49ers vs. Bills Prediction

NFL Week 6 Predictions: San Francisco 49ers vs. Buffalo Bills 10/16/16

Are the Bills a safe bet to cover as a sizable home favorite today when they host Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers at 1:00PM ET?

According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetDSI, the Bills are 8-point home favorites versus the 49ers while the over/under currently sits at 44.5 points. Buffalo did open as a 7.5-point favorite before the line jumped all the way up to 9. Now it's back down closer to the original number.

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The Niners have been a horrible bet of late, failing to cover in all four of their last four games and going 0-4 against the spread on the road as well. They're also just 2-5 against the number in their last seven games played in the month of October and are 2-8-1 at the betting window in their last 11 games played versus a team with a winning record.

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As for the Bills, they're 5-1 against the spread in their last six home games and are 5-2 at the betting window in their last seven games overall. They're 4-1-1 against the number in their last six games coming off a win and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game as well.

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OUR PREDICTION: The Bills have revitalized their running game under new offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn. In their first two games when they went 0-2 under former OC Greg Roman, they scored just 19.0 points per game and averaged 75.5 yards per game on the ground (3.5 per rush). Since Lynn took over, they're 3-0 and have averaged 26.3 PPG, 178.3 rush yards per game, and 5.9 yards per rush. For the season, LeSean McCoy ranks fourth in rushing and should have a field day versus a San Francisco defense that is allowing 146.8 yards per game on the ground this year, which is 31st in the NFL. I like Buffalo's running game to take the game over and for the Bills to eventually pull away.


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