Bucs vs. Falcons ATS Prediction
The Falcons opened as 3-point favorites against the Bucs on Sunday, the line jumped to 4.5 and is now down to 3.5. What’s the best play for bettors when it comes to playing the spread in this NFC South matchup?
263 Tampa Bay Bucs (+3.5) at 264 Atlanta Falcons (-3.5); O/U 52
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, November 24, 2019
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
According to our NFL Public Betting Chart page, the Falcons are drawing 69% of the betting tickets ahead of tonight’s game.
Tampa Bay Bucs Fantasy Spin
Jameis Winston completed 30-of-51 passes for 313 yards, two touchdowns, and four interceptions in Tampa Bay's Week 11 loss to the Saints. It's officially the second time this season Winston's tossed four interceptions. Down 27-17 with 5:07 remaining in the fourth quarter, Winston reared back and gifted S Marcus Williams a 55-yard pick-six to clinch the game for the Saints. Winston's final turnover on the afternoon occurred on Tampa Bay's ensuing drive during a soft-tossed one-yard fade route to Mike Evans that left the receiver audibly yelling at his signal-caller as the two marched off the field. Despite pacing for 4,925 passing yards through 10 games in '19, Winston's current interception rate puts him firmly in line to become the first quarterback to throw 29 picks since Brett Favre did so back in 2005; Eli Manning more recently threw 27 in 2013. Even so, Winston's fantasy production keeps him in play as a low-end QB1 in Week 12 against the Falcons.
Atlanta Falcons Fantasy Spin
Julio Jones (foot) wasn't listed on the Falcons' final injury report Jones is good to go for Sunday's matchup against the Buccaneers. He's failed to score in seven consecutive regular season games in three seasons during his career. His first streak in 2014 was followed by 5-68-1, 10-189-1 and 11-259-1 performances, while Jones overcame last season's infamous drought with 7-121-1, 7-107-1 and 6-118-1 lines. Julio has scored and/or surpassed 100 yards in 11-of-15 career matchups against the Buccaneers. Continue to fire up Jones as a weekly high-end WR1, regardless of the matchup.
The Bucs are 0-6 against the spread in their last six games and have failed to cover the spread in all five of their last five games following a loss of more than 14 points.
The Falcons have failed to cover the spread in nine of their last 11 games when facing an opponent with a losing record and are just 4-10 at the betting window in their last 14 games following a win.
NFL Week 12 Prediction
The Falcons have figured something out on defense over their last 10 quarters. Over that span, they didn’t surrender a touchdown to the Seahawks (two quarters), Saints (four quarters) and Panthers (four quarters). They’ve always had talent on that side of the ball, but the players seemingly went rogue to start the season and the results were disastrous. Now that they’re playing within the system, they’re generating sacks and turnovers and have been excellent inside the red zone. The Bucs, meanwhile, continue to play mistake-prone football and it starts with Winston. The fifth-year quarterback is a turnover waiting to happen and while Tampa is always dangerous thanks to Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, I’ll back the confident Falcons defense that will always get plenty of backing from Matt Ryan and the offense.
NFL WEEK 12 PREDICTION: ATLANTA FALCONS -3.5