Five Super Bowl Value Bets

NFL Week 5: Five Super Bowl Value Plays to Bet Right Now 10/3/17

Which teams are good value bets to win the Super Bowl through four weeks of the NFL season? Here are five to consider.

New England Patriots (6/1)

The Patriots are 2-2 and have a slew of issues on the defensive side of the ball. Through four weeks, New England has faced Alex Smith, Drew Brees, rookie Deshaun Watson and a struggling Cam Newton. Those signal-callers have completed 99-of-142 pass attempts for 1,341 yards, 11 touchdowns and three interceptions. Bill Belichick has a mess on his hands, but there is no better coach in the NFL at making adjustments. At some point the Patriots will mask their issues. That doesn’t mean the defense will be good, but it’s safe to assume that unit is at its lowest point. Plus, it’s not like tom Brady and the offense has been bad. Through four games, Brady’s passer rating is 116.6. At 40, he continues to light it up on a weekly basis. Bottom line: When else are you going to get the Patriots at 6/1 odds to win the Super Bowl? Value city.

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Kansas City Chiefs (9/1)

This one should be obvious, since the Chiefs are the only unbeaten team at 4-0. But there’s more here than just Kansas City’s record. This is the best team that Andy Reid has had in Kansas City. Kareem Hunt has given the Chiefs an added dimension in both the running and passing game and to Reid’s credit, he’s actually using his new star back to sustain drives and milk the clock in the second half. Secondly, with Hunt, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, the Chiefs have a trio of talented, dangerous skill position players. Finally, Alex Smith looks like a different quarterback through four weeks. Granted, Smith could turn back into the conservative signal-caller that has cost this team in the playoffs in years past. But as of right now, the Chiefs are a massive value bet at 9/1 to win the Super Bowl.

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Seattle Seahawks (12/1)

The Seahawks didn’t have an offensive identity through the first 12 quarters of the 2017 season. They haven’t necessarily locked down one yet, but they’re getting closer. Russell Wilson is finally on the move again and over the past game and a half, he has looked like himself following an injury-marred 2016 season. He completed 21-of-26 passes for 295 yards with two touchdowns and a pair of interceptions in the Seahawks’ victory over the Colts last Sunday night, plus added 3 yards on four carries and an addition score on the ground. Even though Seattle’s offensive line is horrendous, a mobile Wilson and a stout defense can cover up the Seahawks’ weaknesses.

Atlanta Falcons (9/1)

You might be thinking to yourself, “Seriously? The Falcons? The same team that cost me money on Sunday when they lost outright to the Bills as an 8-point underdog? Pass.” Fair enough. Still, there’s good reason to back Atlanta moving forward. For starters, Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu, Ricardo Allen, Vic Beasley and Keanu Neal all missed time last week in the loss to Buffalo. That’s five starters that missed either the entire game, or parts of the game and the Falcons were still in position to win in the end. Atlanta still owns one of the most talented rosters in the league and has an opportunity to get healthy this week when it goes on bye. This is not one of Vegas’ darlings, so the Falcons offer  bettors great value.

Denver Broncos (18/1)

This is one of the best values on the board, but bet it now. The Broncos once again have one of, if not the best defense in the league. Trevor Siemian doesn’t scream “Super Bowl-winning quarterback,” but he also isn’t dragging the offense down like he was a year ago. Plus, in fairness, Siemian couldn’t do much behind an offensive line that was leaky in pass protection and didn’t open any holes in the running game. Through four weeks, Denver’s O-line has looked significantly improved than it did a year ago. With Kansas City off to such a hot start, Denver is flying under the radar.

 

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