Cowboys vs. Saints Total Prediction
The Sunday Night Football matchup this weekend is a rematch of a regular season game between playoff teams from 2018. Will the over cash when the Saints host the Cowboys in New Orleans at 8:20 p.m. ET on Sunday night?
275 Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) at 276 New Orleans Saints (+2.5); O/U 47
8:20 p.m. ET, Sunday, September 29, 2019
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Cowboys are receiving 61% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Dallas Cowboys Fantasy Spin
Amari Cooper (ankle) will suit up Sunday night against the Saints. Cooper has helped erase his boom-or-bust label to start the season, posting 6-106-1, 4-44-1 and 6-88-2 lines in Weeks 1-3, respectively. Up next is a shadow date against Marshon Lattimore, who Cooper hung an 8-76-0 line against in Week 13 last season. Lattimore possesses all the tools and athletic ability of a true shut-down CB, but he's hardly been a matchup to avoid. Elite WRs like DeAndre Hopkins (8-111-2), Mike Evans (7-147-1, 4-86-0) and Antonio Brown (14-185-2) have had no problems producing big performances in Lattimore's shadow since 2018.
New Orleans Saints Fantasy Spin
Alvin Kamara rumbled to 69 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries while also supplying nine catches for 92 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets Sunday in the Saints’ Week 3 win over the Seahawks. ProFootballFocus credited him with 11 missed tackles, a truly absurd number, even for a player of Kamara's elite caliber. A handful of those dodged tackles came on a weaving, 29-yard touchdown catch off a screen from Teddy Bridgewater. Kamara showed impeccable balance on the play, somehow staying inbounds on his way to the pylon. That marked Bridgewater's longest completion of the afternoon. It also spelled the end of Kamara's career-long five-game touchdown drought. Kamara later punched in a goal-line touchdown, which came one play after the third-year ball-carrier drew a pass interference call against Seattle linebacker K.J. Wright. Second among running backs in receiving yards (only Austin Ekeler has more), Kamara remains a fantasy Goliath, even with Bridgewater under center. His next assignment will come when the Saints host Dallas on Sunday Night Football in Week 4.
NFL Betting Trends
The over is 8-1 in the Cowboys’ last nine games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
The under is 6-1 in the Saints’ last seven games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
I think the number was set too high for the total. The under is 25-10 in the Cowboys’ last 35 road games and is 5-1 in their last six games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. They shut down Kamara and the Saints’ offense a year ago when New Orleans paid a visit to Dallas and the ‘Boys have the athleticism in their front seven to slow Sean Payton’s offense down again. On the other side, the under is 8-2 in the Saints’ last 10 games versus NFC opponents and with Teddy Bridgewater under center, I think they’ll play things more conservative, leading to a lower-scoring game than oddsmakers are expecting.
NFL Week 4 Prediction: Cowboys/Saints UNDER 47