Best SB53 Patriots Player Prop Odds
What are some of the best prop bets involving New England Patriots players head of their clash with the L.A. Rams in Super Bowl 53? We picked the best prop bet for all of the key Patriots ahead of kickoff on Super Bowl Sunday.
101 New England Patriots at 102 Los Angeles Rams
6:30 p.m. ET, Sunday, February 3, 2019
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Public Betting Trends
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetNow.eu, the Patriots are 2.5-point favorites to beat the Rams. The total, meanwhile, sits at 56.5 points. As of this writing, 76% of the public betting tickets are on the Patriots to cover the point spread.
Tom Brady: Total Pass Attempts Over 39.5 (-125)
With the total sitting at 56.5, it’s a good bet that Brady will attempt 40-plus passes on Super Bowl Sunday. Unlike most props, the juice isn’t overly inflated for this bet either. Brady attempted 44 passes versus the Chargers in the Divisional round and 46 passes against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. Going back to last season, he attempted 48 passes versus the Eagles in Super Bowl LII, 38 passes versus the Jaguars in the AFC title and 53 passes versus the Titans in the Divisional round. In fact, in his last 12 postseason games, Brady has attempted at least 40 passes in all but three of those games. In those three games he didn’t attempt at least 40 passes, he did attempt 38 (vs. Jaguars in 2017), 38 (vs. Houston in 2015) and 35 (vs. Indianapolis in 2014) passes, so if he doesn’t go over 40 he’s going to get damn close.
Sony Michel: Total Rushing Yards over 76.5 (-120)
The rookie was a key contributor in both of the Patriots’ wins versus the Chiefs and Chargers, rushing a combined 53 times in those games for 242 yards and five touchdowns. While he only averaged 71.62 rushing yards per game during the regular season, that’s because he only averaged 35.58% of offensive snaps per game. His usage has gone through the roof in the postseason and even though this is an inflated price, the Patriots will need to use him in their power running game to help keep the Rams’ dynamic offense off the field.
James White: Total Receptions over 6 (-170)
In my eyes, there’s a reason why the juice for this prop is so inflated: It’s one of the best player props on the board. White was targeted a whopping 17 times versus the Chargers in the Divisional round. He turned those 17 targets into 15 catches for 97 yards as the Pats routed the Bolts, 41-28. While he was only targeted six times against the Chiefs (White caught four of those passes), the Pats will need to get White heavily involved in the passing game against the Rams in Super Bowl 53. The reason being is that L.A.’s weakness defensively is at linebacker. White against any of the Rams’ linebackers in open space is advantage Patriots.
Rex Burkhead Total Rushing Yards: Under 21.5 (-115)
After he rushed 12 times for 41 yards with two touchdowns in the AFC Championship Game, some bettors might be tempted to play the over on some of Burkhead’s props for Super Bowl Sunday. That said, this under play is related to my prediction for Michel and White. If Michel is the lead back on the ground and White will be targeted repeatedly threw the air, then Burkhead will take a backseat to his teammates on Sunday.
Julian Edelman: Total Receptions over 7.5 (EVEN)
Oddsmakers have inflated this number so much that they’re giving even odds on the vig. It doesn’t matter to me: Edelman will have a big game. He has to, in fact, because the Patriots don’t have anyone else. Josh Gordon is suspended, Rob Gronkowski is a shell of his former self (he was good against the Chiefs but he had a down year overall) and Phillip Dorsett has never popped in New England. Edelman was targeted 10 times in Kansas City and caught seven passes. He was targeted 13 times against the Chargers in the Divisional round and caught nine passes. In his last five playoff games, Edelman caught at least seven passes in all but one of those games (Super Bowl LI versus the Falcons). With the Patriots expected to lean heavily on their short passing game, I like Edelman to land in the 7-to-9-catch range on Sunday.
Chris Hogan Total Receptions: Under 3.5 (-140)
If I believe White and Edelman are going to have big nights in the passing game, that means there won’t be enough to go around for Hogan. He averaged 2.19 receptions per game during the regular season and while he’s caught eight passes on 12 targets in the postseason, he’ll draw plenty of coverage from Aqib Talib and Marcus Peters on the outside. I don’t like his chances of catching more than three passes.
Phillip Dorsett Total Receptions: Under 2.5 (-185)
The same concept that applied for Hogan applies with Dorsett: I love White and Edelman, so I’ll fade Hogan and Dorsett. The former first-round pick of the Colts averaged just 2.00 receptions per game this season. He’ll be quiet again Sunday.
Rob Gronkowski: Total Receiving Yards under 55.5 (Even)
Gronk had a big game against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship. Brady targeted him 11 times and he caught six passes for 79 yards. This will likely lead to bettors backing Gronk on Super Bowl Sunday, but he averaged just 52.46 receiving yards in the regular season. In his last eight games (including the Pats’ two postseason games), Gronk went over 55 yards just three times: at Kansas City in the AFC title game, at Miami when he had 107 receiving yards, and at the Jets in Week 12 when he finished with three catches for 56 yards.