Patriots vs. Packers Spread Prediction

New England Patriots vs. Green Bay Packers, 11/4/18 Week 9 Predictions

The Sunday Night Football matchup is fantastic this week, as the New England Patriots host the Green Bay Packers at 8:20 p.m. ET. With the Patriots are laying nearly a touchdown at home, is Aaron Rodgers and the Packers a sound value play as the dog?

Game Snapshot

471 Green Bay Packers at 472 New England Patriots

8:20 p.m. ET, Sunday, November 4

Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts

Public Betting Trends

According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetNow.eu, the Patriots are 5.5-point favorites to beat the Packers. The total, meanwhile, sits at 56.5 points. As of this writing, 51% of the public betting tickets are on the Patriots to cover the point spread.

Green Bay Packers

Geronimo Allison (hamstring, groin) won't play in Week 9 against the Patriots. Allison wasn't expected to play after popping up as doubtful Friday. Whether Randall Cobb (hamstring, questionable) suits up or not, Marquez Valdes-Scantling should still work as the team's No. 2 receiving option behind Davante Adams. Consider MVS a safe WR3 across from Stephen Gilmore's inevitable shadow coverage on Adams.

New England Patriots

Josh Gordon (hamstring) is questionable for Week 9 against the Packers. We'd ignore the questionable tag as Gordon's hamstring hasn't been a problem for weeks. Gordon has been a bit boom or bust since joining the Pats, but in a likely shootout against the Packers on Sunday night, he'll be worthy of WR2 consideration in all formats.

NFL Betting Trends

Green Bay

The Packers are 4-1-1 against the spread in their last six games versus the Patriots and so is the road team.

New England

The Patriots are 13-3 against the spread in their last 16 games versus a team with a losing record.

Prediction

New England has a handful of players questionable tonight, including Gordon, Sony Michel, Rob Gronkowski, Julian Edelman, and Cordarrelle Patterson. That said, most of them practiced on at least a limited practice this week so the injuries aren’t a concern for me with this pick. The Patriots didn’t play their best in Buffalo on Monday night but I actually believe that sets up value for us here. Instead of laying 6 or 6.5, the Pats are only -5.5 because the market saw New England struggle to some degree in Buffalo and the Packers nearly upset the Rams last Sunday in L.A. That said, the Packers were just on the West Coast and now have to travel to the East Coast to play Tom Brady and a Pats team that has been great at home. The Packers also traded safety Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix this week so what message is the front office sending its team? Good luck covering Gronk without a safety with some pass defense skills.

 

NFL Week 9 Prediction: New England Patriots -5.5

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