NFL Season Win Total Predictions, 8/8/18 Will Dolphins Win 7 Games?

Dolphins Season Win Total Prediction

The Dolphins have not lost fewer than six games since 2007 but in order for bettors to cash the over on Miami's season win total, the Fins will need to win at least seven games in 2018. Will they accomplish the feat?

Miami Dolphins Betting Odds

According to oddsmakers, the Dolphins' win total for 2018 has been set at 6.5, with the over carrying odds of 2/3 and the under carrying juice of 6/5. The Dolphins are also 100/1 long shots to win the Super Bowl, are 50/1 to win the AFC Championship, and are 9/1 to win the AFC East Division.

View Week 1 NFL Betting Odds

Offseason Additions

The Dolphins added quarterback Brock Osweiler, running back Frank Gore, receivers Danny Amendola and Albert Wilson, as well as guard Josh Sitton, center Daniel Kilgore and traded for defensive end Robert Quinn.

In the draft, Miami selected Alabama safety Minkah Fitzpatrick with the 11th overall pick and took tight end Mike Gesicki of Penn State in the second round. In the third, they tabbed linebacker Jerome Baker out of Ohio State with the 73rd pick and with their two selections in the fourth round, the Dolphins took another tight end in Notre Dame's Durham Smythe and a running back in Arizona State's Kalen Ballage.

Offseason Departures

Long-time backup quarterback Matt Moore is gone, as is 2017 starter Jay Cutler. Receiver Jarvis Landry was traded to the Browns while tight end Julius Thomas and center Mike Pouncey also departed. Defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh also signed with the Rams, while safeties Michael Thomas and Nate Allen left via free agency. Linebacker Lawrence Timmons was released.

Dolphins Season Win Total Prediction

I was actually surprised to look back at the Dolphins' history and see that they haven't lost fewer than six games since their 1-15 record in 2007. While no fan in Miami is celebrating the team's mediocrity, for betting purposes it's helpful to set a baseline. The baseline here is at least six wins so can we find another victory to push the Fins over their season total? I think we can.

The Dolphins benefit from playing in the weakest division in football. While they play the Patriots twice a year, they also get four games against the Jets and Bills. Miami struggled against the AFC East last year but I don't expect that to be the case again this season. Miami will face the NFL's easiest schedule of pass defenses in the first 12 weeks, which is a good sign for a team that is as pass-heavy as the Dolphins are under Adam Gase. Ryan Tannehill is coming off a season-ending injury that cost him all of 2017, but he still provides an upgrade over Cutler.

The Dolphins do have a tough schedule down the stretch but I see them piling up enough victories in the first 14 weeks of the season to eventually get over that 6.5 threshold.

 

NFL Season Win Total Prediction: Miami Dolphins over 6.5