Super Bowl First-Half Spread Prediction
The Patriots are currently a 2.5-point favorite to beat the Rams in Super Bowl 53 and are favored by a half-point in the first half this Sunday. Based on how these two teams have performed in the first half this season, is there value in the first-half line for bettors?
101 New England Patriots at 102 Los Angeles Rams
6:30 p.m. ET, Sunday, February 3, 2019
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
Public Betting Trends
According to oddsmakers from online sports book BetNow.eu, the Patriots are 2.5-point favorites to beat the Rams. At least one Vegas sportsbooks has moved the line to the key number of 3, but the majority of books in Sin City and online have kept the number at 2.5. The total, meanwhile, sits at 56.5 across the board and as of this writing, 77% of the public betting tickets are on the Patriots to cover the point spread.
First Half Lines
The Patriots are -0.5 on the first half line but the juice is -115 on New England in the first half. (The Rams are +0.5 with -105 juice, as opposed to the standard -110.) The Pats are also -130 on the money line for the first half, although all that covers is if the game is tied at halftime, bettors would get their money back (as opposed to losing a tied game at halftime with New England at -0.5). As for the first-half total, the over/under is 27.5, although the juice for the under is -130 while the over is carrying a vig of +110.
Patriots First-Half Performance in 2018
The Patriots were profitable in the first half of games during the regular season, posting a record of 8-6-2 against the spread. They were a perfect 2-0 against the number in the first half of their two playoff games, covering easily as a 3-point favorite in the first half of their 41-28 win over the Chargers in the Divisional round, as well as cashing as a 3-point underdog versus the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game (a game they eventually won 37-31 in overtime).
Rams First-Half Performance in 2018
The Rams weren’t profitable in the first half of games this season, although they weren’t a disaster either. They finished with a first-half record of 8-8 against the spread this season, so when you factor in the juice, they lost bettors money. Like the Patriots, they too covered in the first-half of their Divisional round matchup with the Cowboys as a 4.5-point favorite (they won 30-22), although they failed to cover in the first half versus the Saints in the NFC Championship Game. L.A. was +2.5 but trailed 13-10 at halftime in New Orleans.
Since this is the first time Sean McVay has led the Rams to the Super Bowl, let’s see if we can glean anything from the Patriots’ history when it comes to their first-half wagers on Super Bowl Sunday. Last year, the Pats trailed the eagles 22-12 at halftime versus the Eagles in Super Bowl LII. Although they eventually erased a 28-3 second-half deficit in Super Bowl LII versus the Falcons, they also trailed Atlanta 21-3 heading into halftime.
Going back to Super Bowl XLIX versus the Seahawks, the Pats were tied with Seattle 14-14 at the break. In fact, you’d have to go back to Super Bowl XLVI versus the Giants for the last time the Patriots held a first-half lead in the title game, as they were up 10-0 on New York after two quarters. For those wondering, they were also up 7-3 on the Giants heading into halftime of Super Bowl XLII.
Based on their last three trips to the Super Bowl, I’m going to fade the Patriots in the first half. Bill Belichick is like a boxer who is a skilled technician that allows his opponent to punch himself out early in a fight before learning how to beat him in later rounds. I could see New England is a methodical-based offense, one that likes to play ball-control to keep an opponent on the sideline. It would not surprise me in the least if McVay and Co. came out with a strong game plan, took an early lead before being forced to hang on late in the second half.
Super Bowl 53 First-Half Prediction: L.A. Rams Moneyline +110