Falcons vs. Saints Total Prediction
NFC South rivals meet on Thanksgiving night when the Atlanta Falcons visit the juggernaut New Orleans Saints at 8:20 p.m. ET. But will the game live up to its shootout hype or will the Falcons fail to bring enough offense to the table for bettors to cash the over?
109 Atlanta Falcons at 110 New Orleans Saints
8:20 p.m. ET, Thursday, November 22
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
Public Betting Trends
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetNow.eu, the Saints are 13-point favorites to beat the Falcons. The total, meanwhile, sits at 59.5 points. As of this writing, 60% of the public betting tickets are on the Saints to cover the point spread.
Matt Ryan completed 24-of-34 passes for 291 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in the Falcons' Week 11 loss to the Cowboys. It was Ryan's first sub-300 yards day since Week 5. The Falcons didn't get into the red zone until the second half as the teams traded field goals the first three quarters. Ryan's interception was a drop by Calvin Ridley that clanged up into the air for Leighton Vander Esch. His one touchdown was a 34-yard strike to Julio Jones down the right sideline to tie the game at 19-19 late in the fourth quarter. Ryan will battle the Saints on Thanksgiving. He had 374 yards and five touchdowns against the Saints in Week 3.
New Orleans Saints
Michael Thomas caught all four of his targets for 92 yards and a touchdown in the Saints' Week 11 win over the Eagles. With Tre’Quan Smith dominating, Thomas was limited to just four targets, but he made the most of them. He got loose for two long gains on each of his two first-half catches, the second of which put him over 1,000 yards for the season. He did even better after the break, coming down with a pinpoint throw from Drew Brees for a 23-yard touchdown, his eighth of the season and fifth in the last five games. By catching all four of his targets, Thomas once again bumped up above a 90 percent catch rate for the year. He will remain a no-doubt WR1 on Thanksgiving against the Falcons.
NFL Betting Trends
The under is 5-2 in the Falcons’ last seven games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
The under is 4-1 in the Saints’ last five games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
When you look at this matchup on the surface, the over is the obvious play. These are two of the best offenses in the NFL and the two teams combined to score over 60 points in their Week 3 meeting in Atlanta. That said, the Saints scored 48 points last Sunday and the game still fell under between they held the Eagles to a single touchdown. The Falcons are also struggling offensively now. It took everything they had to score 19 points last Sunday at home against the Cowboys and were allegoric to the end zone two weeks ago in Cleveland (16). With Atlanta seemingly giving up on its season, I see a New Orleans rout, but a rout that falls just under the total.
NFL Week 12 Prediction: Falcons/Saints under 59.5