Underdogs Cashing in Super Bowls
We're still over a week and change away from Super Bowl LII between the Patriots and Eagles, who will be underdogs heading into Super Bowl Sunday. How have underdogs fared in recent Super Bowls?
According to oddsmakers from online sports book Bovada.lv, the Patriots are 5-point favorites to beat the Eagles, who opened as 6-point underdogs following the Conference Championship games. The total, meanwhile, sits at 48 points. And as of this writing, 60% of betting tickets wagered at online sports books are on Philadelphia.
Getting back to the topic at hand, underdogs have won six of the last 10 Super Bowls and have covered in nine of the last 10 NFL championship games. The Patriots covered as a 3-point favorite over the Falcons last year after erasing a 28-3 third quarter deficit. New England also erased a fourth-quarter deficit versus Seattle in 2014 and covered as a 1-point favorite when Malcolm Butler intercepted Russell Wilson at the goal line in the waning seconds of the game.
That said, the Broncos covered as a 5.5-point underdog against the Panthers in 2015 and the aforementioned Seahawks blew out those same Broncos as a 2.5-point underdog in 2013. The Ravens also covered as a 4-point dog versus the 49ers in 2012 and the Giants upset the Patriots in the 2011 Super Bowl as a 3-point dog.
Nine underdogs have already covered the point spread this postseason, which is the most in a single postseason in the Super Bowl era. No matter which team covers on Super Bowl Sunday, this will be the best against the spread percentage by underdogs in a single postseason in that span according to ESPN Stats & Information.
Also, four of the last five Super Bowls have gone over the total.