Buccaneers vs. Bears Total Pick
No matter who is at QB for the Tampa Bay Bucs on Sunday, will the offense struggle when it takes on the heavy pass rush of the Chicago Bears at 1PM ET?
Game Snapshot & Odds
Sunday, September 30, 2018
1PM ET – Soldier Field
Compare odds and from multiple different online sportsbooks and shop for the best lines at our new NFL Odds & Betting Page.
Public Betting Trends
According to oddsmakers at BetNow.eu, the Bears are the favorite at home, as they are getting odds of -3 points against the Bucs. The over/under total for the contest is listed at 46.5 points. The public betting for this game currently has 54 percent going on Tampa on the road. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our NFL Public Betting Page for updated figures on the game.
Winston or Fitz?
The Bucs are coming off a 30-27 loss to the Steelers, but they have scored 27 points in all three games under Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB while Jameis Winston has served his 3-game suspension. Tampa is 2-1 on the season, 2-1 against the spread and the Bucs have hit the over in all three games. They have hit the under in eight straight, including the preseason and last year.
To this point, Tampa is averaging 34 points and 482.7 yards per game on offense. Fitzpatrick has thrown for at least 400 yards in every game and he has 1,230 yards with 11 touchdowns and four interceptions. The team hasn’t committed to a starter for this game as of yet. Mike Evans and DeSean Jackson each have over 300 receiving yards so far and three touchdowns each. The issue for Tampa is on defense, where the Bucs are giving up 30.3 points and 446 yards per game. Their pass defense is allowing 375.3 yards per game.
Bears take NFC North lead
Following a tough loss to the Packers in Green Bay in the season opener, the Bears have beaten the Seahawks and Cardinals the last two weeks to move to 2-1 and sit atop the NFC North. The Bears are 2-1 against the spread and 2-1 with the under, hitting the under in both wins.
The Chicago defense has been the spark behind the team’s early success, allowing 18.3 points and 318.7 yards per game. Their run defense is giving up just 65.3 yards per game. As a unit, the Bears have 14 sacks with eight forced turnovers. Khalil Mack already has four sacks, one INT and three forced fumbles. On offense, Chicago is putting up 21.0 points and 312.7 yards per game. Mitchell Trubisky has struggled somewhat, throwing for just 591 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions. Jordan Howard has 178 rushing yards and a TD.
NFL Betting Trends
The Bucs have hit the over in eight of their last 10 road games and in four straight games in September.
The Bears have hit the under in six of their last seven against NFC opponents and in seven of their last nine home games.
I’d be surprised to see the Bucs go with Winston given the production Fitzpatrick has shown in the first three games. He showed some struggled against the Steelers, and I could see that in this game against the Bears pass rush. Chicago has been able to make plays on defense and a defensive touchdowns is certainly not out of the realm of possibilities in this game. For that reason, I like the over. I think turnovers will lead to short fields and points for the Bears and then Fitzpatrick will air it out when behind and lead to some big plays for the Bucs on offense.
NFL Prediction: Buccaneers/Bears Over 46.5