Bucs vs. Falcons Prediction

NFL Week 1 Predictions: Tampa Bay Bucs vs. Atlanta Falcons 9/11/16

Will Sunday's matchup between the Bucs and Falcons surprise bettors and fall under the total at 1:00PM ET?

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According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetDSI, the Falcons are 3-point home favorites versus the Bucs while the over/under currently sits at 47.5 points. Neither the side nor the total has moved off the original numbers set by oddsmakers, although Atlanta is down to -2.5 at some books.

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The Bucs head into the 2016 season with a new coach, as former offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter takes over for Lovie Smith. After throwing for 4,042 yards with 22 touchdowns last season, Jameis Winston returns for his sophomore campaign looking to turn Tampa Bay into a sleeper playoff contender this year.

The Falcons return largely the same core that they had a year ago, although they did sign Mohamed Sanu to complement Julio Jones in the passing game. Matt Ryan returns, as does Devonta Freeman, who had a breakout campaign in his second NFL season a year ago. Freeman rushed for 1,056 yards and 11 touchdowns on 265 carries while also catching 73 passes for 578 yards with three additional scores.

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OUR PREDICTION: The Falcons don't light up the scoreboard at home like they used to. The under is a perfect 6-0 in Atlanta's last six home games, is 22-5-1 in the Falcons' last 28 games overall, and is 16-5-1 in their last 22 divisional games. The under is also 7-2 in the Bucs' last nine games versus NFC South opponents, is 15-5 in their last 20 games in Week 1, and is 8-3 in their last 11 games in September. This should wind up being a 23-20 game or thereabouts, falling shy of the total of 47.5.


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