Bills vs. Texans Wildcard Prediction
The opener of Wildcard Weekend in the NFL features the No. 4 vs. No. 5 matchup in the AFC as the Texans host the Bills at 4:35 p.m. ET on Saturday. With Houston only laying 2.5 points, are the Texans the play or will the Bills pull off the small upset?
141 Buffalo Bills (+2.5) at 142 Houston Texans (-2.5); O/U 43.5
4:35 p.m. ET, Saturday, January 4, 2020
NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Public Betting Trends
According to our NFL Football Public Betting Chart page, the Bills are receiving 56% of the betting tickets from online sportsbooks.
Buffalo Bills Fantasy Spin
Josh Allen completed 3-of-5 passes for five yards in Week 17 against the Jets. The Bills rested most of their starters, but they let Allen play the first quarter. With the No. 5 seed locked up there was no reason to keep him out there. Allen closes the regular season with 3,089 yards and a 20:9 TD/INT ratio, adding 510 rushing yards and nine TDs on the ground. It's a huge step forward after Allen had more interceptions than touchdowns as a rookie. Allen's red-zone usage and scrambling ability will make him one of the top DFS plays in the Wild Card round.
Houston Texans Fantasy Spin
Bills CB Tre'Davious White doesn't anticipate shadowing DeAndre Hopkins all game in Saturday's Wild Card matchup with Houston. "I don’t think it’s going to be a one-on-one matchup," said White ahead of Saturday's playoff opener. "Whenever he comes lined up to the left side, I’ve got to be on my best game and when he lines up to the right side, Kevin [Johnson] has got to be on his best game. It’s going to take all 11 of us to try to limit him because we know he’s one of the best in the league." A first-time Pro Bowler, White earned PFF's No. 16 coverage grade among cornerbacks this year. Hopkins is capable of beating any corner he comes across, though avoiding White in coverage would obviously improve his DFS prospects for this week's Wild Card slate.
NFL Betting Trends
The Bills are 5-0-2 against the spread in their last seven games as a road underdog, are 8-1-2 against the number in their last 11 road games and have covered in five of their last nine games overall with two pushes.
The Texans are 1-4 against the spread in their last five home games, are 0-3-1 against the number in their last four games as a favorite and failed to cover in 10 of their previous 14 games when facing an opponent with a winning record.
This game is pretty evenly matched so with that being the case, I’m going to side with the better quarterback. Josh Allen has made some big plays for the Bills in wins this season, most notably versus the Steelers in Pittsburgh a few weeks back. That said, he’s not consistent and his accuracy tends to wane from possession to possession. Watson, meanwhile, is a threat both with his arm and his legs and he has a penchant for extending drives with his play-making ability. Buffalo has a stout defense, but I fear the unit will be left on the field too long and Houston has a plethora of weapons, even if Fuller doesn’t suit up. The Texans also had an underrated running game throughout the year and while the Bills’ run defense did improve over the past month-plus of the season, it’s still arguably the unit’s biggest weakness.
NFL Wildcard Weekend Playoff Prediction: Houston Texans -2.5