NFC Title Game Spread Prediction
The NFC Championship Game will take place at 6:40 p.m. ET tonight in Santa Clara as the 49ers host the Packers. Are the Packers the best play as a large road underdog or is it safe for bettors to lay the points with the Niners?
311 Green Bay Packers (+8) at 312 San Francisco 49ers (-8); o/u 46
6:40 p.m. ET, Sunday, January 19, 2020
Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the 49ers are receiving 51% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Green Bay Packers Fantasy Spin
Aaron Jones rushed 21 times for 62 yards and two touchdowns in the Packers' 28-23, Divisional round win over the Seahawks. Tyler Ervin (two) and Jamaal Williams (one) combined for just three carries. The yards weren't there for Jones, but he did punch in a pair of one-yard touchdown runs in the second quarter to stake the Packers to a 21-3 lead at the break. Jones now has 21 touchdowns on the year. He'll get a stiff test against the Niners in the NFC title game. Jones rushed 13 times for 38 scoreless yards in Week 12 against San Francisco.
San Francisco 49ers Fantasy Spin
49ers TE George Kittle wasn't listed on the team's final injury report. Kittle practiced in full on Thursday and Friday. He's good to go for the 49ers' NFC Championship matchup against the Packers. Kittle is already redefining what the modern TE is capable of achieving, as he set PFF's 10-year record for most yards per route run in 2019 with 3.1. The Packers ranked just 23rd in explosive pass-play rate allowed this season, while the 49ers created big plays in the passing game at the league's single-highest rate.
NFL Betting Trends
The Packers are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven playoff games and 4-1 against the number in their last five road postseason games.
The Niners are 7-19-1 against the spread in their last 27 games as a favorite and are 7-19-1 against the number in their last 27 games as a home favorite.
The Niners opened as a 7-point favorite, quickly moved to -7.5 and on Sunday morning, oddsmakers moved the line again, bumping the spread another half-point to 8. All of this happened as betting tickets went the opposite direction, with the Niners receiving 60% of the betting tickets throughout the week, and are now only catching 51% of the action. That’s an indication of sharp money on the 49ers and a smaller example of reverse line movement.
Regardless, I see two things happening today: the 49ers getting after Aaron Rodgers and the Packers having trouble slowing down San Francisco’s rushing attack. Both factors play into the hands of the 49ers and their ability to cover. Granted, the Packers should hang in the first half and I could see a 13-10 or 10-10 halftime score before things open up in the second half. But regardless, if the Niners are going to win this game, they need to take advantage of a Green Bay run defense that has struggled at times this season. That neutralizes the pass rush of Za’Darius Smith and Preston Smith and opens things up for Jimmy Garoppolo and the play-action passing game that Shanahan likes to feature. Conversely, the Packers struggled to protect Rodgers in that first meeting between these two teams and with Dee Ford healthy again for the Niners, I see a similar scenario playing out tonight.
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME PREDICTION: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -8