saw him exit late with a suspicious hip injury against the Rams. At 5-6, the Bears will be fighting for their playoff lives when they take the field Thursday in a Thanksgiving showdown with Detroit.
Detroit Lions Fantasy Spin
Matthew Stafford (back) was listed as a DNP on the Lions' estimated practice report Monday. The Lions didn't actually practice Monday, but they're required to submit an estimated injury report. Stafford seems more likely to miss the remainder of the season than to return anytime soon. Jeff Driskel (hamstring) is also banged up. And yet, the Lions are just one-point underdogs at home against the Bears on Thanksgiving Day.
The over is 14-4 in the Bears’ last 18 road games when playing an opponent with a losing record at home.
The over is 20-7 in the Lions’ last 27 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
I’m going to buck the obscure trends above and take the under. In the Bears’ last 16 games overall, the under has cashed 13 times. In their last seven games on the road, the under is 5-2. The under is also 4-1 in the Bears’ last five games played on Thursday and is 6-2 in their last eight games coming off a win. Lions QB Jeff Driskel surprised Chicago with his semi-mobility two weeks ago, but the Bears will be prepared to slow Detroit down on Thursday. Meanwhile, Matt Patricia’s defense has struggled, but Mitchell Trubisky is no threat. Trubisky and Co. only managed 19 points a week ago at home against a bad Giants defense, even though Chicago’s defense set up the offense with excellent field position following a turnover. The under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings between the Lions and Bears and I see a low-scoring Thanksgiving Day opener as well.
NFL WEEK 13 PREDICTION: BEARS/LIONS UNDER 39