Saints vs. Falcons Spread Prediction
The red-hot New Orleans Saints will certainly add to their win column Thursday night when they host the hapless Atlanta Falcons at 8:20 p.m. ET. But will the Saints cover the spread for a 10th consecutive game?
109 Atlanta Falcons at 110 New Orleans Saints
8:20 p.m. ET, Thursday, November 22
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
Public Betting Trends
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetNow.eu, the Saints are 12-point favorites to beat the Falcons. The total, meanwhile, sits at 60 points. As of this writing, 53% of the public betting tickets are on the Saints to cover the point spread.
Matt Ryan completed 24-of-34 passes for 291 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in the Falcons' Week 11 loss to the Cowboys. It was Ryan's first sub-300 yards day since Week 5. The Falcons didn't get into the red zone until the second half as the teams traded field goals the first three quarters. Ryan's interception was a drop by Calvin Ridley that clanged up into the air for Leighton Vander Esch. His one touchdown was a 34-yard strike to Julio Jones down the right sideline to tie the game at 19-19 late in the fourth quarter. Ryan will battle the Saints on Thanksgiving. He had 374 yards and five touchdowns against the Saints in Week 3.
New Orleans Saints
Michael Thomas caught all four of his targets for 92 yards and a touchdown in the Saints' Week 11 win over the Eagles. With Tre’Quan Smith dominating, Thomas was limited to just four targets, but he made the most of them. He got loose for two long gains on each of his two first-half catches, the second of which put him over 1,000 yards for the season. He did even better after the break, coming down with a pinpoint throw from Drew Brees for a 23-yard touchdown, his eighth of the season and fifth in the last five games. By catching all four of his targets, Thomas once again bumped up above a 90 percent catch rate for the year. He will remain a no-doubt WR1 on Thanksgiving against the Falcons.
NFL Betting Trends
The Falcons are 1-4 against the spread in their last five road games and are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.
The Saints are 14-6 against the number in their last 20 divisional games and are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six conference matchups.
There are other betting websites making cases for the underdog Falcons. This is a divisional game between two heated rivals and the Saints at some point will play a close game, so take the points. Atlanta, these other sites note, can score on anyone.
Except for the fact that the Falcons offense struggled the past two weeks. They only scored 16 points on the road against the Browns two Sundays ago and despite returning home last week to play the Cowboys, managed just 19 points in their sixth loss of the season.
Atlanta can’t hang with New Orleans. These two teams played an overtime game earlier this year in Atlanta but since that point, the Saints are playing better defensively and have not slowed down offensively. Sean Payton ran up the score last week against the Eagles and I fully expect him to do so tonight against the Saints’ biggest rival. I wouldn’t be shocked in New Orleans put 50 on the board tonight in an absolute demolishing of Atlanta.
NFL Week 12 Prediction: New Orleans Saints -12