Patriots vs. Eagles Total Prediction
A rematch of Super Bowl LII will take place in Philadelphia on Sunday where the Eagles will host the Patriots at 4:25 p.m. ET. With the total sitting at 45 points, will bettors be able to cash the under or is the over the better play?
469 New England Patriots (-3.5) at 470 Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5); O/U 45
4:25 p.m. ET, Sunday, November 17, 2019
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Patriots are receiving 63% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
New England Patriots Fantasy Spin
Tom Brady completed 30-of-46 passes for 285 yards with a touchdown and an interception in Week 9 against the Ravens. The Ravens got out to an early three-score lead, forcing Brady and the Patriots into a pass heavy gamescript. Brady hit Mohamed Sanu for his only touchdown — a four-yard strike that helped rally the Patriots in the first half. Playing in Baltimore on Sunday night was a tough spot for Brady, but he now has just four touchdowns over the last four weeks. Brady has a get-right matchup against the Eagles after New England's Week 10 bye.
Philadelphia Eagles Fantasy Spin
Carson Wentz completed 26-of-39 passes for 239 yards and one score in Philadelphia's Week 9 nail-biting win over the Bears. He added four rushes for 15 yards. Philadelphia's play-calling got them over the hump when it counted but 22 points is still unfathomable on a day the offense ran 78 plays. With DeSean Jackson (abdomen) only available for the Eagles' first drive before exiting, Zach Ertz (9/103/1) was featured prominently in the first one-on-one coverage he's seen in their last two games. Wentz ultimately didn't receive any help from his receivers, seeing Alshon Jeffery (4/36) commit three inexcusable drops. The entirety of Philly's offense should be healthy when the team returns from their Week 10 bye, but Wentz's matchup against the Patriots makes him a QB2 for that one.
NFL Betting Trends
The under is 8-1 in the Patriots’ last nine games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous contest.
The over is 4-1 in the Eagles’ last five games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous contest.
The over is a perfect 4-0 in the last four meetings between these two teams but I like the under on Sunday. The Patriots’ passing game has been firing on all cylinders this season and despite getting trashed by Lamar Jackson and the Ravens two weeks ago, I do expect New England’s defense to bounce back this weekend. The under is 15-6 in the Patriots’ last 21 games overall and is 8-1 in their last nine games coming off a loss of more than 14 points. On the other side, the under is 12-5 in the Eagles’ last 17 home games and is 14-6 in their last 20 games coming off a bye.
NFL Week 11 Prediction: Patriots/Eagles UNDER 45