Patriots vs. 49ers Prediction
Will the banged-up Patriots cover as a heavy road favorite today when they visit the 49ers at 4:25PM ET?
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetDSI, the 49ers are now 11.5-point home underdogs versus the Patriots while the over/under sits at 51 points. New England opened as a 14-point road favorite but when Rob Gronkowski was ruled out, the line dropped significantly.
The Patriots had their four-game winning streak snapped last Sunday night when they fell 31-24 to the Seahawks as a 7.5-point home favorite. Before that defeat, the Patriots had beaten the Browns 33-13 as a 10-point favorite, the Bengals 35-17 as a 7.5-point favorite, the Steelers 27-16 as a 7.5-point favorite, and the Bills 41-25 as a 5.5-point favorite. The loss to Seattle was New England's first defeat since Tom Brady returned from his four-game suspension.
The 49ers lost for the eighth consecutive game but they did cover as a 13.5-point underdog in a 23-20 loss to the Cardinals in Arizona. The Niners are just 1-7 against the spread in their last eight games overall and are winless at 0-4 against the number in their last four home games. They're also 2-9-1 at the betting window in their last 12 games versus an opponent with a winning record.
OUR PREDICTION: Even without Gronkowski, the Patriots should roll this afternoon in Santa Clara. The 49ers are allowing 31.4 points per game this season, which ranks dead last in the NFL and are also last in total yards allowed (429.7) and rushing yards allowed at 180.4. New England has average numbers defensively this season outside of one category: Points allowed. The Pats rank sixth in the league in points allowed at 18.1. The Niners may move the ball at times today but they'll have trouble scoring.
NFL WEEK 11 PREDICTION: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -11.5