Bucs vs. Saints NFL Week 5 Prediction
The Saints are 2-0 without Drew Brees and are coming off an impressive victory over the Cowboys last Sunday night. That said, the Bucs own one of the league’s hottest offense and is catching points on Sunday. Is Tampa Bay a live dog?
465 Tampa Bay Bucs (+3) at 466 New England Saints (-3); O/U 45.5
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, October 6, 2019
Superdome, New Orleans, LA
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Saints are receiving 62% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Tampa Bay Bucs Fantasy Spin
Chris Godwin (hip) wasn't listed on the Buccaneers' final injury report. Godwin again has the offense's best matchup from the friendly confines of the slot against P.J. Williams, who was a complete liability in 2018 and has "improved" to work as PFF's No. 61 highest-graded CB among 114 qualified players this season. Continue to treat Godwin as an every-week WR1.
New Orleans Saints Fantasy Spin
Drew Brees (thumb) posted a video on Instagram of him throwing passes. Brees was even shown catching a football, so he's obviously moving along well in his rehab. At the time of surgery, Brees was looking at a six-week timetable, but it's certainly possible that he's moving along slightly ahead of schedule. Brees will likely need to get in a week of practices before returning to game action. In the meantime, Teddy Bridgewater will continue to dink and dunk his way down the field.
NFL Betting Trends
The Bucs are 4-0-1 against the spread in their last five road games and are 5-2 against the number in their last seven games overall.
The Saints are 22-8 against the spread in their last 30 games following an ATS win and are 22-5 at the betting window in their last 27 games played in the month of October.
The Bucs have scored 86 points over the past two weeks, which have included big performances from quarterback Jamies Winston and receivers Godwin and Mike Evans. Despite shutting down Dak Prescott and the Cowboys last week, the Saints have struggled versus the pass, ranking 26th in Football Outsiders’ pass-defense DVOA. Last year, Evans caught six passes for 163 yards and a touchdown on just seven targets with Marcus Lattimore in coverage. Thus, the Bucs should be able to move the ball against this Saints defense. On the other side, Sean Payton clearly doesn’t trust Teddy Bridgewater enough to open up the passing game, instead playing things close to the vest. I could see the Bucs pulling off the outright upset but I’ll take the field goal and put it in my back pocket in what should be a tightly contested game.
NFL Week 5 Prediction: Tampa Bay Bucs +3