Dolphins vs. Bengals Total Prediction
A pair of 3-1 teams will square off in Cincinnati on Sunday at 1:00 p.m. ET when the Bengals host the Miami Dolphins. With the number sitting in the high 40s, is the betting total set too high?
465 Miami Dolphins at 466 Cincinnati Bengals
1:00 p.m. ET, Sunday, October 7
Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio
Public Betting Trends
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetNow.eu, the Bengals are 6-point favorites to beat the Dolphins. The total, meanwhile, sits at 48.5 points. As of this writing, 60% of the public betting tickets are on the Bengals to cover the point spread.
Dolphins SS Reshad Jones (shoulder) is practicing in full for Week 5 against the Bengals. Jones was also listed as a full participant last week before being ruled out against the Patriots, though this time, we expect him to suit up. Despite his two interceptions, the 30-year-old holds PFF's fifth-worst grade among qualified safeties this season.
Joe Mixon (knee) is practicing Thursday. Mixon was limited on Wednesday and could be again today, but he appears on track to return this weekend. It is good news for the Bengals, who appear likely to be without Giovani Bernard (knee). Mixon will be a back-end RB1 if he plays against the Dolphins.
NFL Betting Trends
The under is 4-1 in the Dolphins’ last five games played against an opponent with a winning record.
The over is 5-0 in the Bengals’ last five games overall.
I realize the Bengals and Falcons lit up the scoreboard a week ago but the Dolphins don’t have Atlanta’s explosiveness on offense and both Cincinnati and Miami are getting some defenders back this week. For the Dolphins, it’s safety Jones and Andre Branch, for the Bengals it’s linebacker Vontaze Burfict. If Mixon is indeed back, Cincinnati may opt to keep the ball on the ground, especially with tight end Tyler Eifert out for the season and receiver John Ross out for Week 5. In fact, that should be the game plan given that Miami’s strength defensively is its secondary.
NFL Week 5 Prediction: Dolphins/Bengals under 48.5