Bills vs. Vikings Total Prediction
A game with a big spread has a pretty low total today when the Minnesota Vikings host the Buffalo Bills at 1PM ET. Is the total being set too low?
Game Snapshot & Odds
Sunday, September 23, 2018
1PM ET – U.S. Bank Stadium
Compare odds and from multiple different online sportsbooks and shop for the best lines at our new NFL Odds & Betting Page.
Public Betting Trends
According to oddsmakers at BetNow.eu, the Vikings are the heavy favorite at home, as they are getting odds of -16.5 points against the Bills. The over/under total for the contest is listed at 41 points. The public betting for this game currently has 68 percent going on Minnesota at home. This information is subject to change, however, so be sure to check out our NFL Public Betting Page for updated figures on the game.
The Minnesota Vikings are coming off a hard-fought 29-29 tie with the Green Bay Packers last week to start the year at 1-0-1. Minnesota is 1-1 against the spread in the two games thus far while splitting the over/under total. The Viks have hit the under in three of their last five.
The Vikings have looked strong on offense with Kirk Cousins under center. Minnesota is averaging 26.5 points and 426.5 yards per game through two games. Cousins has thrown for 669 yards and six touchdowns with just one interception. Adam Thielen is the leading receiver with 18 catches for 233 yards and a score. The run game is averaging under 100 yards per game so far as Dalvin Cook has struggled to just 78 yards on 26 carries in his return from his knee injury in 2017. He is out for today’s game because of a hamstring injury. Defensively, Minnesota is allowing 22.5 points and 365 yards per game. They have seven sacks and four forced turnovers so far this year. However, defensive end Everson Griffen is out for today’s game with a knee injury.
Bills getting crushed
It’s hard to say anyone has looked worse than Buffalo this season as they have lost 47-3 at Baltimore and 31-20 at home against the Chargers. The Bills have failed to cover in both games while hitting the over in both. They have hit the over in three straight going back to the preseason.
Buffalo has really struggled on offense this year, averaging just 11.5 points and 255 yards per game. The team gave rookie Josh Allen the start last week. He has thrown for 319 yards through the first two games while completing 50 percent of his passes. He has one touchdown and two interceptions. Buffalo hasn’t had much of a run game. Allen is second on the team in rushing with 58 yards while LeSean McCoy has 61. McCoy is questionable to play on Sunday because of a rib injury, but he did travel with the team. On defense, Buffalo is giving up 39 points and 371 yards per game.
NFL Betting Trends
The Vikings have hit the under in four of their last five home games and in 13 of their last 20 Week 3 games.
The Bills have hit the over in five of their last seven games in September and in 16 of their last 23 following a loss.
I expect the Bills to continue to struggle in this game, especially on offense. The Vikings should be able to dominate at home defensively, even without Griffen. The Bills have no playmakers to be competitive. I don’t see Minnesota scoring enough to really threaten the total, as the Vikings would like to get their run game going this week if the game gets out of hand quickly.
NFL Prediction: Bills/Vikings Under 41