Jaguars vs. Colts Total Prediction
The over/under for Sunday’s AFC South matchup between the Jaguars and Colts opened at 44 but has been bet down to 43.5. Should bettors follow the line movement and take the under or is the over the better play?
457 Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) at 458 Indianapolis Colts (-2.5); O/U 43.5
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, November 17, 2019
Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Jaguars are receiving 51% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Spin
Jaguars activated QB Nick Foles (clavicle) from injured reserve. Coach Doug Marrone confirmed earlier Tuesday that Foles will slide back in as starter following the Jaguars' Week 10 bye. Despite Gardner Minshew's sometimes-inspired play, the sixth-round rookie was held to one or zero touchdowns in three of his final four starts, and completely melted down in the team's 26-3 loss to the Texans in London. Being paid $50.125 million guaranteed, Foles was always going to be reinstated under center. Willing to take deep shots, his insertion is not bad news for D.J. Chark or Chris Conley.
Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Spin
Jacoby Brissett (knee) is expected to start Week 11 against the Jaguars. Colts coach Frank Reich said Brissett would start as long as he practiced fully, and the quarterback did just that on Wednesday. Barring an unexpected setback, Brissett will take the keys back from Brian Hoyer, who was awful in the Colts' loss to the Dolphins last week. Brissett's return is a welcome sign for Marlon Mack and Indy's pass catchers. The Colts (5-4) need Brissett and T.Y. Hilton healthy down the stretch to make the playoffs.
NFL Betting Trends
The under is 5-0 in the Jaguars’ last five games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
The under is 13-3 in the Colts’ last 16 games coming off a straight up loss.
The under has been highly profitable in this matchup, cashing in seven of the previous six meetings at Lucas Oil Stadium and in four of the last five meetings between these two teams overall. The under is also 4-0 in the Jaguars’ last four divisional matchups and is 13-5 in the Colts’ last 18 AFC South games. The under is also 21-10 in the Colts’ last 31 home games versus a team with a losing road record, is 6-0 in the Jaguars’ last six games versus an opponent with a winning record and is 4-0 in Jacksonville’ last four games coming off a loss.
NFL Week 11 Prediction: Jaguars/Colts UNDER 43.5