Patriots vs. Jets MNF Prediction
The Patriots should improve to 7-0 tonight with a win over the host Jets on Monday Night Football at 8:15 p.m. ET. That said, is it too risky for bettors to lay 9.5 points on the Pats to cover?
475 New England Patriots (-9.5) at 476 New York Jets (+9.5); O/U 43
8:15 p.m. ET, Monday, October 21, 2019
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Patriots are receiving 57% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
New England Patriots Fantasy Spin
Josh Gordon (knee) won't suit up for the Patriots' Monday night matchup against the Jets. Undrafted rookie Gunner Olszewski is expected to take Gordon's spot in 3-WR sets. The Patriots bumped Julian Edelman out wide with Phillip Dorsett sidelined last week, as Jakobi Meyers ultimately spent 44-of-56 snaps (79%) in the slot. The Jets defense isn't bad; they're one of just 12 units to allow fewer than 5.5 yards per play this season. We wouldn't bet against the league's highest-scoring offense having too hard of a time putting up points, but this isn't a cake walk -- particularly with Sam Darnold back under center. Meyers is the preferred streamer option over Olszewski due to the former receiver's demonstrated chemistry with Tom Brady that dates back to training camp.
New York Jets Fantasy Spin
Jets WR Demaryius Thomas (hamstring) is questionable for the Jets' Monday night matchup against the Patriots. DT is fully expected to suit up after doing so in each of the past two weeks despite dealing with the same issue. He caught 4-of-4 targets for 62 scoreless yards in his first game with Sam Darnold under center. The 31 year old doesn't hold much of a ceiling as the No. 3 pass-game option (at best) in most matchups, particularly against the league's best defense.
NFL Betting Trends
The Patriots have covered the spread in four of their last five road games and are 20-6 against the number in their last 26 games versus an opponent that owns a losing record.
The Jets are just 4-10-1 against the spread in their last 15 games overall and are 2-7 ATS in their last nine divisional matchups.
The Jets enter play tonight banged-up along their offensive line, which is never a good thing in general, but even worse when a team is facing the dominating defensive unit of the Patriots. I don’t see how Sam Darnold and Co. move the ball much and while I do have some concern when it comes to the Patriots’ offense given that they’re dealing with some injuries at receiver, Tom Brady, James White and Sony Michel should still produce enough offense to get the job tonight in New Jersey. The Pats are just 1-5 against the spread in their last six road games versus the Jets but are 44-19 ATS in their last 63 games overall. They’ve also been profitable on MNF, going 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games played on Monday.
NFL Week 7 Prediction: New England Patriots -9.5