Packers vs. Chiefs Week 8 Prediction
The Sunday Night Football Matchup has lost some appeal with Patrick Mahomes suffering a knee injury last Thursday in a win over the Broncos. Despite not having Mahomes, will the Chiefs still cover as a home dog versus the Packers?
275 Green Bay Packers (-4.5) at 276 Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5); O/U 47.5
8:20 p.m. ET, Sunday, October 27, 2019
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Packers are receiving 57% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Green Bay Packers Fantasy Spin
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (knee, ankle) wasn't listed on the Packers' final injury report. MVS was a full participant in practice on Wednesday, limited on Thursday and ultimately full again on Friday. He should hopefully be in a better position to play more of a full-time role in Week 8 against the Chiefs. Last week the Packers got all their pass-game options involved, as nobody had more than five targets despite Aaron Rodgers throwing for 429 yards and five touchdowns. Overall, each of Allen Lazard (85% snaps, 4 targets in Week 7), Jake Kumerow (72%, 2), Geronimo Allison (57%, 5), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (33%, 2) and Darrius Shepherd (5%,0) figure to be involved in some capacity.
Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Spin
Coach Andy Reid confirmed that Sammy Watkins (hamstring) is going to play Sunday against the Packers. Both Demarcus Robinson (80% snaps in Week 7) and Tyreek Hill (87%) had featured roles in Cheetah's full-time return to action last week, as Mecole Hardman (48%) was the primary loser when the Chiefs wanted to get Byron Pringle (23%) on the field. Still, the Chiefs feed their speedy second-round rookie enough pop passes and designed targets that he's a bit less dependent on snaps than most WRs. It seems most likely that D-Rob and Pringle lose snaps in Watkins' return. Of course, it's hard to get behind any of these WRs other than Hill as realistic fantasy options with Patrick Mahomes (ankle) sidelined
NFL Betting Trends
The Packers are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games overall and are 4-1 against the number in their last five games when facing an opponent with a winning record.
The Chiefs have covered the spread just three times in their last 10 home games.
This line has moved too much in wake of the Mahomes injury. Matt Moore isn’t some inexperienced quarterback that will be overwhelmed by the situation. He also will benefit from having Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and one of the best play-callers in the game in head coach Andy Reid. The Packers should win, but I love the value we’re getting with the home dog in a prime time spot. A home dog in a prime time spot that isn’t expected to win, no less.
NFL Week 8 Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs +4.5