Chiefs vs. Chargers MNF Total Prediction
The Monday Night Football matchup pits division rivals against each other in Mexico City, where the Chargers will host the Chiefs at 8:15 p.m. ET. With the total dropping slightly from 53 down to 52.5, what’s the best play for bettors at that number?
475 Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) at 476 Los Angeles Chargers (+4.5); O/U 52.5
8:15 p.m. ET, Monday, November 18
Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Chiefs are receiving 64% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Spin
Damien Williams (questionable, personal) joined the Chiefs on their flight to Mexico City ahead of Monday's Week 11 matchup with the Chargers. Williams briefly left the Chiefs to address a family matter but is back with the team and should occupy his usual role Monday night in Mexico. Coming off a season-high 24 touches in Week 10, Williams warrants consideration as an RB1 in all formats.
Los Angeles Chargers Fantasy Spin
Melvin Gordon rushed 22 times for 108 yards and a touchdown in the Chargers' Week 10 loss to the Raiders, adding a 25-yard reception. Even with Philip Rivers bumbling through a disastrous night behind nonexistent pass protection, Gordon picked up where he left on last Sunday's hot performance, looking explosive and powerful. He pushed the pile on his three-yard touchdown in the second quarter, and might have had a second score late had he not been briefly forced to exit the game following a helmet-to-helmet hit. Finally looking like the back fantasy players thought they were stashing, Gordon has 11 days to rest up for a date with the Chiefs' run-leaky defense.
NFL Betting Trends
The over is 9-1 in the Chiefs’ last 10 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
The under is 5-1 in the Chargers’ last six games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
This number is right because of the Chiefs’ ability to score in a hurry, but I see good value in the under because of the Chargers. If the Bolts are going to come away with an upset tonight, what does that look like? Well, with both offensive tackles – Russel Okung (groin) and Sam Tevi (knee) - potentially out because of injury, the Chargers have to rely on running back Melvin Gordon. They need to keep Patrick Mahomes and that explosive Kansas City offense off the field as much as possible and the only way to effectively do that is by running right at a Chiefs defense that has struggled defending opponents’ rushing attack all season. If the Chargers are successful, that will mean limited opportunities for the Chiefs’ offense to rack up a bunch of points. And if Kansas City does wind up dragging L.A. into a shootout tonight, the Chargers are ill-equipped to have Philip Rivers put the ball in the air 45-plus times so I won’t worry about the over anyway.
NFL Week 11 Prediction: Chiefs/Chargers UNDER 52.5