Total in NFC Title Game Climbing
The total for Sunday’s NFC Championship Game between Aaron Jones and the Packers and 49ers has climbed over the last 24 hours. After opening at 45, where is the number now and is that an indication of sharp action?
The 49ers will host the Packers at 6:40 p.m. ET from Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, CA for the right to represent the NFC in this year’s Super Bowl. These two teams met in the same location back in Week 12, with the Niners thumping the Packers 37-8 on “Sunday Night Football.” These two teams also met in Green Bay in October of 2018, with the Packers edging out the Niners 33-30 as a 9-point favorite. This will also be the third time that Green Bay and San Francisco have met in the postseason dating back to January of 2013, with the Niners beating the Packers in those two prior playoff games.
San Francisco opened as a 7.5-point favorite and while the line was available at the key number of 7 at some sportsbooks, the spread is now 7.5 at the majority of shops. As previously mentioned, the Niners beat the Packers 37-8 back on November 24, 2019 as a 3-point home favorite, covering by a 26-point margin.
Movement on the Total
So what about the movement on the total? After hitting the board at 45, the over/under has moved to 46.5 at most sportsbooks, including at the MGM Mirage and Westgate Superbook in Vegas. That said, William Hill has the total at 46 while CG Technology is offering one of the lowest numbers at 45.5. What's the reason behind the number moving? Oddsmakers adjust lines based on the market. Sportsbooks may have been getting hit hard by causual bettors hitting the over (which isn't surprising, as public bettors often back the favorites and the over), coupled with a few sharps laying big money on that side. With the number moving a full 1.5 points, chances are oddsmakers were becoming overwhelmed by over money and made a significant adjustment.
The Packers are just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games versus the 49ers while the over is 7-3in the last 10 meetings between these two teams. That said, the under is 4-1 in the Packers’ last five road games and is 6-1 in their last seven games coming off a win. On the other side, the Niners are 5-2-1 at the betting window in their last eight games while the under has cashed in all four of their last four playoff games. The over, however, is 5-2 in San Francisco’s last seven home contests.